Brewers and Chourio: Heyman reports 8 years, $80 million + 2 club option years

[tmwiese55]

In regards to Huira comp or really any other prospect they've  had is the age difference.  A normal guy comes up in the age 22/23 area.  You control them until they're 30ish.  Which is right when you get into the decline issues and if you really want to be paying them big money.   This guy seems like he'll be up at age 20, so he could leave at 27/28ish or you're trading him at 25/26 in what should be prime window.     Normal aged guys who get traded at 29/30ish (though ideally you'd want 1-2 more years usually) you're likely selling them right before they fall off and or the cost/reward balance flips in the wrong direction.   Just saying its a bit different to be trading right at heart of prime rather than at the end. 

In addition, from the players perspective it make sense too.  If the normal guy signs something like this that gets him to age 32/33 he might be too old for a big payday.  Chouria can sign this and still hit FA at 29/30 for another big payday.

 

[BrewerFan]

8 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Tatis, Jr signed that massive 14 yr, ~$350M contract when he was a mid 900s OPS offensive player as a 21 yr old - then he got injured and caught taking PEDs, missing all of 2022.  Then in 2023 he was magically an upper 700s OPS offensive player.  Still really good, but not the type of production teams would fall all over themselves handing out lifetime contracts to.

Guessing the Rays want takebacks on what's left of that Wander Franco contract at this point, too.

 

I think the Rays are probably fine with the decision. They made a Baseball decision that was the right one to make. If Franco has done what he's accused of, he'll be suspended and they'll be able to void that contract. 

And the Tatis Jr deal was after he'd proven he was a star SS...and I think it's Lazy to make the claim he "magically" turned into an upper 700s OPS player, inferring he was only hitting due to PEDs. He had a shoulder injury and seems likely that's why he took the PEDs.

Quote

I'm hopeful any sort of Chourio deal would have something structured in it that voids significant longterm financial commitment in the event of off the field issues/incidents like PEDs, felonies/legal problems, significant injury incurred with non-baseball activities, etc.

All these contracts have morality clauses in them.

 

I can't imagine the Brewers would look at the Wander Franco situation, an exceptionally rare circumstance, and factor that in.

[BrewerFan]

8 hours ago, edfunderburk said:

I want to see Yelich as a DH or 1B … ASAP!

They've GOTTA be considering it. The upside of being able to throw out 5 guys who can play elite CF(and presumably elite LF/RF) is suuuch an upgrade defensively.

It's not as if you just can't get by with Yelich in LF. He's been...good. Solid. But you saw last year how he was moving so much better early on and throwing the ball well and he just kept kinda progressively getting worse as the season went on.

I'd also think Yelich and his range at 1B could be pretty solid. I don't expect him to be even last year Santana level, but he's played 1B before in HS he was a 1B, so he's not completely new to it. Or at least have him play MOST of his games as the LHed side of the platoon at DH. 

You can send Wiemer down, let him figure it out. I'm confident he'll figure it out well enough to be a .240/.330/.500 30/30 type RFer with elite defense, an incredibly valuable player. So I really hope they don't trade him. 

Frelick's defense was even more impressive IMO. The catches he made against the wall, his arm strength(a very underrated part of his game). Mitchell is an elite athlete, probably the one I'd be the most inclined to move off of due to his injury history, but I would want to.

And then the 19-year-old savant. I guess he plays CF. Normally it'd be a no-brainer, but with 3 others, plus Taylor, I don't know that it really matters where they all play. The energy they bring on the bases and with those big catches, those are the types of things that really help you build a winner.

[rickh150]

12 hours ago, edfunderburk said:

Amen … Agree … PLEASE stop referencing Huira or comparing him to Chourio

I agree….Chourio hit .805 in MiLB last year compared to Hiura’s .960. So  right. Not a fair comparison. Winker would be better.

[homer]

8 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

I agree….Chourio hit .805 in MiLB last year compared to Hiura’s .960. So  right. Not a fair comparison. Winker would be better.

one of those players was 27 years old and the other was 19.

[Fear The Chorizo]

22 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

I agree….Chourio hit .805 in MiLB last year compared to Hiura’s .960. So  right. Not a fair comparison. Winker would be better.

I've long been one of Hiura's biggest advocates around here...but count me out on any sort of efforts to compare his status as a prospect first coming up to Chourio.  Hiura/Brinson/Arcia all profiling as top 20 overall prospects at one point or another in their minor league careers, sure....but there's a big difference between being in that pecking order for a snapshot in time before getting called up and being considered the top or one of the top couple prospects overall as a 19 year old kid and then proceeding to tear up the Venezuelan Winter League.

If Chourio is in AAA in 2032, let's compare what his OPS is to what Hiura did last season in Nashville.

[Brewcrew82]

15 minutes ago, homer said:

one of those players was 27 years old and the other was 19.

One also is elite at base running and defense while the other is well below average at both.

[wallus]

Automatic bans for mentioning Hiura. What say you Bfan?

[rickh150]

And what is stopping Chourio from demanding a trade/holding out in year 5 or 6 of a 8-9 year deal for more money or better team?
I don’t see the upside of this like others can…. a couple extra years of team control…maybe? Just let him play a few months or year. The price will more likely go down, unless you think he is ROY candidate.

I think Chourio’s agents are playing off the Brewers desperate need to market anything positive, urging fans to not dwell on CC fiasco or Bernie Brewer being threatened by MA with a gun to his head for more WI public funds. 

Actually, I’m all for a deal like this if it comes at a big discount ala Lucroy or Peralta. The $ numbers were not big and the risk was not huge as both had established themselves already.  

[Brewcrew82]

8 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

And what is stopping Chourio from demanding a trade/holding out in year 5 or 6 of a 8-9 year deal for more money or better team?
I don’t see the upside of this like others can…. a couple extra years of team control…maybe? Just let him play a few months or year. The price will more likely go down, unless you think he is ROY candidate.

I think Chourio’s agents are playing off the Brewers desperate need to market anything positive, urging fans to not dwell on CC fiasco or Bernie Brewer being threatened by MA with a gun to his head for more WI public funds. 

Actually, I’m all for a deal like this if it comes at a big discount ala Lucroy or Peralta. The $ numbers were not big and the risk was not huge as both had established themselves already.  

Again, with the "price going down" nonsense...

He's likely the odds on favorite for NL ROY if he's indeed signed to an extension and brought up on OD.

Demanding a trade/holding out? This isn't the NBA/NFL...

[rickh150]

54 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Again, with the "price going down" nonsense...

He's probably the odds on favorite for NL ROY if he's indeed signed to an extension and brought up on OD. 

Would rather pay about nothing to Chourio for 3 and a half years and the arby for 3 years than paying a guaranteed $100 million(?) for maybe saving $ about a decade from now to a player who might want outta here before then.. Would rather lock up Contreras for 5 years instead.

I believe any small market, big money MLB deal for 9-10 years for any one player isn’t worth the risk, especially one that hasn’t played an inning of MLB ball.  Bad money deals can’t be made up here like in NY or LA.  

Some wanted Arica to sign a crazy big and long contract a while back too with limited experience…said the same then too. If we are a bigger market team, I am with the majority and think the risk is worth it for Chourio, but we are not.

And I find it annoying that all the negatives I get for this conservative $ view are being pointed out by some who did not see this as a great team move, oh just a few days ago. If this was such a great team move, people should have been chattering about this for months. 
For me, it’s more about the financial risk than it is about how good Chourio will be, and that, I believe, is fair.
 

[rickh150]

And I have no confidence in Brewers offensive decision makers when Winker, Adames, and Rowdy hit in lineup order 2-4 half the year. Trusting Brewers brass with pitchers is a lot different than the same with hitters. 

[Brewcrew82]

18 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Would rather pay about nothing to Chourio for 3 and a half years and the arby for 3 years than paying a guaranteed $100 million(?) for maybe saving $ about a decade from now to a player who might want outta here before then.. Would rather lock up Contreras for 5 years instead.

I believe any small market, big money MLB deal for 9-10 years for any one player isn’t worth the risk, especially one that hasn’t played an inning of MLB ball.  Bad money deals can’t be made up here like in NY or LA.  

Some wanted Arica to sign a crazy big and long contract a while back too with limited experience…said the same then too. If we are a bigger market team, I am with the majority and think the risk is worth it for Chourio, but we are not.

And I find it annoying that all the negatives I get for this conservative $ view are being pointed out by some who did not see this as a great team move, oh just a few days ago. If this was such a great team move, people should have been chattering about this for months. 
For me, it’s more about the financial risk than it is about how good Chourio will be, and that, I believe, is fair.
 

People have literally been "chattering" about this for months....

 

[rickh150]

44 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

People have literally been "chattering" about this for months....

 

19 responses by a handful of people…that’s fair.

I agree with your statements on Nov. 5….love the obviously part. 

“A couple things:

First of all, you'd obviously give him some major league run before offering such a deal. Wait until he proves himself at a high level. That mitigates some of the risk right there.”

[Brewcrew82]

18 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

19 responses by a handful of people…that’s fair.

I agree with your statements on Nov. 5….love the obviously part. 

“A couple things:

First of all, you'd obviously give him some major league run before offering such a deal. Wait until he proves himself at a high level. That mitigates some of the risk right there.”

I approve of this nevertheless because this reportedly involves less money than the extension I proposed and still buys out around the same # of FA years. As I pointed out in that thread, the longer you wait, the more money you're going to likely end up paying. Can go rapidly from $80-90 million to $200-300 million. 

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, rickh150 said:

I agree….Chourio hit .805 in MiLB last year compared to Hiura’s .960. So  right. Not a fair comparison. Winker would be better.

Dude...I've seen your posts. I can tell when someone is making a genuine but ridiculous argument(Contreras should move to SS because his bat will help us more there, a comment nobody has actually made, but an example) or comparing a AAA Hiura who has no defensive value to the youngest player in AA last year.

It's just a bad faith argument and little more. 

It's possible you do believe it...in which case, I've overestimated you. 

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, rickh150 said:

people should have been chattering about this for months. 

Is this a serious comment? There have been threads for a YEAR now about the Brewers locking up the CF phenom whose statistical comparisons for age/level are guys like Griffey, Soto, and few others, the ELITE of the elite prospects. 

In the hypothetical, "your off-season," which started about halfway through the season I said I'd try and trade Yelich and sign Chourio(while explicitly stating I didn't think it would actually happen).

That's JUST me. I know Brewcrew82 has advocated it and...probably 20 different people have talked about this as it's such an easy call. 

4 players with 20/40 seasons as teenagers in the minors since 1960. Two of them at A-ball. Acuna Jr and Andruw Jones. 

 

 

Suggesting people haven't been talking about this for months(or actually quite a bit longer)...is just not remotely true.

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, rickh150 said:

And what is stopping Chourio from demanding a trade/holding out in year 5 or 6 of a 8-9 year deal for more money or better team?

Can you tell me the last player who's held out or forced his way out of an MLB team just because?

This is NOT the NBA, this is not the NFL. If it were, most of the Braves lineup would likely be demanding trades or holding out. Ronald Acuna Jr would probably have an issue, and Corbin Burnes would have likely not just been speculated to have pouted(or maybe he did pout and I missed it, but heard about it) when he lost his arbitration case. 

I forgot, did he refuse to show up this year?

 

And can we PLEASE stop saying "People wanted to sign Arcia." Sure. If you say so. Not like they want to sign Chourio. I WANT to sign Frelick, I WANT to sign Uribe, I wanted to sign Burnes/Woody early on(though pitching is a bit different). I'm still happy with the Peralta, and Ashby deals. I think it'd be a good idea to give Contreras a ~8/80 type extension. 

I can hold ALL those positions, believe that the Braves and Rays way of doing business is the smartest way...while STILL believing Chourio is a unique case and particularly important to get locked up early. 

Or, we can wait for a couple months to call him up(lose any chance to get draft pick compensation for him when he's in the ROY voting) or even worse, bring him up immediately and then lose him a year earlier because we don't pick up that service time.

Then when he's 25 and JUST hitting the prime of his career, ala Ronald Acuna Jr, we can be having the conversation about trading him now for top 100 prospects or get a comp pick for him. The rumored deal, ESPECIALLY if there are team options...is such a no-brainer, I think any team in the league would do it. 

[dlk9s]

On 11/28/2023 at 4:55 PM, jonescm128 said:

I would be really surprised if the Brewers did this. I don't see them going that high. Chourio only had 21 ABs in AAA.

8 years $80M maybe?

Ding ding ding!

https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1730217176978616799

[homer]

 

[BigFickEnergy]

Huge deal!

[bigred]

8 hours ago, wallus said:

Automatic bans for mentioning Hiura. What say you Bfan?

Well, you just mentioned Huira soooooooo.........you should be banned now? 🤣

[brewerfan82]

Love it! Hard to go wrong with $80M over 8 years as long as he becomes at least serviceable. Interested in hearing what the options look like. Guessing they're going to be pretty hefty to pick up, but awesome to have the control if he turns into what he could.

[Fear The Chorizo]

7 minutes ago, homer said:

 

Absent a very team-friendly longterm extension club option after year 8, this is exactly what I was hoping this type of deal would look like!

I also think doing this contract now sends out a signal that one of the other young brewer OFs could be available via trade as the winter meetings get rolling 

 

[titletownking]

12 minutes ago, dlk9s said:

Ding ding ding!

https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1730217176978616799

The two team options will be very interesting. Gives the Brewers tons of control for a potential superstar throughout his entire 20’s.