What to Expect From Joe Ross in 2024

[Paul Krueger]

Ross was a first-round pick of the San Diego Padres in 2011 and pitched to a 4.26 ERA across parts of six seasons with the Washington Nationals. He missed the entire 2022 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Ross signed with the San Francisco Giants last season and made eight late-season appearances in the minor leagues. 

Ross is primarily a sinker-slider pitcher but also mixes in a four-seam fastball and a changeup. Ross has pitched mainly as a starter, but his most straightforward path to innings in Milwaukee may be out of the bullpen. Pitching in shorter stints would allow him to focus on a two-pitch mix and help him maintain his velocity gain from last season. He would be a great bullpen/clubhouse presence and later in the season could be a fourth or fifth starter.  Expect Ross to be an average piece for the Brewers who desperately need pitching depth. 

[monty57]

That sums it up pretty well. While I expect some changes in the rotation prior to opening day through trades, as it stands now I think he's a "swing man" / multi-inning reliever. He may get a couple spot starts, but will mainly play an important role for the team on those days he needs to pitch 2-3 innings out of the 'pen.

[torts]

Cy young, duh

[Underachiever]

Interesting you wrote "desperately need pitching depth." I think the Reds desperately needed help and still do. The Cardinals as well. I'm not asking this to be a jerk, but if the Brewers are desperate, aren't about 27 other teams desperate as well?

[monty57]

3 hours ago, Underachiever said:

Interesting you wrote "desperately need pitching depth." I think the Reds desperately needed help and still do. The Cardinals as well. I'm not asking this to be a jerk, but if the Brewers are desperate, aren't about 27 other teams desperate as well?

Yes. I think if you asked every team at this point in the offseason, they'd all say "we'd like to add some more pitching." 

That said, the Brewers won 92 games mainly on pitching and defense. If we go into the year with a big drop-off in pitching without a big upgrade in offense, then it's safe to say we shouldn't expect to win as many games. Therefore, while the Brewers back of the rotation may not be as bad as some, we need it to be better than most, leading to a little more desperation than we might have if we had a couple more big bats in the order.

I expect a Burnes trade to happen sooner rather than later, and we'll have a clearer path to what our rotation may look like at that point. In the unlikely event that it doesn't happen, then we'll really be clear on our direction, and we'd better be spending big on some bats in the "go for it" year before Burnes heads to free agency.

[umphrey]

Ross is the hero we need but the one no one wanted 🤣

[jerichoholicninja]

I'm expecting absolutely nothing from him so he really can't disappoint me.

[wntrtxn21]

Looks like an AAAA swing man to me. Like an Alexander or Rea. Organizational depth and used when there is nobody else. 

[BrewerFan]

On 12/6/2023 at 10:50 AM, Underachiever said:

Interesting you wrote "desperately need pitching depth." I think the Reds desperately needed help and still do. The Cardinals as well. I'm not asking this to be a jerk, but if the Brewers are desperate, aren't about 27 other teams desperate as well?

Yeah, I missed that. That is a little bit of a head-scratcher. Even if you lose Burnes...and Williams, it's still not depth that you're in desperate need of, it's quality. Our BP is pretty good and pretty deep and there's reason to believe it'll be even better next year(namely Uribe). 

Our rotation didn't have Woody for much of last year as it was and that hurts and it may lose Burnes, and that'll hurt worse, but you do have two guys who should at worst be good depth pieces in Gasser and Rodriguez. Miley, Peralta, Ashby is coming back. Houser, Rea are both back. That's not exactly the 90s Braves, but it's a lot of depth. 

I think Ross is just a guy they think is back healthy and that they can work with to get the most out of. They've been pretty good in this regard. They're...bargain hunting for bats hasn't been particularly rewarding, but they've done well with pitching. 

[wibadgers23]

Brewers are viewing Ross as a starter.

 

[Jastro]

8 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Brewers are viewing Ross as a starter.

 

They said the same thing about Bryce Wilson last off-season about viewing him as a starter... 

[bigred]

Meant in blue. I expect a couple of paintings with happy little trees. Wait!.....wrong Ross I think. 

[SF70]

16 hours ago, Jastro said:

They said the same thing about Bryce Wilson last off-season about viewing him as a starter... 

Wilson didn’t have Ross’s history as a solid big-league starter. This could turn out to be even a better signing than Rea of last year, especially if the post-TJ velo is real and sustainable moving-forward.

Excited to see what our PDS can do for him.

[TURBO]

This guy is well worth the flyer we are taking on him.

[BrewerFan]

9 hours ago, TURBO said:

This guy is well worth the flyer we are taking on him.

Right. At best, he could keep the velo at ~96, use the Brewers to refine his pitchers. Just from a lazy glance at Fangraphs, his 96-97 MPH sinker(assuming the 3MPH hike is true) and his SL are his two best pitchers. 

You can get through a lineup twice with just two pitchers. 

I think 25 starts a 3.40 ERA and 120IP is the upside here(maybe a bit better, but that seems greedy).

More likely, he gets 7-10 starts and then throws out of the pen as a long man and carries an ERA of ~4

Worst case, we wasted 1.75M. There are FAR bigger downsides. 

I'd probably lean toward option #2, but who ever knows. 

[Sixtolezcano]

17-4   217K   2.94 ERA   1.17 FIP