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Eligible for the Rule 5 Draft - Fall 2018


Brewer Fanatic Staff

The list below does not include those eligible for minor league free agency, which is linked separately here.

 

Alphabetical within current level.

 

COLORADO SPRINGS:

 

RHP Tristan Archer

RHP Bubba Derby

C Tuffy Gosewisch

RHP Deolis Guerra

INF Jake Hager

UT Nate Orf

LHP Quintin-Torres-Costa

RHP Dan Reynolds

 

BILOXI:

 

IF Blake Allemand

SS Luis Aviles, Jr.

1B Jake Gatewood

RHP Preston Gainey

RHP Nate Griep

RHP Conor Harber

LHP Brad Kuntz

C Carlos Leal

C Max McDowell

RHP Jon Olczak

RHP Cody Ponce

RHP Tyler Spurlin

OF Dillon Thomas

 

CAROLINA:

 

RHP Rodrigo Benoit

RHP Phil Bickford

RHP Nattino Diplan

LHP Jake Drossner

RHP Alec Kenilvort

LHP Nathan Kirby

IF Tucker Neuhaus

RHP Jorge Ortega

LHP Drake Owenby

LHP Angel Perdomo

RHP Wuilder Rodriguez

OF Joantgel Segovia

LHP Christian Trent

RHP Josh Uhen

RHP Devin Williams

 

WISCONSIN:

 

C Jeyner Baez

OF Jay Feliciano

RHP Nelson Hernandez

RHP Carlos Herrera

RHP Christian Meister

RHP Michael Petersen

OF Nic Pierre

 

HELENA / MARYVALE:

 

RHP Jesus Brea

RHP Carlos Luna

IF Julio Mendez

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Definites to protect:

Torres-Costa

Medeiros

Ortiz

Supak

 

Maybe:

Derby

Gatewood

Perrin

Ponce

Stokes

Bickford

Kirby

Segovia

D Williams

Lara

 

Below Bickford on the list above, the players have value, but would any MLB team commit to putting them on the 25-man roster for a full season?

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I agree with the first three, but is Supak worth protecting? Maybe I’ve overlooked him, but he’s not someone I would consider taking. Of Kirby, Bickford, Ponce, and Gatewood, I’d imagine teams would only be interested in Bickford’s stuff enough to stash for an entire season. With big 2018 seasons, all could be in play for that year’s rule 5 draft
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Not sure how many spots will be open, but if I were to force rank them - with the caveat that it's easier to hide pitchers, especially lefties, than position players on a 25-man roster:

 

Ortiz

Medeiros

Supak

Kirby

QTC (this is the end of the "must-protect" list)

Ponce

D. Williams

Derby

Stokes

Bickford

Perrin

Gatewood

Harber

 

No way they'll have that many spaces available. Would be nice to package a few of the borderline guys in a trade; better than losing them. With so many bad teams this year I think a few more Rule 5 guys will be kept next year than usual.

 

If I were DS I'd offer two of anyone on that list between Derby and Harber in front of the Rays and see if that could rent Ramos.

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Yeah. I'm reluctant to trade prospects for rentals but we can't keep all these guys. At best, I think we could open up 5 spots to protect players.

 

The players I would keep: Ortiz, Medeiros, Kirby, QTC, Supak

Maybe's: Ponce, Bickford, D. Williams, Derby, Stokes, Perrin, Gatewood, J.Segovia

 

We will lose many of these if they are not protected.

 

Hopefully Stearns can make a trade using quantity vs. quality with a focus on reducing the 40 man crunch. He could also trade some of J. Lopez, Barnes, Broxton, Diplan, Houser, Phillips, Santana, or Woodruff without hurting the major league team much.

 

I'd hate to lose Hiura, Burnes and F. Peralta but other than that I'm open to trading any of the above.

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I can’t think of one reason why we would even consider Gilbert Lara. He has been complete trash and has shown little to nothing. Even past that he would never last an entire year on an MLB roster. He is closer to flat out being released than sniffing the 40 man roster.
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There are four obvious spots, replacing Orf, Asher, Kratz, and possibly Wilkerson. Stearns likes having a 40-man spot or two for general flexibility, and what happens if they need a third MLB catcher in 2019? A few moves are needed.
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How do the rules work for foreign players? I assume less years of protection evidently - someone could take (not that they would) a 20/21 year old Carlos Herrera?

 

It doesn't matter where the player is from. I believe it's all about how many minor league seasons they have accrued. You are going to see younger players from Latin America on the list because a lot of those guys typically sign their first pro contracts at 16-17 years old.

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How do the rules work for foreign players? I assume less years of protection evidently - someone could take (not that they would) a 20/21 year old Carlos Herrera?

 

It doesn't matter where the player is from. I believe it's all about how many minor league seasons they have accrued. You are going to see younger players from Latin America on the list because a lot of those guys typically sign their first pro contracts at 16-17 years old.

 

So DSL seasons count towards the eligibility or just stateside seasons?

 

Or the seasons don't matter, it is just counting time from the professional contract signing?

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How do the rules work for foreign players? I assume less years of protection evidently - someone could take (not that they would) a 20/21 year old Carlos Herrera?

 

It doesn't matter where the player is from. I believe it's all about how many minor league seasons they have accrued. You are going to see younger players from Latin America on the list because a lot of those guys typically sign their first pro contracts at 16-17 years old.

 

So DSL seasons count towards the eligibility or just stateside seasons?

 

Or the seasons don't matter, it is just counting time from the professional contract signing?

 

Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft who are not on their major league organization's 40-man roster and:

 

were 18 or younger on the June 5 preceding their signing and this is the fifth Rule 5 draft upcoming; or

were 19 or older on the June 5 preceding their signing and this is the fourth Rule 5 draft upcoming.

 

Yes, it goes from when they signed their first pro contract.

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I feel like because the rule is 5 years no matter what you see too many DSL guys promoted too quickly through the system and this leads to our lower minors (Helena, Wisconsin) littered with too many guys from the island who can't hit and random relief pitchers.

 

Also, off the top of my head, I can't really think of many if any success stories of guys we've signed and devoloped into major leaguers from the DSL since re-opening the academy. Arcia is the only one I can think of and he seems to fit the profile of guy from the island who can't hit.

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My first thought was, our system could be pillaged this offseason even with protecting a few guys. Then when you realize there are only 20 or so guys drafted in the MLB rule 5 and most of those are returned by the end of spring training and only 3 or 4 actually have any chance of sticking with their team long enough to be kept, it doesn't really concern me too much. Kodi and QTC are the only ones I could really see being drafted and lost as they could fill a LOOGY role without messing too much with a team's 25 man makeup.
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My first thought was, our system could be pillaged this offseason even with protecting a few guys. Then when you realize there are only 20 or so guys drafted in the MLB rule 5 and most of those are returned by the end of spring training and only 3 or 4 actually have any chance of sticking with their team long enough to be kept, it doesn't really concern me too much. Kodi and QTC are the only ones I could really see being drafted and lost as they could fill a LOOGY role without messing too much with a team's 25 man makeup.

Not sure I would say that, considering we lost Miguel Diaz to the Padres and he was not even that highly rated in our system. He was in low A at the time he was drafted. I'd say anyone in our top 25 prospects not protected could be picked and lost. Ortiz for sure would be picked. A team could use the max DL time for him to limit how much he is exposed to the majors. Supak is in AA and pitching well. The trio of talented but injured pitchers (Kirby, D. Williams, Bickford) could be stashed in the back end of a bullpen. Derby, Perrin, Ponce could make a ML bullpen as well. Stokes and Segovia could be 4th OFs with real upside. Gatewood is probably less likely but you never know.

 

We have 43 players on our 40 man roster (including 60 DL). Miley, Kratz, Vogt, Franklin, Asher, Orf, and Wilkerson would get it down to 36. I think we could clear 2 more spots by waiving a U IF like Perez/Miller/Villar/Saladino and another RP like J.Lopez. Those last two would be much more painful but I would do it to keep a guy like Supak or Stokes. So, I have 12 guys and possibly Gatewood that could be taken and only 6 spots available. They all wont be taken but unless we make a trade or two, we could lose a few guys in the draft.

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Would they consider trying to find spots for guys like Medeiros and Torres-Costa before September 1st? Since they'll need to be added after the season anyway it won't hurt to do it early if you have space, and then they could be nice bullpen adds to the MLB roster in September.
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Would they consider trying to find spots for guys like Medeiros and Torres-Costa before September 1st? Since they'll need to be added after the season anyway it won't hurt to do it early if you have space, and then they could be nice bullpen adds to the MLB roster in September.

 

Melvin never really did this much. There is the cost for each player for a month (est $100,000 extra), so if you are adding 5-6 players it starts adding up. Also, I think a factor was the risk the player gets hurt and then he is getting paid and earning service time.

 

Wasn't it last year that they wanted CS to have players for the playoffs? Seems like we only called up Taylor Williams and later Wilkerson. Seems like we could have added another guy or two - so maybe Stearns thinks the same way as Melvin.

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  • 2 weeks later...
First 5 on your list are the ones I would protect. Would hate to lose Kirby/Bickford just to see what they become, but figuring there's a pretty good chance neither get picked up. Ponce, Perrin, Derby,Williams I would have kept at the beginning of this season now I wouldn't lose any sleep over them.
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Considering that Gatewood is a 1B-only - and also considering his knee injury and his BB:K ratio - I think it would be very difficult for another team to carry him or want to carry him.

 

Much easier to stash a lefty in the pen and use him as a LOOGY, thus I'd protect Kirby over Gatewood but I don't think there is a strong need to protect Kirby.

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Brewer Fanatic Staff

This is closetbrewerfan's post, the board was doing some funky duplicating today with this post, so reposting it here. The posts just above this reference the text below:

 

Here is my updated list based on the most recent stats (MLB prospect #)

 

Must protect:

1. Ortiz (#7 prospect) - Good stuff but oft injured. The injury history is not an issue for a rule 5 pick as that is an excuse to shield him from the majors for part of the year.

2. Supak (#18) - Really good numbers. Mid rotation starter potential. Seems to struggle when promoted but then settles in. Gotta believe a team would take a flier on him.

3. Torres-Costa - Relief prospect but has stellar K/9 numbers again this year (11.5 in '18, 11.8 for career). Ready for majors now. Only 23 now, so he will be picked by someone.

 

Maybe protect:

4. Stokes (#20) - 20/20 potential. LF but could play CF. Would be a good 4th OF with upside.

5. Gatewood (#14) - Tons of power and is versatile as he can play 1B/3B and has played SS. Probably could be put in the OF as well. He is a high enough prospect that a team would take a chance on, but his swing and miss issues would limit much success in the majors right now.

6. D.Williams - Missed all of last year. In A+ with a 4.15 ERA and 10.4 K/9 in 9 starts. Mid rotation prospect if he can stay healthy.

7.Ponce (#22) - Backend starter potential. Good stuff, average numbers. Needs more seasoning. Unlikely to do well in majors now but has enough potential to be selected.

 

Unlikely to be picked but would hate to lose:

8. Kirby - A high draft pick that has missed 2 years of development. Now in A+ and struggling with a 1.6 WHIP. Potential is still there but would be hard to hide in a ML bullpen.

9. Bickford - Once a top 100 prospect, now seems to be a reliever. But could be a good one. Just coming back from injury and suspension, only has 17 IP in A+. Numbers are not too good yet, though he is getting strikeouts.

10. Derby - Swingman or middle relief prospect. He would be a cheap pitcher and is likely ready right now.

11. Perrin - Average stuff but smart pitcher. Swingman upside. Similar to Derby.

12. Harber - Swingman upside. Has had control problems but is improving. Not ready for MLs but no more so than Diaz was (although he is a lower rated prospect than Diaz was)

13. Segovia - 4th OF type. Speed and hit tool but no power. 292 BA, 721 OPS and 14-20 is SB at A+. Already have a lot OF depth so the Brewers won't protect him.

 

I could see the brewers opening up 5 spots this fall with Miley/Asher/Wilkerson and 2 UIF (Orf/Miller). There are 4 guys on the 60 man DL, so I'm assuming Vogt, Kratz, Franklin, and Suter will also be DFAd. That would leave Williams and Ponce unprotected. I could also change my mind quickly on Kirby and Bickford. If they turn around their year, we would need to protect them too. The Brewers have some financial decisions to make on Perez, Villar, Soria. There is some flexibility here but the offseason decisions will be tough if a trade is not made to clear some of these players out.

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Well, I'll have to assume Gatewood can be left unprotected with his injury. Sucks because I thought he was going to break out some more. Steady improvement

 

And he still might continue his breakout. He should be ready to go full-speed in spring training

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