Three trade proposals from Twins Daily

[Brock Beauchamp]

This piece is generating a ton of conversation on Brewers twitter so I thought I'd post it here. Cody breaks down three tiers of trades and unlike many trade proposals, they're quite fair for both sides. I think the Taylor/Farmer one makes a lot of sense as a low wattage move that improves both clubs.

https://twinsdaily.com/news-rumors/minnesota-twins/the-twins-and-brewers-are-perfect-trade-partners-r15397

[wiguy94]

1. Need Twins to give a small prospect. Tyrone and Farmer are similar level players but Tyrone is cheaper with 2 extra years of control. 1 for 1 is not even. 
 

2. I would probably do this. Maybe Twins need to throw on a small prospect.

3. I would have to think on this one. Value wise it seems fair but Julien is likely a 1B and I’m not sure a Black-Julien corner IF would work out. Julien could be the best hitter on the Brewers next year if we were to trade for him, so I think ultimately I would do it. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, wiguy94 said:

1. Need Twins to give a small prospect. Tyrone and Farmer are similar level players but Tyrone is cheaper with 2 extra years of control. 1 for 1 is not even. 

2. I would probably do this. Maybe Twins need to throw on a small prospect.

3. I would have to think on this one. Value wise it seems fair but Julien is likely a 1B and I’m not sure a Black-Julien corner IF would work out. Julien could be the best hitter on the Brewers next year if we were to trade for him, so I think ultimately I would do it. 

Yeah, the cost difference between Farmer and Taylor might be an issue. Hard to say for sure but the swap fills a need for both teams.

As for Julien, I don't know what to think of him. He was absolutely BRUTAL when he came up at second base. But by the final two months of the season, he looked okay at the position. But that's not enough of a sample to convince me of anything.

But he's young and pretty athletic. There's no reason for him to be as bad as he was in early 2023. He was also fighting off a... knee, I think?... injury that hampered him for much of the season.

[Brewcrew82]

I’d definitely do number 2. Would do number 1 if we trade Adames.

3 is more up in the air for me. Julien had a terrific season last year which we could certainly use in our lineup, but id be pretty nervous about him turning into another Keston Hiura. Julien walks more than Hiura, but other than that the similarities are pretty terrifying. So, I’d probably pass as I value Frelick 2nd to Chourio among our OF prospects.

[Brock Beauchamp]

52 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I’d definitely do number 2. Would do number 1 if we trade Adames.

3 is more up in the air for me. Julien had a terrific season last year which we could certainly use in our lineup, but id be pretty nervous about him turning into another Keston Hiura. Julien walks more than Hiura, but other than that the similarities are pretty terrifying. So, I’d probably pass as I value Frelick 2nd to Chourio among our OF prospects.

I don't think there's much overlap between Julien and Hiura other than both have iffy defense.

First, Julien is a lefty bat and he walks way more than Hiura. Julien's strike zone judgment isn't just good, it's elite.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Here is Julien's OBP by level:

A: .490 (204 PAs)
A+: .397 (310 PAs)
AA: .441 (508 PAs)
AAA: .435 (170 PAs)
MLB: .381 (408 PAs)

[Brewcrew82]

36 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't think there's much overlap between Julien and Hiura other than both have iffy defense.

First, Julien is a lefty bat and he walks way more than Hiura. Julien's strike zone judgment isn't just good, it's elite.

I already acknowledged that one big difference is Julien walks a lot more than Hiura. But then Hiura has superior power...

Meanwhile, ways in which they're similar are worrisome. Huge K and whiff rates. Stellar rookie season propped up by high BABIP/batted ball luck. Iffy/awful defense which leads to profile being entirely dependent on bat, etc. 

I don't think Julien will bottom out like Hiura did due to his on base ability, but I also don't think the Julien we saw last year is representative of the Julien we'll get moving forward. His Steamer projection looks about right to me: .239/.357/.399 1.8 fWAR in 543 PAs

I would not trade that for Frelick....

[BrewerFan]

47 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't think there's much overlap between Julien and Hiura other than both have iffy defense.

First, Julien is a lefty bat and he walks way more than Hiura. Julien's strike zone judgment isn't just good, it's elite.

Did Julien just kinda come out of nowhere? I'm looking at the Twins 2022 prospect list and he's not on there. 

I don't know much about him beyond the stat-line...which looks nice. But I also like Frelick a lot. I don't know if he's #2 to Chourio, or Wiemer is, but he's more of a sure thing, he brings a ton of energy and I think he's a winner.

 

I'd feel much better if it was Mitchell+ another prospect, but I just don't know much beyond what I see on Fangraphs. So no strong opinion on him. 

 

[wiguy94]

25 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I already acknowledged that one big difference is Julien walks a lot more than Hiura. But then Hiura has superior power...

Meanwhile, ways in which they're similar are worrisome. Huge K and whiff rates. Stellar rookie season propped up by high BABIP/batted ball luck. Iffy/awful defense which leads to profile being entirely dependent on bat, etc. 

I don't think Julien will bottom out like Hiura did due to his on base ability, but I also don't think the Julien we saw last year is representative of the Julien we'll get moving forward. His Steamer projection looks about right to me: .239/.357/.399 1.8 fWAR in 543 PAs

I would not trade that for Frelick....

Hiura's rookie whiff rate was 36% compared to Julien's 29%. That's a pretty huge disparity. That the same gap between Julien and Nimmo who had a 68th percentile whiff rate this year.

[sveumrules]

4 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Did Julien just kinda come out of nowhere? I'm looking at the Twins 2022 prospect list and he's not on there. 

I don't know much about him beyond the stat-line...which looks nice. But I also like Frelick a lot. I don't know if he's #2 to Chourio, or Wiemer is, but he's more of a sure thing, he brings a ton of energy and I think he's a winner.

 

I'd feel much better if it was Mitchell+ another prospect, but I just don't know much beyond what I see on Fangraphs. So no strong opinion on him. 

 

He was an 18th round pick in 2019 and didn't get his pro career underway until 2021 so definitely flew under the radar until he hit the ground raking. FanGraphs did have him #18 on their 2022 Twins list with this capsule summation to close his report...

Patient bordering on passive, Julien’s bat is what will carry him to the big leagues. He could end up tracking like Josh Rojas, who was also not a good defender but ended up playing several positions, kind of like a blunt Swiss Army Knife. Julien has played first, second, third, and in left field, and projects as a bat-first platoon role player.

They then bumped him to #3 on their Twins list and #82 overall with a 50 FV entering 2023 before graduating. Looks like they were the high outlet on him though as BRef doesn't list him making any other Top 100 lists.

[SRB]

11 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Did Julien just kinda come out of nowhere? I'm looking at the Twins 2022 prospect list and he's not on there. 

I don't know much about him beyond the stat-line...which looks nice. But I also like Frelick a lot. I don't know if he's #2 to Chourio, or Wiemer is, but he's more of a sure thing, he brings a ton of energy and I think he's a winner.

 

I'd feel much better if it was Mitchell+ another prospect, but I just don't know much beyond what I see on Fangraphs. So no strong opinion on him. 

 

Julien was a top 100 prospect coming into 2023, at least on Fangraphs. They had Frelick at #68 and Julien at #75.

[Brewcrew82]

22 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Hiura's rookie whiff rate was 36% compared to Julien's 29%. That's a pretty huge disparity. That the same gap between Julien and Nimmo who had a 68th percentile whiff rate this year.

Hiura's rookie K rate was actually better than Julian's, though...And he hit the ball harder.

Regardless, I would not trade Julien's expected or projected production with the bat (which is where he gets all of his value from) for Sal Frelick,

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I already acknowledged that one big difference is Julien walks a lot more than Hiura. But then Hiura has superior power...

Meanwhile, ways in which they're similar are worrisome. Huge K and whiff rates. Stellar rookie season propped up by high BABIP/batted ball luck. Iffy/awful defense which leads to profile being entirely dependent on bat, etc. 

I don't think Julien will bottom out like Hiura did due to his on base ability, but I also don't think the Julien we saw last year is representative of the Julien we'll get moving forward. His Steamer projection looks about right to me: .239/.357/.399 1.8 fWAR in 543 PAs

I would not trade that for Frelick....

Julien's K rate is high but some of that is due to his eye at the plate. That's nothing like Hiura.

Julien has a swinging strike percentage of 10%. The best Hiura ever posted, his rookie year, was 17.5%.

Julien had a zone contact of 81.4%. The best Hiura has ever posted is 76.9%, again his rookie year. He has spent multiple years in the 60s.

Julien's overall contact numbers are similarly different, about 12 percentage points higher than Hiura's career mark. Julien also swings far less often than Hiura, over ten percentage points less often.

They're really nothing alike other than they both strike out (and Julien not as often as Hiura even in his rookie season, adjusted for the league average). But strikeouts can be reached in very different ways. Hiura just flat-out misses the ball, Julien chooses not to swing at borderline pitches but makes better contact when he does choose to swing.

[wiguy94]

10 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Hiura's rookie K rate was actually better than Julian's, though...And he hit the ball harder.

Regardless, I would not trade Julien's expected or projected production with the bat (which is where he gets all of his value from) for Sal Frelick,

His K-rate was better because he was no where near as patient as Julien. Julian works counts and draws walks. Generally guys with big BB-rates will carry larger K-rates than guys with below average BB-rates.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

His K-rate was better because he was no where near as patient as Julien. Julian works counts and draws walks. Generally guys with big BB-rates will carry larger K-rates than guys with below average BB-rates.

Yep, if you're working full counts constantly, the margin for error drops and strikeouts will end up happening, usually in pretty high numbers.

But it's a worthwhile tradeoff if the player has a good eye and can actually do damage on mistake pitches, which Julien can.

[Brock Beauchamp]

34 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

He was an 18th round pick in 2019 and didn't get his pro career underway until 2021 so definitely flew under the radar until he hit the ground raking. FanGraphs did have him #18 on their 2022 Twins list with this capsule summation to close his report...

Patient bordering on passive, Julien’s bat is what will carry him to the big leagues. He could end up tracking like Josh Rojas, who was also not a good defender but ended up playing several positions, kind of like a blunt Swiss Army Knife. Julien has played first, second, third, and in left field, and projects as a bat-first platoon role player.

They then bumped him to #3 on their Twins list and #82 overall with a 50 FV entering 2023 before graduating. Looks like they were the high outlet on him though as BRef doesn't list him making any other Top 100 lists.

Going into 2023, Twins Daily had him at #5 on their top prospects list. I think he climbed the list a little but quickly lost rookie status so dropped off the list.

[Brewcrew82]

16 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

His K-rate was better because he was no where near as patient as Julien. Julian works counts and draws walks. Generally guys with big BB-rates will carry larger K-rates than guys with below average BB-rates.

Not every patient hitter carries a 30+% K rate, though....And as I said, Hiura hit the ball harder than Julien so that helps cancel things out. I don't believe I said it was a perfect comparison. 

Point is both overperformed their peripherals during their rookie seasons, and don't have defense/baserunning to fall back on to compensate. Julien likely to have a softer landing than Hiura did due to his on base ability, but something close to his Steamer projection seems likely. 

Not worth trading for Frelick who gives you value across the board and is a safer bet than our other outfielders. 

[wiguy94]

8 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yep, if you're working full counts constantly, the margin for error drops and strikeouts will end up happening, usually in pretty high numbers.

But it's a worthwhile tradeoff if the player has a good eye and can actually do damage on mistake pitches, which Julien can.

Out of 212 hitters with 400 PA last season, Julien was 64th in BB:K ratio at 0.50.

Out of 273 hitters 300 PA in Hiura's rookie year, Hiura was 243rd in BB:K ratio at 0.23.

It's almost not even worth comparing their K-rates when one draws walks at over double the rate of the other.

[Brewcrew82]

15 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Julien's K rate is high but some of that is due to his eye at the plate. That's nothing like Hiura.

Julien has a swinging strike percentage of 10%. The best Hiura ever posted, his rookie year, was 17.5%.

Julien had a zone contact of 81.4%. The best Hiura has ever posted is 76.9%, again his rookie year. He has spent multiple years in the 60s.

Julien's overall contact numbers are similarly different, about 12 percentage points higher than Hiura's career mark. Julien also swings far less often than Hiura, over ten percentage points less often.

They're really nothing alike other than they both strike out (and Julien not as often as Hiura even in his rookie season, adjusted for the league average). But strikeouts can be reached in very different ways. Hiura just flat-out misses the ball, Julien chooses not to swing at borderline pitches but makes better contact when he does choose to swing.

Julien makes more contact than Hiura did, but certainly not better contact,,,,

I'm strictly comparing their rookie seasons because that's all we have to go on from Julien right now. 

[Brewcrew82]

I would trade Mitchell or Wiemer for Julien, but I doubt the Twins go for that right now. Maybe revisit next winter. 

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Not every patient hitter carries a 30+% K rate, though....And as I said, Hiura hit the ball harder than Julien so that helps cancel things out. I don't believe I said it was a perfect comparison. 

Point is both overperformed their peripherals during their rookie seasons, and don't have defense/baserunning to fall back on to compensate. Julien likely to have a softer landing than Hiura did due to his on base ability, but something like his Steamer projection seems likely. 

Not worth trading for Frelick who gives you value across the board and is a safer bet than our other outfielders. 

Hiura overperformed his xwOBA by 36 points as a rookie. Julien overperformed his xwOBA by 21 points as a rookie. That's a pretty massive difference in overperformance. 

[endaround]

6 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Not every patient hitter carries a 30+% K rate, though....And as I said, Hiura hit the ball harder than Julien so that helps cancel things out. I don't believe I said it was a perfect comparison. 

Point is both overperformed their peripherals during their rookie seasons, and don't have defense/baserunning to fall back on to compensate. Julien likely to have a softer landing than Hiura did due to his on base ability, but something like his Steamer projection seems likely. 

Not worth trading for Frelick who gives you value across the board and is a safer bet than our other outfielders. 

Frelick's iso makes him fairly risky.  Very few players provide positive value while maintaining an iso near .100.   Moving Frelick to a corner to make room for Chourio makes this an even bigger issue as Frelick's defense won't be covering for his bat as much.

The Brewers have 4 players who best fit in CF.  The group needs to be thinned somehow.

[wiguy94]

7 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Julien makes more contact than Hiura did, but certainly not better contact,,,,

I'm strictly comparing their rookie seasons because that's all we have to go on from Julien right now. 

Julien was 33rd in xwOBACON out of 212 hitters with 400 PA, so it's not like Julien isn't also making great contact.

Just look at some of the names within 10 xwOBACON points of Julien. Riley, Soto, Muncy, Devers, Goldschmidt, Tatis, Contreras, Betts, Alsonso, Bichette. Like that's some very elite company.

[Brewcrew82]

12 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Hiura overperformed his xwOBA by 36 points as a rookie. Julien overperformed his xwOBA by 21 points as a rookie. That's a pretty massive difference in overperformance. 

Semantics. They both overperformed to a significant degree...

Why would you trade Frelick for a Julien who produces more in line with what Steamer is projecting from him? If he hit the ball a little harder and in the air more to be more of a 3 TO hitter, I might consider it, but otherwise you're looking an on base specialist who can't field and doesn't give you any value on the base-paths. 

Frelick has his own power questions, but otherwise gives you value everywhere else on the field and at a premium position if you needed him there. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

Julien was 33rd in xwOBACON out of 212 hitters with 400 PA, so it's not like Julien isn't also making great contact.

Just look at some of the names within 10 xwOBACON points of Julien. Riley, Soto, Muncy, Devers, Goldschmidt, Tatis, Contreras, Betts, Alsonso, Bichette. Like that's some very elite company.

50.2 GB%....