Olney: 'Unclear' Whether Brewers Will Trade Corbin Burnes or Willy Adames

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

16 hours ago, wallus said:

I would love to see the stats of the season that he was an elite offensive performer at shortstop. Unless you are going to tell me elite doesn't mean top 3 and then I would question that heavily.

Adames put up an .886 OPS after coming over from Tampa in 2021. 20 HRs and 58 RBIs in 365 ABs. If you are going to tell me that isn't elite-level production from the SS position, that's what I'd question.

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Adames put up an .886 OPS after coming over from Tampa in 2021. 20 HRs and 58 RBIs in 365 ABs. If you are going to tell me that isn't elite-level production from the SS position, that's what I'd question.

That was 2021.  Compare those numbers to 2022 and 2023.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

8 minutes ago, TURBO said:

That was 2021.  Compare those numbers to 2022 and 2023.

I get that, and previously acknowledged it. My whole point was that Adames has the talent and capability of pumping out elite-level offensive production from the SS position, which his 2021 numbers indicate. That makes makes him a valuable trade commodity. His 2022/23 production dings his trade value for sure (even though the power is still there), but the thought that he wouldn't wouldn't be considered a "premium talent" and bring back a very good trade package sounds ludicrous to me.  

[wallus]

3 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Adames put up an .886 OPS after coming over from Tampa in 2021. 20 HRs and 58 RBIs in 365 ABs. If you are going to tell me that isn't elite-level production from the SS position, that's what I'd question.

Holy cherry picking of at bats. Let me know his full season stats because they counted too.

The only way that would have more credence is if those last 365 ABs were last season.

[CheezWizHed]

22 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm loathe to advocate for rebuilds. I've seen enough of them sputter and fail to realize they're not worth 3+ years of my life waiting for a time that might not come.

But in the case of the 2024 Brewers, I think there's a real chance to rebuild on the fly and remain a marginal contender while simultaneously setting up the team for real contention in 2025 and beyond.

Except we know the "rebuild" is coming.  Woody was the first domino.  Burnes is highly unlikely to be on the Brewers in 2025.  Adames slightly more chance, but also unlikely. 

The question is do you trigger the rebuild with more options by trading both (or even Williams/Peralta if you REALLY want to clean house. Or do we just wait and let them go for compensation picks? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Except we know the "rebuild" is coming.  Woody was the first domino.  Burnes is highly unlikely to be on the Brewers in 2025.  Adames slightly more chance, but also unlikely. 

The question is do you trigger the rebuild with more options by trading both (or even Williams/Peralta if you REALLY want to clean house. Or do we just wait and let them go for compensation picks? 

Yeah, that's the question. Most or all of the players are leaving anyway. So how much does the team want to push contention at the sacrifice of a quicker retool? With so many things going wrong to start the offseason (Woody, Counsell), I think it's prudent to retool now to the detriment of the 2024 season.

[CheezWizHed]

Yeah, that is where I've been since Woody got hurt.  I had hopes we could keep him... 😟

[wibadgers23]

32 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Except we know the "rebuild" is coming.  Woody was the first domino.  Burnes is highly unlikely to be on the Brewers in 2025.  Adames slightly more chance, but also unlikely. 

The question is do you trigger the rebuild with more options by trading both (or even Williams/Peralta if you REALLY want to clean house. Or do we just wait and let them go for compensation picks? 

Yeah I think it’s pretty obvious what they need to do this offseason but I have this sinking feeling that they’ll hold onto everyone and try to make one last run in 2024 and just collect the draft picks.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

1 hour ago, wallus said:

Holy cherry picking of at bats. Let me know his full season stats because they counted too.

The only way that would have more credence is if those last 365 ABs were last season.

It isn't like I'm arguing he's elite because he led the team in doubles on August Tuesdays. A 365 AB sample is pretty sizable. And those are his numbers from his Brewer debut through the rest of 2021. Even when combined with the paltry numbers he had as a Ray prior to the deal, you're still talking about an .818 OPS and 25 HRs. All I'm saying is that he has put up elite-level SS numbers over a solid sample size, which proves that the ability to do that is there.

[CheezWizHed]

43 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Yeah I think it’s pretty obvious what they need to do this offseason but I have this sinking feeling that they’ll hold onto everyone and try to make one last run in 2024 and just collect the draft picks.

Not to mention that those 2025 draft picks won't reach the majors until Wiemer, Frelick, and Mitchel are all done with arbitration... Would be nice to get a return that impacts the team in the next 2-3 years instead of 5-7. 

[TURBO]

37 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

It isn't like I'm arguing he's elite because he led the team in doubles on August Tuesdays. A 365 AB sample is pretty sizable. And those are his numbers from his Brewer debut through the rest of 2021. Even when combined with the paltry numbers he had as a Ray prior to the deal, you're still talking about an .818 OPS and 25 HRs. All I'm saying is that he has put up elite-level SS numbers over a solid sample size, which proves that the ability to do that is there.

If we are being honest, he had a GREAT 365 ABs in 2021.  Since then, he has not been that guy with the bat.  You can't just excuse 2 full seasons after that hot Brewers start, you just can't...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

1 minute ago, TURBO said:

If we are being honest, he had a GREAT 365 ABs in 2021.  Since then, he has not been that guy with the bat.  You can't just excuse 2 full seasons after that hot Brewers start, you just can't...

Who said I was excusing them? He was decent in 2022, and underperformed last year. No denying that. Again, I'm just saying the ability is there, because it's been done.  I'm not saying that he is elite right now. Just that he has that kind of talent.

[wibadgers23]

I think we can all agree that Adames is by no means a world beater but can hit for power and is really good defensively. Teams will pay a premium for shortstops with those kinds of tools.

[wallus]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

 Even when combined with the paltry numbers he had as a Ray prior to the deal, you're still talking about an .818 OPS and 25 HRs. All I'm saying is that he has put up elite-level SS numbers over a solid sample size, which proves that the ability to do that is there.

Even those numbers are not elite for a shortstop..... 

[SF70]

2 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Not to mention that those 2025 draft picks won't reach the majors until Wiemer, Frelick, and Mitchel are all done with arbitration... Would be nice to get a return that impacts the team in the next 2-3 years instead of 5-7. 

They already have prospects that will impact the team in 2-3 years.

Gasser-Chourio-Black in ‘24

Quero-Wilken-EBJ-CRod-Misiorowski in ‘25/‘26.

Henderson-Knoth-Pratt-Bitonti-Lara-Baez-Adams-Boeve in ‘26/‘27. 

The ‘24 & ‘25 draft-class in ‘27-‘29.

The team has a top 5 farm for a reason. The 1 player that absolutely should be traded is Williams because he won’t bring back a pick, and the return for 2 years to the right team could rival what they would get for 1 year of Burnes.

 

 

[CheezWizHed]

15 minutes ago, SF70 said:

They already have prospects that will impact the team in 2-3 years.

Gasser-Chourio-Black in ‘24

Quero-Wilken-EBJ-CRod-Misiorowski in ‘25/‘26.

Henderson-Knoth-Pratt-Bitonti-Lara-Baez-Adams-Boeve in ‘26/‘27. 

The ‘24 & ‘25 draft-class in ‘27-‘29.

The team has a top 5 farm for a reason. The 1 player that absolutely should be traded is Williams because he won’t bring back a pick, and the return for 2 years to the right team could rival what they would get for 1 year of Burnes.

 

 

Good to know we don't need any more prospects for the next 2-3 years then! 😅

For a shallow-pockets team like the Brewers, we need a high volume of low cost players in order to compete.  Obviously not all prospects will succeed in the majors anyway.  Of the 13 you listed for '25-'27, I'd wager only 3-5 producing more than 2.0 career WAR. 

I personally believe strongly that Frelick, Chourio, Black, MItchell, maybe Wiemer are a core to build around.  Thus the interest in getting more prospects that impact '24-'28 instead of draft picks that start impacting '29+ when those players I listed start reaching FA. 

[SF70]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

Good to know we don't need any more prospects for the next 2-3 years then! 😅

For a shallow-pockets team like the Brewers, we need a high volume of low cost players in order to compete.  Obviously not all prospects will succeed in the majors anyway.  Of the 13 you listed for '25-'27, I'd wager only 3-5 producing more than 2.0 career WAR. 

I personally believe strongly that Frelick, Chourio, Black, MItchell, maybe Wiemer are a core to build around.  Thus the interest in getting more prospects that impact '24-'28 instead of draft picks that start impacting '29+ when those players I listed start reaching FA. 

That’s your opinion and that’s fine, mine differs.

Quero-Wilken are studs. CRod is a backend starter. Misiorowski a #2-3 or closer. EBJ a wild card. The rest are too far away to comment on other than Pratt is also a stud.

This teams farm is tremendously deep, especially positionally, and even more so stacked with high-end teenage talent that should hit MKE in ‘27/‘28, which happens to coincide with the last couple years of arby with Mitchell-Frelick-Wiemer-Black. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

6 hours ago, TURBO said:

If we are being honest, he had a GREAT 365 ABs in 2021.  Since then, he has not been that guy with the bat.  You can't just excuse 2 full seasons after that hot Brewers start, you just can't...

Those 365 ABs are the outlier for his career, to be honest.

Adames is a good player, but one I want no part of extending at the market rate for veteran Shortstops who have some power.  If they can get a decent prospect package in return I wouldn't mind trading him this offseason and eliminate the risk of giving a QO to him coming off another down year next offseason and then seeing him accept it.

[Fear The Chorizo]

8 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, that's the question. Most or all of the players are leaving anyway. So how much does the team want to push contention at the sacrifice of a quicker retool? With so many things going wrong to start the offseason (Woody, Counsell), I think it's prudent to retool now to the detriment of the 2024 season.

Woody got injured during last season, and I'd argue the Brewers paying 8 million a season for any manager would be a bad idea.

 

I don't think the brewer front office shares the same retool plan you do, at least right at this moment.  If Byrnes is dealt, then yes it's a retool...but dealing Adames now wouldn't necessarily signal that they plan to take a step back in 2024.

[CheezWizHed]

16 hours ago, SF70 said:

That’s your opinion and that’s fine, mine differs.

Quero-Wilken are studs. CRod is a backend starter. Misiorowski a #2-3 or closer. EBJ a wild card. The rest are too far away to comment on other than Pratt is also a stud.

This teams farm is tremendously deep, especially positionally, and even more so stacked with high-end teenage talent that should hit MKE in ‘27/‘28, which happens to coincide with the last couple years of arby with Mitchell-Frelick-Wiemer-Black. 

It isn't so much my opinion of our players, but the statistical reality of prospects.  Some will get succeed.  Some will get hurt.  Some simply won't make it. 

But even if you are right with Quero, Wilken, CRod, Mis, and EBJ... is that enough for a World Series?  Does that justify in your mind to simply let Burnes and Adames walk and take comp picks that (at best) will hit the majors in '29-30?

If we have such good depth (which I agree with), why not bolster it with 3-5 more similar players to increase our WS chances?  Push all the chips in at the same time.

[brewcrewdue80]

3 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

It isn't so much my opinion of our players, but the statistical reality of prospects.  Some will get succeed.  Some will get hurt.  Some simply won't make it. 

But even if you are right with Quero, Wilken, CRod, Mis, and EBJ... is that enough for a World Series?  Does that justify in your mind to simply let Burnes and Adames walk and take comp picks that (at best) will hit the majors in '29-30?

You're tooling those players with Chourio-Contreras-Frelick-Mitchell-Wiemer-Black-Turang-Peralta-Ashby-Uribe closer.  And if Milw gets extra picks what's keeping them from setting up a deal where they add 1 of the top 8 ranked in draft who falls to them who fast tracks with 2 seasons addition to team? Or seeing another baby-Chourio meteoric rise come from the recent international signings?  And of course a FA signing or 2?

[brewcrewdue80]

I mentioned something in the Chourio thread about Burnes and where any trade gets complicated with him.

Brewers and Burnes need to come to a contract for 2024 in order to set his value in ask from teams.  The hem-haw in Olyney holding on to Burnes til trade deadline may be this fact. That Burnes will again take this years salary decision to Arbitration. He lost as we know and to me, he will submit a larger number as a make up for what he lost in 2023. The committee can't side with Milwaukee twice right?

So the thinking is this isn't a 3M gap but a 5+mil gap between what Milw is pushed from the owners side and history vs. what Burnes will ask for.  That result directly impacts his surplus value and won't be decided til end of March? Early April?  A time when teams have set their Opening Day payroll and rosters.  

In the case of a Dodgers trade 5mil surplus value is asking and taking off the return(via btv) 2021 1st rd selection Maddux Bruns. You also gotta add in luxury tax implications towards the teams that are over the line what that result means to them.  If a trade happens, ptbnl has to be expected when considering what $$amount Burnes does end up with for 2024.  Just messy without a HR no doubt trade offer from another team to see a trade happening until Burnes salary is set for 2024.

[wibadgers23]

Per Jon Morosi, the Angels, Dodgers, Giants and Padres are “enamored” with Burnes. He expects Burnes to be moved this offseason.

[wallus]

13 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Per Jon Morosi, the Angels, Dodgers, Giants and Padres are “enamored” with Burnes. He expects Burnes to be moved this offseason.

A little interdivision bidding war would be great here.

[Brewcrew82]

3 hours ago, wibadgers23 said:

Per Jon Morosi, the Angels, Dodgers, Giants and Padres are “enamored” with Burnes. He expects Burnes to be moved this offseason.

Lol Angels are not getting Burnes.