2023 NFL Discussion Thread

[OldSchoolSnapper]

At face value the Bears trade looks nice, except Justin Fields most likely sucks and if they miss out on Mahomes II again at #1, none of it will matter. 

I was hoping all along they buy into their own hype train that they don't need to draft a QB #1 because I really believe they should have done it anyway. 

I thinks Fields ceiling is not far off what we've already seen. He's fine and will last a while bouncing around, but I don't think he's "the guy."

[madbad2000]

7 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

At face value the Bears trade looks nice, except Justin Fields most likely sucks and if they miss out on Mahomes II again at #1, none of it will matter. 

I was hoping all along they buy into their own hype train that they don't need to draft a QB #1 because I really believe they should have done it anyway. 

I thinks Fields ceiling is not far off what we've already seen. He's fine and will last a while bouncing around, but I don't think he's "the guy."

The Bears trade looks fantastic if they believe in Fields and he becomes the star he is capable of becoming and the trade also looks fantastic if he crumbles into nothing.  If he increases his passing only a bit, they have their WR1 and more picks to keeping building up around him next year.  If he fails, they are likely picking high again and have additional capital to try to get Williams or Maye while already having a WR1 to help the new rookie.  

I think we obviously disagree on Fields ceiling.  There are maybe 3 QBs in history that have the playmaking ability with their feet to single handedly destroy defenses.  Fields already has a great deep ball and has shown success in college with passing at a high level.  It's easy to forget he got hamstrung by the Nagy experiment year 1, he had a new system last year with a severe lack of protection and weapons to help him out.  Hard to hit timing throws when you're constantly fighting off defenders in your face immediately.  I fully expect that to improve and Fields will get the Hurts hype all year long.  Fields is a throw first QB that has amazing running ability and not the opposite that casual fans/observers seem to think he is.  That along make his ceiling sky high, now whether he fully peaks is another debate. 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

He ran for 1,000 yards and is struggling to complete 60% of his passes. He is, right now, a one-look and dash QB. He's super young and his roster was terrible, from the targets to the protection, and they were scared of letting him throw for a while, so I'll cut him a lot of slack. But I think he's going to end up serviceable with a prolonged career based on pure athleticism, but bouncing around several teams.

I'm sure that trade scores out beautifully, but my point is if that 2024 pick becomes 18th overall and Fields has a bad year, it's not going to seem all that great if they're on year 40 of the QB search in 2025. I'm glad they seem convinced he's the guy, cus I don't think he is.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

On 3/11/2023 at 1:33 PM, nate82 said:

There isn't a QB in this draft that is going to give the Panthers a +2 win differential.  They are probably a top 10 pick team again in '24 so the Bears will get another top 10 pick and I wouldn't be surprised if the Panthers are a 1-5 pick next year.  The way that team is currently constructed they look to be a 1-3 type pick in '24. 

C'mon. That's a huge assumption. It's the NFL. They could make the playoffs this year for all we know. 

[madbad2000]

1 hour ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

He ran for 1,000 yards and is struggling to complete 60% of his passes. He is, right now, a one-look and dash QB. He's super young and his roster was terrible, from the targets to the protection, and they were scared of letting him throw for a while, so I'll cut him a lot of slack. But I think he's going to end up serviceable with a prolonged career based on pure athleticism, but bouncing around several teams.

I'm sure that trade scores out beautifully, but my point is if that 2024 pick becomes 18th overall and Fields has a bad year, it's not going to seem all that great if they're on year 40 of the QB search in 2025. I'm glad they seem convinced he's the guy, cus I don't think he is.

In college he completed 69.2, 67.2 and 70.2% while his highest rushing total was 484 yards in 2019.  Hard to complete passes when you don't have time or reliable targets.  I suspect he probably falls closer to 700 yards rushing and passing closer to 65% with a lot of deep shots.  It's not like we are talking about Anthony Richardson where he has zero track record of passing accuracy in college.  I like Fields a lot, but acknowledge that this is the critical year for him to show out.  The biggest impact of that trade is DJ Moore.  Eliminates a lot of excuses, pushes the current receivers down to more favorable pairings and should have better protection.  

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yeah I'm sorry, but, his accuracy in college holds almost no weight anymore. This isn't college football. It's a completely different speed. I'll readily concede that it's fair to say he could be really good and that he might be an accurate passer at some point - hell, there are even some advanced metrics that are favorable with his accuracy, but today, right now, he is not a pass-first NFL QB.

It's completely fair to say the crap he's been surrounded with isn't a fair shake, though.

[Fear The Chorizo]

33 minutes ago, madbad2000 said:

In college he completed 69.2, 67.2 and 70.2% while his highest rushing total was 484 yards in 2019.  Hard to complete passes when you don't have time or reliable targets.  I suspect he probably falls closer to 700 yards rushing and passing closer to 65% with a lot of deep shots.  It's not like we are talking about Anthony Richardson where he has zero track record of passing accuracy in college.  I like Fields a lot, but acknowledge that this is the critical year for him to show out.  The biggest impact of that trade is DJ Moore.  Eliminates a lot of excuses, pushes the current receivers down to more favorable pairings and should have better protection.  

He ran a spread offense in college that was a 1 read system and OSU routinely had mismatches all over the field due to talent superiority - it's easy to have a 70% completion percentage when you're throwing to largely uncovered receivers or against defenses that have to sell out to stop a running game.  I think those concerns should also be looked at long and hard with evaluating whether Stroud or for that matter Young are going to become stars at the NFL level in this year's draft.

Fields is not an accurate passer at the NFL level and routinely throws into schemed coverages, and nothing about his 1st two seasons in the NFL indicates he's about to develop into a competent passer.  His propensity to run alot sets him up for injuries.  It would be the most Bears thing to do to sign Fields to a longterm extension and waste their current rebuild plan with an average and inconsistent NFL quarterback.  I think they would've been better off trying to trade Fields and then picking "their guy" at the top of this year's draft.

[madbad2000]

16 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Yeah I'm sorry, but, his accuracy in college holds almost no weight anymore. This isn't college football. It's a completely different speed. I'll readily concede that it's fair to say he could be really good and that he might be an accurate passer at some point - hell, there are even some advanced metrics that are favorable with his accuracy, but today, right now, he is not a pass-first NFL QB.

It's completely fair to say the crap he's been surrounded with isn't a fair shake, though.

His accuracy in college absolutely holds weight even if it doesn't help some arguments.  He has had success in the past as a pass first QB.  It's obvious to anyone including Fields himself that his goal is to get back to being a pass first QB who has the ability to run.  It could probably be argued that his first two years don't really hold weight based on where he was, how he was used and the lack of any support.  I love his ceiling and hope this offseason continues building to give him a fair chance at showing what he can do.  You're spot on though, he has not had a fair shake and that's rough because you're two years into your 5 year rookie window.

[jerichoholicninja]

MLB Free Agency:
Star players stay on the market for months, even past the start of spring training.

NFL Free Agency:
Every player is signed before they are even legally allowed to.

[nate82]

The Bears were working on a trade with Houston that would have sent them the #2 pick plus a 1st in '24 and then that pick would have been traded to the Panthers for what they got for the #1 pick.  That would have been interesting.  The Bears backed out of the talks with Houston as the Texans were not all that committed to trading up to the #1 pick. 

That would have been a crazy haul for the #1 pick for the Bears if that would have gone down. 

[nate82]

BetMGM's odds to win the NFC North:

Lions +135

Vikings +300

Bears +300

Packers +450

[areacodes]

On 3/14/2023 at 9:55 AM, madbad2000 said:

His accuracy in college absolutely holds weight even if it doesn't help some arguments.  He has had success in the past as a pass first QB.  It's obvious to anyone including Fields himself that his goal is to get back to being a pass first QB who has the ability to run.  It could probably be argued that his first two years don't really hold weight based on where he was, how he was used and the lack of any support.  I love his ceiling and hope this offseason continues building to give him a fair chance at showing what he can do.  You're spot on though, he has not had a fair shake and that's rough because you're two years into your 5 year rookie window.

I know this is a few days old, but I just had surgery so I’m just sitting around and this caught my eye.

How do you justify considering his college completion percentage to hold more weight than his pro completion percentage outside of being a homer or wishful thinking?  Even with the Bears being able to add more talent with their draft capital and thru free agency with their massive cap space, they still won’t hold the massive talent gap between teams as Fields had playing at OSU.  He also likely had a significant gap between coaching, scheme and resources compared to many of the teams played in college that he won’t in the NFL.

Fields wasn’t more of a pass first QB while at OSU (didn’t run as much at Georgia but hard to put much stock into about 80 combined attempts as a backup across 12 games) compared to what he’s done with the Bears.  In fact, he has less rushes per game (and essentially the same amount of throws per rush) in the NFL than college - he’s just been more productive when running in the NFL.

Rush/Game:

OSU - 9.91

Bears - 8.59

Pass Attempt/Rush:

OSU - 2.66

Bears - 2.53

I’m a Packers fan (and most definitely biased in the other direction), so I’m obviously hoping he’s terrible in the long run and the Bears waste these draft picks trying to building around Fields.  Heck, I’d love for him to show some unsustainable progress this year that leads the Bears to sign him to a massive, long term contract that blows up in their face.

[homer]

Rumor floating around that the Vikings are interested in Lamar Jackson. 

[jerichoholicninja]

16 hours ago, homer said:

Rumor floating around that the Vikings are interested in Lamar Jackson. 

Seems like everyone except the Ravens are interested in Jackson this offseason.

[bjkrautk]

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/04/21/nfl-suspends-jameson-williams-and-others-for-violating-gambling-policy/

4 Lions players suspended for gambling, including former Badger WR Quintez Cephus.  Cephus, and CJ Moore were released after being suspended for at least 1 season.

[jerichoholicninja]

No details given but the fact that were suspensions of 6 games and 1 year, both for gambling, is just another example of the NFL's total inconsistency when it comes to suspensions.

[HarryDoyle]

2 hours ago, jerichoholicninja said:

No details given but the fact that were suspensions of 6 games and 1 year, both for gambling, is just another example of the NFL's total inconsistency when it comes to suspensions.

The difference is Cephus and Moore bet on NFL games, and Williams and Berryhill did not.

[brewcrewdue80]

10 hours ago, HarryDoyle said:

The difference is Cephus and Moore bet on NFL games, and Williams and Berryhill did not.

After the details were given so atm jNinja had a point. Just poor decision makings all around. 

Heard the 6 game suspension was due to betting on team grounds a different sport than NFL. If they had been away from the area it would not of earned a suspension.

The 1year minimums were strictly betting on NFL games. I wonder if there will be more caught besides just the Lions players.

[JosephC]

And yet, billionaire owners can partner up with gambling organizations and make a few more million on top of their billions.

Please enlighten me as to what the penalty would be for an owner if he was caught filling out a NCAA bracket on the team's property?

[areacodes]

6 hours ago, JosephC said:

And yet, billionaire owners can partner up with gambling organizations and make a few more million on top of their billions.

Please enlighten me as to what the penalty would be for an owner if he was caught filling out a NCAA bracket on the team's property?

Because that is totally an apples to apples comparison.

Also, if the players don’t like it - negotiate it out of the CBA.

Sucks for Cepheus and the other players, but if I was set to make $1m, pretty sure I could also avoid betting on NFL games or making bets in team facilities. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

But sure, that wishlist thing was completely made up by the media.

[PeaveyFury]

BUT DON'T CALL IT A WISH LIST!

 

[homer]

Honestly, I think McAfee is a good guy but the amount of butt kissing he does to Rodgers is astounding. Can't offend the golden ratings goose I guess.

[SeaBass]

2 hours ago, homer said:

Honestly, I think McAfee is a good guy but the amount of butt kissing he does to Rodgers is astounding. Can't offend the golden ratings goose I guess.

I've soured on McAfee. I don't begrudge him his show or how he chooses to go about his business or anything, he clearly has won a large audience. It just got to the point where I couldn't stand the extreme bias. I get it, some bias is fine, even expected, but man it just got to be too much for me. I don't need his voice in my head anymore.

[MrTPlush]

On 5/3/2023 at 9:31 AM, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

But sure, that wishlist thing was completely made up by the media.

It made sense for the Jets to go after Packers WRs regardless of whether Rodgers kindly requested them or not. If you are hedging your bets on an old QB for 2 years, having him get comfortable and learn to play with an entire roster of new guys is a lot of wasted time that could be costly. Especially early on next year. 

Unfortunately for the Jets, Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb were the two WRs available to nab and not someone like Davante Adams. Knowing how Rodgers runs an offense and how guys have struggled with him at first in the past, it will probably end up beneficial. The quality of those guys isn't that great though, so I don't really expect this experiment to work that well for the Jets. We shall see though.