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Does Prince have a shot at catching Bonds?


adambr2

Obviously a long ways before this can even really be considered, but just thought it might be fun to talk about. Do you think Fielder has a shot at ever catching Bonds at some point in his career? Obviously, at such a young age, Prince has a very long and productive career in front of him. He is currently on pace for 54 homeruns this season. Let's say he gets there, that would give him 84 homeruns at age 23.

 

We can also assume that at his age, he is not yet in his prime. So let's assume about 50 homeruns per year throughout his career. He might have a breakout year and hit 60, or he might have an off year or injured year and hit 38.

 

50 homeruns a year would put him at ...

 

500 homeruns, around his 32nd birthday, in 2016.

600 homeruns, around his 34th birthday, in 2018.

700 homeruns, around his 36th birthday, in 2020.

 

He'd probably pass Ruth at age 36 sometime in 2020. He'd have a shot at catching Aaron at age 37.

 

So, clearly it would take a career where he remained productive up through his high 30's, but that would be awesome if he did. I understand that he may be a DH in the National League by that point and not a Brewer, but it's still fun to talk about our young first baseman having that chance.

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I would be shocked if Fielder's body held up long enough to catch up to ARod who will have the record by that point hopefully. Players with the short stocky frame just don't tend to have long careers.
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I would be shocked if Fielder's body held up long enough to catch up to ARod who will have the record by that point hopefully. Players with the short stocky frame just don't tend to have long careers.

 

Fielder's dad did manage a 13 year career with what in my mind looked to be a much worse body, but he would still have to be blessed with good health and maybe some PED's.

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The early start phenomena is always helpful, but compared to say A-rod Prince already has two years to make up. And while Prince has a very nice pace going he still hasn't hit 50 HRs even once, so that's kid of a stretch. And not only do you need a favorable aging curve you need to have better than average health. And of course no player has hit 50 HRs in what more than 4 or 5 consecutive season or something like that so to pronounce a full decade is another stretch.
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A-Rod had 241 home runs when he was 25.

 

Prince will not even be close to that many when he is 25. He only has 59 home runs and needs another 182 by the end of 2009 or about 182 home runs in 298 games. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

 

Even M. Cabrera is too far behind A-Rod at this stage of his Career. I think Cabrera has about 120 Hr's and he is 24.

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Ryan Braun has a chance. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

At his current rate, he'd average about 46 homeruns per year. Which would take him 16.5 years to catch Aaron's record, at which he'd be 39. Of course, I could've screwed up my calculations and there's some fudging of numbers involved because he started this season late, but you get the idea.

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Prince is a lot more like some of the mammoth sluggers of the 90's than Bonds...i think he'll hit between 400 and 500...sorta like Frank Thomas...theres just no way he can do this until he's 40..
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Quote:
So let's assume about 50 homeruns per year throughout his career.

 

Yeah, like that's no big deal...

We already have another player (Rickie) that we are jumping all over on this board because he isn't meeting our HUGE expectations, and now we start putting this kind of thing on Prince? So if he only reaches 40 this year and next, is he a dissapointment? Should we send him down to AAA or trade him?

Come on guys, whatever happened to realistic expectations for young players? There have been plenty of players that have been hyped to have the same talent level as Prince and Rickie...many of them have been only OK players, and many of them were complete busts at the MLB level.

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He is currently on pace for 54 homeruns this season. Let's say he gets there

 

If you looked at the ML top 5 HR leaders at the half for a random year, you'd probably find that the majority don't keep up their first half pace (regression to the mean, for all you statistics fans). That doesn't mean Prince can't hit 54 or even 60 HRs this year but the odds are probably against it.

 

Now if you asked me if Prince will hit 50+ at some point in his career, I'd answer an emphatic yes. It wouldn't surprise me if he does it 4 or 5 times before all is said and done. But to try and project 700+ career HRs for any 23 year old player is a tall order, to say the least. I'll make the easy guess and say no.

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