2022 Brewers Offense

[brewers888]

17 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Going back to the 2019 offseason there have been some posters on here who were adamant if the Brewers didn't sign some key free agents that they would be absolutely horrible lets review these free agents.

2019 free agents that a few posters said the Brewers had to sign or they are not serious about competing 3B Anthony Rendon.  

Rendon:

 

Season	Team	Level	wRC	wRC+	WPA	-WPA	+WPA	RAR	WAR	Pos	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP
2020	LAA	MLB	44	153	0.94	-4.17	5.1	25.4	2.5	0.8	38	31	0.418	0.497	0.915	0.302
2021	LAA	MLB	29	95	-0.57	-4.46	3.89	1.9	0.2	0.7	29	41	0.329	0.382	0.712	0.267
2022	LAA	MLB	22	104	0.58	-3.08	3.65	8.4	0.9	0.7	23	32	0.324	0.383	0.707	0.252

2021 free agents that a few posters said the Brewers had to sign or they are not serious about competing OF/DH Nick Castellanos

 

 

Season	Team	Level	wRC	wRC+	WPA	-WPA	+WPA	RAR	WAR	Pos	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP
2022	PHI	MLB	47	91	-0.9	-7.91	7.01	-11.1	-1.2	-5.2	24	103	0.302	0.385	0.687	0.321

If the Brewers signed either of these players the offense production would be worse than what the Brewers currently already have.  Rendon is looking like an absolute disaster for the Angels as he can't stay healthy and Castellanos looks like he is on a severe decline.  In fact some of the posters favorite hating on in McCutchen is about equal to Rendon and is outperforming Castellanos.  All at a lower cost in terms of years and money.  

If the Brewers would have added Castellanos instead of Renfroe and McCutchen this off season this team would be at a lower win total than it is now.  Castellanos probably would have caused a fire sale at the deadline of Burnes, Woodruff, Hader and others.  I am not sure if that would have been good or bad.

McCutchen's season so far:

 

Season	Team	Level	wRC	wRC+	WPA	-WPA	+WPA	RAR	WAR	Pos	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP
2022	MIL	MLB	49	102	0.04	-7.39	7.43	2.9	0.3	-7.5	37	74	0.324	0.397	0.721	0.287

There is also evidence that Castellanos looks like his going to regress even more.  The Phillies may have a .700 OPS max player on their hands going forward in Castellanos.  It would have been better for them to resign McCutchen to a one or two year deal than it was signing Castellanos.  

Lesson learned stop looking at big names in free agency and determining that is what will make a team better.  The Angels haven't improved their team by adding the popular top free agents in Pujols, Rendon and others over the last 5+ years.  The Phillies have also been doing the same and have yet to even make it work.  Free agency is a trap in MLB and you hardly ever get the value out of signing the top free agents.  The best value is actually in the middle where you are only doing one to three year deals anything more than three years is just setting yourself up for failure.  

Another bad idea is extending players past the age of thirty.  Once a player gets closer to thirty small market teams shouldn't even think about extending the player it just ends in disaster like signing the top free agents.  Case in point is the Yelich extension.  The Brewers never should have done this in hindsight.  Even if Yelich would be at MVP level Yelich it would have been better to just let him walk after his first contract was over with.  It is better to just keep on rotating players in and out and then letting them leave once they hit the age of thirty.  I don't really care about players playing their whole career for the Brewers.  I just don't care and it is something dumb and stupid that fans like to hold onto even if it means that player is taking up a huge amount of the payroll and sucks for the last years of their contract.

You and in particular one other guy have made your point about Castellanos and I admit to being wrong about him but that doesn't change the fact that McCutchen isn't any good either or the fact that Hiura should be the DH against all righties and probably every day regardless of who is pitching.

[nate82]

16 minutes ago, Never Outhustled said:

The Brewers also would have been better off if the Phillies resigned McCutchen, as we have a clearly superior hitter sitting on our bench. 

Hiura currently has a babip of .404 which is not sustainable.  He is going to hit a major regression at some point.  The only question is will he regress to as bad as he was in 2021 which would make him far worse the McCutchen.  So no the Brewers do not have a clearly superior hitter sitting on the bench.  

Just like in 2019 when Hiura had a babip of .402 people were predicting he would regress from that season and if you look at his combined 2020 and 2021 season this was correct.  Hiura is going to regress from his current hitting line the big question is how far is he going to regress.  From past performances it looks as though it is going to be a huge regression which would put him as a far worse option than McCutchen.  

 

[nate82]

17 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

You and in particular one other guy have made your point about Castellanos and I admit to being wrong about him but that doesn't change the fact that McCutchen isn't any good either or the fact that Hiura should be the DH against all righties and probably every day regardless of who is pitching.

Not everything is about you.  Just because I posted something about posters calling for big name signings in the off season doesn't mean I am directing it anyone please get over yourself.  

[NBBrewFan]

18 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

You and in particular one other guy have made your point about Castellanos and I admit to being wrong about him but that doesn't change the fact that McCutchen isn't any good either or the fact that Hiura should be the DH against all righties and probably every day regardless of who is pitching.

For about 5 seconds I wanted them to make a play for Kris Bryant this offseason, but then I remembered the Brewers don't have the money.  He also is entering his year 30 season so you are likely overpaying for the production you will get. We really need to trade one of the big 3 and hope you hit a home run on the return (HR = 1 all-star caliber bat).

[NBBrewFan]

Too bad Hiura's HR the last 2 games didn't count because his BABIP and K% were so high.  I wish MLB never changed the rules on scoring....

[nate82]

Just now, NBBrewFan said:

Too bad Hiura's HR the last 2 games didn't count because his BABIP and K% were so high.  I wish MLB never changed the rules on scoring....

You obviously do not understand regressing.  It doesn't mean nothing positive will happen it means that his current production is not sustainable over the rest of the season and he will regress back to his career norms and right now his career norms are worse than McCutchen.  

[NBBrewFan]

3 minutes ago, nate82 said:

You obviously do not understand regressing.  It doesn't mean nothing positive will happen it means that his current production is not sustainable over the rest of the season and he will regress back to his career norms and right now his career norms are worse than McCutchen.  

The point I have tried to make on numerous occasions is that until he starts to significantly regress he should be given every chance to play.  The idea that simply because he is LIKELY to regress means the Brewers jerking him around is ok is silly (not what you said, but a common theme here).  Nobody takes a hot hitting batter out and sits them because "they can't possible continue to hit that well".  Every batter in a hot streak has an unbelievable BABIP so that is useless as a predictor that he is over his head.  The K% is more likely to indicate he will regress, but again let him play out his "hot streak" before stating without question that today is the beginning of his regression.

[brewers888]

How long does Hiura have to keep performing until the unsustainable label disappears. He has been the most productive hitter on this team yet many don't want him in the lineup which makes no sense at all.   

[brewers888]

Keston needs to hit more high exit velocity ground balls like Yelich does before he is acceptable to the analytics crowd.

[nate82]

12 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Keston needs to hit more high exit velocity ground balls like Yelich does before he is acceptable to the analytics crowd.

Nice strawman.  

[Never Outhustled]

42 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Hiura currently has a babip of .404 which is not sustainable.  He is going to hit a major regression at some point.  The only question is will he regress to as bad as he was in 2021 which would make him far worse the McCutchen.  So no the Brewers do not have a clearly superior hitter sitting on the bench.  

Just like in 2019 when Hiura had a babip of .402 people were predicting he would regress from that season and if you look at his combined 2020 and 2021 season this was correct.  Hiura is going to regress from his current hitting line the big question is how far is he going to regress.  From past performances it looks as though it is going to be a huge regression which would put him as a far worse option than McCutchen.  

 

Yeah, and I'm sure playing a season while his mother battled cancer had nothing to do with his decline. Way too be inhumane. 

He has an incredibly high BAPIP in part because he hits with incredible exit velocities, and he strikes out instead of settling for weak contract.

[Never Outhustled]

27 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Keston needs to hit more high exit velocity ground balls like Yelich does before he is acceptable to the analytics crowd.

Don't call them the analytics crowd, that's a disservice to analytics. The fear of strikeouts is born more from the traditional baseball mantra than anything analytics suggests.

The growing obsession with weak outs is hilarious though. 

[nate82]

3 minutes ago, Never Outhustled said:

Yeah, and I'm sure playing a season while his mother battled cancer had nothing to do with his decline. Way too be inhumane. 

He has an incredibly high BAPIP in part because he hits with incredible exit velocities, and he strikes out instead of settling for weak contract.

Nice strawman for the firs point.  

There are very few players who can carry a .400 BAPIP and the majority of them regress a lot.  It is not sustainable.  Strikeouts are not bad and I never said they are.  But there is a point where the player strikes out too much and Hiura is at that point where he is striking out too much.  If a player is striking out at 35% rate that is an out in about 1/3 PA's.  So in a game you are expecting Hiura to K in two of his 3 PA's and then you take the randomness of baseball and you are looking at a .200 average hitter with power.  You are basically looking at a Mark Reynolds type of a hitter.  Hiura is basically Mark Reynolds, Chris Carter and others the Brewers have had.  Unless Hiura can get his K% around 30% he is only going to be as good as Mark Reynolds.  

[Never Outhustled]

59 minutes ago, nate82 said:

You obviously do not understand regressing.  It doesn't mean nothing positive will happen it means that his current production is not sustainable over the rest of the season and he will regress back to his career norms and right now his career norms are worse than McCutchen.  

Lol, Hiura is 25. If you understood analytics, you'd realize there is no baseline for him to regress to. His baseline has yet to be established. His improved numbers this year might be the regression.

His career OPS is higher than what McCutchen is providing, and that career OPS includes a season that should be considered an outlier because of the human element. Stop repeating your misinformation. 

[Never Outhustled]

7 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Nice strawman for the firs point.  

There are very few players who can carry a .400 BAPIP and the majority of them regress a lot.  It is not sustainable.  Strikeouts are not bad and I never said they are.  But there is a point where the player strikes out too much and Hiura is at that point where he is striking out too much.  If a player is striking out at 35% rate that is an out in about 1/3 PA's.  So in a game you are expecting Hiura to K in two of his 3 PA's and then you take the randomness of baseball and you are looking at a .200 average hitter with power.  You are basically looking at a Mark Reynolds type of a hitter.  Hiura is basically Mark Reynolds, Chris Carter and others the Brewers have had.  Unless Hiura can get his K% around 30% he is only going to be as good as Mark Reynolds.  

If Hiura replaces some of his Ks with outs in play, his BABIP will go down, but not his production. Your overstating the impact of his BAPIP, because he's simply not a common player. The fact that he's had a BAPIP over 400 in his only 2 normal seasons might actually mean that he'll simply be an incredibly high BABIP player. 

 

The real key for Hiura isn't cutting his Ks, it's to simply continue to make incredibly hard contact. Home Runs aren't lucky BABIP. 

[Never Outhustled]

15 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Nice strawman for the first point.  

 

 

Acknowledging the games human element is now a strawman? I continue to find it fascinating that you are unable to hold a discussion without hurling insults.

[nate82]

19 minutes ago, Never Outhustled said:

 

Acknowledging the games human element is now a strawman? I continue to find it fascinating that you are unable to hold a discussion without hurling insults.

They way you said it makes it a strawman argument.  It is also impossible to tell how much that impacted the season or if there was any at all.

Just because a player is young it doesn’t mean they can not regress.  Also please list a successful player with a .400 BABIP and a high K rate.  Also a majority of players only have about 30 to 50 points above their batting average.  Hiura is nearly triple that.  He is not going to sustain that high BABIP it is impossible.  If his BABIP drops to around .350 he is going to be a liability to the offense.  

[Austin Tatious]

I know some posters will point to good stats for the Brewers' offense or that hitting is down, league-wide. Fair enough.  No question, baseball is the sport where stats are by far the most interesting.  I am a math guy and was always drawn to stats in baseball.  If I had more time, I would pore through all the stats people cite. 

Having said that, I learned baseball in the 1970s and 1980s and I don't fully agree with the notion that our offense is doing well.  Our number 2 hitter is hitting .220 and plays like a 3rd baseman who is an all or nothing guy.  We don't have a number 3 hitter but lately its a .230 hitter.  It's not that I don't like those guys but you want better production out of those spots in the order.  I haven't seen Yelly's exact numbers since he went to leadoff but I suspect he is over .280 with a very solid OBP.  We have some other guys who are solid like Renfroe.  

That is a long way of saying, our offensive lineup has some good pieces but collectively is broken.  But, interestingly, the Brewers have held onto their top hitting prospects.  That tells me that we are looking at the addition of 4-5 new hitters over, say, the next three seasons.  Frelick and Turang (and maybe Ruiz) in 2023, and Chourio may be ready to play in the majors as a 20 year old in 2024 if he stays healthy and on his current course.  Don't sleep on Tyler Black either in due course.   Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, et al., we have some other guys who might make some noise.

And, personally, next year I would install Hiura as our DH and let it rip.  Lot of debate about him, but he has as electric of a bat as we presently have on the roster.  We have so much inconsistency with the lineup.  When it is "one of those days" you get a team just sleepwalking through outs.  Hiura is a guy who can light a spark.  We need more of that IMO.

[Never Outhustled]

33 minutes ago, nate82 said:

They way you said it makes it a strawman argument.  It is also impossible to tell how much that impacted the season or if there was any at all.

Just because a player is young it doesn’t mean they can not regress.  Also please list a successful player with a .400 BABIP and a high K rate.  Also a majority of players only have about 30 to 50 points above their batting average.  Hiura is nearly triple that.  He is not going to sustain that high BABIP it is impossible.  If his BABIP drops to around .350 he is going to be a liability to the offense.  

His K rate is higher than normal. Today is the perfect example of him lowering his K rate, lowering his BABIP, but raising his OPS.

Also, he doesn't need to compare to the majority of players, because the majority doesn't have his bat speed. He's going to continue to do uncommon things, because he is uncommon. Someone might have an incredibly high BAPIP this year, right? It is, I know because Hiura has done it before.

Also, you continue to use the word "regress", but I think it's more applicable to use the word "decline". A player can have positive regression. In fact, that's what Hiura is doing this year. 

[owbc]

Brewers' offense is 2nd in MLB in WRC+ in the second half.

Pitching has been league average. 

Of course when W/L underperform statistics, it usually means that the bullpen is to blame

[NBBrewFan]

Is "second half" the mlb definition (i.e. post- ASG)

or the real world (i.e. games 82-162)?

[BruisedCrew]

Unless wRC+ takes into account the quality of pitchers faced, using it for a small number of games seems to be somewhere between potentially misleading and useless.

We all know that in the 15 games after the ASG the Brewers had very good offensive production (except for a shutout loss) while going 7-1 in the first 8 games and then fell pretty flat while going 1-6 in the next 7 games.

But I think if we look game by game at those 15 games, the quality of pitchers the Brewers faced was quite poor, both starters and relievers. In April and early May, the Brewers fattened up their offensive numbers against pitchers from the Cubs and (especially) the Reds and Pirates. 

Just look at some of the games this week started by Burnes and Woodruff. Yesterday, for example, would you say the Brewers and Reds offenses were equal because they both scored 1 run in 6 innings against the SP, or was the performance of the Brewers offense more anemic because they were facing a starter with an ERA over 4?

IMHO, given the quality (or lack thereof) of the pitchers the Brewers have faced since the ASG their production has been less than should have been expected.

Every segment of the Brewers roster (SP, RP, hitting, and defense) shares some of the blame for the Brewers going 40-42 in their last 82 games. If they don't perform better, the next 5 series are going to kill them. Except for the Cubs (who they've had trouble beating as it is) they are going to be facing pitching and hitting significantly better than they have faced since the break,

[NBBrewFan]

19 hours ago, Never Outhustled said:

Lol, Hiura is 25. If you understood analytics, you'd realize there is no baseline for him to regress to. His baseline has yet to be established. His improved numbers this year might be the regression.

His career OPS is higher than what McCutchen is providing, and that career OPS includes a season that should be considered an outlier because of the human element. Stop repeating your misinformation. 

I recall shortly after the Pandemic year that the consensus was that 2020 was a whacky year and we should probably not pay any attention to it or it should be weighted heavily down.  Now, August 2022, it appears that multiple posters have no problem lumping that into any other data.  The fact that it has creeped into the conversation is usually because it supports a posters point, not as a general principal. I think your point is valid that at 25 we still have a lot of unknown in what his baseline is and it would be great to treat the 2020 data as an outlier for everyone and move on.

[nate82]

Just now, NBBrewFan said:

I recall shortly after the Pandemic year that the consensus was that 2020 was a whacky year and we should probably not pay any attention to it or it should be weighted heavily down.  Now, August 2022, it appears that multiple posters have no problem lumping that into any other data.  The fact that it has creeped into the conversation is usually because it supports a posters point, not as a general principal. I think your point is valid that at 25 we still have a lot of unknown in what his baseline is and it would be great to treat the 2020 data as an outlier for everyone and move on.

If you read what I posted I said combined 2020 and 2021.  If you combine them both you get about a seasons worth of data for Hiura.  

The fact remains that Hiura's BABIP is not sustainable.  

[NBBrewFan]

5 minutes ago, nate82 said:

If you read what I posted I said combined 2020 and 2021.  If you combine them both you get about a seasons worth of data for Hiura.  

The fact remains that Hiura's BABIP is not sustainable.  

Yes, I understand.  The issue just isn't that it's a reduced dataset, it was a game played in empty stadiums with teams isolating and a lot of stress/uncertainty.  Also, as Never Outhustled pointed out he was going through 2021 with his mom going through Cancer treatment.  That data could also be impacted by things outside of baseball.  Sure we can ignore that and say that a 23/24 YO should just shake that off and be mentally tough or we can entertain that it is noisy/poor quality data.

As to his BABIP, yes I don't expect it to continue at that level, but one thing that has been evident is that when he reduces his K% the BABIP drops.  That makes some sense as Ks aren't included in BABIP (so those strikeouts convert to regular outs and his BABIP drops).  The other thing that's true is that as he lowers his K% his wRC+ goes up.  July/August has been his best "month" for K% and his wRC+ is off the charts.  Yes, all of that data is small due to subsetting a small amount of data, but there is some hint that he may be able to give back some BABIP while lowering his K% and still be a productive hitter.  I agree that if he keeps his K% high (like 99th percentile MLB high) that he will likely not have a decent wRC+.