Brewers and Chourio: Heyman reports 8 years, $80 million + 2 club option years

[SF70]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Acuna was 21 when he inked his ~100 Million extension after playing in just 1 MLB season as a 20 yr old.  I think somewhere between that and Carrol's extension is likely what the Brewers are hoping for, both in terms of overall dollars and years.  

Having zero MLB time to this point is what makes things interesting, a potential 10 year deal that buys out 4 years of free agency with some variety of club and player/mutual options would lead to Chourio still being just 30 and in line for another massive contract...then again, unfortunate injuries or turning into a pumpkin at the MLB level could also happen and the Brewers would be on the hook for 9 plus figures.  Gotta think there would be some sort of club option about halfway through the contract that would kick in an initial set of escalators to pay Chourio more than what he'd earn in arbitration sooner, and then perhaps a player option towards the back year or two of a 10yr extension that could allow Chourio to opt out if his onfield production is grossly underpaid close to a decade from now.

No player options.

8 guaranteed years with 2 team options. This deal needs to give the team all of his prime years, while still letting him hit FA at 30 years of age.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I'll guess 9 years, $125 million

[igor67]

There is definitely some interesting risks for both parties in this type of deal. From the player side Woodruff is a good example of someone who might suddenly be wishing they had already cashed in for a 'discount'.

[torts]

C'mon make it happen!  If they sign him I hope they do deal burnes just to really flummox the fanbase 😂😂😂

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

No player options.

8 guaranteed years with 2 team options. This deal needs to give the team all of his prime years, while still letting him hit FA at 30 years of age.

In a perfect world from the organizations perspective, sure...but I think they can offset some of the catastrophic risk a deal like this would entail if they included a mutual option near the end of a 10 yr deal.  Give the player incentive to outperform the contract in his prime to justify an opt-out 1 season early, then if he proves to be an all world player you've got 9 seasons to work out an extension.

If no player options, then those free agent buyout years will have little to no discount baked into the contract, and those team option years will need to be a much higher overall cost.

[brewcrewdue80]

Chourio has Acuna comps for a future.  Risks?  Toss all that out the window. Any extra years gained in team control is an absolute win for the franchise. Hell give him 12yrs 200Mil. Try to understand what 40/50 seasons are going to be like on lockdown.

[BrewerFan]

4 hours ago, brewers888 said:

This should be at least a 10 yr deal if it happens and is exactly the type of bold move this team needs to make.

It really wouldn't make sense for it to be much less. I guess the ideal contract would be 8 years with 4 team options, but unlikely he'd agree to that. 

10 years, 2 option years. 150M GTD would be on the high end. 10/100 would be the sweet spot IMO. 

[SeaBass]

Unless the Brewers are going to start spending like the Padres year in and year out I absolutely hate the very idea of this. Way too much risk of injury or non-performance. The Brewers already have 6 years of control that don't start until he makes the big league club, there's no reason to hurry unless they're getting a fantastic deal in their favor. They've learned nothing from the Yelich contract. Nothing prevents them from extending him at literally any other time once he hits the big leagues.

I feel like this will be an unpopular opinion but life is unpredictable and I think that burns the team in so many more ways than it does the player in a situation like this. There is literally zero harm in playing the long game. Maybe the final year and dollar numbers change my mind once or if this happens but for now I'm not for it.

[BrewerFan]

4 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Maybe, but not a lock.  Chourio, Frelick, Mitchell, Yelich, Wiemer, and Taylor.  Wiemer could easily be at AAA per the end of last season.  Yelich could be DHing a lot.  Then you'd have 4 OFers - a 5th with Yelich. 

It wouldn't surprise me to see Mitchell or TT be traded, but I don't see it as necessary either. 

I wouldn't feel the need to do anything in the OF...other than give Chourio almost every start. 

Preferably they put Frelick in LF to start most games(maybe sit him on occasion vs tough lefties) and in RF you platoon Mitchell/Wiemer or start Wiemer in AAA. But an OF combination with any of the 4 young guys and Taylor gives you probably the best OF defense in the game.

I imagine Yelich will still get thrown out in LF for another year, but it'd really make more sense to try and DH him or play him at 1B in camp, see if he can still play there at a high enough level. Just start the transition. 

We saw the impact Frelick made without being an offensive juggernaut, the same with Wiemer and Mitchell. Their speed and defense energize a team. If they just start to hit like they're expected, it's going to be an awesome OF. 

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, SeaBass said:

Unless the Brewers are going to start spending like the Padres year in and year out I absolutely hate the very idea of this. Way too much risk of injury or non-performance. The Brewers already have 6 years of control that don't start until he makes the big league club, there's no reason to hurry unless they're getting a fantastic deal in their favor. They've learned nothing from the Yelich contract. Nothing prevents them from extending him at literally any other time once he hits the big leagues.

I feel like this will be an unpopular opinion but life is unpredictable and I think that burns the team in so many more ways than it does the player in a situation like this. There is literally zero harm in playing the long game. Maybe the final year and dollar numbers change my mind once or if this happens but for now I'm not for it.

Might change your mind in 5 years when we're looking at trading a 25 year old superstar because we can't afford a $400 million+ contract. Look at how much Julio Rodriguez got and he wasn't even a year into his big league career....That's why the Brewers want to get this done sooner than later. 

A risk a team like the Brewers needs to take if they want to retain a talent like this for the long-term.

[BrewerFan]

5 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Might change your mind in 5 years when we're looking at trading a 25 year old superstar because we can't afford a $400 million+ contract. Look at how much Julio Rodriguez got and he wasn't even a year into his big league career....That's why the Brewers want to get this done sooner than later. 

A risk a team like the Brewers needs to take if they want to retain a talent like this for the long-term.

Right, OR just imagine we had Ronald Acuna Jr. We'd be looking at trading him without this type of deal, THIS off-season. How miserable would that be?

Your fan base would be complaining you're just a minor league team for the big market teams. And maybe Chourio doesn't agree, but I think you have more to lose by NOT signing him than vice versa. 

[rickh150]

We can’t play Hiura to DH our offensively challenged lineup when he hits beyond well in AAA (and more than adequate in majors the previous year), but we are willing to give what..70 to 100 million for a player who hasn’t hit MLB pitching? Why not have him play in MLB, oh I don’t know, a few months before talking about this? And great timing… get 100s of millions from STATE/COUNTY/CITY and IMMEDIATELY give it away to minor league prospect.

Pump the brakes, Brewers….way too risky to do this without seeing him hit daily at MLB level against 95-96 MPH pitching with movement nightly.  If he is Good or great, whatever… could do this deal a year or two from now without costing us much. Close to crazy to do this deal now.

[Brewcrew82]

12 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

We can’t play Hiura to DH our offensively challenged lineup when he hits beyond well in AAA (and more than adequate in majors the previous year), but we are willing to give what..70 to 100 million for a player who hasn’t hit MLB pitching? Why not have him play in MLB, oh I don’t know, a few months before talking about this? And great timing… get 100s of millions from STATE/COUNTY/CITY and IMMEDIATELY give it away to minor league prospect.

Pump the brakes, Brewers….way too risky to do this without seeing him hit daily at MLB level against 95-96 MPH pitching with movement nightly.  If he is Good or great, whatever… could do this deal a year or two from now without costing us much. Close to crazy to do this deal now.

You're kidding yourself if you think you could do this a year or two from now and it wouldn't cost much. See Rodriguez, Julio.

Also, love how you managed to bring Hiura into this conversation. 

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, rickh150 said:

We can’t play Hiura to DH our offensively challenged lineup when he hits beyond well in AAA (and more than adequate in majors the previous year), but we are willing to give what..70 to 100 million for a player who hasn’t hit MLB pitching? Why not have him play in MLB, oh I don’t know, a few months before talking about this? And great timing… get 100s of millions from STATE/COUNTY/CITY and IMMEDIATELY give it away to minor league prospect.

Pump the brakes, Brewers….way too risky to do this without seeing him hit daily at MLB level against 95-96 MPH pitching with movement nightly.  If he is Good or great, whatever… could do this deal a year or two from now without costing us much. Close to crazy to do this deal now.

A-Please stop with the Hiura stuff. He's not part of the organization. 

B-The State fulfilling their duties as the landlord has NOTHING to do with how the Brewers allocate payroll. I don't go and spend money to fix the plumbing and put a new roof on an apartment and then browbeat the tenants because they buy a flat-screen TV. One is MY responsibility, the other is entirely their business. 

C-"could do this a year or two from now without costing us much?"

That's just not accurate. 

If you do this now, you can bring him up and have him spend the entire year in the league, possibly earning another draft pick. Can't do that if you're doing the service time manipulation.

But more importantly, if he has two big seasons, a top 3 ROY-type season, and then just a good but not great, season as a 21-year-old, it probably costs another hundred million to extend him. 

We just saw the Nationals offer Soto nearly 400M on a 10-year deal after waiting a couple of years and he turned it down. So yeah, it could VERY easily cost us to wait. Likely the opportunity to extend him altogether as you can't sign a player like this to a fair market deal, you have to extend them early. 

 

I'm baffled that people are against this. 

[JefferyLeonard]

That figures, why am I not surprised the Brewers still don't "get it"? You have plenty of time to not only control Churio, but to give him an extension. If Mark A is going to be shelling out piles of money for a long period of time, then for god sakes use it on a Free agent. No need to use it on Churio right now. Here's the part they don't seem to "get". You can shell out piles of money and get a stud FA bat AND still have Churio. It's not like he's leaving anytime soon. 

[SeaBass]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Might change your mind in 5 years when we're looking at trading a 25 year old superstar because we can't afford a $400 million+ contract. Look at how much Julio Rodriguez got and he wasn't even a year into his big league career....That's why the Brewers want to get this done sooner than later. 

A risk a team like the Brewers needs to take if they want to retain a talent like this for the long-term.

Easy to say. Just like it's easy for me to say there are many scenarios that derail those good feelings in a real hurry that don't even include him just not performing up to expectations.

You're going to try to scare me with we get a legit superstar for 6 years and get sad if he leaves for more money? Deal, I'll take it. Where do I sign up for exactly that? It's ridiculous to suggest if this doesn't happen we're losing out on something.

Why can't they sign him after year one in the bigs, or year two, etc. They HAVE to sign him now? No, they really don't.

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, SeaBass said:

Easy to say. Just like it's easy for me to say there are many scenarios that derail those good feelings in a real hurry that don't even include him just not performing up to expectations.

You're going to try to scare me with we get a legit superstar for 6 years and get sad if he leaves for more money? Deal, I'll take it. Where do I sign up for exactly that? It's ridiculous to suggest if this doesn't happen we're losing out on something.

Why can't they sign him after year one in the bigs, or year two, etc. They HAVE to sign him now? No, they really don't.

They don't have to but then instead of $100 million you're potentially looking at $300 million like Julio Rodriguez. The Brewers have never come close to that kind of deal in their history.

[SeaBass]

47 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

You're kidding yourself if you think you could do this a year or two from now and it wouldn't cost much. See Rodriguez, Julio.

Also, love how you managed to bring Hiura into this conversation. 

Nevermind the fact every poster on this board would have celebrated like they won the lottery if the Brewers had signed Hiura to exactly what you want them to sign Chourio to right now after his first month in the bigs. Hiura is absolutely relevant to this conversation.

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, SeaBass said:

Nevermind the fact every poster on this board would have celebrated like they won the lottery if the Brewers had signed Hiura to exactly what you want them to sign Chourio to right now after his first month in the bigs. Hiura is absolutely relevant to this conversation.

No he's not. Hiura is not comparable to Chourio as a prospect whatsoever. 

[SeaBass]

3 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

They don't have to but then instead of $100 million you're potentially looking at $300 million like Julio Rodriguez. The Brewers have never come close to that kind of deal in their history.

And? If you're trying to show me a downside I'm not seeing it.

[SeaBass]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

No he's not. Hiura is not comparable to Chourio as a prospect whatsoever. 

Because you know how he ended up. Keep sending me these alley oops.

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, SeaBass said:

Because you know how he ended up. Keep sending me these alley oops.

Except it has nothing to do with how he ended up...No alley ooping necessary.

Julio Rodriguez, Ronald Acuna Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., etc. Those are the players who have accomplished what Chourio has at his age. Hiura was at UC-Irvine at 19. 

[Brewcrew82]

10 minutes ago, SeaBass said:

And? If you're trying to show me a downside I'm not seeing it.

They can't pay that? Which means you're trading a (potential) superstar at 25 like the Nats had to do with Soto. And less chances at a WS....

[brewcrewdue80]

 ThenCorbin Carroll has basically 9/135M signed 4yrs older than Chourio today. 28+M paid a yr those last 3 FA bought seasons.  I'd fully expect 10yrs doing this. So you're adding another 28M comparable paid season only to someone 3-4 years younger during the time making that amount than Carroll. I'd think the QO 10yrs from now approaches 28M.  You're not buying the 40/50 player for 28M then. You let Chourio take MLB time seeing the field that's what it'll look like on the payroll when you extend then 28+M vs signing him now and making that number be 20M or less because you paid him 7-10M in what would be preArby years and he hadn't taken the ML field yet. He will be must watch TV bringing in immense revenue. Think Mike Trout if you must if Acuna doesn't excite you. That's the media billboard affect that's coming along when he plays out this contract.

[MVP2110]

Comparing Chourio to any Brewers prospect in recent memory is disingenuous. Chourio is a legitimate top 3 prospect in MLB and has done things similar to guys like Acuna, Soto, Tatis in the minors at an incredibly young age. Of course there is risk involved, nobody is doubting that. But the reward on a Chourio extension is worth the risk