Smichaelis9’s 2024 Payroll Blueprint

[Spencer Michaelis]

Trade #1

BAL Acquires: RHP Corbin Burnes

MIL Acquires: 3B/1B Coby Mayo, OF Dylan Beavers, RHP Trace Bright

I believe the Brewers can trade Burnes and still be competitive in 2024. That's the aim of this trade. The Orioles receive the frontline starter they were missing in the playoffs this past season (though they will need to be convinced Burnes is that type of guy in the bigger moments).

The Brewers acquire one of their starting corner infielders for 2024 in Mayo. Beavers was a guy the Brewers liked a lot in the draft a year and a half ago, and Bright has some really good stuff, but middling command at the moment. Someone who could impact the MLB rotation by 2025 with an uptick in the command, or become a helpful pen arm even if the command doesn't improve much.

Trade #2

SEA Acquires: OF Garrett Mitchell, SS Freddy Zamora

MIL Acquires: RHP Bryan Woo

Both teams trade a strength for a relative weakness. The Brewers acquire a very talented young starter that could be part of the next era for this team. They are lacking some upper level pitching talent at the moment, especially in terms of sure-fire starters. Woo would really help fill that void that Woodruff and Burnes would be leaving behind.

The Mariners acquire an outfielder that could form an incredible defensive outfield with J-Rod, and he does have a lot of interesting offensive qualities. This would obviously rely on the Mariners being enamored with Mitchell's tools, and it's hard to know how he's valued league wide. If they're on the higher side of the Mitchell evaluation, then they are likely interested in this type of deal. If they're on the lower side, they would likely decline without a second thought. Idk, I'm having fun here so I'll lean toward a shot of it being accepted.

Trade #3

MIN Acquires: 2B/SS Brice Turang, RHP Yorman Galindez

MIL Acquires: 2B Jorge Polanco

Polanco adds some much needed power to the lineup, and does it at one of the worst offensive spots for the Brewers in 2023. For Minnesota, they're looking to shed some salary and Polanco is a clear candidate for that, so the return will likely need to be solid, but not spectacular. Polanco does have a team option for 2025 as well.

Turang gives them a very solid defensive floor and at least a semi-interesting bat to work with to go along with some of the excitement that a post-hype prospect seems to bring teams. The Brewers also include a pretty interesting young pitcher in Galindez, with a very good curveball, in the deal to sweeten the pot a bit. Again, this is very dependent on how the Twins would view Turang and you may have to improve the secondary piece in the trade. Galindez is a guy I'm high on personally, but that doesn't mean the Twins are.

Free Agency

Free Agent Signing #1

RHP Luis Severino (1 year/$15 million)

Severino has really struggled with health for a few years now, so definite risk here. When he is healthy and "on", very few compare to him in terms of their ability. A one year flier might not be enough to get it done, but if I were in his spot, there aren't many better organizations to sign a "prove it" deal with

Free Agent Signing #2

C Tom Murphy (1 year/$10.0 million)

Brewers could use a backup catcher, Murphy is coming off a couple of very strong seasons in that role with the Mariners. If Quero proves to be ready mid-season, or the Brewers are falling out of contention, then Murphy could be a very nice trade piece at the deadline.

Free Agent Signing #3

1B/DH Carlos Santana (1 year/$8.0 million)

Bringing Santana back because I think he's a good vet presence, has a good approach at the plate and should continue to be a decent hitter. I wouldn't want him hitting 3 or 4 anymore, but you could do a lot worse than Santana in the, for example, sixth spot. His defense at first is a plus as well. 

Summary

The trades are iffy, and I totally get if people push back against them. Baseball is so reliant on each organizations assessment of a player, that it is foolish to believe we can really figure out what makes sense in both teams' eyes. For example, the A's thought that Esteury Ruiz was worth William Contreras, Joel Payamps and Justin Yeager. Nobody understood that even at the time of the trade, but they thought it was the best way to go. I feel like the Burnes trade is the most realistic, but if you told me the other two got made, I wouldn't be shocked. So, that's the logic there.

Maybe somewhat surprisingly, Chourio, Black and Gasser (as well as Mayo) all make my OD roster, while Joey Wiemer gets a chance to get every day playing time in Nashville for now.

I'd be expecting Black to play some first, some second and some third on this roster. The DH spot is very unlikely to be filled by the same player on  a regular basis. Yelich, Contreras, Murphy, Santana, etc would all see time in that spot as well.

Despite those four rookies all being relied upon (along with Frelick and a young arm in Woo), I am planning on this team competing in 2024. Think there's a good blend of youth and experience on this roster.

The bullpen does not have much "shuttle" flexibility due to a lack of optionable arms, but neither did the 2023 version and they made it work just fine. There are bound to be injuries and other circumstances allowing some of the optionable pitchers to make appearances throughout the season.

Aaron Ashby's ability to recover from his injury could swing some decisions this offseason as well. Healthy Ashby has some of the best stuff of any lefty in baseball. But as we know, shoulder injuries are very tough on pitchers.

Last thing, even if this team were to struggle to contend, they would have teams knocking down the door to make deals with them at the deadline, with guys like Adames, Murphy, Polanco, Santana, etc. which would hopefully mean 2024 would be the only down year before a bounce back in 2025.

• C: William Contreras ($0.77M)
• 1B: Carlos Santana ($8.0M)
• 2B: Jorge Polanco ($10.50M)
• 3B: Coby Mayo ($0.77M)
• SS: Willy Adames ($12.40M)
• LF: Christian Yelich ($26.00M)
• CF: Jackson Chourio ($0.77M)
• RF: Sal Frelick ($0.77M)
• DH: Tyler Black ($0.77M)
• Bench OF: Tyrone Taylor ($1.70M)
• Utility: Jake Bauers ($1.70M)
• Utility: Andruw Monasterio ($0.77M)
• Backup C: Tom Murphy ($10.00M)
• SP1: Freddy Peralta ($5.50M)
• SP2: Luis Severino ($15.00M)
• SP3: Bryan Woo ($0.77M)
• SP4: Robert Gasser ($0.77M)
• SP5: Adrian Houser ($5.60M)
• CL: Devin Williams ($6.50M)
• RP: Abner Uribe ($0.77M)
• RP: Hoby Milner ($1.70M)
• RP: Bryse Wilson ($1.30M)
• RP: Joel Payamps ($1.70M)
• RP: Trevor Megill ($0.77M)
• RP: Elvis Peguero ($0.77M)
• RP: Colin Rea ($3.50M)

Payroll is 14.59% under budget

[TURBO]

Not a chance the Brewers sign a back-up catcher for 10 million.  Nope, not going to happen, and it shouldn't...

[Outlander]

I do wonder what kind of market Murphy has as he has been productive but in very limited playing time and always gets hurt. He would be a good target but I'm sure he will try to cash in during perhaps his only chance and require a multi year deal.

[Spencer Michaelis]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

Not a chance the Brewers sign a back-up catcher for 10 million.  Nope, not going to happen, and it shouldn't...

Yeah, tbh I decided to sign Murphy before I considered what the contract would actually be, and I have no idea if it would actually be around $10 mil. I couldn't find any predictions for his deal. I decided to go on the high end. That said, I do think there's a ton of value to having a good backup catcher and if funds aren't being allocated elsewhere, I have zero issue with solidifying that spot on a one year deal of any type. My guess as to what they will actually do is to simply bring Caratini back at this point. Especially with it looking like they're going to keep Burnes.

[SF70]

19 hours ago, Smichaelis9 said:

Trade #1

BAL Acquires: RHP Corbin Burnes

MIL Acquires: 3B/1B Coby Mayo, OF Dylan Beavers, RHP Trace Bright

I believe the Brewers can trade Burnes and still be competitive in 2024. That's the aim of this trade. The Orioles receive the frontline starter they were missing in the playoffs this past season (though they will need to be convinced Burnes is that type of guy in the bigger moments).

The Brewers acquire one of their starting corner infielders for 2024 in Mayo. Beavers was a guy the Brewers liked a lot in the draft a year and a half ago, and Bright has some really good stuff, but middling command at the moment. Someone who could impact the MLB rotation by 2025 with an uptick in the command, or become a helpful pen arm even if the command doesn't improve much.

Trade #2

SEA Acquires: OF Garrett Mitchell, SS Freddy Zamora

MIL Acquires: RHP Bryan Woo

Both teams trade a strength for a relative weakness. The Brewers acquire a very talented young starter that could be part of the next era for this team. They are lacking some upper level pitching talent at the moment, especially in terms of sure-fire starters. Woo would really help fill that void that Woodruff and Burnes would be leaving behind.

The Mariners acquire an outfielder that could form an incredible defensive outfield with J-Rod, and he does have a lot of interesting offensive qualities. This would obviously rely on the Mariners being enamored with Mitchell's tools, and it's hard to know how he's valued league wide. If they're on the higher side of the Mitchell evaluation, then they are likely interested in this type of deal. If they're on the lower side, they would likely decline without a second thought. Idk, I'm having fun here so I'll lean toward a shot of it being accepted.

Trade #3

MIN Acquires: 2B/SS Brice Turang, RHP Yorman Galindez

MIL Acquires: 2B Jorge Polanco

Polanco adds some much needed power to the lineup, and does it at one of the worst offensive spots for the Brewers in 2023. For Minnesota, they're looking to shed some salary and Polanco is a clear candidate for that, so the return will likely need to be solid, but not spectacular. Polanco does have a team option for 2025 as well.

Turang gives them a very solid defensive floor and at least a semi-interesting bat to work with to go along with some of the excitement that a post-hype prospect seems to bring teams. The Brewers also include a pretty interesting young pitcher in Galindez, with a very good curveball, in the deal to sweeten the pot a bit. Again, this is very dependent on how the Twins would view Turang and you may have to improve the secondary piece in the trade. Galindez is a guy I'm high on personally, but that doesn't mean the Twins are.

Free Agency

Free Agent Signing #1

RHP Luis Severino (1 year/$15 million)

Severino has really struggled with health for a few years now, so definite risk here. When he is healthy and "on", very few compare to him in terms of their ability. A one year flier might not be enough to get it done, but if I were in his spot, there aren't many better organizations to sign a "prove it" deal with

Free Agent Signing #2

C Tom Murphy (1 year/$10.0 million)

Brewers could use a backup catcher, Murphy is coming off a couple of very strong seasons in that role with the Mariners. If Quero proves to be ready mid-season, or the Brewers are falling out of contention, then Murphy could be a very nice trade piece at the deadline.

Free Agent Signing #3

1B/DH Carlos Santana (1 year/$8.0 million)

Bringing Santana back because I think he's a good vet presence, has a good approach at the plate and should continue to be a decent hitter. I wouldn't want him hitting 3 or 4 anymore, but you could do a lot worse than Santana in the, for example, sixth spot. His defense at first is a plus as well. 

Summary

The trades are iffy, and I totally get if people push back against them. Baseball is so reliant on each organizations assessment of a player, that it is foolish to believe we can really figure out what makes sense in both teams' eyes. For example, the A's thought that Esteury Ruiz was worth William Contreras, Joel Payamps and Justin Yeager. Nobody understood that even at the time of the trade, but they thought it was the best way to go. I feel like the Burnes trade is the most realistic, but if you told me the other two got made, I wouldn't be shocked. So, that's the logic there.

Maybe somewhat surprisingly, Chourio, Black and Gasser (as well as Mayo) all make my OD roster, while Joey Wiemer gets a chance to get every day playing time in Nashville for now.

I'd be expecting Black to play some first, some second and some third on this roster. The DH spot is very unlikely to be filled by the same player on  a regular basis. Yelich, Contreras, Murphy, Santana, etc would all see time in that spot as well.

Despite those four rookies all being relied upon (along with Frelick and a young arm in Woo), I am planning on this team competing in 2024. Think there's a good blend of youth and experience on this roster.

The bullpen does not have much "shuttle" flexibility due to a lack of optionable arms, but neither did the 2023 version and they made it work just fine. There are bound to be injuries and other circumstances allowing some of the optionable pitchers to make appearances throughout the season.

Aaron Ashby's ability to recover from his injury could swing some decisions this offseason as well. Healthy Ashby has some of the best stuff of any lefty in baseball. But as we know, shoulder injuries are very tough on pitchers.

Last thing, even if this team were to struggle to contend, they would have teams knocking down the door to make deals with them at the deadline, with guys like Adames, Murphy, Polanco, Santana, etc. which would hopefully mean 2024 would be the only down year before a bounce back in 2025.

• C: William Contreras ($0.77M)
• 1B: Carlos Santana ($8.0M)
• 2B: Jorge Polanco ($10.50M)
• 3B: Coby Mayo ($0.77M)
• SS: Willy Adames ($12.40M)
• LF: Christian Yelich ($26.00M)
• CF: Jackson Chourio ($0.77M)
• RF: Sal Frelick ($0.77M)
• DH: Tyler Black ($0.77M)
• Bench OF: Tyrone Taylor ($1.70M)
• Utility: Jake Bauers ($1.70M)
• Utility: Andruw Monasterio ($0.77M)
• Backup C: Tom Murphy ($10.00M)
• SP1: Freddy Peralta ($5.50M)
• SP2: Luis Severino ($15.00M)
• SP3: Bryan Woo ($0.77M)
• SP4: Robert Gasser ($0.77M)
• SP5: Adrian Houser ($5.60M)
• CL: Devin Williams ($6.50M)
• RP: Abner Uribe ($0.77M)
• RP: Hoby Milner ($1.70M)
• RP: Bryse Wilson ($1.30M)
• RP: Joel Payamps ($1.70M)
• RP: Trevor Megill ($0.77M)
• RP: Elvis Peguero ($0.77M)
• RP: Colin Rea ($3.50M)

Payroll is 14.59% under budget

Love the Mitchell trade for the young starter to replace Burnes, and open-up playing-time on OD for Chourio. 

Like the Burnes trade to Baltimore for Mayo-Beavers-Bright. Elias seems like a GM who would want more than 1 year of control on anyone but he does have ridiculous IF depth organizationally and OF’s higher on the pecking order than Beavers so maybe this is one he just can’t say no too. Mayo is the exact type of player if I’m trading Burnes I want back — a player that can help the big-club early in the ‘24 season. I also might not make this trade unless I make the Woo trade as well, getting a rotational starter to replace Burnes in ‘24. 

Don’t like the Polanco-Turang trade. Hate Polano’s defense anywhere on the IF. Don’t want to trade Turang this early in his development. Bringing in Dunn gives me backup for if Turang comes into camp rail-thin again. Something tells me he’s been working-out like a man possessed this offseason to get stronger in an attempt to impact the baseball a little more and make adjustments in the box.

Love the Severino & Santana signings.

Nice job with the roster you put together. Traded Burnes without making the ‘24 team worse, which isn’t an easy thing to do, and the trades are to teams who realistically might actually want to make those trades.

[Spencer Michaelis]

7 hours ago, SF70 said:

Love the Mitchell trade for the young starter to replace Burnes, and open-up playing-time on OD for Chourio. 

Like the Burnes trade to Baltimore for Mayo-Beavers-Bright. Elias seems like a GM who would want more than 1 year of control on anyone but he does have ridiculous IF depth organizationally and OF’s higher on the pecking order than Beavers so maybe this is one he just can’t say no too. Mayo is the exact type of player if I’m trading Burnes I want back — a player that can help the big-club early in the ‘24 season. I also might not make this trade unless I make the Woo trade as well, getting a rotational starter to replace Burnes in ‘24. 

Don’t like the Polanco-Turang trade. Hate Polano’s defense anywhere on the IF. Don’t want to trade Turang this early in his development. Bringing in Dunn gives me backup for if Turang comes into camp rail-thin again. Something tells me he’s been working-out like a man possessed this offseason to get stronger in an attempt to impact the baseball a little more and make adjustments in the box.

Love the Severino & Santana signings.

Nice job with the roster you put together. Traded Burnes without making the ‘24 team worse, which isn’t an easy thing to do, and the trades are to teams who realistically might actually want to make those trades.

Appreciate that! I definitely get where you're coming from on the Turang trade. I have always been a bit lower on him, so didn't feel too bad about that, but I definitely get it.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I guess my main issue is this leaves them dangerously thin at short both this year and next unless Brown takes a big leap forward this summer.

[Austin Tatious]

Spencer is one of the most astute and rising Brewer observers out there so this was an interesting read.  The trades were very clever.  I would hate to trade Mitchell but the return would be worth it.   I can’t see the Murphy free agent deal though.  

Regarding Turang I still think he can be a .260 hitter with plus defense and base running.  That equates to a quality player.  People are down on him but it’s the rare player who cones in to MLB and doesn’t need a big adjustment.  Look at Freddy, Burnes and Woody.  All took time and struggled initially.   As CC says, no jump in level is more difficult than going into MLB.   There’s value with Turang as he has time to adjust.  That doesn’t mean we don’t trade him as Spencer suggests.  If he does come back and he sticks at .220 next year then maybe the upside won’t materialize.

Personally I hope we re-sign Adames at a rate commensurate with a guy who has two straight years of struggling with his hit tool and who isn’t a top of the order bat.  I still think he can be a core player at the right price.    If we don’t bring him back, as most people seem to expect, I suspect Turang is back.  But I do think we make a couple of surprising, if not jarring, moves this offseason.  

[Spencer Michaelis]

On 11/22/2023 at 8:58 PM, Austin Tatious said:

Spencer is one of the most astute and rising Brewer observers out there so this was an interesting read.  The trades were very clever.  I would hate to trade Mitchell but the return would be worth it.   I can’t see the Murphy free agent deal though.  

Regarding Turang I still think he can be a .260 hitter with plus defense and base running.  That equates to a quality player.  People are down on him but it’s the rare player who cones in to MLB and doesn’t need a big adjustment.  Look at Freddy, Burnes and Woody.  All took time and struggled initially.   As CC says, no jump in level is more difficult than going into MLB.   There’s value with Turang as he has time to adjust.  That doesn’t mean we don’t trade him as Spencer suggests.  If he does come back and he sticks at .220 next year then maybe the upside won’t materialize.

Personally I hope we re-sign Adames at a rate commensurate with a guy who has two straight years of struggling with his hit tool and who isn’t a top of the order bat.  I still think he can be a core player at the right price.    If we don’t bring him back, as most people seem to expect, I suspect Turang is back.  But I do think we make a couple of surprising, if not jarring, moves this offseason.  

Appreciate you taking the time to read, the thoughts and the compliment! The Murphy deal is probably higher than it would actually take, I just couldn't find any predictions for him and since I had plenty of space in my "budget" I definitely went on the higher end. I do think there's a lot more value to a good backup catcher though, more than most. Imo, it's the most important non-pitching position to have good depth at.

As for Turang, I think I'd be a lot more surprised if he does hit, unfortunately. He was essentially a league average hitter from High-A to Triple-A in his final three full minor league seasons (wRC+ of 88, 99 and 108). I think if he can be a league average hitter at MLB that he would definitely have a lot of value at 2B. I'm just not super sold on it. I would absolutely love to be wrong. 

I think Adames is going to be able to fetch a lot more money than we may hope. The shortstop market is so bare this year and doesn't appear to be much better next year. But if an extension is possible at a reasonable rate, I am with you in saying I would love to see it.

[Spencer Michaelis]

On 11/22/2023 at 6:20 PM, CheeseheadInQC said:

I guess my main issue is this leaves them dangerously thin at short both this year and next unless Brown takes a big leap forward this summer.

I think the difference in opinion is that I don't have hardly any confidence in Turang moving forward. There were always a ton of red flags with his bat and I'm not convinced the defense will play up as much at short as it does at second. If he did get traded and Adames ended up leaving or being traded as well, I think you could at least find someone who would bring as much value as Turang at short without much of a struggle. At least to hold you over until hopefully one of the lower level guys or EBJ can separate themselves.