Jose Abreu

[paul253]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/looking-for-a-match-in-a-jose-abreu-trade.html

 

MLBtradetumors has listed the Brewers as a possible suitor for Abreu. I know we made a big push for him when he came over. Would it make sense to go after him? He’d be a upgrade, a big one Id say, over Thames. But he’s cost a lot and I only controllable for two more years. The Sox would have to take Thames in return then I’d guess it starts with Brinson. So Thames, Brinson, and maybe Ray/Clark and a lesser prospect? Does that get it done? Should we pursue him to help our incredibly inconsistent offense? Plop him in the 4 spot between Braun and Santana.

[nate82]

I would do Harrison, Thames, and F. Peralta for Abreu. I am not sure if that will be enough but the White Sox were not all that impressed with Brinson last year when discussing Quintana with the Brewers so maybe they will rather take Harrison over Brinson. I don't believe you are going to be able to get away with not trading a pitching prospect in order to get Abreu. The only player who would be off the list for Abreu to me pitching wise would be Burnes.

 

Maybe you could get Abreu for Ortiz, Harrison, and Thames but that might be wishful thinking also.

[adambr2]

I would do Harrison, Thames, and F. Peralta for Abreu. I am not sure if that will be enough but the White Sox were not all that impressed with Brinson last year when discussing Quintana with the Brewers so maybe they will rather take Harrison over Brinson. I don't believe you are going to be able to get away with not trading a pitching prospect in order to get Abreu. The only player who would be off the list for Abreu to me pitching wise would be Burnes.

 

Maybe you could get Abreu for Ortiz, Harrison, and Thames but that might be wishful thinking also.

 

Don't remember that at all that they were not that impressed with Brinson, other than they preferred Jimenez over Brinson, which is totally understandable, and weren't going to do a deal with us without Hader, which is also understandable.

 

I highly doubt they value Harrison over Brinson.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

If Abreu is truly available this should be a move Stearns goes hard after! .300 hitter with 30+ homers, 4+ WAR every year. That’d help our offense emmensly! As much as I like Shaw, we can do better for our clean up hitter. Let’s get this hot stove heated up!

[nate82]

I would do Harrison, Thames, and F. Peralta for Abreu. I am not sure if that will be enough but the White Sox were not all that impressed with Brinson last year when discussing Quintana with the Brewers so maybe they will rather take Harrison over Brinson. I don't believe you are going to be able to get away with not trading a pitching prospect in order to get Abreu. The only player who would be off the list for Abreu to me pitching wise would be Burnes.

 

Maybe you could get Abreu for Ortiz, Harrison, and Thames but that might be wishful thinking also.

 

Don't remember that at all that they were not that impressed with Brinson, other than they preferred Jimenez over Brinson, which is totally understandable, and weren't going to do a deal with us without Hader, which is also understandable.

 

I highly doubt they value Harrison over Brinson.

 

From the people I have talked to the White Sox were not impressed with Brinson and still are not all that impressed with Brinson.

[paul253]

All the better for us then. I’d hate to give up Harrison but with both Brinson and Phillips, along with Clark (Grisham?) and Ray who still have potential, CF is still a position of strength. Thames/Harrison/Ortiz/Medeiros?

[yfinn6]

I didn't post this in the thread about prospects you don't want to give up, but Harrison is on that list for me. That being said, if the Brewers are going to trade him, I feel like his value is only going to increase. While he had a breakout 2017, I am willing to bet that he'll continue that trajectory in 2018. If he does, and he IS going to be moved, I'd hope it's for a pitcher. I do like the idea of Abreu at 1B.

[endaround]

Abreu would be like a 1 win improvement or so over Thames/RHer (3.5 to 4 wins vs 2.5 to 3 wins). Abreu's projected arbitration amount for 2018 is $17.9 million. So that's $12 million for a 1 win improvement. But now you have to add in that fact that Abreu has about $20- 25 million in excess value over his contract which needs to be paid off with prospects. It becomes a very large cost for a 1, 1.5 win improvement. Better to focus on improving below average positions first (2B, SS).

[JosephC]

Abreu in 2017 = .304/.354/.552/.906, 33 HR, 102 RBI

Brewer first basemen in 2017 = .268/.360/.544/.905, 41 HR, 96 RBI

[pacopete4]

I guess it comes down to what player the Brewers really think Thames is. I like Abreu because he probably is consistent but he’s definitely not young or controllable.

[brewcrewdue80]

Abreu in 2017 = .304/.354/.552/.906, 33 HR, 102 RBI

Brewer first basemen in 2017 = .268/.360/.544/.905, 41 HR, 96 RBI

 

This. I think we're good enough at 1b. Thames/Aguilar are far better than Sea Bass and Yuni B. They aren't replacement level 1b. I think pushing this idea is because there's hate on Thames because the fact he'll see time in the OF, and the haters don't want that. Thames isn't as bad at 1b as posted here, it's the OF that he's dinged on so much. Hopefully when you add Phillips and Brinson if Broxton doesn't recover, you don't need a Thames or Perez in the OF. Let Thames/Aguilar be a great platoon/PH bats off the bench.

[Warning Track Power]

Pass. For all the reasons others have mentioned. 1B is nowhere near as big of an issue as other positions. Additionally, with Braun going nowhere, I would rather explore him at 1B before dealing the prospects necessary to acquire Abreu.

[yfinn6]

Abreu in 2017 = .304/.354/.552/.906, 33 HR, 102 RBI

Brewer first basemen in 2017 = .268/.360/.544/.905, 41 HR, 96 RBI

 

This. I think we're good enough at 1b. Thames/Aguilar are far better than Sea Bass and Yuni B. They aren't replacement level 1b. I think pushing this idea is because there's hate on Thames because the fact he'll see time in the OF, and the haters don't want that. Thames isn't as bad at 1b as posted here, it's the OF that he's dinged on so much. Hopefully when you add Phillips and Brinson if Broxton doesn't recover, you don't need a Thames or Perez in the OF. Let Thames/Aguilar be a great platoon/PH bats off the bench.

 

Aside from the silly "hater" talk, I've read the bolded sentence five times and still have no clue what it's supposed to mean or be in reference to.

[Bnowell4evr]

This seems like a foolish way to use resources for a minimal gain in OPS. Eric Thames had a higher OBP a year ago than Abreu who hasn't been that good at reaching base for 3 years running.

 

I'd stay well away from any RH 1st basemen.

[brewcrewdue80]

Abreu in 2017 = .304/.354/.552/.906, 33 HR, 102 RBI

Brewer first basemen in 2017 = .268/.360/.544/.905, 41 HR, 96 RBI

 

This. I think we're good enough at 1b. Thames/Aguilar are far better than Sea Bass and Yuni B. They aren't replacement level 1b. I think pushing this idea is because there's hate on Thames because the fact he'll see time in the OF, and the haters don't want that. Thames isn't as bad at 1b as posted here, it's the OF that he's dinged on so much. Hopefully when you add Phillips and Brinson if Broxton doesn't recover, you don't need a Thames or Perez in the OF. Let Thames/Aguilar be a great platoon/PH bats off the bench.

 

Aside from the silly "hater" talk, I've read the bolded sentence five times and still have no clue what it's supposed to mean or be in reference to.

 

 

IGT's down the stretch, other posts in Rumors, or in Major Laegue about future roster. Just down the stretch in his season a number seemed to sour on him, defense was knocked a number of times. He was more productive than expectations, and yet down the stretch youdthink he was every bit worse than Chris Carter.

[paul253]

Eric Thames also cooled off drastically in the second half. I think his numbers are skewed by his ridiculously hot start. Jose Abreu is a better hitter than Thames. I can understand people not wanting to use up resources on a position we don’t really need help at but I do think Abreu would be an upgrade for sure. I’m concerned about a pretty significant regression from Thames next season.

 

Eric Thames had a higher OBP a year ago than Abreu who hasn't been that good at reaching base for 3 years running

 

His OBP was .005 points lower than Thames. And his career OBP is exactly the same as Thames OBP was this year. If he’s no good at getting on base then neither is Thames.

 

Abreu is also 4 years younger than Thames.

[endaround]

Eric Thames also cooled off drastically in the second half. I think his numbers are skewed by his ridiculously hot start. Jose Abreu is a better hitter than Thames. I can understand people not wanting to use up resources on a position we don’t really need help at but I do think Abreu would be an upgrade for sure. I’m concerned about a pretty significant regression from Thames next season.

 

Eric Thames had a higher OBP a year ago than Abreu who hasn't been that good at reaching base for 3 years running

 

His OBP was .005 points lower than Thames. And his career OBP is exactly the same as Thames OBP was this year. If he’s no good at getting on base then neither is Thames.

 

Abreu is also 4 years younger than Thames.

 

Abreu is 2 months younger than Thames

[rickh150]

Count me in on getting Abreu....

- a bit more of a sure thing at 1B

- big upgrade with BA, and we need it with runners on base

- golden if one of the 1B is included and not a great prospect(s) included

[paul253]

Abreu is 2 months younger than Thames

 

You’re right. I misread his debut age as his currnt age.

[Bnowell4evr]

Eric Thames also cooled off drastically in the second half. I think his numbers are skewed by his ridiculously hot start. Jose Abreu is a better hitter than Thames. I can understand people not wanting to use up resources on a position we don’t really need help at but I do think Abreu would be an upgrade for sure. I’m concerned about a pretty significant regression from Thames next season.

 

Eric Thames had a higher OBP a year ago than Abreu who hasn't been that good at reaching base for 3 years running

 

His OBP was .005 points lower than Thames. And his career OBP is exactly the same as Thames OBP was this year. If he’s no good at getting on base then neither is Thames.

 

Abreu is also 4 years younger than Thames.

 

I should have said that Abreu isn't good at taking walks. His walk percentage is 6.5% in his career so his OBP is completely BA dependent. If his batting average drops .020 his value tanks. If I'm going to invest in a RH first basemen he better be a HOF caliber player like Frank Thomas, Albert Pujols or Paul Goldschmidt who are/were perennial .400 OBP + .500 slugging type.

 

I'm a big believer in balanced lineups and 1st base is the easiest position to stick a quality LH bat.

If we make a trade for Abreu and Brett Phillips doesn't beat out Broxton or Brinson then you're looking at a lineup with Shaw and Villar/Sogard as you're only LH starters. RH pitching will eat us up just like it did in the Doug Melvin days.

[Bnowell4evr]

2017

Thames vs RHP - .265/.382/.551/.933

Aguilar vs LHP - .301/.365/.524/.889

 

Abreu vs RHP - .288/.339/.528/.866

Abreu vs LHP - .356/.402/.631/1.033

[brewcrewdue80]

2017

Thames vs RHP - .265/.382/.551/.933

Aguilar vs LHP - .301/.365/.524/.889

 

Abreu vs RHP - .288/.339/.528/.866

Abreu vs LHP - .356/.402/.631/1.033

 

 

It's basically agreed Abreu is better than the platoon mix of Thames/Aguilar. Now, is the little improvement really worth the cost?

 

Nate Said:

Maybe you could get Abreu for Ortiz, Harrison, and Thames but that might be wishful thinking also.

 

This idea, removes the value Aguilar has to the team. So then what? you play him in AAA? don't have a backup to Abreu I assume? Perez in emergencies?

 

You give up two of the highest ceiling prospects from the minors and it's for the 1-1.5WAR gain at 1b position? You have control of Thames and Aguilar for the same 3 years Abreu would come with in control....So you're estimating a 3-4.5WAR gain over the current at the cost of those two?

 

If you are going to use those high ceiling prospects, use them for a big improvement and not something so minor.

[JohnBriggs12]

Eric Thames also cooled off drastically in the second half. I think his numbers are skewed by his ridiculously hot start. Jose Abreu is a better hitter than Thames. I can understand people not wanting to use up resources on a position we don’t really need help at but I do think Abreu would be an upgrade for sure. I’m concerned about a pretty significant regression from Thames next season.

 

Eric Thames had a higher OBP a year ago than Abreu who hasn't been that good at reaching base for 3 years running

 

His OBP was .005 points lower than Thames. And his career OBP is exactly the same as Thames OBP was this year. If he’s no good at getting on base then neither is Thames.

 

Abreu is also 4 years younger than Thames.

 

Abreu is actually just 2 months younger than Thames. But your point about OBP is correct. A slugger's job isn't to get on base anyway, it's to drive in the guys who are on base. Part of Thames on base ability is that he struggles with putting balls in play, and thus naturally gets deeper in counts Abreu has reached 100 RBI in every season, all on some weak White Sox teams. Thames hit .180 with RISP. That doesn't get it done. Abreu would be a clear upgrade. I'd offer them Thames, Broxton and one prospect not in the Brewer's top 5, and another outside the top 25.

[Bnowell4evr]

Eric Thames also cooled off drastically in the second half. I think his numbers are skewed by his ridiculously hot start. Jose Abreu is a better hitter than Thames. I can understand people not wanting to use up resources on a position we don’t really need help at but I do think Abreu would be an upgrade for sure. I’m concerned about a pretty significant regression from Thames next season.

 

Eric Thames had a higher OBP a year ago than Abreu who hasn't been that good at reaching base for 3 years running

 

His OBP was .005 points lower than Thames. And his career OBP is exactly the same as Thames OBP was this year. If he’s no good at getting on base then neither is Thames.

 

Abreu is also 4 years younger than Thames.

 

Abreu is actually just 2 months younger than Thames. But your point about OBP is correct. A slugger's job isn't to get on base anyway, it's to drive in the guys who are on base. Part of Thames on base ability is that he struggles with putting balls in play, and thus naturally gets deeper in counts Abreu has reached 100 RBI in every season, all on some weak White Sox teams. Thames hit .180 with RISP. That doesn't get it done. Abreu would be a clear upgrade. I'd offer them Thames, Broxton and one prospect not in the Brewer's top 5, and another outside the top 25.

 

Every hitters job is to reach base without making an out.

[sheetskout]

Every hitters job is to reach base without making an out.

 

This is not necessarily true.