2023 Projections Thread

[sveumrules]

Thought I’d start a thread to keep track of the various projection systems in one spot as the season goes on.

After Brewers & Cardinals losses on Opening Day it looks like…

BPro
MIL: 86 W | 52% Div | 62% PO
STL: 85 W | 39% Div | 53% PO

538
MIL: 86 W | 41% Div | 58% PO
STL: 85 W | 38% Div | 55% PO

FanGraphs
STL: 87 W | 50% Div | 66.6% PO
MIL: 85 W | 39% Div | 57% PO

Rounded off the percentages but that FG playoff percentage for the Cardinals was a little too on the nose so I left it alone.

[sveumrules]

With 10% of the season in the books, here’s how the projections have shifted…

BPro
MIL: 89 W | 67% Div | 80% PO
STL: 84 W | 26% Div | 44% PO

538
MIL: 92 W | 64% Div | 81% PO
STL: 83 W | 19% Div | 44% PO

FanGraphs
MIL: 88 W | 51% Div | 71% PO
STL: 86 W | 36% Div | 59% PO

Cubs still projected just under .500 in that 78-80 win range.

Next opponents for MIL are at SEA, vs BOS, vs DET and vs LAA.

Cardinals have vs ARI, at SEA, at SFG and at LAD coming up.

[sveumrules]

Another 10%-ish of the schedule is in the books and its been rough going here for NL Central clubs the last week or so with the Brewers just breaking a six game losing streak, the Cardinals just breaking an eight game losing streak, the Pirates in the midst of a seven game losing streak, while the Cubs had their own little 1-6 streak before the weekend and the Reds, well they played some games too.

The projections are a little slower to react to chaos than the average fan, but they are starting to see the NLC as a little more interesting race than they did before the season started or after the first 10% of games played. Current computations...

BPro
MIL: 87 W | 75% Div | 79% PO
CHI: 78 W | 9% Div | 14% PO
STL: 77 W | 9% Div | 13% PO
PIT: 76 W | 6% Div | 9% PO

538
MIL: 88 W | 61% Div | 74% PO  
CHI: 80 W | 18% Div | 33% PO
PIT: 78 W | 12% Div | 25% PO
STL: 75 W | 7% Div | 16% PO

FanGraphs
MIL: 86 W | 57% Div | 65% PO
CHI: 80 W | 17% Div | 26% PO
PIT: 79 W | 13% Div | 21% PO
STL: 79 W | 13% Div | 20% PO

I probably agree with the more evenly distributed FanGraphs spread the most at the moment, seems a little too early in the season still for the degree of confidence BPro is showing in the Brewers.

[nate82]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

I probably agree with the more evenly distributed FanGraphs spread the most at the moment, seems a little too early in the season still for the degree of confidence BPro is showing in the Brewers.

The Cardinals would have to go 68-59 to reach Fangraph's win total which is within reason.  For the Brewers to reach 86 wins that is a 67-60 record the rest of the way which is also within reason.  The Cardinals may not have a losing season but I don't see them winning more than 86 games this year.  They would need to go on an epic run in June and July to do so which means only losing about 5-games in those two months and also turn it around in May and only lose about 5 of their remaining 22 games.  The only easy games for the Cardinals left this month are the Reds(4) and Royals (2). 

The way that MLB has the schedule setup now it is not as easy as it was like last year where you could beat up on the Reds and Pirates for 6 games a month.

[sveumrules]

About a quarter of the way into the season and the projections pretty much have the NL split into four tiers.

Format is TEAM with the playoff percentages from BPro, FanGraphs and 538 in the parentheses following…

Playoff Locks
LAD (98% | 96% | 97%)
ATL (93% | 99% | 95%)

Playoffs Likely
MIL (81% | 70% | 80%)
SDP (84% | 65% | 63%)
NYM (86% | 57% | 58%)
PHI (74% | 54% | 53%)

Playoff Longshots
ARI (15% | 41% | 38%)
STL (20% | 31% | 24%)
MIA (19% | 24% | 19%)
CHI (13% | 20% | 27%) 
SFG (11% | 29% | 17%)
PIT (5% | 14% | 19%)

Playoff No Shots 
CIN (1% | 2% | 6%)
WAS (0% | 0% | 2%)
COL (0% | 0% | 2%)

[MrTPlush]

Yikes, I just looked at the WC standings. The NL has the 20-20 Phillies in one of the spots with a negative run differential. There are only 6 teams that even have a positive run differential.

On the flip side, the AL has 10 teams with a positive run differential.

[sveumrules]

Now just one game shy of being one third of the way through their schedule, the Brewers have gone a pretty underwhelming 9-10 since the May 8th check in.

Good news is that outside of STL (13-7), the other NLC teams - CIN (10-9), PIT (6-11), CHC (5-13), and NL big spenders - NYM (10-9), PHI (9-9), SDP (6-12) haven’t fared much better.

Result is current division odds of 72% vs 18% at BPro, 57% vs 23% at 538 and 49% vs 33% at FanGraphs with all three systems favoring the Brewers over the Cardinals.

Would have to say the closer percentages at FG look the most realistic to me at this point. Over double odds at 538 and 4x at BPro feel a little too aggressive with so much baseball left.

Here are how the various systems see the non-ATL/LAD contenders to this point with playoff percentages from BPro, FanGraphs and 538 in the parentheses following…

NYM (79% | 54% | 55%)
MIL (76% | 58% | 68%)
SDP (71% | 54% | 51%)
PHI (65% | 40% | 40%)
SFG (33% | 53% | 46%)
STL (26% | 42% | 36%)
ARI (26% | 51% | 44%)
MIA (21% | 31% | 29%)

[BruisedCrew]

I always wonder how well these projections factor in how existing injuries will affect future team performance, and the greater ability of some teams to make impact deadline deals. 
 

With those factors in mind I think the Brewers chances are being overstated relative to the Cardinals and, to a lesser extent, the Mets, Phillies, and Padres. 

[nate82]

53 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

With those factors in mind I think the Brewers chances are being overstated relative to the Cardinals and, to a lesser extent, the Mets, Phillies, and Padres. 

The Cardinals would have to pick up 2-3 starting pitchers that are better than what they have.  Would adding two of Lynn, Giolito or Rodriguez be enough?  Take into account the Cardinals don't get to beat up on the Pirates, Reds and Cubs all that much more.  Right now the Cardinals have a bunch of #3-5 type pitchers in their rotation and most are pitching closer to #5 pitchers.  Lynn is also not that great this year.  Right now Montgomery and Mikolas are the best pitchers on the Cardinals staff and they are looking more like #4's than top of the rotation pieces. 

The Cardinals would need to add an ace and at least one #3 type pitcher to make their rotation better.  Also take into consideration nearly all of their SP this year will be FA's next offseason.  Other than Walker who the Cardinals are not trading their next best prospect is a starting pitcher.  Actually 3 of their next 4 after Walker are pitchers.  The Cardinals are going to need all of that pitching in the coming years unless they plan on paying FA rates for a starting pitcher or they need to subtract from their MLB team to do so. 

I don't see the Cardinals making a big splash for a trade.  They will probably just add Lynn who looks to be on the decline also and somehow turn him around and have him pitch like he was a few years ago or something.  But will that be enough for the rest of their punchless starting pitchers? 

[SF70]

27 minutes ago, nate82 said:

The Cardinals would have to pick up 2-3 starting pitchers that are better than what they have.  Would adding two of Lynn, Giolito or Rodriguez be enough?  Take into account the Cardinals don't get to beat up on the Pirates, Reds and Cubs all that much more.  Right now the Cardinals have a bunch of #3-5 type pitchers in their rotation and most are pitching closer to #5 pitchers.  Lynn is also not that great this year.  Right now Montgomery and Mikolas are the best pitchers on the Cardinals staff and they are looking more like #4's than top of the rotation pieces. 

The Cardinals would need to add an ace and at least one #3 type pitcher to make their rotation better.  Also take into consideration nearly all of their SP this year will be FA's next offseason.  Other than Walker who the Cardinals are not trading their next best prospect is a starting pitcher.  Actually 3 of their next 4 after Walker are pitchers.  The Cardinals are going to need all of that pitching in the coming years unless they plan on paying FA rates for a starting pitcher or they need to subtract from their MLB team to do so. 

I don't see the Cardinals making a big splash for a trade.  They will probably just add Lynn who looks to be on the decline also and somehow turn him around and have him pitch like he was a few years ago or something.  But will that be enough for the rest of their punchless starting pitchers? 

The StL offensive advantage is huge over MKE and honestly, with MKE’s starter injuries, I think the Cardinals have the advantage there too until Woodruff is back which is looking more like late July now.

If this team can get to Woodruff’s return within a couple of games of 1st place, they probably have the advantage, provided they get healthy.

[BruisedCrew]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

The Cardinals would have to pick up 2-3 starting pitchers that are better than what they have.  Would adding two of Lynn, Giolito or Rodriguez be enough?  Take into account the Cardinals don't get to beat up on the Pirates, Reds and Cubs all that much more.  Right now the Cardinals have a bunch of #3-5 type pitchers in their rotation and most are pitching closer to #5 pitchers.  Lynn is also not that great this year.  Right now Montgomery and Mikolas are the best pitchers on the Cardinals staff and they are looking more like #4's than top of the rotation pieces. 

The Cardinals would need to add an ace and at least one #3 type pitcher to make their rotation better.  Also take into consideration nearly all of their SP this year will be FA's next offseason.  Other than Walker who the Cardinals are not trading their next best prospect is a starting pitcher.  Actually 3 of their next 4 after Walker are pitchers.  The Cardinals are going to need all of that pitching in the coming years unless they plan on paying FA rates for a starting pitcher or they need to subtract from their MLB team to do so. 

I don't see the Cardinals making a big splash for a trade.  They will probably just add Lynn who looks to be on the decline also and somehow turn him around and have him pitch like he was a few years ago or something.  But will that be enough for the rest of their punchless starting pitchers? 

The Cardinals starting pitching has undeniably been terrible, and yet as a team they are only allowing about .25 runs more than the Brewers while scoring almost a run per game more. 

Is it more likely that the Cardinals SP will improve, or that the Brewers offense, which has barely managed 3 runs per game over the last month, will suddenly start producing at something close to the league average?

Unless something changes significantly, the NL Central is going to be won by a seriously flawed team winning barely more than half their games. If I were betting, I would take the Cardinals at 3-1 over the Brewers at 1-3. 

[wiguy94]

11 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

The Cardinals starting pitching has undeniably been terrible, and yet as a team they are only allowing about .25 runs more than the Brewers while scoring almost a run per game more. 

Is it more likely that the Cardinals SP will improve, or that the Brewers offense, which has barely managed 3 runs per game over the last month, will suddenly start producing at something close to the league average?

Unless something changes significantly, the NL Central is going to be won by a seriously flawed team winning barely more than half their games. If I were betting, I would take the Cardinals at 3-1 over the Brewers at 1-3. 

Here you are arguing on behalf of the Cardinals again.

Brewers SP have a 94 ERA- compared to the Cardinals SP 117 ERA-. 

Brewers relievers are 1st in WPA and have the best SD/MD ratio in the MLB compared to Cardinals relievers being 24th in WPA and 26th in SD/MD ratio. 

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

The Cardinals starting pitching has undeniably been terrible, and yet as a team they are only allowing about .25 runs more than the Brewers while scoring almost a run per game more. 

Is it more likely that the Cardinals SP will improve, or that the Brewers offense, which has barely managed 3 runs per game over the last month, will suddenly start producing at something close to the league average?

Unless something changes significantly, the NL Central is going to be won by a seriously flawed team winning barely more than half their games. If I were betting, I would take the Cardinals at 3-1 over the Brewers at 1-3. 

How is the Cards' SP going to improve, though?? Especially when this is shaping up to be one of the weakest deadlines for starting pitching in recent memory...

Brewers are experiencing severe underperformance and injuries across their roster and yet are still clear of the Cardinals by 7 games in the loss column. 

If the Brewers can get healthy (Urias, Woodruff, Frelick, etc.) and get the positive regression they're seemingly due for (Burnes, Peralta, Adames, Taylor, etc.), I think you have to look at them as the favorites to win this weak division. 

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Here you are arguing on behalf of the Cardinals again.

They're known for that. 

[sveumrules]

13 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Unless something changes significantly, the NL Central is going to be won by a seriously flawed team winning barely more than half their games. If I were betting, I would take the Cardinals at 3-1 over the Brewers at 1-3. 

After opening at +115 STL and +145 MIL, it looks like Vegas Insider has the Brewers between -110 and -140 versus STL at +170 to +200 to win the division.

Lotsa money to be made for Cardinals believers/Brewers dis-believers.

[BruisedCrew]

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

They're known for that. 

I’d rather be known for expressing my opinions than what some others on this board are known for. 

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, sveumrules said:

After opening at +115 STL and +145 MIL, it looks like Vegas Insider has the Brewers between -110 and -140 versus STL at +170 to +200 to win the division.

Lotsa money to be made for Cardinals believers/Brewers dis-believers.

I'm a Brewers homer, obviously, but I'm not sure if I see it from them unless they pull one of those 17 game winning streaks out of their hats. Thing that's preventing them from stringing wins together, though, is that one of their SPs is having a blowup start every couple games or so. 

Not that I think the Brewers are sure bets to clear 90 wins or anything...I'm honestly just as concerned by the Cubs as I am the Cardinals at this point. 

[BruisedCrew]

12 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Here you are arguing on behalf of the Cardinals again.

Brewers SP have a 94 ERA- compared to the Cardinals SP 117 ERA-. 

Brewers relievers are 1st in WPA and have the best SD/MD ratio in the MLB compared to Cardinals relievers being 24th in WPA and 26th in SD/MD ratio. 

Then why have the Brewers gone 10-15 in May?

There is obviously a lot more to winning games than some of these advanced stats that are thrown around. There are so many of them that it can’t be hard to find some that make the case for one team over another. 
 

 

 

 

 

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, BruisedCrew said:

Then why have the Brewers gone 10-15 in May?

 

Hitting/underperformance and injuries....

Cardinals have been hitting really well and yet are still barely over .500 on the month due to their SP. 

[wiguy94]

10 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Then why have the Brewers gone 10-15 in May?

That isn't relevant to my post. My post was about you trying to pull the "Brewers only giving up 0.25 runs per game less than the Cardinals" as some attempt to lessen the gap between the 2 pitching staffs. The Cardinals pitching is healthy and still significantly worse than the Brewers pitching staff that is battered with injuries.

The Cardinals are 14-13 in April despite playing a relatively easy schedule with an opponent win% of 47.7%. Cardinals have played 9 series this month but only 4 of the 9 were against teams above .500

Brewers are obviously 10-15 this month but have played a tougher schedule with an opponent win% of 51%.  We are starting our 9th series of the month tomorrow and 6 of the 9 series were against teams above .500

 

[wiguy94]

13 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Hitting/underperformance and injuries....

Cardinals have been hitting really well and yet are still barely over .500 on the month due to their SP. 

Also Brewers have had a much tougher schedule. 6 of 9 series against teams over .500 compared to Cardinals 4 of 9 series against teams over .500

[wiguy94]

18 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Then why have the Brewers gone 10-15 in May?

There is obviously a lot more to winning games than some of these advanced stats that are thrown around. There are so many of them that it can’t be hard to find some that make the case for one team over another. 

ERA- isn't some crazy stat. It's just ERA adjusted for park factor and put on a scale where 100 is average so it is easier to compare across teams/players.

WPA, SD, MD are to take into consideration context of bullpen ERA. Cardinals have a better bullpen ERA than the Brewers by 0.50 but that's pretty irrelevant because the WPA, SD, MD better measure how the bullpen is actually doing in leverage sitautions. Brewers have excelled in leverage situations and the Cardinals have stunk it up. Their ERA is better than ours because we have had some huge run totals mounted against our bullpen in non-leverage situations which effectively make no difference in the results of the game.

[TURBO]

I'm sure the Cardinals will bring up a couple of minor league phenoms for their starting rotation, and they will perform like aces.

Based on history, and history alone, I will never count the Cardinals out, NEVER!

I hate them.

[BruisedCrew]

I’m really not buying the “much tougher schedule” argument when 2 of the Brewers series were against the Giants who are only over .500 because of winning 5 of 7 against the Brewers. The Cardinals had several difficult series in April too, including Atlanta, the Dodgers (with whom they are now finished for the year,) and Blue Jays. 
 

I also factor in that the Cardinals started May 0-5 to finish a stretch of losing something like 11 of 12 to fall to 10-24 and 10 games out of first place. Since then they have gone 14-8 and have carved that deficit to 5.5 games. 
 
If the Cardinals can pick up 3.5 games over the Brewers in about 3 weeks, I don’t think they need to win 17 in a row, or anything close to that, to make up 5.5 games over 4 months. 
 

I don’t find the injuries and underperformance argument very persuasive either. I guess I would agree that if all of the injured Brewers  return, nobody else is injured, and all of the players who have underperformed improve their performance, while none of the players who have performed well slide back, the Brewers will be the favorites to win the division. We might disagree about the likelihood of all of those things falling into place  

But, I also recognize that a lot of other teams (including the Cardinals) have had injuries and underperforming players too. 

I can see that some Brewers homers see refusing to declare the Cardinals dead means that I think that they are unbeatable, or shoo-ins to win the division, or (the most laughable) a closet Cardinal fan. I just think past experience, including the last two seasons, tells me that harping on the Cardinals flaws is like whistling past the graveyard. 
 

[wiguy94]

18 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

I’m really not buying the “much tougher schedule” argument when 2 of the Brewers series were against the Giants who are only over .500 because of winning 5 of 7 against the Brewers. The Cardinals had several difficult series in April too, including Atlanta, the Dodgers (with whom they are now finished for the year,) and Blue Jays. 
 

I also factor in that the Cardinals started May 0-5 to finish a stretch of losing something like 11 of 12 to fall to 10-24 and 10 games out of first place. Since then they have gone 14-8 and have carved that deficit to 5.5 games. 
 
If the Cardinals can pick up 3.5 games over the Brewers in about 3 weeks, I don’t think they need to win 17 in a row, or anything close to that, to make up 5.5 games over 4 months. 
 

I don’t find the injuries and underperformance argument very persuasive either. I guess I would agree that if all of the injured Brewers  return, nobody else is injured, and all of the players who have underperformed improve their performance, while none of the players who have performed well slide back, the Brewers will be the favorites to win the division. We might disagree about the likelihood of all of those things falling into place  

But, I also recognize that a lot of other teams (including the Cardinals) have had injuries and underperforming players too. 

I can see that some Brewers homers see refusing to declare the Cardinals dead means that I think that they are unbeatable, or shoo-ins to win the division, or (the most laughable) a closet Cardinal fan. I just think past experience, including the last two seasons, tells me that harping on the Cardinals flaws is like whistling past the graveyard. 
 

You're going through so many loops here trying to justify the Brewers bashing and Cardinals praise. 

IL days for Brewers - Ashby 61, Urias 59, Woodruff 49, Mitchell 41, Houser 39, Taylor 34, Miley 13, Lauer 8, Adames 3. Not even going to include Bush. That's a total of 307 IL days. 

IL days for Cardinals - Naughton 52, Wainwright 38, O'Neill 25, Woodford 25, DeJong 25, Carlson 16, Nootbaar 16. Including Woodford is generous as he absolutely sucks but even including him that is only 197 IL days over 110 fewer than us.