What's up with Burnes?

[DHonks]

In 5 starts, Burnes has had one great outing.  The rest have been mediocre to solid, but not Cy Young caliber.  I'm not sure the sites people go to for the raw data, but the quick observations are that his velocity is down (throwing 91-93 on the cutter instead of 94-97) and he his cutter isn't moving much at all.  While he has good spin rates on the other pitches, they all play off his cutter.  He's getting fewer swinging strikes than much less heralded opponents.  I'm sure there's data to back up what I'm describing, just not sure where to find cutter movement and velocity relative to last year.  

I've long said I'd try to lock up Woodruff and move Burnes when the time comes, and part of it has always been this fear that he's really a 1-pitch guy and knowing we can't keep both, especially given the contract Burnes would get as a free agent.  

[Jopal78]

6 hours ago, DHonks said:

In 5 starts, Burnes has had one great outing.  The rest have been mediocre to solid, but not Cy Young caliber.  I'm not sure the sites people go to for the raw data, but the quick observations are that his velocity is down (throwing 91-93 on the cutter instead of 94-97) and he his cutter isn't moving much at all.  While he has good spin rates on the other pitches, they all play off his cutter.  He's getting fewer swinging strikes than much less heralded opponents.  I'm sure there's data to back up what I'm describing, just not sure where to find cutter movement and velocity relative to last year.  

I've long said I'd try to lock up Woodruff and move Burnes when the time comes, and part of it has always been this fear that he's really a 1-pitch guy and knowing we can't keep both, especially given the contract Burnes would get as a free agent.  

I think your first sentence answered the question; it’s been five starts. Shane Bieber hasn’t pitched impressively yet either in 5; while Alex Manoah has gotten clobbered in most his 5 starts so far.

Burnes didn’t have his stuff yesterday yet didn’t pitch horribly (5ip 2er 5k) and kept the team in the game. 
 

After the dust clears on his 28 remaining  starts I think Burnes’s numbers will be fine. 

[Jake McKibbin]

I think there is an element of predictability. His first inning was unlucky with infield hit, but he is definitely struggling to miss bats more than usual with his cutter

[MrTPlush]

Too busy using his mouth to tell us how much he is worth versus showing us with his arm.

Honestly though, it is early. I would be concerned come June.

[SF70]

1 hour ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I think there is an element of predictability. His first inning was unlucky with infield hit, but he is definitely struggling to miss bats more than usual with his cutter

His whiff-rate has plummeted because he’s lost command of all his pitches, but especially his cutter. And until he can re-gain that command he’s going to be nowhere near the ace-caliber pitcher he was prior.

 

[SF70]

1 minute ago, MrTPlush said:

Too busy using his mouth to tell us how much he is worth versus showing us with his arm.

Honestly though, it is early. I would be concerned come June.

Come June this team could be looking up at the standings unless Burnes turns it around quickly., and I’m not just talking about Pittsburgh either.

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Come June this team could be looking up at the standings unless Burnes turns it around quickly., and I’m not just talking about Pittsburgh either.

 

They are 15-7 ... with Burnes pitching lackluster by his standards, but still not terribly. They'll be OK IMO. 

[SF70]

3 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

They are 15-7 ... with Burnes pitching lackluster by his standards, but still not terribly. They'll be OK IMO. 

The rotation is hanging-on by a thread. Houser is injury-prone, the same with Miley. Lauer sitting 90-92. Rea is probably a mirage. Junk is junk. Gasser can’t command.

With Woody & Ashby down long-term, the team can’t afford any more injuries to their starters and expect to get to the deadline in serious contention, imo.

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

9 minutes ago, SF70 said:

The rotation is hanging-on by a thread. Houser is injury-prone, the same with Miley. Lauer sitting 90-92. Rea is probably a mirage. Junk is junk. Gasser can’t command.

With Woody & Ashby down long-term, the team can’t afford any more injuries to their starters and expect to get to the deadline in serious contention, imo.

 

Guess we better hope that this is the "glass is half empty" viewpoint, then. Burnes and Freddy are a pretty great 1-2 punch at the top. Lauer (despite not at mid-season velo levels quite yet) has been good. Miley has been good. Rea (against all odds) has been serviceable. Yes, Houser is injury prone, but right now he's your 5-6th starter, even with Woody out for a while. 

I agree that the team cannot afford more injuries to their starters -- especially Burnes and Peralta. They lost a near ace-level pitcher in Woody two starts into the year. There are only a handful of teams that have the starting depth to be able to handle a blow like that and still remain competitive. It is very fortunate that, at least on paper, the Brewers are one of those teams. 

[MrTPlush]

59 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Come June this team could be looking up at the standings unless Burnes turns it around quickly., and I’m not just talking about Pittsburgh either.

 

Hate for him to be the reason we miss the playoffs again.

[Fear The Chorizo]

It's early, but it's also worth noting that it's quite possible the ~1.5 seasons of historic dominance that Burnes displayed in 2020-2021 that led to him winning a Cy Young probably aren't automatically repeatable.  Expecting any pitcher to maintain an all-time level of dominance just because he displayed that over portions of 2 and 3 seasons ago is likely unrealistic.

Burnes still profiles as a frontline starter, and if he stays healthy he'll undoubtedly have stretches of great starts - but he simply might not be the caliber of pitcher who's a threat to toss a perfect game every turn he has in the rotation.

[stoutdude04]

It looks like his velo is down(along with a lot of pitchers right now).  He was always a pitcher that took a lot of time between pitches.  I wonder if the pitch clock is having a major effect on him as well?  I was at the game yesterday and could tell he wasnt sharp early on.  Even with that there was an off the end of the bat infield single, a jam shot bloop with an error that led to a run.  Then the 2 'earned runs' came because of a misplayed bunt.  He had an opportunity to go 6 innings with no runs potentially if the defense showed up.

With that being said, it is surely a concern moving forward.  I agree with SF70 - I am worried about the pitching staff with Woody being down for an extended amount of time.

[wallus]

Like stoutdude said, I think the pitch clock is going to affect guys with big velocities more than control pitchers. You won't have time to rest between pitches and catch your breath. Hopefully the pitch clock didn't have a hand in the injury to Woodruff.

Has anyone seen any articles relating to if pitching injuries are up this year? 

[brewcrewdue80]

31 minutes ago, stoutdude04 said:

It looks like his velo is down(along with a lot of pitchers right now).  He was always a pitcher that took a lot of time between pitches.  I wonder if the pitch clock is having a major effect on him as well?  I was at the game yesterday and could tell he wasnt sharp early on.  Even with that there was an off the end of the bat infield single, a jam shot bloop with an error that led to a run.  Then the 2 'earned runs' came because of a misplayed bunt.  He had an opportunity to go 6 innings with no runs potentially if the defense showed up.

With that being said, it is surely a concern moving forward.  I agree with SF70 - I am worried about the pitching staff with Woody being down for an extended amount of time.

We do remember that Burnes' previous start ended with a pec strain right?  Hard to believe anyone would go right back out their next start and pitch fully confident immediately.  It was to be expected couple of innings to regain confidence that his pec would hold up. Probably the reason Counsell pulled him after 5 when he was at 91 pitch count with 3 straight quality pitched innings(retired 9 of 11 batters) Maybe also why velo was down yesterday as noted. 

Let's see 4 more starts hopefully healthy ones before fearing he's no longer the Ace he was.

[Brewcrew82]

Alternatively, at the moment, we could turn around and ask, "what's wrong with"? Alcantara, Nola, Wheeler, Manoah, etc...

Every year, you have aces who start the season slow. Burnes happens to be one of those pitchers this year. 

The Arizona start and the last three innings of yesterday's start show it's still there. As he said post-game yesterday, the pec thing kind of threw off his routine this week and he's looking forward to getting back to normal this week.

[Brewcrew82]

5 hours ago, SF70 said:

Come June this team could be looking up at the standings unless Burnes turns it around quickly., and I’m not just talking about Pittsburgh either.

 

If you want to talk about mirages, you can probably start with Pittsburgh...

[Team Canada]

Didn't Burnes have a pretty average 2nd half last year too? I'm not great at digging up status, but I know that was true for ERA.

[sveumrules]

33 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

Didn't Burnes have a pretty average 2nd half last year too? I'm not great at digging up status, but I know that was true for ERA.

Here are Burnes breakdowns by year with 2022 split in half at the ASB...

2020
59 IP | 155 K%+ | 109 BB%+ | 23 HR9+ | 47 ERA- | 46 FIP-
(first glimpse of CY Burnes calibre performance, though the walks were still high)

2021
167 IP | 153 K%+ | 58 BB%+ | 31 HR9+ | 58 ERA- | 38 FIP-
(Ks and HRs about the same, massive improvement in walks brought the FIP down 8%)

2022 H1
113 IP | 144 K%+ | 79 BB%+ | 86 HR9+ | 53 ERA- | 73 FIP-
(Ks down slightly, walks and HRs especially up big time, ERA still fine but FIP showing cracks)

2022 H2
88 IP | 123 K%+ | 75 BB%+ | 102 HR9+ | 98 ERA- | 86 FIP-
(Ks falling off more, HR climbing higher, ERA now in league average-ish range)

Overall 2023 is pretty ugly so far at 27 IP | 86 K%+ | 95 BB%+ | 85 HR9+ | 106 ERA- | 102 FIP-, remove the first two clunkers and Burnes is at a lil more respectable 18 IP | 106 K%+ | 80 BB%+ | 43 HR9+ | 46 ERA- | 71 FIP- over his last three starts, which isn't that far off from the first half of 2022 at least from a bottom line standpoint, though the Ks are still way down.

Add it all up, and from the 2nd half of 2022 through today Burnes is at 114 K%+ | 80 BB%+ | 98 HR9+ | 100 ERA- | 90 FIP- over his last 116 IP.

[SF70]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Here are Burnes breakdowns by year with 2022 split in half at the ASB...

2020
59 IP | 155 K%+ | 109 BB%+ | 23 HR9+ | 47 ERA- | 46 FIP-
(first glimpse of CY Burnes calibre performance, though the walks were still high)

2021
167 IP | 153 K%+ | 58 BB%+ | 31 HR9+ | 58 ERA- | 38 FIP-
(Ks and HRs about the same, massive improvement in walks brought the FIP down 8%)

2022 H1
113 IP | 144 K%+ | 79 BB%+ | 86 HR9+ | 53 ERA- | 73 FIP-
(Ks down slightly, walks and HRs especially up big time, ERA still fine but FIP showing cracks)

2022 H2
88 IP | 123 K%+ | 75 BB%+ | 102 HR9+ | 98 ERA- | 86 FIP-
(Ks falling off more, HR climbing higher, ERA now in league average-ish range)

Overall 2023 is pretty ugly so far at 27 IP | 86 K%+ | 95 BB%+ | 85 HR9+ | 106 ERA- | 102 FIP-, remove the first two clunkers and Burnes is at a lil more respectable 18 IP | 106 K%+ | 80 BB%+ | 43 HR9+ | 46 ERA- | 71 FIP- over his last three starts, which isn't that far off from the first half of 2022 at least from a bottom line standpoint, though the Ks are still way down.

Add it all up, and from the 2nd half of 2022 through today Burnes is at 114 K%+ | 80 BB%+ | 98 HR9+ | 100 ERA- | 90 FIP- over his last 116 IP.

So since the second-half of the ‘22 season until right now — a slightly above average league starter — a weak #3? sound about right?

[sveumrules]

3 hours ago, SF70 said:

So since the second-half of the ‘22 season until right now — a slightly above average league starter — a weak #3? sound about right?

Yeah, something like that. His K/BB ratios are still better than average, but the HR rate and ERA have been essentially right at league average over that stretch.

I think the Ks will bounce back as the season goes on, but that historic level of HR prevention from 20/21 very likely isn’t coming back again for any extended stretch of IP, which puts his ceiling moving forward much closer to 1st half of 22 for me.

That’s still an All Star or #1/#2 starter depending how you want to slice it, just not OMG best pitcher in baseball level like 21/22.

[DHonks]

18 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Yeah, something like that. His K/BB ratios are still better than average, but the HR rate and ERA have been essentially right at league average over that stretch.

I think the Ks will bounce back as the season goes on, but that historic level of HR prevention from 20/21 very likely isn’t coming back again for any extended stretch of IP, which puts his ceiling moving forward much closer to 1st half of 22 for me.

That’s still an All Star or #1/#2 starter depending how you want to slice it, just not OMG best pitcher in baseball level like 21/22.

Thanks for the insights.  My comment was never to say Burnes is trash. He’s really got one dynamite pitch and several others that play a lot better when the cutter is working.  I’m concerned that his velocity is down 3-5 mph and his cutter isn’t cutting.  However good the spin rates on the others are, let’s remember he had those pitches when he was statistically the worst pitcher in MLB—The difference being the emergence of the best cutter in baseball.  We can be fine with Burnes being a 5-6IP 2-3 ER guy, but hopefully he’s able to find his feel for the cutter soon.  

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, DHonks said:

Thanks for the insights.  My comment was never to say Burnes is trash. He’s really got one dynamite pitch and several others that play a lot better when the cutter is working.  I’m concerned that his velocity is down 3-5 mph and his cutter isn’t cutting.  However good the spin rates on the others are, let’s remember he had those pitches when he was statistically the worst pitcher in MLB—The difference being the emergence of the best cutter in baseball.  We can be fine with Burnes being a 5-6IP 2-3 ER guy, but hopefully he’s able to find his feel for the cutter soon.  

His velocity is not down 3-5 MPH. It's down 1 tick...

[Jake McKibbin]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/have-you-tried-turning-corbin-burnes-off-then-turning-him-back-on-again/

 

Really good fangraphs piece, spotted some technical change and suggested bashing Burnes over the head to reset him like a computer

[DHonks]

Very good piece that matches the eye test with data.  One thing I always noticed was that pitchers that brought their hands low and way behind them tended to be sinkerballers.   Derek Lowe and Jamey Wright come to mind. I don’t think either was ever known for command. Much like other sports (thinking golf) maybe a shorter motion works better for him.  The author didn’t get into his changeup…must be normal.  Regardless the successful Burnes has always been primarily a 1-pitch guy that happened to have decent secondary pitches.  But EVERYTHING starts and ends with the cutter