2022 Brewers Offense

[Jopal78]

11 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

Run differential is more important than rankings among contending teams. So having an average offense around 100 wRC+ is still significantly better than having an offense like the A's or Tigers around 76-77 wRC+ even though we'd be the worst playoff team offensively either way.

We have the second best xFIP in the majors at 3.58 (only behind the Yankees' at 3.48). That's how we can still be competitive with other playoff teams in limited playoff series with an average offense (that could also play above average for a short period of time during a playoff run).

That said, we could definitely use an offensive boost, I think everyone agrees on that, it's just a matter of what's realistic and what the cost is to get it.

Going by run differential the Brewers are nearer to the bottom third of the NL, than the top of the league

LAD +120

NYM +66

SD   +66

St.L  +63

SF   +44

ATL + 44

PHI  +29

MIA (!!) +24

MIL  +14.

Maybe they sneak into the postseason as a WC by getting fat on the cream puffs in their Division, but without the pitching going into another gear, or finding some consistent offense this team is only masquerading as a big boy this season. 

On a side note, as illustrative of the offensive doldrums even the Ryan Braun of '18-'20 (.266/.323/.488) would be a the best offensive player on this year's team.  

[sveumrules]

43 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

On a side note, as illustrative of the offensive doldrums even the Ryan Braun of '18-'20 (.266/.323/.488) would be a the best offensive player on this year's team.  

The offensive environment was way higher in 2018-20 than it is this year.

Braun’s 2018-20 OPS+ was 110, which would be 4th on the current team behind Renfroe, Rowdy and Adames.

[brewerfan82]

It's pretty amazing that they've pulled off the record they have to this point with a run differential that low, but I'm not sure that looking at actual run differentials to this point in the season is overly meaningful, they can swing rapidly with blowout games one way or the other. Looking at the projected run differential for the rest of the season they're a more respectable 10th in the MLB (https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings). And that's with them projected to be middle of the pack offensively and only about 9th best in the majors defensively/pitching. If they can maintain a top level pitching staff (which getting back some key guys and staying healthier the rest of the season should help) and improve on offense a little bit (replacing black holes with a key pickup or two), they could easily be better than that.

That's not mindblowing or an indicator that they're going to cakewalk through the playoffs to a World Series championship, but it gives them a shot to be successful. Hopefully MA/DS have a couple under the radar pickups in them this year to give the offense the boost it needs.

We all know the offense needs to be better, just wondering what those that keep repeating that are hoping happens to improve that? Or do you just want others to stop hoping the team can be successful as it is (even though they've been pretty successful as is despite a pretty horrid stretch and injuries and under-production by many players, etc.)?

[Jopal78]

54 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

 

We all know the offense needs to be better, just wondering what those that keep repeating that are hoping happens to improve that? Or do you just want others to stop hoping the team can be successful as it is (even though they've been pretty successful as is despite a pretty horrid stretch and injuries and under-production by many players, etc.)?

That's the million dollar question isn't it? 

Renfroe, Adames, Wong and Tellez are playing exactly at his career norms; Peterson, Narvaez and Caratini have played better than their career marks. I don't think there is anything more that can realistically be expected from those players.  Therefore the question becomes:  of the players who have been major disappointments at the plate (Yelich, McCutchen and Urias) is there an extended hot streak in them where they can be an offensive catalyst? I have no idea, but my gut seems to doubt it. 

 However, with 18 of the 32 games remaining before the deadline being against playoff contending teams (St. Louis, Tampa, Minnesota, San Francisco, and Boston), the Brewers either get it done with who they have on hand, or they'll likely fade from the race and either stand pat at the deadline or perhaps do a soft sell. 

[brewers888]

53 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

It's pretty amazing that they've pulled off the record they have to this point with a run differential that low, but I'm not sure that looking at actual run differentials to this point in the season is overly meaningful, they can swing rapidly with blowout games one way or the other. Looking at the projected run differential for the rest of the season they're a more respectable 10th in the MLB (https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings). And that's with them projected to be middle of the pack offensively and only about 9th best in the majors defensively/pitching. If they can maintain a top level pitching staff (which getting back some key guys and staying healthier the rest of the season should help) and improve on offense a little bit (replacing black holes with a key pickup or two), they could easily be better than that.

That's not mindblowing or an indicator that they're going to cakewalk through the playoffs to a World Series championship, but it gives them a shot to be successful. Hopefully MA/DS have a couple under the radar pickups in them this year to give the offense the boost it needs.

We all know the offense needs to be better, just wondering what those that keep repeating that are hoping happens to improve that? Or do you just want others to stop hoping the team can be successful as it is (even though they've been pretty successful as is despite a pretty horrid stretch and injuries and under-production by many players, etc.)?

I was hoping for JD Martinez but the Red Sox are now contending so thats out the window. Josh Bell is probably as high as we can aim and he's an upgrade for sure but I think this team is going to have to have a nearly injury free pitching staff and hope that they can carry the team to a championship.

Last season our biggest deadline acquisition was Escobar who was not a big enough upgrade so hopefully we aim higher this season but I'm not sure there will be a huge upgrade available. Our best chance of winning is Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta pitching lights out with Devin and Josh dominating and hopefully squeezing out a bunch of wins.

I doubt Stearns can do anything that makes this lineup much better so we will have to hope that guys can get hot at the right time and the pitching carries us.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Teams don't win world series with players playing at career norms.  We have to expect career years from at least a few of these guys.  I don't think that is unrealistic and if the team goes on a tear, that could happen.  Renfroe, Adames, and Tellez need to OPS over 800.  Urias is still shaking off the rust, we need him to hit like he did last year.  Taylor needs an OPS over 700 and closer to 800.  McCutchen needs to mash LHs and he is a slow starter so there is reason to think he will improve.  Yelich needs to at least hit 750 OPS.  This is possible, just not sure how likely it will be.  A couple of bats added would sure help.

[BruisedCrew]

On 6/22/2022 at 11:01 AM, brewerfan82 said:

We all know the offense needs to be better, just wondering what those that keep repeating that are hoping happens to improve that? Or do you just want others to stop hoping the team can be successful as it is (even though they've been pretty successful as is despite a pretty horrid stretch and injuries and under-production by many players, etc.)?

Speaking for myself, I couldn't care less if people want to hope that the Brewers as currently constructed can be successful in the playoffs. Actually, I have that hope myself.

But, I would like to see criticisms of the team to be addressed by comparing them to other playoff contenders, instead of the league average. In many cases, being league average makes the team the worst of any playoff contender. I would hope that the Brewers are aiming higher than that.

Before the season started, the general consensus was that the Braves, Mets, Phillies, Brewers, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants, and Padres would be fighting it out for the 6 spots in the expanded playoffs. As we approach the halfway point of the season, that's exactly how things are playing out. Those 8 teams are the only NL teams with a record over .500. They (plus the Marlins) are the only NL teams with a positive run differential. 

In addition to hoping for some players to improve their perfomances in the second half of the season, I would like to see some upgrades to the roster, most notably a right handed hitter who can play 1B (and maybe corner outfield).

[Robocaller]

The only way you can think STL is better than MKE is if you think several guys who are outperforming their best year (including Goldschmidt, who is doing so at age 34 during a down season for offense around MLB, and Mikulos, who is not that good) will continue to do as well or better, AND that we won't have a full starting pitching rotation any time soon. 

It's amazing they are in first place with so many missed games by important players. They've been starting Chi-chi and Jason Alexander, for God's sake. And when STL has an injury, they've promoted guys who have done great and they are other good bets for a later season decline.

The absence of Cain has improved the offense.
Yelich has done well batting leadoff. There are reasons for hope, if our guys can stay healthy.

[Underachiever]

17 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

But, I would like to see criticisms of the team to be addressed by comparing them to other playoff contenders, instead of the league average. In many cases, being league average makes the team the worst of any playoff contender. I would hope that the Brewers are aiming higher than that.

Seconded. All in favor?

[brewerfan82]

* SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT * but the offense may be heating up...

Since June 14th (@NYM, @CIN, STL, TOR):

Or since June 20th if you want to get past that Reds series:

Again super small samples, but so are playoff series, and this team can definitely have stretches where they're competitive offensively with the other NL contenders. Mix in they still have the best xFIP in the league on the pitching side of things and there's hope they could make a run as-is in the playoffs if they get healthy and get in a groove.

That said I definitely expect some reinforcements to be added to the team as well. Good times to be a Brewers fan!

[Brewcrew82]

42 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

* SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT * but the offense may be heating up...

Since June 14th (@NYM, @CIN, STL, TOR):

Or since June 20th if you want to get past that Reds series:

Again super small samples, but so are playoff series, and this team can definitely have stretches where they're competitive offensively with the other NL contenders. Mix in they still have the best xFIP in the league on the pitching side of things and there's hope they could make a run as-is in the playoffs if they get healthy and get in a groove.

That said I definitely expect some reinforcements to be added to the team as well. Good times to be a Brewers fan!

Been saying this all year. They don't need to have an elite offense to win in the playoffs with their pitching. They just can't go stone cold like they did against Braves last year. The playoffs is all about getting hot and staying hot for 3-4 series. 

[Lathund]

Over the last two weeks, Brewers 129 wRC+ leads the majors. Obviously too small of a sample to really say too much, but if the offense during the losing streak was the worst of all time and the sky was falling, I assume we'll be seeing the same posters proclaiming us WS champions now. Or is that not how it works?

[BruisedCrew]

My opinion about the offense has been as consistent as it could be, starting in the off-season and continuing to today. It’s not the worst in the Nl and it’s not the best. It is squarely in the middle, which makes it the worst, or close to the worst, among the NL playoff contenders.

The question coming into the season was whether elite pitching could be enough to counterbalance a mediocre offense. Now that the pitching is not elite due to injuries and underperformance, the offense has to be better for the Brewers to make the playoffs, much less make a deep run in them. 
 

A somewhat larger sample of games going back to May 5 shows the Brewers going 26-26 with a run differential of -20. That is also the worst record and run differential of any of the NL playoff contenders during that period. An objective observer might say that the Brewers are fortunate to have the record they do.
 

Maybe a more favorable schedule will help turn things around, but that has to be accompanied by better play. There were hopes that Lauer and Houser would recover from their terrible June performances, but any comeback from Houser is now on hold indefinitely. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

My opinion about the offense has been as consistent as it could be, starting in the off-season and continuing to today. It’s not the worst in the Nl and it’s not the best. It is squarely in the middle, which makes it the worst, or close to the worst, among the NL playoff contenders.

The question coming into the season was whether elite pitching could be enough to counterbalance a mediocre offense. Now that the pitching is not elite due to injuries and underperformance, the offense has to be better for the Brewers to make the playoffs, much less make a deep run in them. 
 

A somewhat larger sample of games going back to May 5 shows the Brewers going 26-26 with a run differential of -20. That is also the worst record and run differential of any of the NL playoff contenders during that period. An objective observer might say that the Brewers are fortunate to have the record they do.
 

Maybe a more favorable schedule will help turn things around, but that has to be accompanied by better play. There were hopes that Lauer and Houser would recover from their terrible June performances, but any comeback from Houser is now on hold indefinitely. 

You can't just pick and choose dates, and then say the Brewers are fortunate or lucky based off that. A lot of that record since May 5 is driven by the 8 game losing streak in which injuries to key players finally caught up with them amidst the most difficult portion of their schedule. Alternatively, they did get off to the best start in franchise history, and then, post-losing streak with the return of some key injured players and the DFA of Cain, have returned to being among the better teams in baseball. As far as anecdotal evidence, just look at some of the lineups we were forced to put out there in the middle of the losing streak against the Padres and Phillies....

With regard to the offense, it is not this anomaly amongst NL contenders that you keep making it out to be. Even if you don't think it's as good as it's been over the last two weeks, in which it leads the NL in WRC+, its production in that key stat over the course of the entire season places it in a tier with teams such as the Padres, Giants, Phillies, and Braves. Not at the Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays level for sure, but enough for a contender such as us with elite arms like Burnes, Woodruff, Hader, Williams, etc.

Furthermore, the team that played in May and June isn't the team that's going to be playing down the stretch in August and September. Besides likely trade upgrades, we're no longer going to be getting league-worst production from a guy such as Cain. McCutchen has already shown that he's not the hitter we saw in May/early June. And guys who were down with injuries for a long period such as Adames and Renfroe should be there as key cogs in the lineup.

This team is right where it needs to be and is backed up by the projection sites, which give them around an 80% probability of making the postseason and a 65% likelihood of winning the division. Not a lock by any means, but in great position. 

[BruisedCrew]

Kind of ironic to be criticized for picking and choosing dates after a post about the offense over the last two weeks. I choose the May 5 date because it followed the 9 games against the Pirates, Cubs, and Reds in which the Brewers exploded for a disproportionate number of runs.

But, if you want to look at the whole season to date, the Brewers are still outperforming their projected Pythagorean record by about 3 wins. Some objective observers would look at that as a sign that the Brewers have been a little fortunate. Their offense for the whole season is still below league average, even with the recent uptick.

As far as the team going forward, we really can’t be sure who will be playing and how they will perform. We don’t know who it will be but we have to assume there will be more inuries, both for the Brewers and other teams. We also don’t know what player movement there will be and if the Brewers will improve themselves more or less than the competition. 

As I’ve said many times, one of my fundamental differences with several posters on this board is that I am not just hoping for the Brewers to slip into the playoffs by winning the weakest division in the NL, and hoping for a hot streak to get them through 4 playoff series. The same projection sites that give the Brewers a good probability of making the playoffs give them about a 2% chance of winning the World Series, which is significantly lower than it was last year and lower than it was at the start of the season.

I don’t subscribe to the idea that the playoffs are a complete crapshoot and all a team has to do is get there. In the new playoff system, the top two division winners have a significant advantage from a pure mathematical perspective, not to mention the advantage of going into the division series with a lined up starting rotation and a rested bullpen against a team that may have had to use up a lot of ammunition just to get out of the wild card round.

If the Brewers can step things up and put together the best record in the league over the last 2 months like the Braves did last year, or the last 3 months like the Nats in 2019, I will be more bullish about their chances of making a playoff run. In the meantime, I’m not going to apologize for looking at the team through a critical lens.

 

 

[Brewcrew82]

48 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Kind of ironic to be criticized for picking and choosing dates after a post about the offense over the last two weeks. I choose the May 5 date because it followed the 9 games against the Pirates, Cubs, and Reds in which the Brewers exploded for a disproportionate number of runs.

But, if you want to look at the whole season to date, the Brewers are still outperforming their projected Pythagorean record by about 3 wins. Some objective observers would look at that as a sign that the Brewers have been a little fortunate. Their offense for the whole season is still below league average, even with the recent uptick.

As far as the team going forward, we really can’t be sure who will be playing and how they will perform. We don’t know who it will be but we have to assume there will be more inuries, both for the Brewers and other teams. We also don’t know what player movement there will be and if the Brewers will improve themselves more or less than the competition. 

As I’ve said many times, one of my fundamental differences with several posters on this board is that I am not just hoping for the Brewers to slip into the playoffs by winning the weakest division in the NL, and hoping for a hot streak to get them through 4 playoff series. The same projection sites that give the Brewers a good probability of making the playoffs give them about a 2% chance of winning the World Series, which is significantly lower than it was last year and lower than it was at the start of the season.

I don’t subscribe to the idea that the playoffs are a complete crapshoot and all a team has to do is get there. In the new playoff system, the top two division winners have a significant advantage from a pure mathematical perspective, not to mention the advantage of going into the division series with a lined up starting rotation and a rested bullpen against a team that may have had to use up a lot of ammunition just to get out of the wild card round.

If the Brewers can step things up and put together the best record in the league over the last 2 months like the Braves did last year, or the last 3 months like the Nats in 2019, I will be more bullish about their chances of making a playoff run. In the meantime, I’m not going to apologize for looking at the team through a critical lens.

 

 

There is zero irony, because first of all, I didn't make said post, and second of all, you'll see that I said, "Even if you don't think the offense is as good as it's been over the last two weeks...." 

And picking and choosing May 5th is totally wrong because you can't take out games against the Pirates, Cubs, and Reds when they make up a significant portion of our schedule due to them being in our division. 

Once again, the offense is not "below league average", it's at average to slightly above average and in the same statistical tier as NL contenders such as the Padres, Giants, Phillies, and Braves, let alone AL contenders such as the Rays and White Sox. 

You're right in that we can't be certain who will be available and how they will play, that's why they actually play the games. But we do have the projections and they are all telling us that the Brewers are likely to make they playoffs and win the division. 

I have no idea where you're getting the 2% chance of winning the World Series. Just doing a quick scroll now I see Fangraphs and Five Thirty Eight both have us at 5% or above which is easily in the top 10.

And while you may not subscribe to the idea that the playoffs are a complete crapshoot, literally the most recent evidence we have tells us that it is for the most part. See the 2021 Braves and 2019 Nationals. This may change under the new system or it may not. I would say that it probably won't because the teams that are playing the best in October are the ones that tend to win, regardless of a "rested bullpen" or "lined up rotation". For example, the 2019 Nationals used both Scherzer and Strasburg in their Wild Card game against us, in addition to key bullpen arms, and then had to turn around to face the well-rested, 106 win Dodgers. It didn't end up making a lick of difference in the end because the Nationals were simply playing better baseball at the time. 

Finally, no one is criticizing you for applying a critical lens to this team. But stuff like the picking and choosing of dates and the inaccurate facts sure don't help your argument. 

 

[BruisedCrew]

On the World Series percentages, the most recent one I saw was today on Baseball Reference which showed it at 1.3%. If other sites have it higher fine. That really has no bearing on the bigger issue of the Brewers offense. 
 

On the issue of the hottest teams, you seem to be ignoring my point that the Braves last year had the best record in the NL in August and September, and the Nats in 2019 had the best record in the league from July 1 on. They didn’t just suddenly turn it on in the playoffs. As I said, If the Brewers put together the best record in the league in the second half of the season I will be more bullish about their playoff prospects. 
 

Time will tell if having to play a 2 or 3 game playoff series just to advance to the Division series puts a team at a disadvantage. If nothing else, you would have to agree that even playing that series significantly reduces a team’s chances of advancing to or winning the World Series as compared to a team that gets a bye into the second round. 
 

It is my understanding that, after the regular ends on Wednesday, October 5, the wild card round be played on Friday through Monday and the division series will start on Tuesday and Wednesday. Presumably, the league that starts its wild card series on Friday will start its division series on Tuesday and the other league will start its wild card series on Saturday and the division series on Wednesday.

For the teams that get the byes, even if they had to fight to the last day to win their spot, they can set their rotation for the division series however they want with every one  of their pitchers having at least 5 days rest. 
 

For the teams that have to play the wild card round, they might have as little as one day between their last regular season game and their first playoff game. Using the Brewers as an example, they might want to have Burnes and Woodruff starting the first two games of that series unless they were needed in the final day or two just to get into the playoffs. If they win that wild series, the first games of the division round would be just 4 days after their first playoff game. Unless they are willing to start throwing their pitchers out with only 3 days rest, they might have to use a fourth starter against their opponent’s ace. They would also probably be limited to using their best starting pitchers just once in the series. 
 

IMHO, that ability to set the pitching staff can give the home team a real advantage in what is already a short series. We’ll have to agree to disagree on that as there is no past history to rely on in this unprecedented format. But, you know there will be a lot of talk about it when the playoffs approach  

 

[BruisedCrew]

BTW, I also want to add that I question using a runs created formula as the best way to measure a team’s offense.

I have known about the runs created concept since the late 70’s when I first saw Bill James Baseball Abstracts. I fully understand the value of runs created as it has evolved over the years as a way to measure a player’s performance and contribution to a team scoring runs. It does make more sense than the  traditional things like RBI which are dependent on opportunities  that are out of the player’s control.

But, when it comes to evaluating a team’s offense, as opposed to a player’s offense, I think it makes more sense to go right to the simple measure of how many runs the team has scored. Maybe the team’s total as computed by runs created is a good predictor of how many runs the team SHOULD score, why not go to what really counts: how many runs do they ACTUALLY score 

So, when I say that the Brewers offense is below league average, I am looking directly at runs scored per game, not some advanced statistic that measures something else. If the Brewers runs created numbers rank them higher relative to other teams than actual runs scored, maybe that’s a sign that they don’t do as well as they should at taking advantage of scoring opportunities  

 

[stoutdude04]

Arenado is 3 for 3 and a single short of the cycle in the 6th. I wonder how many times the single was the last piece needed.

[Lathund]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

So, when I say that the Brewers offense is below league average, I am looking directly at runs scored per game, not some advanced statistic that measures something else. If the Brewers runs created numbers rank them higher relative to other teams than actual runs scored, maybe that’s a sign that they don’t do as well as they should at taking advantage of scoring opportunities  

 

Brewers average 4.47 runs/game. League average is 4.34. As far as I can tell, that's not below average.

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, Lathund said:

Brewers average 4.47 runs/game. League average is 4.34. As far as I can tell, that's not below average.

Why I said if you're going to apply a critical lens, at least use facts. Brewers actually outpace the Houston Astros in that category, but I wouldn't say they have a better offense. That's pretty much why advanced stats exist. To sort through stuff like that. 

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, Lathund said:

Brewers average 4.47 runs/game. League average is 4.34. As far as I can tell, that's not below average.

 

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Why I said if you're going to apply a critical lens, at least use facts. Brewers actually outpace the Houston Astros in that category, but I wouldn't say they have a better offense. That's pretty much why advanced stats exist. To sort through stuff like that. 

As I have said several times, including on this thread, I compare the Brewers to the teams in the National League because those are the teams they are competing with for playoff positions.

The NL average is 4.50 so the Brewers RPG is slightly below that, and lower than the other 7 NL playoff contenders. That is a FACT. 

Tonight’s explosion will obviously move the average up. As someone said earlier in this thread, huge scoring games can skew the averages

Do the advanced stats take the opposition into account? Another FACT is that the worst pitching teams in the NL in terms of runs allowed per game are the Reds, Nats, Rockies, Cubs, and Pirates, all allowing over 5 runs per game.

Another FACT is that after tonight, the Brewers will have played 33 of their 79 games against those teams. By the end of next weekend it will be 41 of their 87 games.

Does it make sense that a team that plays more games against the most generous pitching staffs should score more runs than, say, the Cardinals, who have played only 24 games against those teams?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[brewerfan82]

I just don't understand where this conversation is going at this point. Seems like everyone's just defending against a perceived extreme view point that I don't think anyone actually believes in. I think everyone agrees that this Brewers team is a good team, but is faulted when it comes to its offense. That said, the offense isn't awful, it's about league average and has the ability to get hot for periods of time. It'd be great to improve the offense somehow, but we may not have the resources to make a major splash before the trade deadline. So realistically our best hope may be in relying on our elite pitching and the offense getting on a hot streak at the right time. If MA/DA can obtain a nice bat or two to compliment the offense this month I'm sure everyone would welcome it.

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, brewerfan82 said:

I just don't understand where this conversation is going at this point. Seems like everyone's just defending against a perceived extreme view point that I don't think anyone actually believes in. I think everyone agrees that this Brewers team is a good team, but is faulted when it comes to its offense. That said, the offense isn't awful, it's about league average and has the ability to get hot for periods of time. It'd be great to improve the offense somehow, but we may not have the resources to make a major splash before the trade deadline. So realistically our best hope may be in relying on our elite pitching and the offense getting on a hot streak at the right time. If MA/DA can obtain a nice bat or two to compliment the offense this month I'm sure everyone would welcome it.

I'm not arguing any extreme. I was pointing out exactly what you just said; namely, that the offense isn't awful and is around league average (maybe slightly above league average). Also, that the offense is good enough with our pitching to potentially get us to a World Series if it goes on one of those hot streaks in October. 

[Brewcrew82]

42 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

 

As I have said several times, including on this thread, I compare the Brewers to the teams in the National League because those are the teams they are competing with for playoff positions.

The NL average is 4.50 so the Brewers RPG is slightly below that, and lower than the other 7 NL playoff contenders. That is a FACT. 

Tonight’s explosion will obviously move the average up. As someone said earlier in this thread, huge scoring games can skew the averages

Do the advanced stats take the opposition into account? Another FACT is that the worst pitching teams in the NL in terms of runs allowed per game are the Reds, Nats, Rockies, Cubs, and Pirates, all allowing over 5 runs per game.

Another FACT is that after tonight, the Brewers will have played 33 of their 79 games against those teams. By the end of next weekend it will be 41 of their 87 games.

Does it make sense that a team that plays more games against the most generous pitching staffs should score more runs than, say, the Cardinals, who have played only 24 games against those teams?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, a lot of advanced stats actually do take external factors like the quality of opposition into account. You should try studying them. Looking solely at one measure, like runs per game, to assess the overall quality of a team's offense is so very flawed I can't believe I'm having to debate it. And you can't just eliminate the American League from your analysis either, considering the whole inter-league play thing. But yes, if you look at things exactly the way you are, you can make the argument that the Brewers offense is below average.