Civale traded to the Rays for Manzardo

[KeithStone53151]

 

[Brewcrew82]

Holy crap. There's the biggest overpay of the deadline. Nice coup for Cleveland. Now, I kind of want to know what Burnes would have fetched. 

Don't get me wrong, Civale is having a great season, but he's drastically overperforming his underlying data and is not what I would call a needle moving arm. 

[KeithStone53151]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

Holy crap. There's the biggest overpay of the deadline. Nice coup for Cleveland. Now, I kind of want to know what Burnes would have fetched. 

It says a lot about how valuable pitching is compared to hitting at this deadline. Civale is under team control for 2 additional seasons. This really should drive home that it isn't exactly a sellers market on the hitting front, and it would make some sense to trade one of Houser/Rea for a position player if they are valued by another team.

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

It says a lot about how valuable pitching is compared to hitting at this deadline. Civale is under team control for 2 additional seasons. This really should drive home that it isn't exactly a sellers market on the hitting front, and it would make some sense to trade one of Houser/Rea for a position player if they are valued by another team.

Yep. Civale is good, but I don't think he's a difference maker. Though, he does have two years of control left after this season. 

FWIW, BTV says this is a slight overpay by Cleveland, but I disagree there as Manzardo is an absolute elite bat. 

[patrickgpe]

7 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Holy crap. There's the biggest overpay of the deadline. Nice coup for Cleveland. Now, I kind of want to know what Burnes would have fetched. 

Don't get me wrong, Civale is having a great season, but he's drastically overperforming his underlying data and is not what I would call a needle moving arm. 

it is a large overpay, but I think this is what the pitching market is. There are way more buyers than sellers. He is a talented controllable arm. There will be a price. This is why I hope they roll the dice with Woodruff and Miley coming back and try to get a bat. 

[owbc]

Not a buy move that I would have expected from the Rays, but I can see why they wanted to solidify their playoff position after scuffling since their hot start. Similar to the Luis Castillo trade last year -- steep price to pay but they will reap the reward of adding a TOR stater. 

[wildcat2237]

18 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Holy crap. There's the biggest overpay of the deadline. Nice coup for Cleveland. Now, I kind of want to know what Burnes would have fetched. 

Don't get me wrong, Civale is having a great season, but he's drastically overperforming his underlying data and is not what I would call a needle moving arm. 

Its a sellers market. Burnes would have been the class of the crop outside of Ohtani (whos not being traded). Haul would have been insane. So good, I bet the Brewers would have been back in contention in 2025. 

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, owbc said:

Not a buy move that I would have expected from the Rays, but I can see why they wanted to solidify their playoff position after scuffling since their hot start. Similar to the Luis Castillo trade last year -- steep price to pay but they will reap the reward of adding a TOR stater. 

Thing is is I don't know if I'd call Civale a TOR starter, despite the year he's having. Castillo is a lot better than Civale. 

[sveumrules]

Manzardo was an elite bat up through AA, but has really underwhelmed at AAA this year with a 93 wRC+ so far. He's down 50 points of ISO and 65 points of BABIP from AA last year.

He was off to an okay start (115 wRC+ over 198 PA in May/June), then fell off to a 58 wRC+ over 116 PA in June/July before hitting the IL a few weeks ago with a sore shoulder.

Injury was likely affecting him, but the scouting reports are for for hit over power, so he's going to need to really hit for average and walk at a nice clip to get up to that 120 or so wRC+ needed to be a plus 1B in MLB.

Rays also have Yandy and Raley in house for some time yet, with last year's first round pick 1B Xavier Isaac putting up a 141 wRC+ as a 19 year old in A ball so they dealt from a position of strength.

[Jopal78]

Funny the comments about Civale and being a non-difference maker. His bWAR this year is better than Burnes, Scherzer and Giolito. 
 

In fact Civale isn’t too far off from Brandon Woodruff walks allowed per 9 and homers. He just hasn’t struck out as many and gives up one more hit per 9.

[82brewcrew82]

I trust the Rays judgement 100% of the time on things like this.  If they believe the bloom is off of the Manzardo rose then it probably is.

[sveumrules]

16 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Funny the comments about Civale and being a non-difference maker. His bWAR this year is better than Burnes, Scherzer and Giolito. 
 

In fact Civale isn’t too far off from Brandon Woodruff walks allowed per 9 and homers. He just hasn’t struck out as many and gives up one more hit per 9.

Civale has a 55 ERA- | 83 FIP- | 107 xFIP- | 82.7 LOB% over 77 IP this year versus a 97 ERA- | 98 FIP- | 96 xFIP- | 72.3 LOB% over 353 IP prior to this year.

His peripherals have gone from 95 K%+ | 70 BB%+ | 107 HR9+ entering the season, to 82 K%+ | 85 BB%+ | 48 HR9+ this year so pretty much the entirety of his shiny ERA is coming from an outlier HR rate and LOB% compared to his career norms.

I’d guess his ERA during his TBR tenure will end up closer to his career 4.05 FIP than it will his current 2.34 ERA.

[Jopal78]

13 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Civale has a 55 ERA- | 83 FIP- | 107 xFIP- | 82.7 LOB% over 77 IP this year versus a 97 ERA- | 98 FIP- | 96 xFIP- | 72.3 LOB% over 353 IP prior to this year.

His peripherals have gone from 95 K%+ | 70 BB%+ | 107 HR9+ entering the season, to 82 K%+ | 85 BB%+ | 48 HR9+ this year so pretty much the entirety of his shiny ERA is coming from an outlier HR rate and LOB% compared to his career norms.

I’d guess his ERA during his TBR tenure will end up closer to his career 4.05 FIP than it will his current 2.34 ERA.

Yep and with a 4.05 FIP he’ll pitch in the big leagues for a decade. 

[82brewcrew82]

Just now, Jopal78 said:

Yep and with a 4.05 FIP he’ll pitch in the big leagues for a decade. 

And that is assuming nothing changes.  I also trust the Rays ability to find and develop promising arms.  My guess is they think they can fix something and turn a good pitcher into a very good one at the cost of a non-elite prospect.

[Jopal78]

1 minute ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

And that is assuming nothing changes.  I also trust the Rays ability to find and develop promising arms.  My guess is they think they can fix something and turn a good pitcher into a very good one at the cost of a non-elite prospect.

I guess that’s my point,  folks are dogging Civale as not being a needle mover etc. He’s literally Yovani Gallardo already in terms of FIP and could still get better.  
 

 

[Brewcrew82]

17 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Yep and with a 4.05 FIP he’ll pitch in the big leagues for a decade. 

A 4.05 FIP doesn't make him a TOR starter or needle mover, though. He's been more solid-to-good than elite. 

[sveumrules]

4 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I guess that’s my point,  folks are dogging Civale as not being a needle mover etc. He’s literally Yovani Gallardo already in terms of FIP and could still get better.  

Gallardo was really only a “needle mover” in three seasons, 2007 (3.41 FIP), 2010 (3.02 FIP) and 2011 (3.59 FIP).

Civale is a perfectly cromulent SP, but not a guy you want fronting your rotation or even starting game 2 of a playoff series unless you have no better options.

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, sveumrules said:

Gallardo was really only a “needle mover” in three seasons, 2007 (3.41 FIP), 2010 (3.02 FIP) and 2011 (3.59 FIP).

Civale is a perfectly cromulent SP, but not a guy you want fronting your rotation or even starting game 2 of a playoff series unless you have no better options.

Right. And the Rays have certainly earned the benefit of the doubt. But I don't see moving Manzardo for that type of starter. 

Of course, I'm quite high on Manzardo. 

[Jopal78]

2 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Gallardo was really only a “needle mover” in three seasons, 2007 (3.41 FIP), 2010 (3.02 FIP) and 2011 (3.59 FIP).

Civale is a perfectly cromulent SP, but not a guy you want fronting your rotation or even starting game 2 of a playoff series unless you have no better options.

I guess we have different definitions of needle mover. 

[82brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Gallardo was really only a “needle mover” in three seasons, 2007 (3.41 FIP), 2010 (3.02 FIP) and 2011 (3.59 FIP).

Civale is a perfectly cromulent SP, but not a guy you want fronting your rotation or even starting game 2 of a playoff series unless you have no better options.

All of which tells me Manzardo is overrated.  Rays just don't trade elite talent for that.