Alex Cobb (Part 1)

[TJseven7]

No one is offering Cobb 5 years.

 

Fwiw steamer has him at 8-8 4.43 ERA in 135 innings.

 

They have Chase Anderson at 9-11 and a 4.76. Archer is at 12-11 with a 3.49. Those projections amount to a hill of beans.

 

I think the point is Cobb is just a guy who no one would realistically see him as an anchor to a rotation (4.16 FIP) so a 5 year deal isn't something one would expect.

 

I'd definitely take him as our 3/4 but never at a big money long term deal. Too many arm problems and not enough upside to see him beyond a nice pitcher to have.

 

Well I can see that if you look at last year for what it was but if you look pre TJ and realize he couldn't get the same action from his best pitch that he throws 35% of the time the picture looks a lot more interesting.

 

3.42...3.61

4.03....3.67

2.76....3.36

2.87....3.23

 

Yeah that's not a 3. If Chacin couldn't throw his slider he'd be lucky to get wade miley offers. Cobb didn't have his ace pitch last year and was still a 2-3. He stayed alive due to his sinking FB and curve. That's his 2nd and 3rd offering.

 

Cobb gives this team a chance at a big 3 who all can flirt with ace territory. Anderson Nelson Cobb have all shown TOR segments in their career.

[Boomer5]

Those years were 2012-2014.

 

He is 100% a 3/4 in 2018 until he proves otherwise.

[TJseven7]

He couldn't command one of the most devastating pitches in the game. It has a nickname... the thing... the last thing to come back following TJ is your touch on breaking stuff.

 

Proving otherwise... his season without it wasn't a 3/4. He was a 2. Go check starting rotation (stats) on the majors page and for reference look at the numbers dive Mr Allen was kind enough to do.

 

Cobb last year would have come in in the top 45.

[pacopete4]

Who cares what we classify him as in our rotation. He gets people out at a pretty good clip. He can help us win ball games. Hopefully, the deal we make is a good one and it pays off for this franchise.

[tmwiese55]

If we ever have a 1 or 2 to go with the 3/4 that you are assuming Cobb to be, that player will very likely come up on a rookie contract/pre-arby contract. There are very few pitchers that I see that we could trade for that would come at a high salary cost. And if we aren't getting one now, we never are getting an Arrieta or even better "1 or 2" type in free agency.

 

 

 

This is a good point. I've thought a similar thing as everyone has argued about TOR over and over. We really can't acquire this true Ace person in any reasonable way and keep long term. So we're kind of left filling out a deep rotation with good but not great Ps. Teams like that can still win.

[TJseven7]

Except he's finding the control on his ace pitch away from being a TOR.

[bill hAll Star]

If we ever have a 1 or 2 to go with the 3/4 that you are assuming Cobb to be, that player will very likely come up on a rookie contract/pre-arby contract. There are very few pitchers that I see that we could trade for that would come at a high salary cost. And if we aren't getting one now, we never are getting an Arrieta or even better "1 or 2" type in free agency.

 

 

 

This is a good point. I've thought a similar thing as everyone has argued about TOR over and over. We really can't acquire this person in any reasonable way and keep long term. So we're kind of left filling out a deep rotation with good but not great Ps. Teams like that can still win.

 

Yes, and if we're going to trade for an ace, it likely will be on a small or arbitration contract (either Archer or Aaron Nola or some other young-ish pitcher) just by the nature of the fact that anyone signed in the Scherzer/Verlander stratosphere will never be available to us by any means unless we draft one.

 

The only thing that getting Cobb does is kills any opportunity to do something like absorb most of Greinke's contract. I'd bet Mark would acquire 2 years, $40 million of an ace on top of already having Cobb if the opportunity was perfect.

[Patrick425]

All the speculation is exciting, the Brewers could use another starter, and it's fun to see them doing all this wheeling and dealing. However, it sounds like Cobb wants around $20M/yr for 4-6 years. It does seem a bit steep for a guy that has never thrown more than 180 innings in a season. Also, the projections on Baseball reference have him at a 4.20 ERA and 1.29 Whip. If that ends up being anywhere close to accurate, it seems rather pedestrian for a pitcher making $20M/yr.

[torts]

4.20 ERA sounds like a Brewers Free Agent SP signing, so its as good as done in my book!

[HighHeat19]

4.20 ERA sounds like a Brewers Free Agent SP signing, so its as good as done in my book!

 

I love reading anything from Torts! Greatest one liners ever. Will have to watch a game with the man.

[Patrick425]

Not to mention. Tropicana = Very pitcher friendly. Miller Park = Very hitter friendly.

[jjfanec]

Cobb just fits so well. Not as high cost with very good upside if he regains his breaking stuff. Allows us to keep Santana and a very good lineup. It is all an if but if Nelson comes back like last year a rotation of Anderson, Cobb, Nelson, Davies and Chacin is very solid. No weak link and you have Woodward there if anyone slips up

[TURBO]

Cobb just fits so well. Not as high cost with very good upside if he regains his breaking stuff. Allows us to keep Santana and a very good lineup. It is all an if but if Nelson comes back like last year a rotation of Anderson, Cobb, Nelson, Davies and Chacin is very solid. No weak link and you have Woodward there if anyone slips up

 

ummmm

[jjfanec]

Not to mention. Tropicana = Very pitcher friendly. Miller Park = Very hitter friendly.

 

Not to mention pitching in the AL East with a dh compared to pitching in the NL Central with a pitchers spot batting

[HighHeat19]

Not to mention. Tropicana = Very pitcher friendly. Miller Park = Very hitter friendly.

 

American League East = Extremely Hitter friendly.

[bill hAll Star]

Not to mention. Tropicana = Very pitcher friendly. Miller Park = Very hitter friendly.

 

Tradeoff of not facing a DH and not having to pitch ~20 games in the other AL East parks makes it closer to a wash.

[DR28]

HH, deal happen this week?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Not to mention. Tropicana = Very pitcher friendly. Miller Park = Very hitter friendly.

 

American League East = Extremely Hitter friendly.

 

Wouldn't surprise me if moving from the AL East to the NL Central carves half a run off a pitcher's ERA.

[jonescm128]

Who cares what we classify him as in our rotation. He gets people out at a pretty good clip. He can help us win ball games. Hopefully, the deal we make is a good one and it pays off for this franchise.

 

Exactly. Tired of hearing about 1's, 2's, and 3's.

[jjfanec]

Who cares what we classify him as in our rotation. He gets people out at a pretty good clip. He can help us win ball games. Hopefully, the deal we make is a good one and it pays off for this franchise.

 

Exactly. Tired of hearing about 1's, 2's, and 3's.

 

Especially because by the definition of most here there are like 6 number 1s in baseball. I posted a link a while back that graded pitching using a ton of different criteria and if the Brewers we're to sign Cobb they would have 4 pitchers in their top 32 from last year and Chacin at 56.

[DR28]

Anderson

Cobb

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

 

Oh hell yes!! Please keep Santana and move Braun to 1B!

 

Adding Walker yet, would be absolutely ideal!

[gebc1997]

7 starts in NL ballparks in his career, 46.2 innings, 24 hits, 7 runs, 8 walks, 38 ks

[Boomer5]

Regardless of his spot in a rotation, the point is he is a guy who was last a good pitcher in 2014. His most recent year had a 4.16 FIP. He is not a workhorse.

 

In other words what is is a nice 30 year old pitcher with a history of injuries. What he isn't is a 5 year big money pitcher.

[TJseven7]

Away era 2013 and 2014

2.70

3.14

[Patrick425]

Not to mention. Tropicana = Very pitcher friendly. Miller Park = Very hitter friendly.

 

American League East = Extremely Hitter friendly.

 

Wouldn't surprise me if moving from the AL East to the NL Central carves half a run off a pitcher's ERA.

 

 

Possibly. Still would like to have seen him have at least a few seasons of 200+ innings. I'm not arguing that he wouldn't strengthen the Brewers pitching staff, but I think I would be more comfortable about it if he signs somewhere closer to $15M/yr than I would if it's close to $20M/yr. Since, from what I understand, he turned down a $17.5M qualifying offer. I can't see it being less than $18M/yr. A little too much imho.