Jacob Misiorowski-Timeline

[BrewerFan]

Just curious what the thoughts on Misiorowski are on here.

I remember last year...particularly when the Future Stars game performance went viral, there were a lot of people clamoring for him to be in Milwaukee.

I've seen him mentioned as option to be a starter for the Brewers this year. Not one of the top 5-6, but high enough on the list that he'd likely make the start.

I look at Misiorowski and it's impossible to miss the ridiculous upside. I could EASILY see him having a Uribe-like impact this year, BUT, is that the best use of a pitcher with his talent?

He has a FB that seems to be high effort, but he's been able to maintain it deeper into starts(the few starts he went deep in). He's got a slider that is unhittable when he locates it and then another pitcher...I can't even tell what it is. A power curve maybe? One breaking ball at ~92, one at ~86 or so. And then a changeup that looks like he could become a weapon.

The issue is if the Brewers use him out of the pen too early, he may end up like Hader and just stay there as a dominant multi-inning reliever. And while I'd never suggest Hader was a failure in anyway, he was a dominant reliever, he was similar in that he was a bit erratic, but his stuff was overpowering enough that he could get by in the pen, but needed to develop more in the rotation. 

I'd like to see him start the year in AA as a starter, try and get him to work deeper into games, work on his command, and not add him to the 40 or call him up just because he's the best reliever available, but allow him to develop, hopefully into our next TOR arm. Our next Burnes/Woodruff. Maybe a deGrom-lite. I'd be completely fine not seeing him in 2024 and waiting until 2025 to break in, or if we made the playoffs, get 3-4 innings as Burnes and Woodruff did.

 

I'm seeing a lot of #3/4 type arms coming up, some guys who are too far away yet. And then Peralta(a #2/3), Ashby a complete question mark, but TOR-type stuff.

 

What would everyone else like to see from Misiorowski? Bring him up this year if he's one of our best 7 relievers...or roll the dice a bit, put more inninggs on his arm(which comes with risk), and try and develop him as a starter?

[Brewcrew82]

13 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Just curious what the thoughts on Misiorowski are on here.

I remember last year...particularly when the Future Stars game performance went viral, there were a lot of people clamoring for him to be in Milwaukee.

I've seen him mentioned as option to be a starter for the Brewers this year. Not one of the top 5-6, but high enough on the list that he'd likely make the start.

I look at Misiorowski and it's impossible to miss the ridiculous upside. I could EASILY see him having a Uribe-like impact this year, BUT, is that the best use of a pitcher with his talent?

He has a FB that seems to be high effort, but he's been able to maintain it deeper into starts(the few starts he went deep in). He's got a slider that is unhittable when he locates it and then another pitcher...I can't even tell what it is. A power curve maybe? One breaking ball at ~92, one at ~86 or so. And then a changeup that looks like he could become a weapon.

The issue is if the Brewers use him out of the pen too early, he may end up like Hader and just stay there as a dominant multi-inning reliever. And while I'd never suggest Hader was a failure in anyway, he was a dominant reliever, he was similar in that he was a bit erratic, but his stuff was overpowering enough that he could get by in the pen, but needed to develop more in the rotation. 

I'd like to see him start the year in AA as a starter, try and get him to work deeper into games, work on his command, and not add him to the 40 or call him up just because he's the best reliever available, but allow him to develop, hopefully into our next TOR arm. Our next Burnes/Woodruff. Maybe a deGrom-lite. I'd be completely fine not seeing him in 2024 and waiting until 2025 to break in, or if we made the playoffs, get 3-4 innings as Burnes and Woodruff did.

 

I'm seeing a lot of #3/4 type arms coming up, some guys who are too far away yet. And then Peralta(a #2/3), Ashby a complete question mark, but TOR-type stuff.

 

What would everyone else like to see from Misiorowski? Bring him up this year if he's one of our best 7 relievers...or roll the dice a bit, put more inninggs on his arm(which comes with risk), and try and develop him as a starter?

Answer seems pretty straightforward to me. Work him as far as you can as a starter and then once he approaches his innings limit (career high of 76 this year so maybe 110-120) transition him to the bullpen culminating in a stint in the majors in August/September.

Of course, there's also the possibility that he experiences significant gains in his control and tears up AA in which case you might get him some major league starts.

Most likely, though, any impact on the big league club in 2024 will be out of the bullpen. I wouldn't worry about the Brewers keeping him there like Hader. They have repeatedly said they are committed to him as a starter. And why wouldn't you with his elite upside. Hader didn't have 3-4 plus to plus plus pitches like Misiorowski did. It was almost entirely fastball with him early in his career. 

[BrewerFan]

18 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Answer seems pretty straightforward to me. Work him as far as you can as a starter and then once he approaches his innings limit (career high of 76 this year so maybe 110-120) transition him to the bullpen culminating in a stint in the majors in August/September.

Of course, there's also the possibility that he experiences significant gains in his control and tears up AA in which case you might get him some major league starts.

Most likely, though, any impact on the big league club in 2024 will be out of the bullpen. I wouldn't worry about the Brewers keeping him there like Hader. They have repeatedly said they are committed to him as a starter. And why wouldn't you with his elite upside. Hader didn't have 3-4 plus to plus plus pitches like Misiorowski did. It was almost entirely fastball with him early in his career. 

I think you're forgetting what type of prospect Hader was(it's kinda easy to remember him as a more surefire reliever vs a starter, but we were committed to keeping him as a starter as well). Nearly as highly regarded, but he was also supposed to remain a starter until they saw what he could do in 2-3 innings stints. 

He had a 60 FB, 65 SL and a developing Change when he was in the same position Misiorowski would be if things went right and he got his 120-130 innings in. When Hader broke in with the Brewers, he had a ~1.5 Whip, fewer K's per 9, but he'd started his entire career save for some of the AZF and a few years earlier with Hou when he started 17 of the 24 games he'd appeared in, otherwise he was a starter.

 

I hope you're right. I hope he gets 120 IP as a starter, then in a playoff push is used sparingly out of the pen for 2-3 innings at a time. But I think the chances of Hader becoming a starter were higher than we remember them. He became a top ~20-30 prospect as a starting pitcher. 

Hopefully, his delivery works for him, not against him(As that has great minds like Keith Law speculating his future role is that of a reliever). 

 

(Before they started letting him go longer outings). I don't think Law is particularly insightful, but these are the concerns I've heard shared by others. 

https://theathletic.com/4531405/2023/05/19/mlb-prospects-brewers-pirates-phillies/

[brewcrewdue80]

Hader was on his 6th season of work in the minors upon getting called up. He'd have long been on the 40man protecting from rule 5 a year+already. Miserioski just completed his 2nd season all with games started. His role has to be one towards SP. He's just so advanced they have him facing AA already. 

What you have is your Brewers FO next long extension similar to Ashby or Peralta.  The Brewers would be wise keeping him in the minors this entire season as it's just his 3rd, saving the 40man spot, and giving him a year more of increasing his innings limit as a SP.  If we see him added to the team this season in Sept as a RP, the Brewers are looking the best team in baseball. Misiorowski's addition is belief they are on the road winning a WS with him, not just him joining for the playoffs.

So timeline to me is 2024 all in minors as SP.  2025 potential for extension, starts in AAA.  You have 1 year of showing off his future starter prowess. So the role is more determined vs questioning if he takes on RP.  I'd expect he's long proven his future is a SP. Let's not forget he got to throw to Quero in AA appearances. A soon to be future. (Wonder if Quero starts in AA this year just to be with Misiorowski before AAA promotion)

2025 he'll get the call beyond the Super 2 line if he hasn't gotten that contract. You will not want to go through Super 2 with his ceiling.  I'd hope by the end of 2025 he's approaching 130-139 IP. Big jump but he's got the large frame to build off on.  So 6 years of control beyond 2026 he's pushing that 160IP this era SP thresholds and past immediately as a full season starter.  A call up this season would also come with good vibes they have a 7year+ extension nearly signed and you don't care about Super 2 or starting his clock.

 

[SF70]

4 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Just curious what the thoughts on Misiorowski are on here.

I remember last year...particularly when the Future Stars game performance went viral, there were a lot of people clamoring for him to be in Milwaukee.

I've seen him mentioned as option to be a starter for the Brewers this year. Not one of the top 5-6, but high enough on the list that he'd likely make the start.

I look at Misiorowski and it's impossible to miss the ridiculous upside. I could EASILY see him having a Uribe-like impact this year, BUT, is that the best use of a pitcher with his talent?

He has a FB that seems to be high effort, but he's been able to maintain it deeper into starts(the few starts he went deep in). He's got a slider that is unhittable when he locates it and then another pitcher...I can't even tell what it is. A power curve maybe? One breaking ball at ~92, one at ~86 or so. And then a changeup that looks like he could become a weapon.

The issue is if the Brewers use him out of the pen too early, he may end up like Hader and just stay there as a dominant multi-inning reliever. And while I'd never suggest Hader was a failure in anyway, he was a dominant reliever, he was similar in that he was a bit erratic, but his stuff was overpowering enough that he could get by in the pen, but needed to develop more in the rotation. 

I'd like to see him start the year in AA as a starter, try and get him to work deeper into games, work on his command, and not add him to the 40 or call him up just because he's the best reliever available, but allow him to develop, hopefully into our next TOR arm. Our next Burnes/Woodruff. Maybe a deGrom-lite. I'd be completely fine not seeing him in 2024 and waiting until 2025 to break in, or if we made the playoffs, get 3-4 innings as Burnes and Woodruff did.

 

I'm seeing a lot of #3/4 type arms coming up, some guys who are too far away yet. And then Peralta(a #2/3), Ashby a complete question mark, but TOR-type stuff.

 

What would everyone else like to see from Misiorowski? Bring him up this year if he's one of our best 7 relievers...or roll the dice a bit, put more inninggs on his arm(which comes with risk), and try and develop him as a starter?

Actually, he hasn’t been able to maintain his velocity deeper into games, losing velo after just 3 innings or so, which tells me he’s far from starting for the big-club even if he continues to make command improvement.

I think the focus will be on building-up his stamina which could take time, maybe 1-2 years. He can’t start out at 97-100, and sit 94-95 by the 4th inning if he going to eventually rotation.

Hes worth taking our time with.

[Fear The Chorizo]

6 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I think you're forgetting what type of prospect Hader was(it's kinda easy to remember him as a more surefire reliever vs a starter, but we were committed to keeping him as a starter as well). Nearly as highly regarded, but he was also supposed to remain a starter until they saw what he could do in 2-3 innings stints. 

He had a 60 FB, 65 SL and a developing Change when he was in the same position Misiorowski would be if things went right and he got his 120-130 innings in. When Hader broke in with the Brewers, he had a ~1.5 Whip, fewer K's per 9, but he'd started his entire career save for some of the AZF and a few years earlier with Hou when he started 17 of the 24 games he'd appeared in, otherwise he was a starter.

 

I hope you're right. I hope he gets 120 IP as a starter, then in a playoff push is used sparingly out of the pen for 2-3 innings at a time. But I think the chances of Hader becoming a starter were higher than we remember them. He became a top ~20-30 prospect as a starting pitcher. 

Hopefully, his delivery works for him, not against him(As that has great minds like Keith Law speculating his future role is that of a reliever). 

 

(Before they started letting him go longer outings). I don't think Law is particularly insightful, but these are the concerns I've heard shared by others. 

https://theathletic.com/4531405/2023/05/19/mlb-prospects-brewers-pirates-phillies/

Hader was the throw in piece of the Gomez trade with the Astros that wasn't going to be mlb ready by the time he'd reach rule 5 eligibility, and the Astros didn't have room on their 40 man roster to hold onto him.  That was also the second time he was traded.  If he had a lofty prospect status at that time, no way he would have been jumping organizations every couple years.  He didn't blow up in terms of being a potential stud mlb until AZ fall league in 2016, a full season after being traded to the Brewers- the format for that league is pitchers getting an inning or two per appearance, which was a natural way for him to showcase how dominant he could be as a reliever with a limited arsenal of pitches.

 

Jacob M. is an altogether different animal in terms of what his mlb ceiling is - Hader is one of the greatest LH relievers of his generation, but he'd wish he had the arm and raw stuff Misiorowski does.  To me, it's all about continued focus on refining command, repeating delivery, and hoping for good health.  He will likely start back in AA, and at some point move up to Nashville with a starter's workload - whether he winds up seeing time in Milwaukee as a starter or reliever late summer depends on his health and where the Brewers are in the standings.  Pitchers that are ready for mlb don't get stashed in the brewer minor leagues, they get called up to use their bullets in mlb before injuries cost them time and team control.  Jacob M. scuffled a bit in AA last season, but seemed to settle in late - if he picks up where he left off at the end of last year he wont be long for Milwaukee, and we can continue wishing the system could have more pitching prospect depth while looking the other way whenever Gasser and Mis are on the hill at AmFam instead of Nashville or Biloxi.

[Playing Catch]

It's probably too early in his development for this, but I'd like to see him and Ashby piggyback. Planned, shorter stints for both of them could be really effective from a team-standpoint, and from the player standpoint.

[nate82]

6 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

He had a 60 FB, 65 SL and a developing Change when he was in the same position Misiorowski would be if things went right and he got his 120-130 innings in.

Hader couldn't develop a change up like Sale as it is very difficult to do from the low 3/4 arm slot.  It is extremely difficult to get on top of the ball from that arm slot which you need to do to have a successful change up.  Hader just couldn't do that consistently.  His change up in 2017 was rated as a 45 which is a below average pitch.

Hader became a reliever because he couldn't consistently throw the change up and that was mainly due to his arm slot.  If Misio will become a reliever it will mainly be due to injury concerns.  Hader and Misio are completely different pitchers and there is no comparison other than looking at K% and BB%. 

I think MIsio has another year but he could see an MLB mound in '24 as a reliever.  I believe the Brewers will want to build up his innings more so I am not sure that is 100% in the plans for the Brewers but it is possible he sees MLB action in '24 if everything goes right. 

 

[MrTPlush]

Misiorowski started an impressive 20 games last year. The downside, he barely managed to average 3 innings in all those starts. He threw 6 innings once and 5 innings just three times. Am I missing something, I don't recall him coming off some major injury or anything. I get he is young, but you would think he would pitch a bit more than that. Given, by the middle to end of the year he started not pitching all that great, so he didn't really deserve to sit out there 5+ innings. 

Josh Hader was consistently throwing 5+ innings and 6 innings a lot. 

This year will probably be pretty telling. He has three pitches that are decent+ (I think), but his command is awful. He will probably benefit from the Brewers not being in a great spot to compete (compared to when Hader came up) and they will probably be more patient.

[jay87shot]

If he pitches well I'd say 40-50 innings in AA, then to AAA. Ideally he would get a September call up after 40-50 innings in AAA and work 20-30 innings in the bullpen and be ready to be in the rotation in 2025.

I have always liked the idea of piggybacking a big arm with a softer tossing opposite arm. Maybe if the rotation is solid and Ashby, Gasser, and Carlos Rodriguez are good as well he could work a piggy back situation half way threw the year with a guy like Wade Miley. Misi starts throw 60-70 pitches and then Miley pitches threw to the 8th (or 9th if needed). That way you keep his work load down, guys will get 2 ab's against heat and be thrown of the slower stuff from Miley, and can sort of save the bullpen once a week.

[Fear The Chorizo]

22 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Misiorowski started an impressive 20 games last year. The downside, he barely managed to average 3 innings in all those starts. He threw 6 innings once and 5 innings just three times. Am I missing something, I don't recall him coming off some major injury or anything. I get he is young, but you would think he would pitch a bit more than that. Given, by the middle to end of the year he started not pitching all that great, so he didn't really deserve to sit out there 5+ innings. 

Josh Hader was consistently throwing 5+ innings and 6 innings a lot. 

This year will probably be pretty telling. He has three pitches that are decent+ (I think), but his command is awful. He will probably benefit from the Brewers not being in a great spot to compete (compared to when Hader came up) and they will probably be more patient.

It's pitch count moreso than innings pitched for guys that are mainly focused on developing more consistency with their delivery - that's Misiorowski's biggest area needing refinement.  Command improves with consistency and learning how to harness your stuff - I'm looking forward to what he looks like after working through some AA struggles and having another offseason to further develop physically and working on that delivery.

Through most of his minor league appearances last season, including AA, Jacob M would rack up big pitch innings primarily because hitters couldn't put the ball in play and were battling to either walk or strike out.  I also recall frequent commentary on umpires flat out missing strike calls with his stuff that led to walks/extra batters faced and pitches thrown.  

This was also Misiorowski's 1st minor league season of development after 1 year at a Juco program after high school, so the first time in his life he had a regular season that spanned 5+ months of games and not 2-3...if he wasn't as raw as he is, he would've been a 1st round draft pick out of high school - but the stuff is absolutely there.  That being said, making a 20 yr old with developing mechanics jump into pitching 100+ innings his first minor league season just because he's 20 is a good way to injure a 100mph arm.  No problem whatsoever with him pitching ~71 minor league innings across 3 levels, plus spring training/futures game for his 1st full professional season.  

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, SF70 said:

Actually, he hasn’t been able to maintain his velocity deeper into games, losing velo after just 3 innings or so, which tells me he’s far from starting for the big-club even if he continues to make command improvement.

I think the focus will be on building-up his stamina which could take time, maybe 1-2 years. He can’t start out at 97-100, and sit 94-95 by the 4th inning if he going to eventually rotation.

Hes worth taking our time with.

That was earlier last year and what Law was complaining about early in the season. Aug 3 and Aug 16th, he maintained his velocity much better in the 4th, 5th, 6th innings. 

 

57 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Hader couldn't develop a change up like Sale as it is very difficult to do from the low 3/4 arm slot. 

Misiorowski also throws from a 3/4 arm slot and you'd say you need to get on top of that Curve in order to develop that as a 3rd pitch.  Also, Maddux threw from a 3/4 arm slot and had one of the great changeups in MLB.

As long as he can change speeds and get movement, I'm not all that concerned about the angle he's throwing it. 

https://www.chrisoleary.com/pitching/arm-slot.html

58 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Hader became a reliever because he couldn't consistently throw the change up and that was mainly due to his arm slot.

Hader became a reliever because he was called up from AAA after walking 5.5 with a Whip over 1.5 and an ERA over 5(similar to Misiorowski last year despite his stuff) and he excelled in shorter outings, that's what prompted his move the following year after falling a game short of the playoffs in '17.

When he was called up, he was a starter, he was a top 20-30 prospect, and he was struggling with his command. 

42 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Misiorowski started an impressive 20 games last year. The downside, he barely managed to average 3 innings in all those starts. He threw 6 innings once and 5 innings just three times. Am I missing something, I don't recall him coming off some major injury or anything. I get he is young, but you would think he would pitch a bit more than that. Given, by the middle to end of the year he started not pitching all that great, so he didn't really deserve to sit out there 5+ innings. 

Josh Hader was consistently throwing 5+ innings and 6 innings a lot. 

 

I think his first year, a high effort delivery perhaps and they were working with him on his control. Arm like that doesn't need pin-point command, but high walk rates, some HBP often mixed in.

By the end of the year though arguably his best two outings, 5IP and then 6IP(2 of his last 3 outings) were two of his best, including the 6IP, 1H, 0 ER, 3BB and 2 HBP, but also 12Ks is hopefully a jumping off point.

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

This year will probably be pretty telling. He has three pitches that are decent+ (I think), but his command is awful. He will probably benefit from the Brewers not being in a great spot to compete (compared to when Hader came up) and they will probably be more patient.

I hope you're right in the larger point. Just continuing the Hader comp, he was brought up(from being a starter) in June of '17 when we were close to .500.

Perhaps a more stable BP and the fact that Misiorowski is earlier on in his development will force the Brewers to be more patient.

He can afford to be a little wild, but he can't afford to have 5-7 HBP/BB per 9 innings. 

I'd like to see him spend maybe half of the year in AA working on repeating his delivery and throwing more strikes and hopefully, picking up where he left off, then AAA and only brought up if it's as a starter. Not because we're within 2-3 games of the last playoff spot late in the year.

 

We'll have to live with their decision either way, but I hope it's as a starter vs a reliever.

 

 

 

[brewcrewdue80]

1 hour ago, MrTPlush said:

Misiorowski started an impressive 20 games last year. The downside, he barely managed to average 3 innings in all those starts. He threw 6 innings once and 5 innings just three times. Am I missing something, I don't recall him coming off some major injury or anything. I get he is young, but you would think he would pitch a bit more than that. Given, by the middle to end of the year he started not pitching all that great, so he didn't really deserve to sit out there 5+ innings. 

Josh Hader was consistently throwing 5+ innings and 6 innings a lot. 

This year will probably be pretty telling. He has three pitches that are decent+ (I think), but his command is awful. He will probably benefit from the Brewers not being in a great spot to compete (compared to when Hader came up) and they will probably be more patient.

Gotta build that arm for that workload. Hader had the 5+seasons to do it. Miserioski is only through #2.  I mention innings limitations.  FT-Chorizo mentions limitations to pitch count.  Just like we'll see going through ST and 1st 2 Games started its only stellar starts that reach pitching in the 7th inning.  That's what Miserioski needs when taking the mounds probably given 30-40-50 escalating limits.  See how he's feeling or looking between starts and adjusting accordingly. What may be opening to 70 pitches for 1 start turns back to 50-55 the next 1 or 2.  I'm sure there's a stat in gamelogs to post his pitch counts mostly regardless of how his day was going.

Checking milb now.  No pitch count there.  I did find a batters faced on Fangraphs and just going to generalize off that.  Start #3 hit 9. Then 10, 13, 14, 15-19 through A+, 22, 18, 22, 22, 23 final starts of season in AA.

It's a basic reach of 4 pitches per PA so you were likely looking at 40/50/60/70 and 80-85 counts before pulled.  He'll likely have the same type of initial start only 1 start faster.   I'll guess looking at that mid being 10/11 starts and final 5 starts in AA cranked up, that he goes 5 mid, ramps to the 80 for this seasons next 10, and your promote 5/6+ starts in AAA opening him to 90+.  

He'd be ready come 2025 to take the ball after 2 starts 80 pitches deep without concerns jumping to 90 in that start. You keep him down in AAA for service time and call him up when he crosses the 90pitch threshold down there.

 

[MrTPlush]

4 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Gotta build that arm for that workload. Hader had the 5+seasons to do it. Miserioski is only through #2.  I mention innings limitations.  FT-Chorizo mentions limitations to pitch count.  Just like we'll see going through ST and 1st 2 Games started its only stellar starts that reach pitching in the 7th inning.  That's what Miserioski needs when taking the mounds probably given 30-40-50 escalating limits.  See how he's feeling or looking between starts and adjusting accordingly. What may be opening to 70 pitches for 1 start turns back to 50-55 the next 1 or 2.  I'm sure there's a stat in gamelogs to post his pitch counts mostly regardless of how his day was going.

Checking milb now.  No pitch count there.  I did find a batters faced on Fangraphs and just going to generalize off that.  Start #3 hit 9. Then 10, 13, 14, 15-19 through A+, 22, 18, 22, 22, 23 final starts of season in AA.

It's a basic reach of 4 pitches per PA so you were likely looking at 40/50/60/70 and 80-85 counts before pulled.  He'll likely have the same type of initial start only 1 start faster.   I'll guess looking at that mid being 10/11 starts and final 5 starts in AA cranked up, that he goes 5 mid, ramps to the 80 for this seasons next 10, and your promote 5/6+ starts in AAA opening him to 90+.  

He'd be ready come 2025 to take the ball after 2 starts 80 pitches deep without concerns jumping to 90 in that start. You keep him down in AAA for service time and call him up when he crosses the 90pitch threshold down there.

 

Josh Hader was drafted in 2012 out of HS and was a reliever for the remainder of the year (19th rounder signing fast). In his second year he instantly started tossing 6 innings. I won't pretend to know what kind of pitcher Hader was back then...he may not have been the flamethrower he was by the time the Brewers were acquiring him. Of course, MiLB stats don't exactly give out pitch count for game logs...at least easily found. 

I guess as far as this question goes...the timeline is probably 25 or even 26 if you are aspiring to give him every chance to be a starter. If that falls apart we will probably see him a lot sooner. I don't think there is much of a chance we see him this year. He didn't exactly dominate to end last year, so I can't imagine he is going to sprint through AA and rack up a bunch of time at AAA. I think he would have to have quite a year to show up in Milwaukee come September. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Josh Hader was drafted in 2012 out of HS and was a reliever for the remainder of the year (19th rounder signing fast). In his second year he instantly started tossing 6 innings. I won't pretend to know what kind of pitcher Hader was back then...he may not have been the flamethrower he was by the time the Brewers were acquiring him. Of course, MiLB stats don't exactly give out pitch count for game logs...at least easily found. 

I guess as far as this question goes...the timeline is probably 25 or even 26 if you are aspiring to give him every chance to be a starter. If that falls apart we will probably see him a lot sooner. I don't think there is much of a chance we see him this year. He didn't exactly dominate to end last year, so I can't imagine he is going to sprint through AA and rack up a bunch of time at AAA. I think he would have to have quite a year to show up in Milwaukee come September. 

I think that's the biggest difference, as a 19th rounder, Hader wasn't a bonus baby ($40K signee) and he was dumped into the middle of a generally weakly regarded Oriole farm system at the time.  Hader may have been logging more innings early, but honestly he had to hit the ground running if he wanted to have any sort of chance at a MLB career based on his draft position.

Misiorowski already has a MLB-ready pitch mix, and I think his timeline based on the first few AA starts from last year evaporates if he continues improving his command.  He will still just be 22 at the start of next season.

This is a scouting report about Hader from a scout in 2014, into his THIRD minor league season  - this report indicated Hader's peak FB velo was 93, sitting at 90, and the pitch grades for FB/Curve/Change were 60/55/55....other scouting reports indicated that Hader frequently tired and got inconsistent later in his appearances as a starter, which never really improved over time and prompted his move into the bullpen.

Hader is an interesting prospect in the sense that some his strengths may also be his weaknesses. He does not possess an overpowering pitch, but there is plenty of deception in his delivery, allowing each of his offerings to play up. Hitters are simply never comfortable from the moment they step in the box. In fact, I saw one hitter swing and miss at a pitch that hit him square on for strike three.

However, all the moving parts within his mechanics make it hard for him to repeat his arm slot for five innings. Finding a consistency and being able to repeat in the long-term will be the key.

I believe there is enough going on here to warrant a No. 4 starter ceiling for the recently turned 20-year-old. Hader is undoubtedly a long-term project, as noted by the 2017 ETA, but the wait could be worth it once he is a complete product. In the meantime, I would like to see him work on adding a slider to his repertoire as a fourth pitch. Perhaps more importantly, he will need to continue to build arm strength while improving his strength and conditioning.

[BrewerFan]

6 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

This is a scouting report about Hader from a scout in 2014, into his THIRD minor league season  - this report indicated Hader's peak FB velo was 93, sitting at 90, and the pitch grades for FB/Curve/Change were 60/55/55....

Hader was at AA by 20 and was a top 100 prospect two years going into 2017(by one service at least) and as high as top 20...and this was while he was still a starter. So his 2014 scouting report means very little to me in this context. 

But I don't know why we're going back to when they were 18. At 18, Misiorowski was unheard of and not even drafted. 

8 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

I guess as far as this question goes...the timeline is probably 25 or even 26 if you are aspiring to give him every chance to be a starter. If that falls apart we will probably see him a lot sooner. I don't think there is much of a chance we see him this year. He didn't exactly dominate to end last year, so I can't imagine he is going to sprint through AA and rack up a bunch of time at AAA. I think he would have to have quite a year to show up in Milwaukee come September. 

That's how I'd hope they'd proceed, but he was just listed as a potential starter later this year by a prominent Brewers beat writer and there were a lot of people calling for him to get promoted to the Brewers by the end of last year and the Brewers didn't exactly throw cold water on that. I can't recall the exact statement, but CC was asked in the dugout after the performance if he could force his way into the pen and he said something like that's up to the player and guys move at different paces. Could have been meaningless, but it made me think they'd considered it. 

His last couple outings though, particularly the last and 3rd to last, he went 5 and 6 innings. I do think he could pitch effectively out of the pen right now, but again, just feels like it'd be a bit of a waste. 

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

29 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Hader was at AA by 20 and was a top 100 prospect two years going into 2017(by one service at least) and as high as top 20...and this was while he was still a starter. So his 2014 scouting report means very little to me in this context. 

But I don't know why we're going back to when they were 18. At 18, Misiorowski was unheard of and not even drafted. 

That's how I'd hope they'd proceed, but he was just listed as a potential starter later this year by a prominent Brewers beat writer and there were a lot of people calling for him to get promoted to the Brewers by the end of last year and the Brewers didn't exactly throw cold water on that. I can't recall the exact statement, but CC was asked in the dugout after the performance if he could force his way into the pen and he said something like that's up to the player and guys move at different paces. Could have been meaningless, but it made me think they'd considered it. 

His last couple outings though, particularly the last and 3rd to last, he went 5 and 6 innings. I do think he could pitch effectively out of the pen right now, but again, just feels like it'd be a bit of a waste. 

 

Not sure we are on the same page - that scouting report on Hader was from a game when he was in AA as a 20 yr old, not when he was drafted out of hs at 18.  My larger point was Hader wasn't considered a prospect worth anything longterm until multiple years as a minor leaguer, while Jacob M. pitched in the futures game at a similar age and earlier development timeline than Hader.  In the end its splitting hairs  because they are vastly different pitchers.

[BrewerFan]

8 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Not sure we are on the same page - that scouting report on Hader was from a game when he was in AA as a 20 yr old, not when he was drafted out of hs at 18.  My larger point was Hader wasn't considered a prospect worth anything longterm until multiple years as a minor leaguer, while Jacob M. pitched in the futures game at a similar age and earlier development timeline than Hader.  In the end its splitting hairs  because they are vastly different pitchers.

I don't think they're that different. I think they have more similar than in common. 

That was also from a site that had him rated as the 19th best pitching prospect in all of baseball as a starting pitcher, and his scouting report sounds eerily similar comparing Hader to Misiorowski right now. 

You could read most of it and try and figure out which pitcher they're talking about;

Hader CB

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Inconsistent offering that flashes above-average potential 

 

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here is plenty of deception in his delivery, allowing each of his offerings to play up. Hitters are simply never comfortable from the moment they step in the box. In fact, I saw one hitter swing and miss at a pitch that hit him square on for strike three.

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However, all the moving parts within his mechanics make it hard for him to repeat his arm slot for five innings. Finding a consistency and being able to repeat in the long-term will be the key.

These could certainly be applicable to either. 

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Similarly to the curveball, the changeup flashes above-average potential. When he turns the wrist over, the offering comes in with deception and horizontal action.

This could apply to both, but Hader Changeup.

 

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I would like to see him work on adding a slider to his repertoire as a fourth pitch.

This is Hader, so he had 3 pitches(again, from the outlet that thought most highly of him).

Misiorowski throws harder right now and he's a righty vs Hader being a lefty. They both threw from 3/4 arm slows, they both had overpowering stuff, they both had 4 pitches they could throw, but two particularly dominant ones.

They both have uncomfortable deliveries for hitters and are all knees and elbows coming at a hitter making it harder to pick up the ball. 

He was also compared to Hader in one pre-draft write-up saying "if his command doesn't improve, he has Josh Hader upside in relief."

[RedStickBrew]

Saw him pitch in AA a few times last year. He needs better command, reminds me of this guy