Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)

[MNBrew]

Seems like he just made it up.  That a guy like this has **this** big of a scoop yet no one else anywhere -- not one of the big-time national guys (Rosenthal, Morosi, etc.) -- has mentioned it suggests it's likely a bunch of hot air.

[Robocaller]

10 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I don't think that site is accurate when it comes to actual player values at all. It's a fun, fan-created thing that should very much not be taken anywhere close to seriously. They've been so, so wrong on their values so many times.

I believe they base it on some statistics of recent contracts. It's a model, so it will never be exactly correct in predicting trades, and will be far off for some. 

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

15 hours ago, nate82 said:

They have not been so so wrong on their values please provide facts if you are going to say something like that.  They have been off but not by much really. 

All you have to do is go back a couple weeks to the Brewers trade for Contreras. It is obvious that they were undervaluing Estuary Ruiz pretty significantly. Also, going back a little further, they missed so much on the Grisham/Davies for Urias/Lauer deal that they actually retroactively went in and adjusted their player values (raising Grisham significantly and lowering Urias significantly) to make it appear as though the deal was more even, instead of being lopsided in the Brewers favor.

It is a fun thing, but it is 100% put together by fans, and is FAR from scientific or accurate.

[nate82]

2 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

All you have to do is go back a couple weeks to the Brewers trade for Contreras. It is obvious that they were undervaluing Estuary Ruiz pretty significantly. Also, going back a little further, they missed so much on the Grisham/Davies for Urias/Lauer deal that they actually retroactively went in and adjusted their player values (raising Grisham significantly and lowering Urias significantly) to make it appear as though the deal was more even, instead of being lopsided in the Brewers favor.

It is a fun thing, but it is 100% put together by fans, and is FAR from scientific or accurate.

The Contreras trade nearly every reporter questioned Ruiz's value so I don't see how that is incorrect on the site.  Ruiz's value to the A's was far higher than what most teams would have put it as and most sports writers would put it as.  The owner of the site commented on the trade and was confused by what the A's were doing. 

The Grisham/Davies for Urias/Lauer deal was pretty close and wouldn't you want them to update the information if they believe they got it wrong on the values? 

The site isn't 100% accurate and it is fairly scientific on how they are coming up with their values.  I believe they are about 90% accurate on their valuation.  The Hader trade was very accurate on their site along with the Soto, Turner/Scherzer trade and a bunch of others were very close in value. 

There will always be trades that don't make sense because teams make trades that don't make sense.  The Aramis Ramirez trade made no sense for the Pirates to do with the Cubs but they still made that trade.  GM's and teams make dumb trades from time to time.  You can't account for that in a calculation.  Yes the A's made a dumb trade to acquire Ruiz.  They could have acquired Ruiz in a completely separate trade but chose not to. 

[sveumrules]

Ruiz has proven twice now to have divisive value.

First we got robbed for only getting him and Gasser as the prospects back for Hader.

Then we committed robbery to turn him into Contreras plus.

BTV value seems to be in line with the consensus, but clearly the A’s, Brewers (& likely other organizations as well) value him more highly than the consensus.

If he gets a full season PAs with the A’s we’ll have a lot better idea whose valuation was more accurate.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

28 minutes ago, nate82 said:

The Contreras trade nearly every reporter questioned Ruiz's value so I don't see how that is incorrect on the site.  Ruiz's value to the A's was far higher than what most teams would have put it as and most sports writers would put it as.  The owner of the site commented on the trade and was confused by what the A's were doing. 

The Grisham/Davies for Urias/Lauer deal was pretty close and wouldn't you want them to update the information if they believe they got it wrong on the values? 

The site isn't 100% accurate and it is fairly scientific on how they are coming up with their values.  I believe they are about 90% accurate on their valuation.  The Hader trade was very accurate on their site along with the Soto, Turner/Scherzer trade and a bunch of others were very close in value. 

There will always be trades that don't make sense because teams make trades that don't make sense.  The Aramis Ramirez trade made no sense for the Pirates to do with the Cubs but they still made that trade.  GM's and teams make dumb trades from time to time.  You can't account for that in a calculation.  Yes the A's made a dumb trade to acquire Ruiz.  They could have acquired Ruiz in a completely separate trade but chose not to. 

The Grisham/Davies for Urias/Lauer deal appeared to be highway robbery in the Brewers' favor before they retroactively went in and adjusted values about 30 minutes after the trade went down. 

You are correct ... teams make dumb trades from time to time. But, I am going to trust an MLB team's valuation of a player over an open source website run by fans every time. 

BTV is a fun site to mess with if you are bored. But there are people out there who treat it as gospel, and it is far from that, in my opinion.

[CheezWizHed]

The site at least seems to be pretty accurate for the "typical" trades.  While not "scientific", I'd imagine there is a learning algorithm behind the scenes to reflect some reality based on past trades.

As for my thought with Yelich, I was thinking salary swaps instead of plan cash as someone above mentioned.  But per the site, Yelich and Tatis have almost inverted trade values:

Y: -112.2

T: 112.5

I was expecting a more neutral (zero) trade level for Yelich and not such a negative. So even if SD wanted to dump Tatis for some reason and needed an OF, Yelich probably doesn't work there.  Even if the site trade values are off a bit, I doubt they are off that much. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

The site at least seems to be pretty accurate for the "typical" trades.  While not "scientific", I'd imagine there is a learning algorithm behind the scenes to reflect some reality based on past trades.

As for my thought with Yelich, I was thinking salary swaps instead of plan cash as someone above mentioned.  But per the site, Yelich and Tatis have almost inverted trade values:

Y: -112.2

T: 112.5

I was expecting a more neutral (zero) trade level for Yelich and not such a negative. So even if SD wanted to dump Tatis for some reason and needed an OF, Yelich probably doesn't work there.  Even if the site trade values are off a bit, I doubt they are off that much. 

Right ... valuations that don't make sense. Yes, Tatis is 7 years younger than Yelich, but he's locked into a deal that is more than double the contract that Yelich signed, and pays him through his age 35 season in 2034. Yelich's deal pays him through age 36 in 2029. It seems that Yelich's down last few years have negatively affected his value at a MUCH greater ratio than Tatis missing all of 2022 according to that website. I don't deny that Tatis should have more value moving forward based on his age alone, but saying that Yelich has $-112.2 million in value, while saying Tatis has $112.5 million is pure foolish poppycock.  

[sveumrules]

Benintendi 2020-22
1111 PAs | 110 wRC+ | 4.1 WAR

Yelich 2020-22
1393 PAs | 108 wRC+ | 4.5 WAR

Benintendi just signed for 5/75 vs 6/162.5 remaining for Yelich, so that’s a difference of $87.5M.

Throw in however much negative value Yelich’s full NTC carries as another obstacle to any deal and the -112.5 number on BTV feels like it’s in the right range to me.

Figuring out Tatis is a fair bit trickier. Has 12/324 left on his deal with a full NTC and had injury issues before wrecking his motorcycle multiple times & getting busted for PEDs.

But there is no doubt about the quality of his play when healthy with a 153 wRC+ ranking 5th since 2019 while his 13.6 WAR still ranks 26th despite missing 270 games during his career.

[jay87shot]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Right ... valuations that don't make sense. Yes, Tatis is 7 years younger than Yelich, but he's locked into a deal that is more than double the contract that Yelich signed, and pays him through his age 35 season in 2034. Yelich's deal pays him through age 36 in 2029. It seems that Yelich's down last few years have negatively affected his value at a MUCH greater ratio than Tatis missing all of 2022 according to that website. I don't deny that Tatis should have more value moving forward based on his age alone, but saying that Yelish has $-112.2 million in value, while saying Tatis has $112.5 million is pure foolish poppycock.  

I did the math earlier this offseason and if Yeli is a 2 WAR player thru the end of the contract he would be around a -50-60 value. A rough estimate of Tatis (324+112/8) has Tatis at a 55-ish WAR though his contract that is a 4-5 WAR avg.  My guess would be that is a bit high, even if the roids weren't a big factor in his success. Making a value on a 12 year contract of a guy who didn't play for a year and is coming of roids in some capacity is impossible. 

[jay87shot]

I think trading Keston for a decent reliever with 1 year left could work well.

Jake Diekman, Amir Garrett, Jardin Garcia could be solid lefty options and I am sure there would be a handful of righty options. I am worried about our lefty pen situation, Milner was decent but is far from a sure thing to be reliable all year. After that we have nothing.

[Robocaller]

10 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

All you have to do is go back a couple weeks to the Brewers trade for Contreras. It is obvious that they were undervaluing Estuary Ruiz pretty significantly.

No, it's obvious that the A's overvalued Ruiz enormously. Now, maybe they'll end up being right, but probably not. Any site like BTV can only give average values. Making good trades is all about identifying GMs who value your players more than you do (or value their own players less than you do). Sometimes those discrepancies between values are huge.

 

 

[Devinep]

8 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

The Grisham/Davies for Urias/Lauer deal appeared to be highway robbery in the Brewers' favor before they retroactively went in and adjusted values about 30 minutes after the trade went down. 

You are correct ... teams make dumb trades from time to time. But, I am going to trust an MLB team's valuation of a player over an open source website run by fans every time. 

BTV is a fun site to mess with if you are bored. But there are people out there who treat it as gospel, and it is far from that, in my opinion.

You mean Joey Weiner and Tyrone Taylor don’t have about the same value? Gasp! 

[brewmann04]

one guy i like to add is Alex Reyes to the pen

[Redd Vencher]

9 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

The Grisham/Davies for Urias/Lauer deal appeared to be highway robbery in the Brewers' favor before they retroactively went in and adjusted values about 30 minutes after the trade went down. 

You are correct ... teams make dumb trades from time to time. But, I am going to trust an MLB team's valuation of a player over an open source website run by fans every time. 

BTV is a fun site to mess with if you are bored. But there are people out there who treat it as gospel, and it is far from that, in my opinion.

They missed on the Urias/Lauer for Grisham/Davies because they use the public prospect lists, and Grisham slipped past and graduated before the lists could catch up. The list makers said he would have been a top 50 prospect going into 2020 had he not burned through his rookie status. The way BTV handled it and nerfed Urias' trade vslue post trade was a poor move on their part.

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, Devinep said:

You mean Joey Weiner and Tyrone Taylor don’t have about the same value? Gasp! 

I don’t think Wiemer and Taylor having similar value is that far off.

Since 2020 Tyrone is one of 116 OF with at least 600 PA, essentially four per team.

His 3.6 WAR ranks 61st ahead of Conforto (3.5), Haniger (3.3), Profar (3.1), Castellanos (3.0), Avisail (2.8), Joc (2.2), Bellinger (2.1), etc.

Not bad for a CF-capable “fourth outfielder” still making league minimum with four years of team control remaining.

Sure, Wiemer has higher upside, but also still has some bust factor that has to be considered. TT doesn’t have that same upside, but he’s already established a higher floor as a legit MLB OF.

Wiemer would have higher value to a rebuilding team looking for future value, while TT would have higher value to a team looking for present value.

[DR28]

3 hours ago, brewmann04 said:

one guy i like to add is Alex Reyes to the pen

OMG yes!!

I wouldnt mind Hirokazu Sawamura, he's been pretty good last 2 seasons.

But............ We signed Alex Claudio to MiLB deal today, so that is probably it for bullpen additions.

Looks like really not spending any money this winter, what a joke... Gonna waste elite rotation once again.

[brewmann04]

Fans should be watching this team from home at this point.

[Jake McKibbin]

I just posted about an article I saw the other day relating to the Brewers updating the FB velo in their bullpen. I think they'd be mildly content with their bullpen at the moment, particularly if Abner Uribe can stay healthy, but I'd imagine if they can an Alex Reyes style player could be exactly what they'd go in on, depending on the price

[jay87shot]

I like the idea of trading Lauer now that we have Miley. He has had 2 very solid years and his FIP suggested he is due for some regression. I doubt we could package him with Urias for a solid 3rd baseman (or with Winker/Rowdy for a 1st baseman).

Lauer to Arizona for Deyvison de Los Santos would be sweet. Maybe more likely for AJ Vuckovic and Ryne Nelson

 

[jay87shot]

Any ideas on combining some depth pieces for a high quality piece or prospect. The Gregory Soto deal to Philly is my blueprint a couple pieces that don't have high ceilings to a club that needs some depth for a higher end piece. My package from us would include some combination of Brosseau, Huira. Toro, Miller, Small, Houser, some RP, maybe Taylor if we get an OF back.

Keston, Small, and JC Mejia to KC for Scott Barlow

Keston and Houser to Baltimore for Coby Mayo 

Keston and Small for to Wash for Tanner Rainey

Any other decent ideas

[sveumrules]

 

35 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Any ideas on combining some depth pieces for a high quality piece or prospect. The Gregory Soto deal to Philly is my blueprint a couple pieces that don't have high ceilings to a club that needs some depth for a higher end piece. My package from us would include some combination of Brosseau, Huira. Toro, Miller, Small, Houser, some RP, maybe Taylor if we get an OF back.

Keston, Small, and JC Mejia to KC for Scott Barlow

Keston and Houser to Baltimore for Coby Mayo 

Keston and Small for to Wash for Tanner Rainey

Any other decent ideas

Among 287 relievers with at least 50 IP over the last two years Scott Barlow is at 148 IP (2nd), 5.2 rWAR (1st), 3.0 fWAR (10th) and +4.28 WPA (8th) with a 54 ERA- | 78 FIP- | 85 xFIP-. 

That is worlds better than Soto at 124 IP (36th), 0.5 rWAR (254th), 0.7 fWAR (129th) and +1.73 WPA (61st) with an 82 ERA- | 95 FIP- | 108 xFIP-.

Any deal for Barlow probably starts with Mitchell or Wiemer.

Rainey had TJ in August, would rather just see if Small can figure out his command than deal him for someone out most of 2023.

I’d do the Mayo deal, but would guess BAL would want Lauer over Houser and someone with more value/control than Hiura for the 2nd piece, at which point it prolly isn’t worth it anymore from the MIL side.

[DR28]

I wouldnt mind getting Kim from SD to play 2B... Curious what his cost would be.

[jay87shot]

19 hours ago, DR28 said:

I wouldnt mind getting Kim from SD to play 2B... Curious what his cost would be.

My guess would be something close but less to what the D-backs got for Varsho. Both were 5ish WAR players mostly from defense with decent but not great bats. Varsho is only a year younger and both have the same control time, however Kim is owed more money. My guess would be maybe a lower top 100 prospect and 1 or 2 other decent pieces, I am sure the Pads are trying to get a good mlb ready player in arby who will help bring the salary number down but help contribute. 

[Jake McKibbin]

28 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

My guess would be something close but less to what the D-backs got for Varsho. Both were 5ish WAR players mostly from defense with decent but not great bats. Varsho is only a year younger and both have the same control time, however Kim is owed more money. My guess would be maybe a lower top 100 prospect and 1 or 2 other decent pieces, I am sure the Pads are trying to get a good mlb ready player in arby who will help bring the salary number down but help contribute. 

Kim was 3.7 WAR but definitely played up a little, and I dont think he'll have another season like that, plus the bats poor. I'd say if you want premium defense and a stable 2 WAR you'll probably get that from Turang, who I'd imagine will put up similar numbers