ESPN.com Top 50 for Next Five Years

[brewcrew00]

Apparently Rob Neyer isn't as high on the Brewers youngsters as we are. Three Brewers land in his top 50, Braun being the highest at 14 and Prince being the lowest at 40. It's really kind of a messed up list in my opinion, but I guess it's all personal opinion in the first place.

 

ESPN.com Top 50 for Next Five Years

[Chio151]

Ah, ESPN....

 

How I loathe thee.

 

--------------------

 

Zimmerman at #6?!

 

Cano at #11!?

 

Longoria at #20!?

 

God knows I would take Ian 'frickin Kinsler over Prince Fielder...

 

One might argue that a 300-pound first baseman doesn't belong on a top 100 list, even if he did hit 50 home runs and is only 23-year-old. For the moment, we're inclined to give the big guy the benefit of the doubt.

 

This list sucks...

[sbrylski]

One might argue that a 300-pound first baseman doesn't belong on a top 100 list, even if he did hit 50 home runs and is only 23-year-old. For the moment, we're inclined to give the big guy the benefit of the doubt.

 

Hoo-what!?

[Chkyhks2and0]

Corey Hart is #30

[brewcrew00]

When I first read through it, I had to go back and read it again, because it seemed too ridiculous to actually be published somewhere.

[theavrock]

Usually lists like this don't get me too riled up but seriously. He gives Cabrera the #3 position even though he rips Fielder for the very same question marks that Cabrera has. What a joke. And Ryan Zimmerman at #7!?!? Don't get me wrong he is a great player but #7?

[sbrylski]

Entirely Subjective Professional Nonsense

[Klements Bratwurst]

I didn't know that Rob Neyer is a tool!

[rluzinski]

You have to keep in mind that he's considering overall value, which includes defense. Braun and Fielder play at easier defensive positions. Value should always be relative to typical replacement player and there are a lot less potential replacements if you are playing one of the harder defensive positions. The offensive bar is set higher for corner outfielders and first basement than for catchers and middle infielders.

 

Braun is the first corner outfielder listed and (I glanced quickly, so correct me if I'm wrong) the only 1B listed before Prince is Pujols. I think Neyer's concern about Prince's weight is pretty silly however. I have no doubt that Prince will keep his weight at a reasonable level over the next 5 seasons.

 

Neter's list might be wrong but it probably has little do with any percieved ESPN bias.

[JoeHova]

Sure, he's taking everything into account, but according to Win Shares (which do that as well and which he helped develop, iirc), Prince was the 15th best player in MLB last year and the 3rd youngest player among the top 25. How that equals him being only the 40th most valuable piece over the next 5 years is hard to see.

 

Actually, I think this list is idiotic. I generally like Neyer but Prince should easily be top 10 on this list. I wonder if he has some sort of personal antipathy towards either Prince or fat guys in general.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Robinson Cano at #11 is pretty whacky.

[rluzinski]

Sure, he's taking everything into account, but according to Win Shares (which do that as well and which he helped develop, iirc), Prince was the 15th best player in MLB last year and the 3rd youngest player among the top 25.

 

5 win shares from a SS is much more valuable than 5 win shares from a 1B, though, so you can't just say that Prince is the 15th most valuable player. Does he deserve to be as low as he is? Probably not.

[Brian the Automator]

I do think people undervalue defense sometimes, but this is pretty ridiculous.

[PlayerHader]

You have to keep in mind that he's considering overall value, which includes defense. Braun and Fielder play at easier defensive positions. Value should always be relative to typical replacement player and there are a lot less potential replacements if you are playing one of the harder defensive positions. The offensive bar is set higher for corner outfielders and first basement than for catchers and middle infielders.

 

Braun is the first corner outfielder listed and (I glanced quickly, so correct me if I'm wrong) the only 1B listed before Prince is Pujols. I think Neyer's concern about Prince's weight is pretty silly however. I have no doubt that Prince will keep his weight at a reasonable level over the next 5 seasons.

 

Neter's list might be wrong but it probably has little do with any percieved ESPN bias.

Not right rluz. Texeira (32) is ahead of Prince and so is Adrian Gonzalez (38). Prince is ahead of both on his Top 5 1B over the next five years list. Figure that one out.

[JoeHova]

Sure, he's taking everything into account, but according to Win Shares (which do that as well and which he helped develop, iirc), Prince was the 15th best player in MLB last year and the 3rd youngest player among the top 25.

 

5 win shares from a SS is much more valuable than 5 win shares from a 1B, though, so you can't just say that Prince is the 15th most valuable player. Does he deserve to be as low as he is? Probably not.

 

Fine, he was tied for 22nd in Win Shares above bench. That's still including players of all ages. 40th most valuable is too much of a stretch and is not justifiable, in my opinion. Especially when he comments about Melky Cabrera that "at 23 figures to get significantly better." Well, why does one 23 year old figure to get significantly better while another will apparently eat himself out of the league in 2 years? There is bias there, we just don't know why.

[brewcrew00]

I think he went to far in trying to make up for the typical "undervaluing" of defense. I could see Braun for example being 14th last season while playing third, but now that he's hidden in LF IMO he's easily a top 7 young player. I just can't wrap my head around how he put Prince down at 40. It's almost criminal.

[RyDogg66]

Ryan Braun Comment:

 

f this were only about hitting, Braun might be No. 1 on our list. But defense counts, too, and Braun offers no value at all in the field.

 

1. Does Neyer know Braun has been moved to LF? (I actually doubt he does)

 

2. Has Neyer seen Braun play LF? (I would bet a fair amount he hasnt)

 

3. Is Neyer saying that Braun's defense on day 1 in LF will be the same as his defense in years 2-5? (It seems he is, if he knows he is even playing LF)

[trwi7]

Melky Cabrera being on this list is a joke. Dustin Pedroia at 24 is a joke. Jhonny Peralta at 21 is a joke but he's there because he's a "power hitting SS" and those are rare but he was ranked 6th among qualified SS in HR's last year and 12th among 25 in OPS.

[RyDogg66]

No. 21 Jhonny Peralta.

 

Hilarity ensues.

 

Comment:

 

Doesn't get a lot of respect, probably because of his superstar teammates and his questionable defense, but power-hitting shortstops are a rarity.

 

Peralta 3 year splits: .272/.342/.442 Average 20 Hrs a year...and dont forget the shoddy defense. Age 25

 

JJ Hardy last year: .277/.323/.463 26 Hrs, average to above average defense: Age 25

[ILuvDaBush]

Also look where he has Russell Martin...over the next five years. Neyer must be the one analyst who I've come across who DOESN'T like Martin. Personally, I'd take Russell the Muscle over Zimmerman AT THIRD! (Well maybe not, but if 3B and C were at equal footing on the spectrum, I would still take Martin) And Holliday over the next five years....AT COORS! But the TOP slight has to be where Jake Peavy ranks on the list, especially when he ends his comments with, "nothing not to like here".....except for his absurdly low opinion of the young award winner with a Petco forcefield.

[endaround]

Pitchers got ranked lower because of injury risk

[RightFieldCoder]

I wonder how quickly Prince jumps to top 5 status when he signs with Boston/New York? I bet the national (read: New England) media won't stop talking about how great he is when that happens.

[rluzinski]

I wonder how quickly Prince jumps to top 5 status when he signs with Boston/New York? I bet the national (read: New England) media won't stop talking about how great he is when that happens.

 

Again, I think Prince was ranked so low because of Neyer's apparent concerns over his weight, not because of where he plays. Neyers is/was a Royals fan. And as I said earlier, I think weight will play no part in hurting Fielder's value over the next 5 years.

 

Here's some sabermetric commentary about this list:

 

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/the_next_5_years/#comments

[joepepsi]

Corey Hart is #30

I am an Orioles fan too. I think Nick Markakis is swell and all that, but Hart has been the better player so far. There is no reason to rank Markakis higher.

 

Lots of Yankees on that list. Very few west of Colorado. 5 of the top 11 play for the Mets or Yankees. Melky Cabrera? Yeah, he's a total stud.

You're better than this Rob.

 

[endaround]

Again pitchers are huge injury risks. Anyone of them could easily miss a full season and therefore won't be one of the most valuable players over the next five seasons.