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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    If Fielder's weight is hindering his offensive abilities, he certainly hasn't shown it lately. He's gotten his overall numbers to a pretty respectible level: .272/.371/.502/.873, 94 RBI, 32 HR Amazingly, with Braun's recent free fall, they are prett even, offensively. Braun's line: .287/.334/.555/.889, 98 RBI, 35 HR Considering position and defensive ability, Braun has easily had the more valuable year overall but I wouldn't have guessed a month ago that Prince had any chance to catch Braun, offensively. Because of my skepticism that an arbitor would properly weigh Prince's terrible defense, I think Prince will do just fine, salary-wise, next year.
  2. rluzinski
    Someone looked at how many innings the average 30 year old (or somewhere around there) pitched if they already had 1000ish inngs pitched in their career. It wasn't good at all. I'm not sure that you can count on any 30 year old pitcher to average 185 innings over their next 4 years. I wouldn't peg Sheets at much less than average though. If a GM want's to properly value any 30 year old starting pitcher,, he might have to use a number less than 175 IP/year. It's funny, had Sheets blown out his arm and missed a season and a half of his recent contract, he would have pitches less overall innings but fans would consider him less injury prone and more valuable. For some, 150 might as well be 0 innings, which makes no sense to me.
  3. rluzinski
    You mean our usually classy fans will boo their team? Crazy!
  4. rluzinski
    I held out a lot longer than most but the Brewers emotionally broke me today. That's not to say that I think the Brewers hate me or aren't trying hard. It's also not to say that I think the Brewers have no chance at making the playoffs. I just don't feel like watching the Brewers being outside, looking in at this point. If they win 4 of their next 6 and give themselves a real shot going into that last series, I'll be watching and cheering. Right now, though, I don't think I'll be able to muster up any disappointment if the Brewers lay an egg in Cincinnati.
  5. rluzinski
    The numbers I listed are over the course of nearly 1/2 a baseball season. I would consider that sample size ample. You can not infer very much with a sample size that minuscule.
  6. rluzinski
    The Brewers are probably still going to win 89ish games. I can't see Melvin being let go, even if the team did tank.
  7. rluzinski
    Even though I hate the Brewers and everyone who posts here, right now... I'm sure I'll be checking back all off season like the insane Brewer fan that I am. PM me your address please, Brian.
  8. rluzinski
    In Baseball Prospectus PECOTA based playoff percentage odds, the Brewers have a higher chance of winning the Wild Card than the Mets, but they average about a game fewer wins in the projections than the Mets. How is that possible? All the Brewers have to do is finish with more wins than either the Mets OR the Phillies. So, both teams have to finish ahead of the Brewers for the Brewers not to make it. Making up numbers, if the Phillies have a 75% chance of finishing ahead of the Brewers and the Mets have 65%, the odds of them both finishing ahead of the Brewers is: .75 x .65 = 49% That would still give the Brewers a 51% chance of making the playoffs. Of course, with only a few games left, these odds can swing widely. With the Brewers loss today, their odds lowered around 15%. If both the Phillies and Mets wins, we probably are looking at a 1 in 4 shot at the playoffs. Frankly, it's amazing that it's even that high at this point.
  9. rluzinski
    Wow. The difference between a win a loss today is about a 20% swing with regard to the odds of the Brewers making it into the post season. Not exactly exciting to hear when the Cubs are around 2:1 favorites.
  10. rluzinski
    From Sheets' post game comments, it doesn't sound like he's ruled out a fast recovery. Something to the effect it being hard to move his elbow one day and perfectly fine 2 days later. That's someone encouraging, considering the circumstances. Beter than "out for season" at least.
  11. rluzinski
    Yo 3 innings, Villy 3. Sounds good to me.
  12. rluzinski
    Only one game behind this pace: http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/crazyfinish.gif Honestly, I randomly simed that after maybe 50 times. The odds are something like 1 in 1,700.
  13. rluzinski
    What do you think? Is this the biggest start of Bush's career? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Personally, I don't think the Brewers NEED this game: 0-1: Cubs 4-2: Reds and Pirates 2-1: Cubs (Harden skips a start and most of the regulars in the lineup sit for the rubber match on Sunday) Brewers finish, 90-72 and force a one game playoff with the Mets. Villy and Defelice combine for 6 IP, 4 ER and the Brewers win a wild one, 6-5 and go to the playoffs for the first time in 73 years!!!! Wait... Sheets might be done for the year?
  14. rluzinski
    Well, it's probably good news that this is a pre-existing injury. It's doubtful that a ligament popped or anything like that. Of course, pitchers can still be shut down for general elbow discomfort though, so we'll have to see how he feels. I'd like to think he'd at least be able to at least make one more start. Who knows, though. And my gosh, 233 pitches over his last 2 starts, with Yost knowing about this? Give me a break! Wow. I had that exact same tingling one game I pitched in 7th or 8th grade Heck, I get that from softball when I'm trying to throw to the plate from the outfield. I think that can be a symptom of a lot of things.
  15. rluzinski
    Even considering the schedule, the Mets project at about 90 wins. Phillies 91. A 7-3 finish probably gives the Crew around an 85% chance of winning the WC outright. 6-4 could tie pretty easily.
  16. rluzinski
    At this point, he could be done for the season or he could be ready for his next start. Like I did earlier in the year when many were saying it was obvious he was done for the season, I'm just going to wait and see.
  17. rluzinski
    He doesn't want to get hurt, but I don't think Sheets tries as hard as I would like to avoid injuries. All these 'fluke' injuries IMO point to the fact that he hasn't kept himself in shape. I'm sorry but isn't that just blind speculation? As if Sheets was ever really out of shape. It just seems odd to say that when we have CC on the team. Alright. I'm going to stop polluting the IGT with the same old, same old. There's a rather important game going on.
  18. rluzinski
    Maybe someone can explain this to me. How come when a starting pitcher is pulled early in the game and the pitching spot is up next inning, the manager doesn't go with a 1 inning reliever? They never do and I don't get it.
  19. rluzinski
    No, but here's a thought...how about we take that $12million, even increase it a little and sign somebody who might consstently make (and finish) 30+ starts. I'm not advocating signing Sheets to a long contract. Too much risk in years 3, 4, etc... The Brewers will NOT be a better team with whatever they do with that $12 mil next year, though. I'd rather have 150 innings a year of 3.25 ERA than 200 innings of a 4.25 ERA. Maybe I am underestimating what you can get for that kind of money, starting pitching wise?
  20. rluzinski
    Nobody said he wants to be hurt. Doesn't change the fact that he usually is. My point was simply that I'll NEVER understanding people getting angry AT a player for getting hurt. Get angry/sad/frustrated at the SITUATION and you'll hear nothing from me. But at the PLAYER? It's like getting mad at someone for getting hit by a car.
  21. rluzinski
    Well, I guess everyone will be happy when Villy takes Sheets' spot in the rotation next year. Won't have to worry about Sheets getting hurt, so that has to make the Brewers better, right? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif
  22. rluzinski
    Is this where we have to get angry at Sheets because he wants to be hurt? Can't we be classier than that?
  23. rluzinski
    Told you. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif
  24. rluzinski
    I don't know Russ. Hart is exhibiting some of the worst plate discipline I've ever seen. He looks like he's never played baseball. His numbers have sucked against righties this season, and he's been bad since the All-Star Break. I think they need to get Nelson in there a little. I don't mean to understate his sucktitude as of late. He's looked downright silly. I just don't think Brad Nelson is someone who I'd consider benching Hart. He's barely even a prospect at this point. The strike out to Font was 94 Look at his 2nd inning velocities, though. He was grimacing a bit as well. I hope it's just my imagination.
  25. rluzinski
    Why is Sheets' fastball 89-90 right now? Making me worried.
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