Report: D-Backs sign Corbin Carroll to 8 year $111 million extension

[homer]

 

[Brewcrew82]

There's what you're looking at for Jackson Chourio next spring...

[Brock Beauchamp]

18 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

There's what you're looking at for Jackson Chourio next spring...

Maybe...? The money might be right but Carroll had just over 100 PAs in 2022 and I'm skeptical Chourio will receive that kind of playing time in 2023. I'd say it's unlikely we see Chourio in 2023 at all, if I had to put odds on it.

By the way, it's Jackson's birthday today!

[Brewcrew82]

17 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Maybe...? The money might be right but Carroll had just over 100 PAs in 2022 and I'm skeptical Chourio will receive that kind of playing time in 2023. I'd say it's unlikely we see Chourio in 2023 at all, if I had to put odds on it.

By the way, it's Jackson's birthday today!

Fair. I also don't expect to see Chourio in 2023, though I do think there's a decent chance he forces the issue with his play. 

It does show the sooner the better in extending him, though. You wait too long and you end up having a Julio Rodriguez situation (14 yrs, $400 million), at which point it's over for the Brewers. If he continues to mash in A+/AA to start the season, I would probably commence negotiations.

[sveumrules]

Dude is clearly really good at baseball, but I wouldn’t want my team guaranteeing a hundred million dollars to someone with his injury history.

[MVP2110]

If Chourio dominates this year and reaches the Majors at the end of August then maybe it's realistic to discuss a deal with him next offseason. But it's more likely he's 2 years away from a possible extension and next year we focus on whoever of Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, or Wiemer has a good year in the bigs 

[Brewcrew82]

22 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

If Chourio dominates this year and reaches the Majors at the end of August then maybe it's realistic to discuss a deal with him next offseason. But it's more likely he's 2 years away from a possible extension and next year we focus on whoever of Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, or Wiemer has a good year in the bigs 

That could be too late, though. Say he reaches the majors on OD next year like his comparables, Rodriguez and Walker (likely)....You're looking at a whole season or so of MLB production where he can increase his value significantly. So, instead of a deal like Corbin Carroll's, a deal in the offseason of 2024-2025 could be more like the 14 years $400 million that Julio Rodriguez got last August. Suffice to say, the Brewers won't ever be paying that kind of money...

This is a case where, if he keeps progressing on his current trajectory, you lock him up sooner than later. It seems risky, but that's the type of risk a small-market club like the Brewers needs to take to keep this kind of talent. 

[MVP2110]

6 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

That could be too late, though. Say he reaches the majors on OD next year like his comparables, Rodriguez and Walker (likely)....You're looking at a whole season or so of MLB production where he can increase his value significantly. So, instead of a deal like Corbin Carroll's, a deal in the offseason of 2024-2025 could be more like the 14 years $400 million that Julio Rodriguez got last August. Suffice to say, the Brewers won't ever be paying that kind of money...

This is a case where, if he keeps progressing on his current trajectory, you lock him up sooner than later. It seems risky, but that's the type of risk a small-market club like the Brewers needs to take to keep this kind of talent. 

If he tears up AA & AAA this year then I agree with you and think it would be smart to lock him up next offseason. But I also think it's likely if he tears up AA & AAA this year we likely see him in September like we did with Mitchell this past year

[MrTPlush]

D Backs wanted to make this dude their franchise so bad they gave him this solidly stupid contract and buy out a measly three years of FA for their time…?

I guess this is the cost to lock up a player instantly when they have absolutely zero interest getting locked up early. You have to offer them something just plain ridiculous it is impossible to even turn down.

If I am offering Chourio $100mil+, the contract is 20 years long and he is a career Brewer.

[MadThinker88]

45 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

D Backs wanted to make this dude their franchise so bad they gave him this solidly stupid contract and buy out a measly three years of FA for their time…?

I guess this is the cost to lock up a player instantly when they have absolutely zero interest getting locked up early. You have to offer them something just plain ridiculous it is impossible to even turn down.

If I am offering Chourio $100mil+, the contract is 20 years long and he is a career Brewer.

Your offer would be DOA in the process as no player is signing for that long for so little.

The goal of a contract like this is to buy out some of the FA years AND buy out all the arbitration years.  In the Arizona case they got at least 6 of those years.

Considering the bad taste left with Burnes following his arbitration hearing, there is good reason to avoid arbit hearings with others in the future.

[MrTPlush]

21 minutes ago, MadThinker88 said:

Your offer would be DOA in the process as no player is signing for that long for so little.

The goal of a contract like this is to buy out some of the FA years AND buy out all the arbitration years.  In the Arizona case they got at least 6 of those years.

Considering the bad taste left with Burnes following his arbitration hearing, there is good reason to avoid arbit hearings with others in the future.

Right, it isn’t realistic. It wouldn’t actually happen.

The Brewers already do a good job avoiding arby hearings. One single guy had to go to one and we had a boatload of them eligible this year. Other high profile players included. The reason we ended up in a hearing with Burnes is because of Burnes.

[SF70]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

D Backs wanted to make this dude their franchise so bad they gave him this solidly stupid contract and buy out a measly three years of FA for their time…?

I guess this is the cost to lock up a player instantly when they have absolutely zero interest getting locked up early. You have to offer them something just plain ridiculous it is impossible to even turn down.

If I am offering Chourio $100mil+, the contract is 20 years long and he is a career Brewer.

Fastest player in baseball. Elite BTB. Above average power. Plays a premium position. Current #1/#2 prospect in baseball. 8-9 years of Carroll, even if it takes him 1-2 years to establish, that’s 7-8 years of PRIME-AGED performance seasons. 

The DBacks know what they have in Carroll. They know his injury history first-hand. A $23M+ Carroll still in his prime in 2031 will be a massive bargain contract.

[homer]

I've seen a few pundits say they think Carroll will regret signing this deal. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 hours ago, MadThinker88 said:

Your offer would be DOA in the process as no player is signing for that long for so little.

The goal of a contract like this is to buy out some of the FA years AND buy out all the arbitration years.  In the Arizona case they got at least 6 of those years.

Considering the bad taste left with Burnes following his arbitration hearing, there is good reason to avoid arbit hearings with others in the future.

While it's nice from a fan perspective to lock up a player for 15 years, there are many reasons why teams are hesitant to do so and would prefer to lock up a young player through age 30-ish, which is what the Diamondbacks did here.

[MVP2110]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

While it's nice from a fan perspective to lock up a player for 15 years, there are many reasons why teams are hesitant to do so and would prefer to lock up a young player through age 30-ish, which is what the Diamondbacks did here.

I think in most cases for small markets having players locked up into their early 30s and then trading him with a year or two before FA is the best way to sustain competitiveness 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, MVP2110 said:

I think in most cases for small markets having players locked up into their early 30s and then trading him with a year or two before FA is the best way to sustain competitiveness 

Oh yeah, getting to or a little past 30 is fine, I'm just not shocked the Diamondbacks didn't do that, nor do I really think it's a mistake. I could make an argument in either direction but would have a hard time defending signing a guy past age 32 or so.

[wiguy94]

33 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I could make an argument in either direction but would have a hard time defending signing a guy past age 32 or so.

Haven't you been pretty vocal on how disapointing it is that the Brewers haven't yet extended at least one of Adames, Burnes, Woodruff? All 3 of those potential extensions would take them past the age of 32. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Haven't you been pretty vocal on how disapointing it is that the Brewers haven't yet extended at least one of Adames, Burnes, Woodruff? All 3 of those potential extensions would take them past the age of 32. 

There's a difference between projecting a 21 year old through age 34 and projecting a 28 year old through age 34, which is the difference. Burnes, Adames, and Woodruff have extended track records that increase their likelihood of being a competent MLB player at age 33. The same cannot be said for Jackson Chourio.

[jerichoholicninja]

4 hours ago, homer said:

I've seen a few pundits say they think Carroll will regret signing this deal. 

Barring something crazy his children and grandchildren will never have to worry about money in their lives. I get that it's certainly possible this guy could sign like a $600M contract at some point but I feel zero sorries for him if he ever "regrets" signing this contract.

[homer]

6 minutes ago, jerichoholicninja said:

Barring something crazy his children and grandchildren will never have to worry about money in their lives. I get that it's certainly possible this guy could sign like a $600M contract at some point but I feel zero sorries for him if he ever "regrets" signing this contract.

well yeah I don't think anyone is asking to feel sorry for him. Point being he may be missing out on a lot of money. And his kids and grand kids would be set if he signed for $15 million. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

6 minutes ago, homer said:

well yeah I don't think anyone is asking to feel sorry for him. Point being he may be missing out on a lot of money. And his kids and grand kids would be set if he signed for $15 million. 

Isn’t he still hitting FA around age 29? If he’s good, he’ll still be in for a massive payday. 

[homer]

40 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Isn’t he still hitting FA around age 29? If he’s good, he’ll still be in for a massive payday. 

I think 30 but yes potentially. I'm just passing along the info. It will be interesting to see how his career progresses. 

[sveumrules]

Carroll got $50M for his pre-FA seasons. 

Trea Turner, who pretty much maximized a similar skill set, just made something like $47M going year to year as a Super Two.

Seems pretty fair to CC.

If the DBacks pick up their option, Corbin sold his first three FA seasons for 3/84.

I’m sure contracts will be nuts seven years out, but unless Carroll goes absolutely bonkers twixt now & then I have a hard time seeing him hit $40M annually in FA, but let’s say he could.

That would mean he left $36M on the table for those first three FA seasons. Seems like a pretty fair trade off for $111M guaranteed.

[Jake McKibbin]

I think the thing with these contracts is there needs to be some uncertainty regarding the players outcome of performance on both sides to lock up a longer deal below market rate. If you wait a year+ and Chourio looks like Acuna, he ain't signing that deal. If you want him you need to risk that he'll not translate as easily to the majors, in the hope he does and it's shown as an above average deal

[SF70]

8 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Carroll got $50M for his pre-FA seasons. 

Trea Turner, who pretty much maximized a similar skill set, just made something like $47M going year to year as a Super Two.

Seems pretty fair to CC.

If the DBacks pick up their option, Corbin sold his first three FA seasons for 3/84.

I’m sure contracts will be nuts seven years out, but unless Carroll goes absolutely bonkers twixt now & then I have a hard time seeing him hit $40M annually in FA, but let’s say he could.

That would mean he left $36M on the table for those first three FA seasons. Seems like a pretty fair trade off for $111M guaranteed.

Arizona is trusting their medical team and scouts & evaluators in doing this deal and in doing so if they’re right just got a heck of a value..

Up to 9 years of performance paid with zero declining-performance years included.