2022 Brewers Offense

[owbc]

23 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Unless wRC+ takes into account the quality of pitchers faced, using it for a small number of games seems to be somewhere between potentially misleading and useless.

We all know that in the 15 games after the ASG the Brewers had very good offensive production (except for a shutout loss) while going 7-1 in the first 8 games and then fell pretty flat while going 1-6 in the next 7 games.

But I think if we look game by game at those 15 games, the quality of pitchers the Brewers faced was quite poor, both starters and relievers. In April and early May, the Brewers fattened up their offensive numbers against pitchers from the Cubs and (especially) the Reds and Pirates. 

Just look at some of the games this week started by Burnes and Woodruff. Yesterday, for example, would you say the Brewers and Reds offenses were equal because they both scored 1 run in 6 innings against the SP, or was the performance of the Brewers offense more anemic because they were facing a starter with an ERA over 4?

IMHO, given the quality (or lack thereof) of the pitchers the Brewers have faced since the ASG their production has been less than should have been expected.

Every segment of the Brewers roster (SP, RP, hitting, and defense) shares some of the blame for the Brewers going 40-42 in their last 82 games. If they don't perform better, the next 5 series are going to kill them. Except for the Cubs (who they've had trouble beating as it is) they are going to be facing pitching and hitting significantly better than they have faced since the break,

I think that chart is since the all-star break but not sure. 

For 2022 as a whole the Brewers are 9th in wRC+, 8th in runs/game, 4th in non-weighted OPS. 

The Brewers basically have a good offense and league average pitching this year. I don't know where the narrative comes from that the offense is holding back pitching, because it's false. 

 

[NBBrewFan]

3 minutes ago, owbc said:

The Brewers basically have a good offense and league average pitching this year. I don't know where the narrative comes from that the offense is holding back pitching, because it's false. 

 

I do recall several posters pointing out that the pitching (based on Runs Allowed) wasn't as elite as we were thinking and the response was that it's a defense issue not a pitching issue.  I think we are deep enough into the year and with the injuries that we can agree that the overall pitching hasn't been so elite.  The positive is that if they make it to the playoffs, A shortened rotation of Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff/Lauer can still be elite.

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, owbc said:

I think that chart is since the all-star break but not sure. 

For 2022 as a whole the Brewers are 9th in wRC+, 8th in runs/game, 4th in non-weighted OPS. 

The Brewers basically have a good offense and league average pitching this year. I don't know where the narrative comes from that the offense is holding back pitching, because it's false. 

 

That chart says it’s for after the ASG only, which is why I think it’s pretty meaningless, especially considering the low quality pitching the Brewers have faced.

This all relates to my opinion, based in part and numbers and part on gut reaction, that the Brewers offense is not as good as some of the numbers suggest because they have played more games than anyone else against teams that are the worst in the league at preventing runs. I have also shown how the Brewers run production has been significantly higher against those poor pitching teams than it has been against better teams, and that the gap is significantly greater than it is for other playoff contending teams. 

In these last 6 games the Brewers scored 26 runs, an average of 4.33 per game, which is only a little below their and the league’s average runs per game. But when you factor in that the Reds and Pirates average giving up 5.16 and 4.99 RPG respectively, that 4.33 average looks worse than if it came against the Dodgers or Cardinals or any other team with both stronger starters and stronger bullpens. And that has been the point all along; that the Brewers’ home run or nothing offense is not well designed to be successful against the best pitchers on the best teams. 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

If you read what I posted I said combined 2020 and 2021.  If you combine them both you get about a seasons worth of data for Hiura.  

The fact remains that Hiura's BABIP is not sustainable.  

Can we at least agree that his batting average on bombs over the fence will sustain itself at 1.000?

[nate82]

40 minutes ago, timpep said:

Can we at least agree that his batting average on bombs over the fence will sustain itself at 1.000?

Obviously a HR is always going to be 1.000.  What is the point here?  

 

FYI on the definition of BABIP.

[BruisedCrew]

I pulled together some numbers this morning that show how the Brewers run scoring totals relative to the other NL playoff contenders are inflated by:

1. Playing so many games against the 5 most generous teams in the league (Nats, Pirates, Reds, Cubs, and Rockies), and

2. Padding their run totals against those teams (especially early in the season) even though their aggregate won-loss percentage  against those teams is significantly worse than any of the other contenders. Those big double digit run games pad the numbers while only accounting for one win or, in the case of one game against the Reds, one loss. 

I could go into more detail, but I don’t have the stomach for it today when it should be obvious to the most optimistic fans that this team is leaking oil badly, especially on offense. 

[brewers888]

There isn't one everyday player on this team that I would be sad not to see on the team next season. We really don't have even one good hitter on this team. The only value that Yelich has is his ability to draw walks which is pretty remarkable considering he has virtually no power.