Varland DFA

[markedman5]

Does that mean the Dodgers don’t want him back?

https://twitter.com/cyrthogg/status/1658563193847926784?s=61&t=tNSvKVmgA1nX3v5U-Jh_fA

[markedman5]

 

[duewizard]

Really unfortunate. I had high hopes for him and he started brightly but after that line drive to the face he had just not been the same.

[markedman5]

10 minutes ago, duewizard said:

Really unfortunate. I had high hopes for him and he started brightly but after that line drive to the face he had just not been the same.

So I’m not sure how it works with rule 5 guys……if nobody trades for him or picks him up…..can the Brewers outright him to AAA or does he become a free agent?

[Robocaller]

Bad end to his Brewers' career, if this is the end.

[Brewcrew82]

Not ready for prime time.

[patrickgpe]

yeah i think that line drive really did a number on him. 

[wiguy94]

33 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

So I’m not sure how it works with rule 5 guys……if nobody trades for him or picks him up…..can the Brewers outright him to AAA or does he become a free agent?

He goes back to the Dodgers (not with a 40-man spot) if nobody claims him. 

[Jopal78]

18 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

He goes back to the Dodgers (not with a 40-man spot) if nobody claims him. 

He’s offered back to the Dodgers for $25,000. If they decline to take him, he’d remain with the Brewers organization.

Not to add injury to insult, but the Brewers seemingly bungled their bullpen this year calling up guys who are 6th or 7th on the depth chart, meanwhile…

 

[sveumrules]

9 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Not to add injury to insult, but the Brewers seemingly bungled their bullpen this year calling up guys who are 6th or 7th on the depth chart, meanwhile…

 

Brewers relievers have a +2.62 Win Probability Added so far, the 2nd best mark in MLB.

All six relievers with at least 10 IP have an ERA- better than league average and only Milner has been worse than average by FIP-, splits in parentheses…

Wilson (77/84), Payamps (65/95), Strzelecki (81/51), Milner (92/123), Williams (17/54), Peguero (37/78).

[wiguy94]

7 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Brewers relievers have a +2.62 Win Probability Added so far, the 2nd best mark in MLB.

All six relievers with at least 10 IP have an ERA- better than league average and only Milner has been worse than average by FIP-, splits in parentheses…

Wilson (77/84), Payamps (65/95), Strzelecki (81/51), Milner (92/123), Williams (17/54), Peguero (37/78).

Yeah our leverage bullpen hasn’t been a problem since Bush was put on the IL. The low leverage guys have been brutal though. 
 

Varland, Guerra, Bush combine for 17% of our bullpen’s IP and 40% of the ER. There are 18 RP with 7+ IP and and 8+ ERA and the Brewers have 3 of them. 

[MVP2110]

I don't like that the Brewers seemingly gave up on Varland after 1 terrible outing. Yes it was God awful. But his era outside of that 1 outing was 2.25. He genuinely looked like he had great stuff.

[wiguy94]

Just now, MVP2110 said:

I don't like that the Brewers seemingly gave up on Varland after 1 terrible outing. Yes it was God awful. But his era outside of that 1 outing was 2.25. He genuinely looked like he had great stuff.

His peripheral numbers were awful long before yesterday. That 2.25 ERA was very fake and he was getting extremely lucky.

[MVP2110]

6 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

His peripheral numbers were awful long before yesterday. That 2.25 ERA was very fake and he was getting extremely lucky.

We are talking about a very small sample of 8 outings. If we were going to give up on him after 8 mostly good outings what was even the point of keeping him. Before his injury he looked really good. Maybe seeing if he could get back to that would have been nice rather than casting him aside after 1 terrible outing 

[markedman5]

https://twitter.com/adammccalvy/status/1658612048216096768?s=61&t=42oyiJ_sDrM_LLbWWIX_mA

[wiguy94]

32 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

We are talking about a very small sample of 8 outings. If we were going to give up on him after 8 mostly good outings what was even the point of keeping him. Before his injury he looked really good. Maybe seeing if he could get back to that would have been nice rather than casting him aside after 1 terrible outing 

He was also completely terrible his entire rehab assignment. In 14.1 IP between the MLB, AAA and A+ he had an 11.3 ERA. 

[pitchleague]

As others said, it seems that he got a bit “testy” (to use a Uecker-word) once he got hit by that line drive.   I’d hate to see us give up on him, but it is the nature of a rule five player.  He certainly has flashes of goodness.

As for Gott and Topa, it’s the same thing.  They flashed some good stuff for us but weren’t consistently good (or healthy, in Topa’s case.). There’s no guarantee they would have performed for the Brewers this season the same way they have in Seattle (due to coaching, usage, or some other intangibles.). You tip your hat to them for finally finding “it” and you wish them luck.  
 

Relievers are a dime a dozen and seem to be the one position where you can be great one year and absolutely crummy the next.  And everyone accepts that.

[SomewhereInTime]

4 hours ago, MVP2110 said:

We are talking about a very small sample of 8 outings. If we were going to give up on him after 8 mostly good outings what was even the point of keeping him. Before his injury he looked really good. Maybe seeing if he could get back to that would have been nice rather than casting him aside after 1 terrible outing 

Marginal guys at the end of the bench or last guys in the pen just aren't going to get the benefit of a large sample size of appearances.  There's an endless supply of marginal players like this in AAA that can be acquired for next to nothing, try to find one that doesn't give up 9 runs in 2/3 of an inning.

[MVP2110]

2 minutes ago, SomewhereInTime said:

Marginal guys at the end of the bench or last guys in the pen just aren't going to get the benefit of a large sample size of appearances.  There's an endless supply of marginal players like this in AAA that can be acquired for next to nothing, try to find one that doesn't give up 9 runs in 2/3 of an inning.

Judging a guy based on one appearance instead of his other 8 seems misguided 

[SomewhereInTime]

1 minute ago, MVP2110 said:

Judging a guy based on one appearance instead of his other 8 seems misguided 

I mean he did walk 3 guys in 1.1 innings in the outing before that and as was already mentioned he struggled in the minors during rehab.

[MVP2110]

Just now, SomewhereInTime said:

I mean he did walk 3 guys in 1.1 innings in the outing before that and as was already mentioned he struggled in the minors during rehab.

Many guys struggle during rehab assignments. Judging someone based on a rehab assignment also feels misguided. He was a successful pitcher before the injury and has even worked himself into some setup roles. I'd have liked to see him get a chance to come back from that rather than toss him out after one admittedly horrible outing 

[SomewhereInTime]

1 minute ago, MVP2110 said:

Many guys struggle during rehab assignments. Judging someone based on a rehab assignment also feels misguided. He was a successful pitcher before the injury and has even worked himself into some setup roles. I'd have liked to see him get a chance to come back from that rather than toss him out after one admittedly horrible outing 

Yeah, idk, I'm just gonna have to completely disagree with that, obviously the Brewers do too.

[MVP2110]

1 minute ago, SomewhereInTime said:

Yeah, idk, I'm just gonna have to completely disagree with that, obviously the Brewers do too.

As pointed out earlier in this thread the Brewers have a recent history of giving up on pitchers too soon

[wiguy94]

22 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

Many guys struggle during rehab assignments. Judging someone based on a rehab assignment also feels misguided. He was a successful pitcher before the injury and has even worked himself into some setup roles. I'd have liked to see him get a chance to come back from that rather than toss him out after one admittedly horrible outing 

His rehab assignment was originally supposed to be 2 games at A+. He pitched so terribly during those games that they sent him to AAA instead of calling him back to the MLB.

Of the 431 pitchers with at least 25 batted ball events this is where those numbers would stand.

xwOBA - 431st

xERA - 431st 

Avg EV - 430th

Hard hit % - 419th

Barrel % - 422nd

 

Of 442 pitchers with at least 8 IP this is where his ERA, FIP, xFIP, K%, BB% K-BB%, WHIP would stand.

ERA - 438th

FIP - 441st

xFIP - 429th 

K% - 427th

BB% - 412th 

K-BB% - 432nd

WHIP - 441st

 

He was legitimately one of if not the worst pitchers in the MLB this season. One bad game like yesterday isn't going to make all those numbers so bad.

[wiguy94]

Also our 2-6 in the bullpen are racking up a ridiculous amount of IP right now. We can't afford to keep a guy like Varland who can't eat innings or spot fill a leverage/middle relief inning from the other guys.

This is the IP pace our 2-6 are on.

Wilson - 83 IP

Payamps - 81 IP

Peguero - 77 IP (counting his AAA innings)

Strzelecki - 75 IP

Milner - 70 IP

That's just not a sustainable burden to put on your middle relief/non-closer leverage guys. They cannot keep pitching this many innings all season. Brewers need to use those 7th/8th spots for shuttle guys to try and find another Peguero who can stick in the bullpen. Varland being a Rule 5 guy prevents that shuttle from churning.