Should the Brewers Spin the Block with Carlos Santana?

[Jason Wang]

The Brewers have merely dipped their toes in the free-agent waters this offseason, and they still have plenty of gaps in their roster. Could one of their first moves be to reunite with an old friend?

Image courtesy of © Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

After hitting one of the coldest walk-off celebrations of the entire season, Carlos Santana was traded to the Brewers in exchange for shortstop prospect Jhonny Severino. Over his 226 plate appearances with the team, he slashed .249/.314/.459 for an OPS+ of 109. He was a huge offensive upgrade at first base. The team had tried trotting out all sorts of names, from Rowdy Tellez to Jon Singleton, but weren’t able to find stability until Santana’s arrival.

Despite his nickname of “Slamtana,” his 2023 Baseball Savant profile frames him as more of a disciplined player who avoided strikeouts and drew walks, rather than aimed for the moon with every swing. His walk rate (10.5%), chase rate (24%), and strikeout rate (16.8%) were all in the top quartile among qualified hitters. He also managed to accumulate 2 Outs Above Average (OAA) and 11 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS)--impressive defensive figures, especially given his age.  

He lacked the power of his younger days in Cleveland, but he was a welcome addition to a team whose production at first base totaled just a .681 OPS, 28th in MLB and besting only the Royals and the Padres. More importantly, his evenly-matched splits against all pitchers helped compensate for another weakness the team had, which was hitting against righties, against whom they posted a .695 OPS, 26th in MLB.

One of the main concerns with signing Santana is his age. He’ll be just a few days shy of 38 years old on Opening Day, and probably won’t be able to maintain above-average offensive production for very long, if at all. From 2010-2019, he averaged an impressive 121 OPS+ and received MVP votes in 2013 and 2019, while from 2020-2023, he averaged an OPS+ of just 94 across four different teams. His 2021 season with the Royals was particularly rough, as his .342 slugging percentage was the lowest for any season in his lengthy career. He managed to be on the wrong side of the Mendoza line with the Mariners in 2022. 

Nonetheless, the Brewers probably aren’t willing to take a risk on Rhys Hoskins returning to pre-injury form at an estimated cost of $36 million over two years, and there aren’t many younger, more capable free agents available. (Any Joey Gallo fans here?) Furthermore, unless the idea of Jake Bauers, Owen Miller, and Jahmai Jones tag-teaming first base outperforms all reasonable expectations, Santana could, at the very least, be a short-term holdover until more alluring names become available.

Within the farm system, Wes Clarke is slated to make his debut sometime in 2024 and had a great showing in Double A last year (and, most recently, in the Arizona Fall League). He could be a longer-term option, but without any experience at Triple A yet, it's hard to tell how his skills will match up against higher-quality opposition. The team’s other top prospects are primarily pitchers and shortstops, with Luke Adams as the only other first-base prospect ranked in the top 30. He’s a ways away from the show, with an ETA of 2026, and has yet to even reach High A.

Don’t expect him to fix all of the team’s problems and beat out the super-team Dodgers for the NL pennant in 2024, but a Santana signing could be a cheap and straightforward roster improvement heading into next year. 

Do you want to see a reunion between the Brewers and Santana? What price tag would make it unpalatable? Let's talk options.

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[Trax]

It would be a fallback move.  If nothing else developed only and he could be had for a reasonable 1 year deal.  I agree Wes Clarke will have to start the year at Triple A and go from there with a possible call up that could be permanent.  He has to prove he's there first though.  

I hope for 1 FA vet to be added that would make a difference at the plate and maybe 1 FA starting pitcher.

If not one or both, the Burnes and/or Adames trades would have to bring both help for the future and some help right now.

[Jason Wang]

2 hours ago, Trax said:

It would be a fallback move.  If nothing else developed only and he could be had for a reasonable 1 year deal.  I agree Wes Clarke will have to start the year at Triple A and go from there with a possible call up that could be permanent.  He has to prove he's there first though.  

I hope for 1 FA vet to be added that would make a difference at the plate and maybe 1 FA starting pitcher.

If not one or both, the Burnes and/or Adames trades would have to bring both help for the future and some help right now.

For sure. Given the moves made by other NL Central teams this year the Brewers are going to have to pursue a little more oomph if they wanna keep up.

[Rick Daltons Flamethrower]

Too early to move in the direction of Santana. Many other decisions including trading Burnes/Adames will speak into the team's needs. Still not quite sure why Yellich couldn't slide over to first. 

[Trax]

7 minutes ago, Rick Daltons Flamethrower said:

Too early to move in the direction of Santana. Many other decisions including trading Burnes/Adames will speak into the team's needs. Still not quite sure why Yellich couldn't slide over to first. 

Agreed.  My guess is Yelich told them to forget it about a move to 1st, otherwise it makes perfect sense if he could play there.

We have the young guns to fill the outfield, I'd just DH Yelly and find a right handed power bat to come off the bench.

Among a number of other moves they need to make for the now and future.......

[Michael Trzinski]

What about TB at first? You know, Tyler Black?

[patrickgpe]

Assuming he isn’t looking for a final payday. Sure, the caveat is than the brewers better be looking at getting a young 1st baseman than can help in 2025

[patrickgpe]

3 minutes ago, Michael Trzinski said:

What about TB at first? You know, Tyler Black?

I don’t too excited about 1st baseman that are shorter than 6 feet

[Jason Wang]

23 minutes ago, patrickgpe said:

I don’t too excited about 1st baseman that are shorter than 6 feet

short king hater smh.

But also a very good point. He has been spending the vast majority of his time in the hot corner in the minor leagues anyways so it looks like he's going to end up there when he gets called up.

[patrickgpe]

13 minutes ago, Jason Wang said:

short king hater smh.

But also a very good point. He has been spending the vast majority of his time in the hot corner in the minor leagues anyways so it looks like he's going to end up there when he gets called up.

I think he would be great at 2nd or 3rd on opening day in 2024 though. Or even ss if Adames is moved 

[BrewersRice]

I like Santana. He seems like a great teammate and better than what the Brewers have had.  If they keep Burnes, I would like to see Santana or Belt or Cooper. Most likely Santana wants closer to 8M, Brewers are likely waiting for that number to be closer to 6M and even then Brewers don’t like to spend that kind of money at 1B. Brewers are probably waiting a week or two for more clarity on if Teams are really going to go after Burnes or Adames. Some of the trade pieces may determine where they will spend money and may also determine if 2024 is a growth gap year.  

[Doug B]

Yelich should be 1B. He's 6'3" and has a noodle arm. This would free up the OF logjam. It won't happen of course because Yelich will refuse to play there and just kill the budget as a DH. 

[SF70]

Absolutely bring Santana back, and with or without Burnes. 

Even if Burnes is traded they conceivably could contend and Santana would help them do that. Disciplined hitter with pop, excellent defensively and a team leader.

 

[Tony C]

Santana on a 1 year deal around 5 or 6 mil/yr would be complementary to the team roster.  He played well as a Brewer. ,747 OPS,... not shabby. Granted he turns 38,... but his skill set at first base can't be ignored.