2023 NFL Discussion Thread

[CheezWizHed]

11 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Yeah, winning SBs makes you a HOF caliber QB and Brady has also won 7 of them(and he wasn't HOF caliber the first several few when he needed Bledsoe to come into the AFCCG or was holding the Rams to 17 points, beating the Raiders with the Tuck rule). 

Brock Purdy would be my response to this general line of thinking. Or Jalen Hurts, but he's probably on his way to becoming a HOF-caliber caliber QB.

The point is, a HOF QBs, they end up in the HOF as often because of the time because of team success. You're including 3 Manning runs in there, 2 by Eli who isn't a HOF caliber QB if not for two great defensive lines by his teams and Peyton when he didn't even start most of the year he won his last SB. 

 

But yeah, I said if Williams, you draft the QB. I've said as much about Williams since before Love took over. And everyone else knows who and what Caleb Williams is, so it seems unlikely that, A-we're going to pass up the Bears and Panthers in the "race" for Williams(I'd also include the Cards and a couple other teams in that group). And if it comes to trading up, you're most likely trading away massive draft capital, even if you're sitting at #5. The group of QBs that make you a SB caliber team just by virtue of their presence on a team is exceedingly small and we just had one for 15 years, but lost to inferior QBs regularly because...we didn't have that complimentary FB. We didn't have the defense or running games when Rodgers was losing to Wilson's who had a top defense 4 out of 5 years(#2 the other year) or Kaepernick/Jimmy G who had dominant defenses. 

As for College stats, I couldn't be less interested in what a QB did in College statistically. Josh Allen and Joe Burrow had a combined 1 year meeting your threshold as starting QBs and they're both QBs pretty obviously on their way to HOF careers.

How they play, sure, but their stats? Case Keenum would be the greatest QB of all time if College States told you anything and June Jones would be the NFL version of Mike D'Antoni. If Jordan Love had gone to OSU, he probably have completed 70% of his passes and that wouldn't mean anything to me either.

 

I included Love's college stats as a comment because it was a weakness identified as he was drafted.... not just a recent issue.  Josh Allen is a pretty decent example of what Love has to overcome.  Of course, there are many other QBs with the same issue that never overcome it.   I wouldn't call him a lock for the HOF though.  Same for Hurts too.  They are headed that way, but still a bit early to call them locks.

Yes, winning a SB often makes a QB... but that is normally because he is the centerpiece of the team that wins it all.  Most often because of him. 

And I hate to break it to you... Eli will most likely be in the HOF.  Maybe not the first year, but he is going to get in.  I'm not happy about it either...

Point is... the easiest way to win the SB is have a top tier QB. You obviously need more (Dan Marino says "hi"), but it is much more likely when you have one than not (Trent Dilfer...). 

SB	Winning QB	Rookie Deal	HOF	Losing QB	Rookie Deal	HOF
LVII (57)	Maholms	NO	YES	Jalen Hurts	YES	NO
LVI (56)	Stafford	NO	NO	Burrows	YES	YES
LV (55)	Maholms	NO	YES	Brady	NO	YES
LIV (54)	Maholms	YES	YES	Garoppolo	NO	NO
LIII (53)	Brady	NO	YES	Goff	YES	NO
LII (52)	Foles	NO	NO	Brady	NO	YES
LI (51)	Brady	NO	YES	Ryan	NO	NO
50	P Manning	NO	YES	Newton	NO	NO
XLIX (49)	Brady	NO	YES	Wilson	YES	YES
XLVIII (48)	Wilson	YES	YES	P Manning	NO	YES
XLVII (47)	Flacco	YES	NO	Kapernick	YES	NO
XLVI (46)	Eli Manning	NO	YES	Brady	NO	YES
XLV (45)	Rodgers	NO	YES	Roethlisberger	NO	YES
XLIV (44)	Brees	NO	YES	P Manning	NO	YES
XLIII (43)	Warner	NO	YES	Roethlisberger	NO	YES
XLII (42)	E Manning	YES	YES	Brady	NO	YES
XLI (41)	P Manning	NO	YES	Grossman	YES	NO
XL (40)	Roethlisberger	YES	YES	Hasselbeck	NO	NO
XXXIX (39)	Brady	NO	YES	McNabb	NO	NO
XXXVIII (38)	Brady	YES	YES	Delhomme	NO	NO
XXXVII (37)	Gannon	NO	NO	Brad Johnson	NO	NO
XXXVI (36)	Brady	YES	YES	Warner	NO	YES
XXXV (35)	Dilfer	NO	NO	Kerry Collins	NO	NO
XXXIV (34)	Warner	NO	YES	McNair	YES	NO
		29.2%	79.2%		29.2%	45.8%
		7	19		7	11

[BrewerFan]

5 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I included Love's college stats as a comment because it was a weakness identified as he was drafted.... not just a recent issue.  Josh Allen is a pretty decent example of what Love has to overcome.  Of course, there are many other QBs with the same issue that never overcome it.   I wouldn't call him a lock for the HOF though. 

Yes, winning a SB often makes a QB... but that is normally because he is the centerpiece of the team that wins it all.  Most often because of him. 

And I hate to break it to you... Eli will most likely be in the HOF.  Maybe not the first year, but he is going to get in.  I'm not happy about it either...

Point is... the easiest way to win the SB is have a top tier QB. You obviously need more (Dan Marino says "hi"), but it is much more likely when you have one than not (Trent Dilfer...). 

Well...you're not breaking it to me, I'm saying Eli was NOT a HOF caliber QB, he'll get in because he won 2 SBs...but they didn't win 2 SBs because he was a great QB.

Big Ben...perhaps, but it still took elite complimentary FB to get him to the SB and give them a chance and then they just kinda limped along the rest of his career. Matt Ryan's career will likely not be a HOF career due to a 28-3 lead lost.

Brady for the last 4 SB wins and second half of his career, sure. 

Hurts I don't think is a HOF caliber QB. 

As for his College States, he started as a True Freshman, had an ELITE year as a Soph and then it's well documented what happened his 3rd year.

Again, Joe Burrow failed in College save for one year. If Love's Soph year would have been his Jr, there wouldn't have been those "questions."

Who is the ONE QB that to a fan, GM, coach...WR-Virtually EVERYONE in the NFL would take? Mahomes.

Remember how bad the Buccs made Mahomes look in the Super Bowl?

So I guess I'll just say I don't know how to quantify HOF caliber QB at this point in a career SAVE for the uber-rare Mahomes-type talents. Look at Jalen Hurts first 7 stats. They were every bit as bad as Love's and he had significantly bigger questions about his passing ability. 

I'm more concerned with if you can win a SB with this guy. And I've seen enough good things that I think you can-IF you've got the foundation in place. I'm not completely sold in that position, I still need to see more growth, but he also needs more help. That 40-yard backshoulder he threw to Doubs to start the 2nd half vs Denver was as good as ALMOST any throw Aaron Rodgers made. He beat Cover2 by not putting much under it and couldn't have walked it there better and it hit both hands and we couldn't come up with it.

So what would Aaron Rodgers and the 6-10 Packers have been HIS first year without a good OL and then Jennings, Driver, established veteran recievers and instead a terrible OL and say Davante in year2, Nelson in yr 2, Driver in yr 2, pretty much every WRer we've had has taken a couple years to develop.

And then referencing the Mahomes 31-9 loss in the Super Bowl, how can you reasonably expect Love to have success when you've got an awful OL...and I've been pounding this drum since Rodgers and Billy Turner's PFF grades, but he made them "grade higher," because they had much lower pass rush win/loss rates because he got the ball out so damn fast. Now we're throwing the ball downfield more than anyone with a weak OL. I did think this OL would be much better because we'd have our pass-blocking AP LT back, but we didn't.

I just don't know if it's possible to determine if Love is that guy in a season where you've got poor OL play, can't run the ball(this entire offense is predicated off getting big plays off play action and nobody cares about PA when you can't run) and your #1 WRer is in and out of the lineup. Your PB RB is in and out, your TE, that shiny new weapon, he's been in and out.

 

I agreed with moving off Rodgers, it was time, but I remember saying...Love's best years will probably look closer to Rodgers worst. I think it's possible we have unrealistic expectations and it'd be wise to let this play out through next year and try to develop this offense with-the-caveat that Williams is the guy you take irrespective of how you look the rest of the year and Maye is worth considering, but you only take those guys if they come to you, but this strategy of "If they're not HOF caliber, you move on," you end up being the Bears/.Browns.

 

Really good QB play can win your SB and then those QBs become HOF caliber long after people dismissed them. Brees, Warner, Young, there's a lot that comes to mind. 

 

Now, I'm just never going to be compelled by the College Stats. It's a totally different game. 

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/love-led-nation-in-ints-heres-why-to-not-worry

[CheezWizHed]

Well...you're not breaking it to me, I'm saying Eli was NOT a HOF caliber QB, he'll get in because he won 2 SBs...but they didn't win 2 SBs because he was a great QB.

Big Ben...perhaps, but it still took elite complimentary FB to get him to the SB and give them a chance and then they just kinda limped along the rest of his career. Matt Ryan's career will likely not be a HOF career due to a 28-3 lead lost.

Clearly there are ranges of HOF QBs.  Often winning a SB or two pushes the difference.  I think Kirk Cousins is a better QB than Eli Manning, but Eli will make it (2 SBs, 2 SB MVPs) while Kirk probably won't.   That isn't the point. 

 

Brady for the last 4 SB wins and second half of his career, sure. 

But everyone says a QB on a rookie deal is the best way to win a SB!! Took the best QB ever to be the only one in the last 23 years (I didn't look before that) to accomplish it twice.  He was a better QB as he ages (which is why I say QBs on rookie deals aren't as successful) but you can't discount his play in his first 2 wins either...

Hurts I don't think is a HOF caliber QB. 

Agreed.  He hasn't won a SB either, so that doesn't impact my argument

Again, Joe Burrow failed in College save for one year. If Love's Soph year would have been his Jr, there wouldn't have been those "questions."

Joe didn't even start until he transferred.  Then he had one HUGE breakout year.  He is early in his career, but eyeball test kind of looks like he is probably going to be HOF material. 

I do love how people continue to discount my argument for the importance of a high performing (i.e. HOF level) QB as the biggest key to winning a SB.  Of course, they need a strong supporting cast, but that continues to be the key point. 

Thus, I don't think "Can we win a SB with this guy?" Is the right question... You can win a SB with just about anyone at QB (Dilfer, McMahon), but that window is REALLY small.  A better Q would be, "Can he lead (or carry) us to the SB?".  If not, I prefer to move on until we can find one that fits that bill. 

[BrewerFan]

4 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Agreed.  He hasn't won a SB either, so that doesn't impact my argument

And yet he's making 51M a year, was the highest paid QB ever when he signed his 250M+ deal.

So...if he wins that SB, then he's a likely HOF QB?

Is Russell Wilson? Because he was carried to the SB by his defenses. 

4 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

But everyone says a QB on a rookie deal is the best way to win a SB!! Took the best QB ever

Well, I said nothing about being on a rookie deal and I don't think he's the best QB ever. That makes this nebulous "If he a HOF QB," a year into starting that much more of a moving target. Brady, also carried by his defense in his first couple SBs and they were paying Drew Bledsoe(I think he was the 2nd 100M dollar player in the NFL). So that kinda shoots down two points.

 

4 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Joe didn't even start until he transferred.  Then he had one HUGE breakout year.  He is early in his career, but eyeball test kind of looks like he is probably going to be HOF material. 

I don't think this helps the "College stats" argument.

He couldn't start over a string of non-NFL QBs like Cardale Jones, JT Barrett...then after 3 years(which was Love's entire career) he transferred to LSU has Chase, and Jefferson(arguably the top 2 WRers in the NFL right now) as well as Fournette...and he had one year in which he cracks your threshold.

If that doesn't prove College States are totally useless in this context, I don't know what would. 

[BrewerFan]

4 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

I do love how people continue to discount my argument for the importance of a high performing (i.e. HOF level) QB as the biggest key to winning a SB.  Of course, they need a strong supporting cast, but that continues to be the key point. 

Who are the "people" that "continue to discount YOUR argument for the importance of a "high-performing,"(not the same as figuring out if a QB is a HOF caliber QB his first year as a starter). 

4 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Thus, I don't think "Can we win a SB with this guy?" Is the right question... You can win a SB with just about anyone at QB (Dilfer, McMahon), but that window is REALLY small.  A better Q would be, "Can he lead (or carry) us to the SB?".  If not, I prefer to move on until we can find one that fits that bill. 

Ok...if that's your question, I'd say it's a much better one than "is he a HOF caliber QB."

Jalen Hurts just got them to a SB and was play away from winning one(he's not a HOF caliber QB in your mind). 

Brock Purdy is the QB of arguably the best team in the NFL right now.

Jimmy G has been to multiple SBs. 

You're looking for an answer to a question...which has changed now, that's virtually impossible to answer at this point in a players career.

Was Aaron Rodgers a "HOF caliber QB," after his 6-10 season?

Finally...as I get ready to leave for the weekend, I'd recommend you read this entire thread and look at All22 if you're going to come to this conclusion one way or another based on the information we have at hand;

 

It's far more than the one picture.

Be back on Sunday/Monday.

[nate82]

Chase Young to Da Bears?

https://sports.yahoo.com/rumor-chase-young-linked-bears-014530382.html

I wouldn't give up more than a couple of 2nd round picks but knowing the Bears it will be one of their 1st round picks if not both. 

[HarryDoyle]

3 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Chase Young to Da Bears?

https://sports.yahoo.com/rumor-chase-young-linked-bears-014530382.html

I wouldn't give up more than a couple of 2nd round picks but knowing the Bears it will be one of their 1st round picks if not both. 

What a stupid trade this would be for the Bears. Do they think they're playoff contenders?

[nate82]

Just now, HarryDoyle said:

What a stupid trade this would be for the Bears. Do they think they're playoff contenders?

I think it is more that they need a pass rusher and currently have zero on their team.  Young would make them better on the defensive side of things.  But if they could get Young for a couple of 2nd or 3rd round picks it wouldn't be a bad idea to do it.  If they have to give up any of their first round picks then yeah it is a stupid idea. 

[homer]

dang

 

 

[homer]

The Bears are weird.

[nate82]

49 minutes ago, homer said:

The Bears are weird.

They needed a pass rusher but probably should have waited until FA.  

[OldHeidelberg]

47 minutes ago, homer said:

The Bears are weird.

Yeah, they can't get a deal done with Jaylen Johnson so look to trade him and then trade a high pick to another guy they are going to have to pay? I just read they are going to have a ton of cap space but they sure don't value their draft picks much. It doesn't sound like Raiders will trade Davante which seem pretty weird too but maybe there are cap issues with doing that. 

[patrickgpe]

1 hour ago, homer said:

The Bears are weird.

I don't get it. Even if you justified it by saying you plan on signing him to an extension, that still doesn't account that you gave up a 2nd to get a little better and maybe pick a little higher in the draft. 

[nate82]

LOL Vikings. 

 

[homer]

 

 

[nate82]

11 minutes ago, homer said:

 

 

[CheezWizHed]

7 hours ago, nate82 said:

LOL Vikings. 

 

A chance at what?  Battling the Bears for .500?

[young guns]

Just checking, but isn't this the same Dobbs that was widely touted as earning the starting job because he would help Arizona tank for the top pick?

[HarryDoyle]

Raiders fire Josh McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler.

Raiders fire coach Josh McDaniels, GM Dave Ziegler - ESPN

Gee, if even Mark Davis can figure it out, surely Mark Murphy can, right? Right?

[adambr2]

10 hours ago, young guns said:

Just checking, but isn't this the same Dobbs that was widely touted as earning the starting job because he would help Arizona tank for the top pick?

Yeah, I have no idea what the Vikings are doing. No one in this division outside of the Lions should feel like they have a realistic chance to do anything this year. 

I would guess they gave up next to nothing for him and that's probably why. But they may as well have just waited to see what Hall can do. 

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

Yeah, I have no idea what the Vikings are doing. No one in this division outside of the Lions should feel like they have a realistic chance to do anything this year. 

I would guess they gave up next to nothing for him and that's probably why. But they may as well have just waited to see what Hall can do. 

They swapped a 6th for a 7th round pick, so they give up next to nothing to get Dobbs.  Behind Hall they had a QB on the practice squad and another QB on IR.  I'm guessing they felt they needed some depth. 

[nate82]

3 hours ago, HarryDoyle said:

Gee, if even Mark Davis can figure it out, surely Mark Murphy can, right? Right?

McDaniels the next Packers HC!

[CheezWizHed]

Just now, nate82 said:

McDaniels the next Packers HC!

Then he might as well keep Joe Barry as DC!

[nate82]

Just now, CheezWizHed said:

Then he might as well keep Joe Barry as DC!

No McDaniels would also be the DC.  Who else could you get to orchestrate a defense than the brilliant offensive mind of McDaniels! You just can’t beat it!

[endaround]

How can the Bears not clean house?  Not one but two coaches fired for behavioral reasons? How can you have any trust in coaching staff?