Article: Should The Brewers Extend Adrian Houser?

[Harold Hutchison]

Following a hellacious 0-5 start to a six-game road trip to Colorado and San Francisco, the Brewers pulled out a win behind a decent outing from Adrian Houser, fresh off the injured list. This leads to a very big question: Should the Brewers extend Houser?

Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

To understand, we should look at Adrian Houser's tenure with the team.

Houser came to Milwaukee as part of the Carlos Gomez trade – along with Josh Hader, Brett Phillips, and Domingo Santana. He’s the last of that return to arrive in Milwaukee. However, the Brewers got a year-plus of Mike Moustakas splitting time between second and third base. The return for Hader included William Contreras, prospect Robert Gasser, and reliever Joel Payamps.

He had a brief cup of coffee with the Crew in 2015, then spent large chunks of 2016 and 2017 on the disabled list. He returned in 2018, and starting in 2019, he became a solid #4/#5 starter for the Crew behind Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta. Of course, he posted a complete game shutout in that timeframe, something the aces haven’t done. Even though he started 2023 on the disabled list, it wasn’t an arm injury this time.

Over his career with the Brewers, he’s had a 3.97 ERA, good enough to post an ERA+ of 106, with a FIP of 4.24. In his last two full seasons, he’s given up far fewer home runs than in 2019 and 2020. He was slated to work out of the bullpen this year but took a rotation spot due to injuries to Woodruff and Aaron Ashby.

If one thing has been a common thread, it’s been injuries the last two years. Woodruff, Peralta, and Ashby have spent time on the IL in addition to Houser. The Brewers have had to turn to Jason Alexander, Janson Junk, and Colin Rea to fill in. While neither was completely awful, Alexander is on the 60-day IL, Junk’s first (and only) outing so far was rough, and Rea has shown that while he’s solid, he can give up a few gopher balls.

Keep in mind the high likelihood that Burnes and Woodruff may be traded this coming offseason. That will affect the team’s depth – even if they have pitchers with a year or two of MLB experience under their belt. Wade Miley could be a free agent due to a $10 million mutual option for 2024 – and he’s been pitching like an ace.

But there is another factor. Houser has a proven track record of being a solid contributor. There’s something to be said for having known commodities on the team, especially when a lot of turnover is projected. After the fallout from the Josh Hader trade, the Brewers have been working to improve their mindfulness of the clubhouse atmosphere – as evidenced by the “lunch dates” players are having.

Houser’s comps make it a little harder to nail down a good extension. His IL stints could be costly, but when he is out there, he is solid and can put up a spectacular outing.

So, what should an extension for Houser look like? Given the nature of the comps from Baseball reference, which range from contemporaries barely in arbitration like Zach Plesac and Jamie Barria to late 1980s two-year wonder Mike Dunne to Negro League pitchers Bill Gatewood and Eugene Smith, it’s hard to ballpark. Tyler Glasnow may be the best bet, but he reportedly will get $25 million in 2024. That won’t happen in one year for Houser, but offering $5 million a year for five years would make sense. 

Sounds expensive? Probably, but if the Brewers have learned anything from the Hader trade and the spate of rotation injuries for the past couple of years, reliable starting pitching and good fits in the clubhouse are things you can’t have too much of.

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[wiguy94]

Like the Brent Suter article, this article feels absolutely unnecessary. Giving a 30 year old Houser a 5 year extension when he's only had 1 season in his career with a FIP below 4 might be one of the worst decisions a FO could do especially one with a limited budget like we have.

[Brewcrew82]

No. 

[wiguy94]

Also Tyler Glasnow as a comp for Houser is so hilariously inaccurate. I genuinely have zero clue how you ever could have come to that comparison.

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Like the Brent Suter article, this article feels absolutely unnecessary. Giving a 30 year old Houser a 5 year extension when he's only had 1 season in his career with a FIP below 4 might be one of the worst decisions a FO could do especially one with a limited budget like we have.

Did you click on it? Were there ads on your screen?

Mission accomplished. 

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Also Tyler Glasnow as a comp for Houser is so hilariously inaccurate. I genuinely have zero clue how you ever could have come to that comparison.

Baseball Reference has this comparable score. It is entirely based on old school counting stats though. In some ways the comps can actually be pretty relevant. Less experience the weirder it can get though, as is being a reliever/starter like Houser. Corbin Burnes has Logan Webb as his #3 comp.

Trying to use it to comp two players for talent and/or future earnings type stuff is getting pretty unrealistic. There is probably a reason none of the comps made any sense for Adrian Houser. Probably because guys like Houser don't get long term contracts or even last long enough to try. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think they should trade Houser for Suter and then extend Suter.

[Frisbee Slider]

Two seasons above replacement level (2019 and 2021).

Two seasons below replacement level (2020 and 2022)

Houser’s 13 IP in 2018 were essentially replacement level.

Conclusion: At age 30, this is not the player you make a multi-year commitment to. Maybe two-years at affordable contract? He probably could get a short multi-year deal in free agency.  
 

In any case, no rush.

[brewcrewdue80]

Houser isn't at a 3year FA contract level at this moment. He's more at the 1+mutual Option type FA contract. His role was to become a RP this season. And now we're back at SP. If we see an extension this offseason I'd figure they pay him his last season of Arb and put a mutual option to it. Maybe sounds like an in-season deal. He's a swing man pitcher at the moment. Your best comp would probably be Carlos Villanueva who fit that role that I believe got a deal at some point with the Cubs...tanking years? 

[Outlander]

I don't think anybody can say his role was going to be RP this season without making assumptions, he has always been a starter and still is. They have him under control next year and actually wouldn't be surprised if he signed a couple year deal in the off season to avoid arbitration and get some more guaranteed money in '25. However, not seeing a five year deal. If his trends hold true, he should be good the rest of the year so that is all I am hoping for at this point.

[Jake McKibbin]

1 minute ago, Outlander said:

I don't think anybody can say his role was going to be RP this season without making assumptions, he has always been a starter and still is. They have him under control next year and actually wouldn't be surprised if he signed a couple year deal in the off season to avoid arbitration and get some more guaranteed money in '25. However, not seeing a five year deal. If his trends hold true, he should be good the rest of the year so that is all I am hoping for at this point.

The Brewers informed him, per Journal Sentinel this is, at the start of camp that if everyone remained healthy through camp he would be used as a relief pitcher

[Outlander]

Which is a pretty big assumption with any starting rotation, certainly the case with the Brewers where there is limited to no depth.

[TURBO]

I seriously thought this was going to be satire, kind of onion like, but this is actually a serious article?

Easy answer is NO, and I don't think it is even necessary to give reasons why. 

[Harold Hutchison]

Let's kick this article up after Houser's latest scoreless outing.

He's making the case with how he is pitching. 

[duewizard]

Maybe buy out his next year of arbitration and a year of FA depending on how he does this year. I wouldn't really be comfortable with anything more.