Game Thread (9/29/2022): Marlins (Garrett) at Brewers (Lauer) - 6:40 PM CDT

[Brewcrew82]

Thank you, Keegan Thompson. Fly the W (only time you'll ever hear me say that)!

[BruisedCrew]

Cubs win 2-0 to sweep the season series over the Phils 6-0. 
 

Phillies scored 3 runs in this week’s series. 

[willie key]

Wow

[MrTPlush]

[Hopper]

So even though we are currently tied with Philly, we lose the tiebreaker, so we have to finish one full game above them to get in, correct?

[YelichPosse]

Just now, Hopper said:

So even though we are currently tied with Philly, we lose the tiebreaker, so we have to finish one full game above them to get in, correct?

correct. however, tonight we will have a game in hand (hopefully a win) - which means they will be chasing us in theory. but we do need to finish ahead - a tie is no good due to losing the season series.

[Eye Black]

The Phillies went 0-6 against the Cubs this season. The rare season series sweep. 

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

Should have moved it to Sunday. Them blowing all their pitching before facing the Astros would have been real beneficial

They have a potentially interesting situation setting up there. 

The forecast for DC is for rain and showers all weekend, starting tomorrow. It looks like they want to start playing tomorrow afternoon and do the best they can to get all four games in in three days. 

That raises the question of what they would do if they just can’t get all of the games in. The only real option would seem to be to have the Phils come back to DC to play the Nats on Thursday If it is needed to decide the playoff spot. 

[willie key]

So is lauer on the only pitch two innings thing again.   Or can he go farther.     I’m assuming Ashby is going to have to pitch today

[Outlander]

The Nats have incentive to win then so they can start the offseason

[owbc]

 

3 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

They have a potentially interesting situation setting up there. 

The forecast for DC is for rain and showers all weekend, starting tomorrow. It looks like they want to start playing tomorrow afternoon and do the best they can to get all four games in in three days. 

That raises the question of what they would do if they just can’t get all of the games in. The only real option would seem to be to have the Phils come back to DC to play the Nats on Thursday If it is needed to decide the playoff spot. 

They might be able to get the first game in tomorrow but it will be close. The weather on Sat/Sun looks better but not a guarantee, still some rain around. They should probably keep trying to play the doubleheader every day this weekend until they get it in. 

[MrTPlush]

1 minute ago, BruisedCrew said:

They have a potentially interesting situation setting up there. 

The forecast for DC is for rain and showers all weekend, starting tomorrow. It looks like they want to start playing tomorrow afternoon and do the best they can to get all four games in in three days. 

That raises the question of what they would do if they just can’t get all of the games in. The only real option would seem to be to have the Phils come back to DC to play the Nats on Thursday If it is needed to decide the playoff spot. 

I imagine they can get all the games in...though tomorrow seems worse for two games to be played versus Saturday. But I figure they know that and want as many opportunities to get that doubleheader in as possible. I doubt it rains enough to not squeeze in all the games.

[MrTPlush]

Did a Game 162 happen after the regular season really recent? Or did that game just not end up mattering...thus it was canceled completely. 

I don't think such a game is of any benefit to the Brewers, so hopefully it doesn't happen. 

[Eye Black]

Per FanGraphs, on September 14th the Phillies had a 96.3% chance to make the playoffs and the Brewers had a 21.4% chance. In the two weeks since the Phillies have gone 3-10 while the Brewers have gone 7-5. The Phillies playoff odds are now down to 58.8% while the Brewers are up to 44.5%. 

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, Eye Black said:

Per FanGraphs, on September 14th the Phillies had a 96.3% chance to make the playoffs and the Brewers had a 21.4% chance. In the two weeks since the Phillies have gone 3-10 while the Brewers have gone 7-5. The Phillies playoff odds are now down to 58.8% while the Brewers are up to 44.5%. 

 

[Eye Black]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

 

I like those odds even better!

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, Eye Black said:

I like those odds even better!

Yeah. Updated with today's result. 538 also had the Phillies as a 90% playoff favorite, too, not that long ago. 

[bucks2281]

Phillies and Nationals split DH has been moved up to Friday 

[treego14]

If Hadre can be a Padre,

then Lauer can be a Brewer!

Let's pass the Phils ...

this is for real ...

no more drills ...

I got the playoff feel!

[JRob1125]

SD and Philly have fairly tough schedules ahead. I like our chances.

[Robocaller]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

If the Cubs do pull it out, I would give it a greater than 50% chance as the Marlins, despite their pitching, are a really bad team. 

ESPN has our chance at 44.5%.  Not sure why.

[Robocaller]

1 hour ago, willie key said:

So is lauer on the only pitch two innings thing again.   Or can he go farther.     I’m assuming Ashby is going to have to pitch today

I'd split up the two LHP if I could. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

8 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

ESPN has our chance at 44.5%.  Not sure why.

Final WC spot btwn east coast team & team from the midwest not in Chicago.

I watch ESPN if they're airing a college hoops or college football game that I want to see. Period.

[Robocaller]

8 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Final WC spot btwn east coast team & team from the midwest not in Chicago.

I watch ESPN if they're airing a college hoops or college football game that I want to see. Period.

I'm sure they have an algorithm. It's not some guy just guessing a number.

[Robocaller]

16 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

ESPN has our chance at 44.5%.  Not sure why.

And now it's 45.1% Did they run more simulations or something?