Angels Acquire Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez from White Sox

[wiguy94]

13 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Because 1st round picks are extremely volatile in the MLB draft.  It has more to do with a draft as a whole plus international players.  Which the Angels have mostly ignored except for recently and other than Shohei they have all been busts so far.

You need to be able to draft and develop players in all of the rounds which the Brewers have been able to do with Burnes, Woodruff, Ashby and others.  Garrett Mitchell also has 1.3 WAR in only 44 games.  Frelick has also put up 0.4 WAR in only 4 games so far.  Wiemer has put up 1.3 WAR in 99 games so far but is not a 1st round pick. 

First round picks can be very volatile just take the 2017 draft as an example the Brewers took Hiura 9th overall and he has a fwar of 2.9 while the Angels took Jo Adell with the 10th pick for a -1.5 fWAR. 

If you go by just WAR the Angels haven't really out performed the Brewers by much and if you take all of their 1st round picks into consideration the Brewers are actually better and that is mostly due to Adell and his negative fWAR. 

Down on the Farm did an evaluation of this Brewers have been the better drafting team relative to draft pick value. 

https://downonthefarm.substack.com/p/the-most-successful-drafting-organizations

[nate82]

Just now, Jopal78 said:

Maybe, but outside the first round the baseball draft is mostly luck. Yet,  I imagine all the teams have similar lists of players they identified as first round talents. 

Certainly if ANY team, including Milwaukee, believed Corbin Burnes had top of the rotation/Cy Young potential coming out of college they would not take a chance waiting for the 4th round to pick him.  

It is not mostly luck it is all about development.  The Brewers haven't even been that great at developing players until recently.  The Angels have been far worse at developing the players they have drafted.

[LouisEly]

The other thing that this trade means is that Renfroe is likely off the table as a low-cost RF upgrade.

[nate82]

7 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Down on the Farm did an evaluation of this Brewers have been the better drafting team relative to draft pick value. 

https://downonthefarm.substack.com/p/the-most-successful-drafting-organizations

Right but that has only been recently.  The Brewers past track record has not been as good. 

[Brewcrew82]

15 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Maybe, but outside the first round the baseball draft is mostly luck. Yet,  I imagine all the teams have similar lists of players they identified as first round talents. 

For example if ANY team, including Milwaukee, believed Corbin Burnes had top of the rotation/Cy Young potential coming out of college they would not take a chance waiting for the 4th round to pick him.  

So now outside of the first round the baseball draft is mostly "luck"? Just when you think you've heard it all...

No, it's a product of good scouting/organizational philosophy and shrewd maneuvering around the bonus pool. Corbin Burnes wasn't a Cy Young pitcher when the Brewers' drafted him, but he fit a profile (namely high velocity and spin rate) that this organization has prioritized since the Melvin to Stearns turnover. And then they DEVELOPED that profile into a Cy Young winner. On the opposite end, you have organizations like the Angels and Cardinals (on the pitching side) who have targeted their pitchers and had it blown up in their faces for the most part. 

Sure, there's luck involved, particularly health, but that is far, far from the entire story. 

[Jopal78]

9 minutes ago, nate82 said:

It is not mostly luck it is all about development.  The Brewers haven't even been that great at developing players until recently.  The Angels have been far worse at developing the players they have drafted.

When you say recently, who do you mean? I wouldn’t call Braun, Fielder etc  recent. Most of their current players are major leaguers from other clubs.

I guess Ashby had 30 good innings in ‘21 wasn’t great in ‘22 then hurt his shoulder hard to say what they have there. By their own admission in DFA’ing him  they failed at developing Hiura. Tyrone Taylor is okay although he spent 6+ years in the minors.

Granted, who knows on Turang, Wiemer Frelick and Uribe they could all be great or they could just as easily be nothing, too early to tell. 

[nate82]

Just now, Jopal78 said:

When you say recently, who do you mean?

Within the last couple of years they have been focusing more on development and getting players that they can develop.  The people doing the drafting have also changed so Johnson and company have only been doing this for the last few years so Hiura wouldn't count towards this. 

 

 

[jay87shot]

The Angels are a joke, their rotation still isn't very good. Giolito is like a solid 3 when you get to the playoffs. There backend of the bullpen is solid with Estevez and Moore, Lopez can be a passable 7th inning guy but unspectacular. They have plenty of guys on offense if they could get healthy. However when healthy they aren't a great defensive or base running team. They have like an 8% chance of making the playoffs. Add on the worst minor league system after this trade. If they almost no interesting trade prospects after O'Hoppe who is there catcher just hurt.

Why would Shohei stay with what they have. Almost nothing after a injury prone Trout.

[jerichoholicninja]

18 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I liked your post until the last sentence. The original poster said “Worst in All of Sports” which clearly they’re not, and now you’re moving the goal posts to “one of the worst in the sport” and taking a shot at me. 

It doesn’t matter if it’s Ohtani and Trout, Ruth and Gehrig, Molitor and Yount, you can’t win with two players. What do big money teams do when they don’t have enough talent, they throw money at it. 

I said they were giving the Rockies a run for their money for worst in all of sports, so you can't even get that right. You're whole argument is "so what that they suck, at least they're trying". They have no plan, no strategy for how to be a competitive and competently run organization. They are basically a guy at a casino who hit big on a couple of pulls on the slot machine as soon as he got there but has bled most of that money away all night and keeps saying to himself "if I just gamble more I can win it back." Sometimes you just need to cash in your chips and go to bed before you go bankrupt.