With The Game on The Line, What Brewer Would You Want Batting?

[rluzinski]

"And, even if you might think that ARod loses a notch as a hitter in pressure situation, and Jeter raises a notch, you have to decide if that is enough to vault Jeter over ARod with the game on the line. If so, then you choose Jeter as your clutch hitter, the guy you want with the game on the line. If not, then you choose ARod as the guy you want with the game on the line, that a substandard ARod is still preferable to an overachieving Jeter."

The Great Clutch Project

[TooLiveBrew]

Prince.

 

Fielder.

 

 

It's not even close for me. In the 'good problem to have' dept., there are several guys I would not feel bad about having up there, for whatever that's worth.

[rluzinski]

Did I make this thread in the stats forum? If I did, I didn't mean to. Can this get moved?

 

It's not even close for me. In the 'good problem to have' dept., there are several guys I would not feel bad about having up there, for whatever that's worth.

 

Fill out the survey!

[BrianShouseForPrez]

Corey Hart.

[Blindcheck]

Ben Sheets. (He is due)

[lcbj68c]

I know I'm probably in the Minority, but I'd have to say Tony Gwynn Jr. This guy battled all those emotions against one of the best closers in the decade with a nasty curve, down two strikes, two outs in the 9th and just raked a triple to give the Brewers their first winning season in 15 years?!!?!?!? That was a lot on his shoulders against a really close friend and mentor to say the least.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

It's interesting that you ask a question like that, Rluz, since you are a hard core stats guy and out to prove that there is no such thing as clutch.

[Rightomac13]

Prince Fielder without a doubt.

[sheetswannabe]

Im not gonna lie, Craig Counsell always has seemed clutch to me...

 

But I would mostly like Kendall...He makes good contact, and lengthens abs

[iluvlamp]

I'll take Braun. He sees the ball and hits the ball. I like that about him. He's fearless. And yes, sometimes he doesn't hit the ball.

[MoneyballMan]

Kendall

[sbrylski]

It's interesting that you ask a question like that, Rluz, since you are a hard core stats guy and out to prove that there is no such thing as clutch.

I think that the point of Tom Tango's survey here is to eventually show that there, indeed, is only a very limited existence of "clutch," or none at all.

 

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

So by getting the fan's perception, that proves it wrong?

[1992casey]

Tuesdays, did you bother to read what's on the other end of the link?

[thablingster]

It depends on what we need.

 

If the bases are loaded I'd be tempted to pick Craig Counsell and his ridiculous career stats with the sacks full.

 

Can I pick Jeff Cirillo? lol

 

If we're just looking at late and close situations I'd go with Prince or Braun as they're the best hitters, even though I don't think of either as clutch.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Tuesdays, did you bother to read what's on the other end of the link?

Yes.

[brewers19]

So, are you just baiting then?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

No. I was asking a question of how a fans perception helps prove clutch wrong. If you asked me who the most clutch player one is on the Brewers I'd go with whoever has the best batting average with RISP over a large sample size. I'm not sure who that is because I dont' have the data in front of me.

[rluzinski]

It's interesting that you ask a question like that, Rluz, since you are a hard core stats guy and out to prove that there is no such thing as clutch.

 

I'm not "out to prove" anything. I don't have some underlying agenda to dismantle the grand ol' game, one regression at a time! I just prefer statistical evidence over conjecture or anecdotal evidence.

 

There have been studies that have found evidence that certain players do have a "clutch" skill. What they found was a pretty small effect so far, however. Tango is a huge fan of the "wisdom of the crowds" theory, though. He has shown that as a group, fans can value defensive skills of individual players pretty well and can also project offensive numbers very well. He's done a lot of work coming up with a way to quantify clutch ABs and he's now giving the fans the chance to identify the players they want up in those high leverage situations. If the fans select an inferior batter over a better one, he's going to conclude that they feel that player is more clutch. Knowing that, he can test to see if that batter had indeed performed better than expected in clutch situations for 2008.

 

You believe in clutch and think some Brewers perform better or worse when the going gets tough? Rank them as such. If you don't, just pick who you think is the best overall hitter. It's up to you.

I'm not sure who that is because I dont' have the data in front of me.

I hear that the internet has that kind of stuff.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Thanks, Rluz, for the explanation. I'll fill it out when I'm bored at work tomorrow.

[logan82]

If I did believe in clutch I would say Counsell or Hall. Since I do not believe in clutch I will go with Fielder.

[endaround]

My problem is that it depends a lot on the situation. If its a man on third two outs, tie game and a single will win it, then Fielder and Gwynn are pretty even. If its no outs, no one on tie game, Fielder and Braun are pretty even.

[TooLiveBrew]

Fill out the survey!

 

Ok, I'll rank and state right off the bat that there really isn't much that separates these guys. Also, this may/may not eerily mirror my ranking of them as hitters in general.

 

 

Weeks

Braun

Hart

Hardy

Cameron

Hall

Gross

Dillon

Kendall

[pitchleague]

if this were the 80s and if he played for the Brewers, I'd say Pat Tabler. That guy was an animal, especially with the bases loaded. Look it up.

 

But for present day, without looking at the survey (I'll do it tomorrow, I need to go to bed), I'd say Prince Fielder. JJ Hardy a close 2nd.

[logan82]

rluzinski wrote:

Fill out the survey!

Ugh. Sorry Russ, I didn't read the thread as carefully as I should have. I will fill out the survey tomorrow.