Hiura Slighted and Demoted; Adames hitting #2 with a .289 OBP

[rickh150]

Started this one knowing another Hiura thread is out there, but tying this with Adames…

First off, I was fairly surprised, not shocked, that Hiura was sent down several days ago. I figured he had some good games at the end of June and especially in July.  In fact even now, his OPS is way higher than anyone’s in July (1.194) and .OBP too (.480) in limited appearances (24 PA). End of June wasn’t bad either. For a broader look, his yearly OBP (.354) and OPS (..805) should be considered extra good for him sure, but really almost anyone! How he was sent down had to be because of his almost 47% K rate. His pinch hitting status was awful because of it (4 AB, 4 Ks) too against high heat late relievers. Yet, I fail to understand how Hiura, with his limited defense, was sent to the minors while Adames hits in the #2 spot in the order about daily!

Adames’ numbers are positive with spin when looking at HRs (20) and RBIs (54). His awful numbers overall are more concerning. His AVG. (215), and OBP (.289) are awful. Think about that. Is this #2 hitter stats? He needs to play, I know, as our SS. I am thankful that we have him. But does this scream #2 hitter? Put him at #7 or 8. 

Concluding, I feel Hiura could easily be on this team as a DH right now and part time 1B/2B. His overall numbers have actually been better than Adames, especially when talking about having a top of the order bat. Late June and July even help his case. If strikeouts and contact are your hang up, pinch hit him late innings with Brosseau. If his defense gets you down, play him DH or sub for him late.  In a complex move, I’d like to see Hiura up for Caratini since Severino has no options remaining. However, I’d like Caratini back up in September as the backup when rosters expand to 28 players. Also, Severino cannot be on the postseason squad by rule of his suspension, yet he could be valuable to the team come 2023 with Narvaez likely gone via FA.

Overall, I’m just not understanding the roster and lineup shuffle now. Adames needs to move way down in the order, and Hiura, after showing some signs of life (and while in Nashville), needs to be back up. His .OBP and power are being wasted so Adames can set the table (.289 OBP) for the heart of the order. And if Hiura isn’t your cup of tea, still get Adames out of there and move a hot bat (like Urias—- .July 286 AVG, .373 OBP, and .873 OPS ) up.

[rickh150]

And against righties, he’s hitting .303, OBP .418, and OPS 1.070 in 76 PA.

Awful, just awful, against lefties, though….161/.277/.491

[Jopal78]

Fair point with Adames, his low OBP suggests he shouldn’t be in the 2 hole though his OPS is 4th on the team. 
 

I suspect he bats 2nd for the Left-Right-Left… batting order match up as he is usually followed by Tellez (a lefty).

As for Hiura, no team rosters a player long term who strikes out at a 40% clip. There is zero doubt if Keston had 300+ at bats this year that he’d be leading the majors in Ks.

For a team that scores most of their runs off homers, I’m sure it’s frustrating to demote one of their better homerun hitters, but despite team coaching, private hitting tutelage, etc. the guy strikes out at a rate that doesn’t cut it in MLB.

[djoctagone]

4 hours ago, rickh150 said:

In a complex move, I’d like to see Hiura up for Caratini since Severino has no options remaining. However, I’d like Caratini back up in September as the backup when rosters expand to 28 players. Also, Severino cannot be on the postseason squad by rule of his suspension, yet he could be valuable to the team come 2023 with Narvaez likely gone via FA.

if victor caratini spends less than 20 days on optional assignment, he does not burn his option, and he's credited with a full season of major league service time and pay. also, any player who is optioned to the minor leagues after the third day following labor day shall receive major league service (but not major league salary) for the duration of his optional assignment.

the former is a clever way to keep hiura's bat in the lineup for 20 days and not spite victor caratini too much.

[TheeAirbender]

Some of the Hiura opinions are wild to me. Send down Caratini in the middle of a division race to make room for him? He has been their 4th most valuable position player via fwar in only 50 games and has a 117 wrc+ at catcher. Not to mention Narvaez has been in a large prolonged slump. Hiura has a 43% krate with a 512 babip vs RHP, I'm sorry but the results he's had to this point  vs RHP were not sustainable at the major league level. 

[patrickgpe]

I  was listening to talk radio yesterday and the host suggested the Brewers trade Hiura for Bell. I don't think they need Josh Bell. Also they would be giving up on Hiura for a 2 month rental. He has had success on the MLB level and can mash at triple A. He may just be a AAAA player, but the jury is still out. 

[Playing Catch]

I can't help but feel that the Brewers are in a weird "holding pattern" until after the trade deadline. There are a lot of roster decisions that just feel like they haven't settled on what they want their stretch-run/playoff roster to look like, and I think that includes potential line-up tweaks. I still think that those Hiura-in-LF games were for the benefit of other teams' scouts.

They may end up doing nothing substantial over the deadline, but I think a lot of the awkwardness will settle down after some of these guys get traded, or get healthy (e.g. Topa/Peralta).

[Playing Catch]

Just to add... other than promoting Chourio, they've also got a lot of roster decisions coming up in the minors as well, what with guys deserving promotion and new draftees just weeks away from beginning their careers.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Worrying about Adames' OBP in the second slot is old baseball thinking. Modern thinking says "put your best hitter second" and Adames is the Brewers' best overall hitter. Getting Adames more plate appearances is more valuable than putting a lesser hitter in his place just because he gets on base more often.

[rickh150]

1 hour ago, TheeAirbender said:

Some of the Hiura opinions are wild to me. Send down Caratini in the middle of a division race to make room for him? He has been their 4th most valuable position player via fwar in only 50 games and has a 117 wrc+ at catcher. Not to mention Narvaez has been in a large prolonged slump. Hiura has a 43% krate with a 512 babip vs RHP, I'm sorry but the results he's had to this point  vs RHP were not sustainable at the major league level. 

Against righties he has mashed, I’ll gladly take the Ks if he can get on base over 40% of the time with OPS over 1. And he was hitting well when they dropped him down to AAA. 
Since when has baseball been so down on the high K rate and high OPS? Isn’t this present day baseball? Is that what CC said to him when he left the team, “Man, that OPS needs to be a bit higher if you are going to K so much.” ?

[TheeAirbender]

9 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Against righties he has mashed, I’ll gladly take the Ks if he can get on base over 40% of the time with OPS over 1. And he was hitting well when they dropped him down to AAA. 
Since when has baseball been so down on the high K rate and high OPS? Isn’t this present day baseball? Is that what CC said to him when he left the team, “Man, that OPS needs to be a bit higher if you are going to K so much.” ?

The point is the OPS that he has is not sustainable given the underlying metrics (K rate, BABIP) vs RHP. You can look at the production that he has had all you want, but he is very likely a below average hitter when you give him a large sample size at the major league level. This was seen in both 2020 and 2021!

[Playing Catch]

12 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Worrying about Adames' OBP in the second slot is old baseball thinking. Modern thinking says "put your best hitter second" and Adames is the Brewers' best overall hitter. Getting Adames more plate appearances is more valuable than putting a lesser hitter in his place just because he gets on base more often.

These two things are not mutually exclusive. Often times, a team's "best hitter" is the one with the best OBP. This isn't "old" thinking, and I think it's perfectly reasonable to want more OBP in the two-hole, just as it may be reasonable to want Adames' SLG deeper in the lineup.

I don't particularly care about the Brewer's lineup on a day-to-day basis anyway because the lineup seems to be pretty balanced in terms of quality. Just a lot of average hitters in this lineup. May as well just go L/R/L/R, or consider baserunning ability. I think, in fact, that Adames' baserunning is just as much a factor on his hitting 2nd.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, Playing Catch said:

These two things are not mutually exclusive. Often times, a team's "best hitter" is the one with the best OBP. This isn't "old" thinking, and I think it's perfectly reasonable to want more OBP in the two-hole, just as it may be reasonable to want Adames' SLG deeper in the lineup.

I don't particularly care about the Brewer's lineup on a day-to-day basis anyway because the lineup seems to be pretty balanced in terms of quality. Just a lot of average hitters in this lineup. May as well just go L/R/L/R, or consider baserunning ability. I think, in fact, that Adames' baserunning is just as much a factor on his hitting 2nd.

Oh, I agree more OBP would be useful - to the team in general, really - I'm just saying there currently isn't a better option in the second slot than Adames.

Go pick up Bell and put him there? Sure, absolutely. But as the roster stands right now, Yelich/Adames/Tellez is the best the Brewers got.

[rickh150]

19 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Worrying about Adames' OBP in the second slot is old baseball thinking. Modern thinking says "put your best hitter second" and Adames is the Brewers' best overall hitter. Getting Adames more plate appearances is more valuable than putting a lesser hitter in his place just because he gets on base more often.

Old baseball thinking? Ok. Then with new age hip baseball stats, Rowdy and Renfroe have been hitting better this year in about every measurable stat, right? OPS is still very telling.
 I actually don’t see that much of a difference between Hiura and Adames. Actually, imo, I’d rather have Hiura hitting #2 this year, based on what he has actually done of late at the plate. I think it is worth it to finally give him some rope to perform somewhat regularly, not just a day here or there. And the DH spot has been a whole anyways.
Drop Adames since he is like our 4th or 5th best hitter.

[Jopal78]

21 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Against righties he has mashed, I’ll gladly take the Ks if he can get on base over 40% of the time with OPS over 1. And he was hitting well when they dropped him down to AAA. 
Since when has baseball been so down on the high K rate and high OPS? Isn’t this present day baseball? Is that what CC said to him when he left the team, “Man, that OPS needs to be a bit higher if you are going to K so much.” ?

Just like the metrics state batting average is irrelevant, teams really don't roster players long-term who cannot hit above .200, same deal with strikeouts. It doesn't matter if its "old baseball," "present-day baseball," if you strike out greater than 35% of the time, a player is going to have tough sledding remaining on a major league roster. 

[rickh150]

3 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Just like the metrics state batting average is irrelevant, teams really don't roster players long-term who cannot hit above .200, same deal with strikeouts. It doesn't matter if its "old baseball," "present-day baseball," if you strike out greater than 35% of the time, a player is going to have tough sledding remaining on a major league roster. 

Why? 

[TheeAirbender]

Just now, rickh150 said:

Why? 

Why what? It can't be hard to understand that if you can't make contact all that often you will have less ability to impact the game in a positive way. His outcomes when making contact this year have been extremely lucky to this point. Hes basically been Joey Gallo with better luck, and you can go ask a Yankee fan what they think about Joey Gallo right now. (I'd be in favor of the Brewers acquiring Gallo for CF but thats a different discussion lol).

[patrickgpe]

37 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Worrying about Adames' OBP in the second slot is old baseball thinking. Modern thinking says "put your best hitter second" and Adames is the Brewers' best overall hitter. Getting Adames more plate appearances is more valuable than putting a lesser hitter in his place just because he gets on base more often.

I agree, also I also don't think the order of your lineup matters much. Yes you want to get your better hitters an extra atbat. But the entire you need to put your best power hitter 4th and your fastest guy 1st stuff is just antiquated. 

 

[rickh150]

Hiura should be a bit bitter, imo. How Adames is revered at #2 for what he does- hit for power and Ks at like 27% rate is similar to Hiura who has hit for power and Ks a lot. One isn’t that different than the other. One plays everyday batting 2nd. The other is in Nashville.

[Jopal78]

2 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Old baseball thinking? Ok. Then with new age hip baseball stats, Rowdy and Renfroe have been hitting better this year in about every measurable stat, right? OPS is still very telling.
 I actually don’t see that much of a difference between Hiura and Adames. Actually, imo, I’d rather have Hiura hitting #2 this year, based on what he has actually done of late at the plate. I think it is worth it to finally give him some rope to perform somewhat regularly, not just a day here or there. And the DH spot has been a whole anyways.
Drop Adames since he is like our 4th or 5th best hitter.

Just come out and say it! You like Hiura and wished he played everyday.  

It's fine, that's part of being a fan liking certain players better than others, and imagining what could be/have been.

However, don't post  non-sense suggesting there isn't a difference between Adames and Hiura. First of all, Hiura without question is a butcher in the field, to the point they've moved him to LF to minimize the times they have to count on his defense. Adames has nearly twice as many at bats as Hiura, nobody knows if Hiura could keep up his numbers playing everyday. Probably not since he doesn't hit lefties, and he hasn't really hit with any consistency since his rookie year and the last couple weeks of June 2022. 

As for giving Hiura "some rope": I've been following the Brewers since the late 1980s and this is the longest stretch of competitive baseball they've had since that time. The Brewers have given him nearly 1000 plate appearances to establish himself as a regular and he has failed to do so. Moreover, those 1000 plate appearances have been for teams that went to the playoffs including a couple of division winners. 

Pro-sports are a cut throat business, and the Brewers are trying to win as many games as they can right now. Maybe it seems unfair that Hiura was drafted by the Brewers instead of say the Marlins where they could plug him in everyday no matter what because there was no expectation on the team to win many games. But after nearly 1000 plate appearances its ridiculous to suggest Milwaukee hasn't given him a fair shot. For what it's worth I hoped he'd be the next middle of the order slugger like Ryan Braun, but sure doesn't look like that's going to happen. 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

23 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Old baseball thinking? Ok. Then with new age hip baseball stats, Rowdy and Renfroe have been hitting better this year in about every measurable stat, right? OPS is still very telling.
 I actually don’t see that much of a difference between Hiura and Adames. Actually, imo, I’d rather have Hiura hitting #2 this year, based on what he has actually done of late at the plate. I think it is worth it to finally give him some rope to perform somewhat regularly, not just a day here or there. And the DH spot has been a whole anyways.
Drop Adames since he is like our 4th or 5th best hitter.

Put Hiura second and watch Yelich, Keston, and Tellez be completely taken out of the game in later innings as opposing managers exploit their .689, .491, and .634 OPSes against LHP.

It would be ridiculously easy to neutralize the top of the Brewers order and every manager would do it.

[rickh150]

18 minutes ago, patrickgpe said:

I agree, also I also don't think the order of your lineup matters much. Yes you want to get your better hitters an extra atbat. But the entire you need to put your best power hitter 4th and your fastest guy 1st stuff is just antiquated. 

 

When people just say “old school” or “just antiquated” without a fairly good reason, red flags go up. An explanation would be helpful.

Wouldnt everyone want higher OPS guys batting higher? Is OPS old school too? Isn’t that a pretty good overall stat to merit worth? I just read batting avg doesn’t matter in one post, and another said that a guy with a batting average lower than .200 should expect to get demoted. Well Adames is batting .217. Then I see “Best hitter” from someone else too. 
Adames puts ball in play a little better than Hiura, and Hiura has somewhat power stats than Adames,  They aren’t that different this year.
One hits second daily for a playoff team. The other is in Nashville. I just can’t see the logic.

[TheeAirbender]

My red flags go up when you can't distinguish between the quality of hitters Hiura and Adames are.

[rickh150]

15 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Just come out and say it! You like Hiura and wished he played everyday.  

It's fine, that's part of being a fan liking certain players better than others, and imagining what could be/have been.

However, don't post  non-sense suggesting there isn't a difference between Adames and Hiura. First of all, Hiura without question is a butcher in the field, to the point they've moved him to LF to minimize the times they have to count on his defense. Adames has nearly twice as many at bats as Hiura, nobody knows if Hiura could keep up his numbers playing everyday. Probably not since he doesn't hit lefties, and he hasn't really hit with any consistency since his rookie year and the last couple weeks of June 2022. 

As for giving Hiura "some rope": I've been following the Brewers since the late 1980s and this is the longest stretch of competitive baseball they've had since that time. The Brewers have given him nearly 1000 plate appearances to establish himself as a regular and he has failed to do so. Moreover, those 1000 plate appearances have been for teams that went to the playoffs including a couple of division winners. 

Pro-sports are a cut throat business, and the Brewers are trying to win as many games as they can right now. Maybe it seems unfair that Hiura was drafted by the Brewers instead of say the Marlins where they could plug him in everyday no matter what because there was no expectation on the team to win many games. But after nearly 1000 plate appearances its ridiculous to suggest Milwaukee hasn't given him a fair shot. For what it's worth I hoped he'd be the next middle of the order slugger like Ryan Braun, but sure doesn't look like that's going to happen. 

 

I really am not a Hiura fan. I just think he could help us this year.

Here it is, he does not need to play a position this year. DH. He also has hit well this year. He was hitting well when he was sent down and has hit (I believe) overall for the year. 

[rickh150]

Just now, TheeAirbender said:

My red flags go up when you can't distinguish between the quality of hitters Hiura and Adames are.

Another. You explain it to me with stats this year, please.