Article: Colin Rea vs. Adrian Houser: Who Should Be the Brewers' Fifth Starter?

[Jake McKibbin]

The Brewers' rotation is healthy enough to enjoy some stability, but it hasn't been the reliable group the team needs. Too many games are getting loose early, forcing the below-average lineup to produce at an above-average clip in order to win. Is a different fifth starter the answer to that problem?

Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Colin Rea has been a serviceable pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers during their time of need, usually keeping things close enough that a decent offensive performance can grab the win. However, his statcast page is beginning to resemble Jason Alexander’s, with minimal chase rates, minimal whiffs, minimal curveball movement or fastball velocity. He has avoided barrels well enough to limit the damage, but he feels like a bomb waiting to explode, and he certainly can’t be credited with actively winning the Brewers games. 

Compare this to Adrian Houser, who was moved to the bullpen upon Wade Miley’s return. Since his last start on June 9, he’s made just two appearances, throwing four innings of relief in a game that had gotten away from the Brewers on June 19 and mopping up an inning against the Guardians Friday night.

Houser has brought down his career-high line drive rate of 2022 (26.1% down to 21.3%) and increased his groundball rate back to 52.5%--not quite as effective as in his prime, but still able to generate a lot of weak grounders and cheap outs to a strong defense. He is in the 64th percentile for expected opponent slugging and walk rate, and 88th percentile for barrels, all key to his performance.

When he himself returned from the injured list, Houser was using his four-seam fastball to left-handers with great effect, but it seems hitters have caught up to it now. They’re posting an average exit velocity of 97 miles per hour on it. However, Houser does still generate whiffs when he ties that heater in with his sinker. His changeup and slider have generated consistently weak contact, and his sinker has an average launch angle of 0 degrees, exactly what he would be hoping for.

Have a look at the quality of contact against each of these pitchers:
 
Houser

Rea

The most immediately noticeable stat is that Houser has a 2.8% solid contact rate, and 4.3% barrel rate, compared to Rea with 7% for each of those. Houser has limited hard and damaging contact much more effectively. Out of this alone, I cannot understand why Rea is getting more innings, with higher average leverage.

Rea has gone through six innings just twice, and while he has the occasional gem, such as his eight-strikeout, five-inning shutdown of the Orioles earlier this month, he has also conceded at least three runs through five innings in his other three starts this month, for an ERA that is only rising as the league gets a good look at him.

Houser did have a blowup start against the A’s, due mostly to walking hitters, something he hadn’t done much of so far this season. However, he has a track record of producing quality starts and being able to get on top of a lineup in a way that Rea just can’t.
Houser does still struggle to corral left-handed batters, in particular with his command. He tries to use his sinker less against them, resulting in a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1:1, but given the lack of barrels and hard-hit balls against him, even walking the occasional lefty isn’t going to harm him often.

Is Adrian Houser a perfect pitcher? No. Is he likely, over a five-game stretch, to give you better starts than Colin Rea? Unquestionably.

View full article

[Brewcrew82]

Robert Gasser

[Jopal78]

7 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Robert Gasser

Gasser is walking more batters per 9 in AAA than did Colin Rea and Jason Alexander. That’s why he has yet to be a viable option for the major league team. 

[sveumrules]

10 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Gasser is walking more batters per 9 in AAA than did Colin Rea and Jason Alexander. That’s why he has yet to be a viable option for the major league team. 

Gasser was walking the world to start the season but has reigned it in recently…

First seven starts…38 IP | 47 K | 25 BB | 4.74 ERA

Last six starts…36.1 IP | 40 K | 5 BB | 3.22 ERA

[jay87shot]

I would give Gasser at least 2 starts here and then go Houser if Gasser isn't quite ready. 

With our offense I feel like we need to go with the upside plays. Say a pitcher like Gasser has 2 good starts and 1 bad one (like 2 starts 6 inning, 1 run and 1 start 4 innings 4 runs). Houser and Rea are more 5/6 innings and 3 runs. I feel like Gasser gives us a strong chance to play above .500 where as Houser/Rea could go 0-3 or 1-2 depending on offense hot streaks. 

[Brewcrew82]

43 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Gasser is walking more batters per 9 in AAA than did Colin Rea and Jason Alexander. That’s why he has yet to be a viable option for the major league team. 

I see you haven't been paying attention lately...

[CheezWizHed]

To show it mathematically (thus, I MUST be right!):

Hauser @SP > Rea @SP

but

Hauser @RP + Rea @SP > Hauser @SP + Rea @RP

The real question is when does Woody come back???

[Jopal78]

40 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I see you haven't been paying attention lately...

Nope, my statement remains 100% correct. His BB:9 in AAA is in fact higher than those other two.

Maybe he’s turned the corner with his command. The Brewers could use some good news from the farm system. 

But keep in mind there is a reason pitchers are being signed off the street and going right to the major leagues while guys like Gasser and Small cool their heels in AAA. 

[Brewcrew82]

9 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Nope, my statement remains 100% correct. His BB:9 in AAA is in fact higher than those other two.

Maybe he’s turned the corner with his command. The Brewers could use some good news from the farm system. 

But keep in mind there is a reason pitchers are being signed off the street and going right to the major leagues while guys like Gasser and Small cool their heels in AAA. 

Did you know that something called "development" occurs with prospects? Fact of the matter is, as @sveumrulespoints out, he's walked 5 over his last 6 starts while striking out 40 (8.0 K/BB) over 36.1 IP with a 3.22 ERA. He's not the same pitcher he was earlier in the year, when the Brewers signed Teheran, who is literally the only pitcher you can say they signed off the street and brought directly to the major leagues. 

[jay87shot]

28 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

The real question is when does Woody come back???

He through a bullpen and said it would be a spring training like build up from there so around a month.

[CheezWizHed]

3 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

He through a bullpen and said it would be a spring training like build up from there so around a month.

Aargh.... Burnes' blow up Inning, Peralta's control, and Woody's health... its like all three of their major weaknesses all strike at the same time. 

[rickh150]

I’d stick with Rea for at least two more outings.  Houser plays a role in the pen- multiple middle innings guy who could pitch even more in a pinch. And Rea has shown enough in his entire body of work this season.

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

To show it mathematically (thus, I MUST be right!):

Hauser @SP > Rea @SP

but

Hauser @RP + Rea @SP > Hauser @SP + Rea @RP

The real question is when does Woody come back???

Agree with this. It's actually nice to have someone in the BP who can pitch effectively AND can be used for more than one inning. In the meantime I'd stick with Rea, while keeping an eye on Gassers' work (he definitely is trending upward) & Woodruffs' progress.

And golly gee, Jason Alexander is making his way back, too!!!!

[Jake McKibbin]

13 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Agree with this. It's actually nice to have someone in the BP who can pitch effectively AND can be used for more than one inning. In the meantime I'd stick with Rea, while keeping an eye on Gassers' work (he definitely is trending upward) & Woodruffs' progress.

And golly gee, Jason Alexander is making his way back, too!!!!

Isn't this Bryce Wilson's role, and one he's excelling in as well?

Do we need two long relievers? Especially as they're both used to maintain a deficit rather than be shutdown relievers

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Isn't this Bryce Wilson's role, and one he's excelling in as well?

Do we need two long relievers? Especially as they're both used to maintain a deficit rather than be shutdown relievers

Wilson has done a nice job filling his role, for sure. I see more than enough room for both of them as relievers, especially when you see Counsell regularly ask the pen to cover 3-4 innings; sometimes more. 

I think Houser can be used in situations other than when the team is trailing if need be. Maybe this can even lessen the need to add a BP arm or two every trade deadline.