Game Thread (7/30/2022): Brewers (Lauer) at Red Sox (Pivetta) - 3:10 PM CDT

[CdrbrgMark]

It's a good thing we can hit HR's once in a while. Otherwise our men LOB and stranded RISP would look worse than they do anyways.

[BruisedCrew]

5 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I think what @Brock Beauchampmeant is that they're increasingly looking like a locked-in playoff team, not that they're actually locked-in...

Maybe that’s what he meant, but it isn’t what he said.

But, if it is what he meant it would still be wrong. 

[yourout]

What an awful at bat by Yelich

[nate82]

Yelich and Braun frustrate me the most with their watching 1st pitch fastballs down the middle.  Only positive this season for frustration on this is Braun is not playing.

[BruisedCrew]

Time for Adames to deliver after a few untimely K’s earlier in the game. 
 

Sox are looking to K him again, walk Tellez and fo after MCutchen. 

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Maybe that’s what he meant, but it isn’t what he said.

But, if it is what he meant it would still be wrong. 

I don't think it would. Would you or any reasonable baseball analyst expect them to miss the playoffs at this point, with the way they're playing and how they're set to get some key guys back? I don't think so. 

[Brewcrew82]

Thank you Willy. 

[BruisedCrew]

These innings of having second and third with nobody out and only scoring one run are not that satisfying. 
 

But at least they got one. 

[sveumrules]

18 minutes ago, BallFour said:

 

I remember 2014 very vividly.

On July 30 2014, FanGraphs saw the three NLC contenders as relatively evenly matched in terms of playoff/division odds…

MIL (60-49, 32% D | 58% PO)

PIT (57-50, 33% D | 56% PO)

STL (56-50, 32% D | 58% PO)

Based just on their record, the Brewers should have had better odds, but the computers thought they were playing over their head to the point that their 2 to 2.5 game lead was essentially meaningless over the remaining two months.

This year there is one less team competing for the division, one more team getting into the playoffs & the 2022 Brewers are a better team than the 2014 team was. That is reflected in the projections…

FG has MKE (80% D | 91% PO) vs STL (20% D | 51% PO).

BPro has MKE (82% D | 93% PO) vs STL (18% D | 54 PO%).

538 has MKE (69% D | 84% PO) vs STL (31% D | 61% PO)

Of course nothing is certain until the math says it is, but with 7 NL teams (8 if you want to count SFG still) competing for 6 spots & only 1 team competing for the Division, the Brewers record since the break has definitely strengthened what was an already pretty strong playoff positioning.

[CdrbrgMark]

Hey,hey, a RISP scores, even tho it's on a sac fly!!

[willie key]

13 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I don't think it would. Would you or any reasonable baseball analyst expect them to miss the playoffs at this point, with the way they're playing and how they're set to get some key guys back? I don't think so. 

With ten games against the dodgers and Yankees left plus whatever they have against the cardinals, a three game lead can turned around in a hurry if they fall off.    Not saying they will

plus three against the Mets too     Ooof

 

but I would like to build up as big a cushion as possible

[Brewcrew82]

Willy is a great defensive SS. 

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, willie key said:

With ten games against the dodgers and Yankees left plays whatever they have against the cardinals a three game lead can turned around in a hurry if they fall off.    Not saying they well

 

but I would like to build up as big a cushion as possible

I think you're misunderstanding what I'm saying. Is it entirely possible for them to miss out on the playoffs? Of course, and given how the Brewers have broken my heart over the years, I will definitely be waiting until the last minute to celebrate. But, if you conducted a poll of MLB analysts right now, almost all of them would say that the Brewers are going to be one of the 6 playoff teams from the NL. 

[sveumrules]

8 minutes ago, CdrbrgMark said:

Hey,hey, a RISP scores, even tho it's on a sac fly!!

The Brewers 128 wRC+ with RISP is the best in MLB this year. They’ve been scoring them with frequency.

The problem has been getting there, 883 PAs with RISP is 24th.

[BruisedCrew]

9 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I don't think it would. Would you or any reasonable baseball analyst expect them to miss the playoffs at this point, with the way they're playing and how they're set to get some key guys back? I don't think so. 

Who said anything about expecting them to miss the playoffs?

There is a huge middle ground between being expected to miss the playoffs and being a near given to be in them. The Brewers are in a good position to make the playoffs, but they still have a long way to go.

I don’t think any reasonable baseball analyst would look at how a team has played in one week and ignore what they did the two months before that.

I’d love to see Counsell’s reaction if someone said to him today “Your team has played really well since the break. It looks like you’re on the verge of making the postseason a given”. 

[willie key]

I still think it’s a joke if the brewers win the division (which they should) and have to play a three game series against the cardinals.     This new playoff system is terrible.    Terrible

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Who said anything about expecting them to miss the playoffs?

There is a huge middle ground between being expected to miss the playoffs and being a near given to be in them. The Brewers are in a good position to make the playoffs, but they still have a long way to go.

I don’t think any reasonable baseball analyst would look at how a team has played in one week and ignore what they did the two months before that.

I’d love to see Counsell’s reaction if someone said to him today “Your team has played really well since the break. It looks like you’re on the verge of making the postseason a given”. 

Again, there's a difference between looking/feeling like a playoff lock (from a fan/analyst perspective) and literally being a playoff lock.

[ReverendBrewmeister]

Some stressful pitching from Williams, but a scoreless 8th again. Should be a well-deserved day off for him tomorrow. 

[Brewcrew82]

Devin is incredible. 

[willie key]

Good job devin.    He will definitely not be available tomorrow 

[CdrbrgMark]

So is it gonna be Hader in the 9th? Not sure I'm comfortable with that.

[willie key]

I hate this feeling that a lead like this isn’t safe or automatic with hader coming in.         I’ve been spoiled

 

 

[CdrbrgMark]

Hader warming up in the BP................

[Brewcrew82]

I love this version of the offense. 

[BruisedCrew]

These add on runs are a joy to behold.