Sun. 9/24 - Closing Out the Minor League Season

[Ro Mueller]

This thread will be utilized for any minor league news Sunday, lineup updates, etc.

Organizational Scoreboard including starting pitcher info, game times, MiLB TV links, and box scores

[Ro Mueller]

The Brewers’ minor league season finale is a nod to the future, with 19-year old Jackson Chourio getting his first start in center field for AAA Nashville, who aims to finish off a 5-1 home series win over Jacksonville and hold onto sole possession of first place in the West division second half standings. Rehabbing LHP Aaron Ashby will open for RHP Janson Junk. 

[wibadgers23]

Anyone know why Chourio left the game early?

[Never Outhustled]

How hard is Tobias Myers throwing as a reliever?

[Joseph Zarr]

19 minutes ago, Never Outhustled said:

How hard is Tobias Myers throwing as a reliever?

I haven't seen him today. BUT, he was touching 98 mph in his last two starts at Biloxi. His first outing with the Sounds he was touching 95-97 mph by my eyes (I could be recalling incorrectly). 

[Joseph Zarr]

RHP Caleb Boushley snuck into the broadcast booth during last year's finale. Looks like he did it again and he gets the Payton Henry HR shot to boot!

Looks like he had Chourio's double to boot:

 

[Joseph Zarr]

AND, with the 'W' the Sounds ensure they took their Division in the Second Half. A heck of a finish to their year. They played their best baseball (outside the Durham 1-5 shellacking) when they needed to but the Bulls were just that much better in the second half.

[wibadgers23]

Tyler Black had an unbelievable September and a pretty fantastic season overall.
 

Congratulations on a fantastic minor league season. Thanks to everyone for their hard work on this forum. Already can’t wait until March!

[Never Outhustled]

4 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I haven't seen him today. BUT, he was touching 98 mph in his last two starts at Biloxi. His first outing with the Sounds he was touching 95-97 mph by my eyes (I could be recalling incorrectly). 

Thanks. I'm intrigued. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

I thought Chourio would hold his own this last week, and obviously he has. But what I particularly liked was he gets promoted & shows no inclination to letting the moment get too big for him. Twenty-four PAs. One strikeout. There are gonna be mucho eyeballs on him & Black in March (to name only a couple).

Joseph, thanks for the Myers info. Finishing up his season with 24 Ks in his last 14.1 innings should make him sleep REALLY well.

[markedman5]

Ashby with another forgettable outing……..just a completely lost season without even any late season progress to feel good about.

 

[biedergb]

5 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

Ashby with another forgettable outing……..just a completely lost season without even any late season progress to feel good about.

 

Well, there is the fact that he pitched. At least he was able to get some real live innings.

Now the offseason to build up arm strength and learn that control. Hopeful that 2024 can be a recovery year. No need to rush him. If he can learn to pitch effectively let him get back to the bigs in late '24, or more likely in '25.

If he can't then this will be a devastating loss to the pitching pipeline, but one that can be overcome with other developing pitchers. Although there fewer high end pitching in the minors than in years past.

[Joseph Zarr]

40 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I thought Chourio would hold his own this last week, and obviously he has. But what I particularly liked was he gets promoted & shows no inclination to letting the moment get too big for him. Twenty-four PAs. One strikeout. There are gonna be mucho eyeballs on him & Black in March (to name only a couple).

Joseph, thanks for the Myers info. Finishing up his season with 24 Ks in his last 14.1 innings should make him sleep REALLY well.

He led the entire Brewers system in punch outs, for the year, with (I believe) in the mid 170's. He led all of the Southern League. Had his best work of the season in his last month after opening the year with an 11K outing. The coolest thing about these bullpen outings was the change-up and curveball work. That's what turned my eyes - it sets up that heat to really play and have better ride.

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, biedergb said:

Well, there is the fact that he pitched. At least he was able to get some real live innings.

Now the offseason to build up arm strength and learn that control. Hopeful that 2024 can be a recovery year. No need to rush him. If he can learn to pitch effectively let him get back to the bigs in late '24, or more likely in '25.

If he can't then this will be a devastating loss to the pitching pipeline, but one that can be overcome with other developing pitchers. Although there fewer high end pitching in the minors than in years past.

If 2024 is a recovery year, things will have gone much worse than they could have anticipated. They were hoping to get him back in the BP this year...until his first couple rehab starts. 

They should not be planning on spending another 10 months trying to build up his arm strength. 

He just needs to get that arm strength back and the control and command will come with the confidence of a healthy shoulder. 

 

I trust if it was a bad enough injury they even entertained the thought '2024 would be a lost year, they wouldn't have him throwing an Inning on the last day of the regular season.

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

He led the entire Brewers system in punch outs, for the year, with (I believe) in the mid 170's. He led all of the Southern League. Had his best work of the season in his last month after opening the year with an 11K outing. The coolest thing about these bullpen outings was the change-up and curveball work. That's what turned my eyes - it sets up that heat to really play and have better ride.

Well, if he ends up in the best player in the Junior Caminero trade, I'll be very happy!

[biedergb]

6 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

If 2024 is a recovery year, things will have gone much worse than they could have anticipated. They were hoping to get him back in the BP this year...until his first couple rehab starts. 

They should not be planning on spending another 10 months trying to build up his arm strength. 

He just needs to get that arm strength back and the control and command will come with the confidence of a healthy shoulder. 

 

I trust if it was a bad enough injury they even entertained the thought '2024 would be a lost year, they wouldn't have him throwing an Inning on the last day of the regular season.

Not every recovery goes as planned. And 20 years ago a shoulder surgery was the end of a career. Now it is a variable recovery, with most players returning within 6-12 months, probably higher end for pitchers. So think of Ashby as playing catch in live games at the what 6 month mark? That is a success right there.

Hitters can do pretty well. Most pitchers (67%) recover but only some can be close to pre-surgery (33% of those), and most have a shorter careers ae on average:

https://www.arthroscopysportsmedicineandrehabilitation.org/article/S2666-061X(23)00027-5/fulltext

It also depends on the type as rotator cuff repairs do poorly, while other can have better outcomes

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/23259671221140853

So if he can spend a bulk of next year ensuring the mechanics, strength and control are back, I'm happy to see him in 2024, but if it isn't until 2025 then just having him come back to pre-surgery form will be the goal.

[Jake McKibbin]

39 minutes ago, biedergb said:

Not every recovery goes as planned. And 20 years ago a shoulder surgery was the end of a career. Now it is a variable recovery, with most players returning within 6-12 months, probably higher end for pitchers. So think of Ashby as playing catch in live games at the what 6 month mark? That is a success right there.

Hitters can do pretty well. Most pitchers (67%) recover but only some can be close to pre-surgery (33% of those), and most have a shorter careers ae on average:

https://www.arthroscopysportsmedicineandrehabilitation.org/article/S2666-061X(23)00027-5/fulltext

It also depends on the type as rotator cuff repairs do poorly, while other can have better outcomes

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/23259671221140853

So if he can spend a bulk of next year ensuring the mechanics, strength and control are back, I'm happy to see him in 2024, but if it isn't until 2025 then just having him come back to pre-surgery form will be the goal.

I did an above piece on it earlier in the year, it's a really difficult surgery in terms of the recovery process because of the intricacy of the muscle fibres. The key thing will be if he still has the stuff by the start of next year. If not, he'll have to become markedly better with his control to survive in the big leagues.

I wouldn't be surprised if he goes from 97-98 top speed down to 93-94, but we'll not know for another six month. It's extraordinary he's pitching at all right now

[LouisEly]

11 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

He led the entire Brewers system in punch outs, for the year, with (I believe) in the mid 170's. He led all of the Southern League. Had his best work of the season in his last month after opening the year with an 11K outing. The coolest thing about these bullpen outings was the change-up and curveball work. That's what turned my eyes - it sets up that heat to really play and have better ride.

What do you think is behind the high HR rate?  1.45/9 in 2021, 1.78 in 2022, 1.92 in 2023.  Is there a particular pitch or situation that he is struggling with?

[Joseph Zarr]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

What do you think is behind the high HR rate?  1.45/9 in 2021, 1.78 in 2022, 1.92 in 2023.  Is there a particular pitch or situation that he is struggling with?

I would opine he became predictable with his lower velocity flatter fastball in the meat of the season. It's an entirely different pitch today than it was during the majority of the season. Everything was just vastly sharper as August progressed and he made it into September where he was lights out dominant. The bullpen work at Nashville - though a ridiculously small sample - speaks to this. In Nashville he had legitimate ride on his 95-98mph heater. When he was struggling, I saw a flat meaty 93-95 that didn't really ride. With that improvement (in velo and movement/ride) he really dialed in the mix of his off-speed. You can see my posts earlier in the season where I was urging him to lead with his off-speed as  his heater had become way too hittable as a lead pitch. Well, by September's end he could lead with anything. And, in a true relief role in Nashville (he had one appearance with Biloxi where he didn't start and pitched a scoreless inning), he put this on full display. One of the more exciting and unexpected storylines was how he wrapped up 2023 by putting it all together. He showed demonstrably he could strike people out but he lacked the fine-tuned pitches and pitch mix. Now we see how that carries into 2024 with the addendum: he is Rule 5 eligible. 

Given the strikeouts, what we saw late, and his possible flexibility as an immediate candidate to fill a middle relief taxi role (or better?) I would be entirely unsurprised if the Brewers choose to roster him. Wild development.