AAA roster (and discussion on new stateside roster limits)

[wiguy94]

Figured I would just throw this here. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/arizona-florida-complex-league-schedules-changing-for-2024/

 

ACL and FCL are starting 1 month sooner and ending before most draft picks actually will be signed. Does this have an impact on 165 man rosters? Are signed draft picks immediately signed to a roster?

[Ro Mueller]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Figured I would just throw this here. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/arizona-florida-complex-league-schedules-changing-for-2024/

 

ACL and FCL are starting 1 month sooner and ending before most draft picks actually will be signed. Does this have an impact on 165 man rosters? Are signed draft picks immediately signed to a roster?

Well, I was expecting the main system-wide cuts (making room for DSL->stateside promotions) to occur in the first week of June, but now it looks like it will be the first week of May instead.

It also nearly shuts the draft classes out of same-season Arizona Complex League ball (Boeve debuted there on July 28, Wilken July 24; the ACL season now ends on July 25). I guess this is meant to keep ACL ball focused on younger players.

But it's not a bad idea to shake things up. Promoted international signings will make their stateside debut earlier. Many drafted pitchers don't debut until the next season anyway, so this gives them a possible May ACL debut timeline, instead of waiting the extra month.

It basically shortens Extended Spring Training from 2 months to 1 month. Per the article, they'll now organize some unofficial games for draftees and other ACL guys in August.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Why do the have a "short season" anyways?  Why not go from May (or earlier) to the end of August/Sept? I can see starting earlier to allow international players a chance to play before the new draftees. But now the new draftees wont get into official games? Seems silly.

[Playing Catch]

Maybe it's to avoid the hottest months of the year?

[Ro Mueller]

37 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

Maybe it's to avoid the hottest months of the year?

Yeah, the article says that’s one benefit of the shift, particularly for Arizona, where the average high temperature in Phoenix in August is 104 degrees.

[CheeseheadInQC]

This feels like less of a big deal than it would have been before they moved the draft to later in the year.

Really for the Brewers the only of the four quadrants that it really impacts is high school hitters. The Boeve and Wilken types will still find their way to full season ball and I don’t believe any drafted or post draft free agent pitchers pitched even five innings in the ACL for Milwaukee last season.

[Ro Mueller]

One advantage of the May 4 Arizona Complex League start date:

Understanding that teams may release ~300 minor league players in late April / early May to accommodate the DSL->stateside promotions, this gives the released players a better chance to quickly join an independent league roster.

The 12-team AAPB and 16-team Frontier League both start their seasons on May 9 this year and the 12-team Pioneer League (lower quality) gets going on May 21, although the 10-team Atlantic League (typically slightly older players) commences on April 25.

[Ro Mueller]

Keeping Janson Junk in the fold should clear up the one gray area which AAA Nashville appeared to have: starting pitching.

• SP (6): One of Gasser/Hall/Ashby, Junk, McKendry, CF Rodriguez, Myers, Patrick
• RP (8): One of Bukauskas/Vieira, Hudson, Clarke, Paredes, Koenig, Zastryzny, Meeker, Yeager
• C (3): Quero, One of Haase/Nola, Navarreto
• IF (7): Dunn, Miller, Capra, Clarke, Dorrian, One of Collins/Zamora, One of Arroyo/Hernandez
• OF (4): Perkins, One of Roller/Jones, Hicklen, Campbell

We also typically stash up to 10 AAA players on various other lists to start the season - injured, development, temporarily inactive, ACL roster, etc. - e.g. (9) McGee, Crow, Shook, Middendorf, Thompson, Nola, Zamora, Hernandez, Jones.

[CheeseheadInQC]

2 hours ago, damuelle said:

Keeping Janson Junk in the fold should clear up the one gray area which AAA Nashville appeared to have: starting pitching.

• SP (6): One of Gasser/Hall/Ashby, Junk, McKendry, CF Rodriguez, Myers, Patrick
• RP (8): One of Bukauskas/Vieira, Hudson, Clarke, Paredes, Koenig, Zastryzny, Meeker, Yeager
• C (3): Quero, One of Haase/Nola, Navarreto
• IF (7): Dunn, Miller, Capra, Clarke, Dorrian, One of Collins/Zamora, One of Arroyo/Hernandez
• OF (4): Perkins, One of Roller/Jones, Hicklen, Campbell

We also typically stash up to 10 AAA players on various other lists to start the season - injured, development, temporarily inactive, ACL roster, etc. - e.g. (9) McGee, Crow, Shook, Middendorf, Thompson, Nola, Zamora, Hernandez, Jones.

I could see Holub and Chirino factoring into the triple-A discussion as well, depending on how other things shake out. That looks like a really deep team on paper (they could have seven 40-man position players starting on opening day), but there is a chance that injuries and opt-outs could reduce some of the excess numbers as well.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

There is a ton of good points in this podcast on the new 165 man org stateside roster and the new early start of the complex leagues.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fuFSlDJDQQ

Many of the points listed above are covered here:

• NRI flyers are fewer this year with reduced roster sizes
  • minor league 60 day IL not available until mid-march so cannot free up spots until near end of spring training
• May is cooler than August
• Evaluate international players more
• College draftees go to full season anyways (70% of hitters), 26% of prep hitters go to full season.
  • College pitchers 36%, prep pitchers 10-13%, so much less so 
• informal games likely played after complex league is over
• Rule 5 loophole for draft signing? July 25 - Aug 1st gap to gain an extra year
• MLB expansion

[Ro Mueller]

Interesting speculation by Curt Hogg on Brock Wilken possibly starting the season in AAA, but perhaps he's acting the part of overly-excited fan. 

 

[TURBO]

I don't think that would be because he is overly excited, I think Wilken is legit, and I still think he plays with the Brewers at some point this season!

[jay87shot]

I would still want Wilken to put in like 100 total abs in AA. In part to give him more time at 3rd. I wouldn't be upset if he essentially skips AA but I don't see the rush.

Is Bryan Hudson being stretched out to be a starter? He pitched 2 innings and over 40 pitches today seems like a lot this early on for a reliever.

[Ro Mueller]

6 hours ago, jay87shot said:

I would still want Wilken to put in like 100 total abs in AA. In part to give him more time at 3rd. I wouldn't be upset if he essentially skips AA but I don't see the rush.

Is Bryan Hudson being stretched out to be a starter? He pitched 2 innings and over 40 pitches today seems like a lot this early on for a reliever.

I’m not sure Hudson has enough different pitches to shift to starting, but it IS odd to see any reliever face 9 batters this early in spring. He hasn’t thrown more than 48 pitches in any major or minor league game since early 2019. I’ll content myself with being happy we have a material upgrade over Small, Claudio and Andrews. He attributed last year’s success in part to an improved slider. 

[jay87shot]

2 hours ago, damuelle said:

I’m not sure Hudson has enough different pitches to shift to starting, but it IS odd to see any reliever face 9 batters this early in spring. He hasn’t thrown more than 48 pitches in any major or minor league game since early 2019. I’ll content myself with being happy we have a material upgrade over Small, Claudio and Andrews. He attributed last year’s success in part to an improved slider. 

Baseball savant says he threw 87% fastball, 10% cutter, 3% slider in his 8 2/3 innings. I watched some of the game yesterday and he threw the slider quite a bit. 

[Ro Mueller]

As far as potential early health concerns, I’m guessing LHP Darrell Thompson, INF Freddy Zamora and C Brian Navarreto are each dealing with something, given their absence in being called to MLB spring training games.

We know Navarreto’s winter league season ended early due to a hand injury that he tried to suffer through for a few games. No idea about Thompson and Zamora.

RHPs Easton McGee and Coleman Crow each had Tommy John surgery (May and August 2023, respectively), so I don’t expect to see McGee until late this season and Crow until (maybe) winter ball.

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 hour ago, damuelle said:

As far as potential early health concerns, I’m guessing LHP Darrell Thompson, INF Freddy Zamora and C Brian Navarreto are each dealing with something, given their absence in being called to MLB spring training games.

We know Navarreto’s winter league season ended early due to a hand injury that he tried to suffer through for a few games. No idea about Thompson and Zamora.

RHPs Easton McGee and Coleman Crow each had Tommy John surgery (May and August 2023, respectively), so I don’t expect to see McGee until late this season and Crow until (maybe) winter ball.

Yah, given that practically the whole projected triple-A and double-A rosters plus a bunch of prospects who will start on one of the A-ball teams have been brought over, the ones who haven't kind of stick out like a sore thumb. Of the pitchers who haven't, the only other names I haven't seen from a double-A standpoint would be King (who someone said had a really good performance in a sim game), Gardner (they usually give the pitchers who threw in Australia a bit more time off, if I remember correctly) and Knarr (coming off injury).

[Jim Goulart]

1 hour ago, damuelle said:

As far as potential early health concerns, I’m guessing LHP Darrell Thompson, INF Freddy Zamora and C Brian Navarreto are each dealing with something, given their absence in being called to MLB spring training games. We know Navarreto’s winter league season ended early due to a hand injury that he tried to suffer through for a few games.

Navarreto's absence more glaring given that he was the lone catcher listed as a non-roster invitee. Fello NRI Wes Clarke was quick to see action in camp behind the plate in early workouts.

[Cambo888]

On 3/3/2024 at 11:31 AM, CheeseheadInQC said:

Yah, given that practically the whole projected triple-A and double-A rosters plus a bunch of prospects who will start on one of the A-ball teams have been brought over, the ones who haven't kind of stick out like a sore thumb. Of the pitchers who haven't, the only other names I haven't seen from a double-A standpoint would be King (who someone said had a really good performance in a sim game), Gardner (they usually give the pitchers who threw in Australia a bit more time off, if I remember correctly) and Knarr (coming off injury).

Gardner just arrived in Phoenix a day or so ago so still getting his break. King pitched live last Thursday (4 batters (2 big leaguers) with 2 k’s,  a pop up and ground ball to the SS.  He pitched an inning today (March 4) in scrimmage with 3 up and 3 down 2 k’s. Have not seen anything on Knarr yet. 

[Ro Mueller]

On 3/3/2024 at 5:17 AM, jay87shot said:

Is Bryan Hudson being stretched out to be a starter? He pitched 2 innings and over 40 pitches today seems like a lot this early on for a reliever.

Your Hudson case is growing: 38 pitches over 3 solid innings last night.

[Joseph Zarr]

On 3/4/2024 at 2:28 PM, Cambo888 said:

Gardner just arrived in Phoenix a day or so ago so still getting his break. King pitched live last Thursday (4 batters (2 big leaguers) with 2 k’s,  a pop up and ground ball to the SS.  He pitched an inning today (March 4) in scrimmage with 3 up and 3 down 2 k’s. Have not seen anything on Knarr yet. 

One of my more intriguing storylines (if I ever complete my next blog post before the season begins 😅)in 2024:

•  What do the Brewers actually have in Gardner? 

After a very brief hiccup in the transition to affiliated ball via the Gateway Grizzlies (Frontier League), Gardner very much settled in to owning that set-up and emergency role (should Shears or Smith falter) for Joe Ayrault and the T-Rats. Then Australia happened this past winter - all of us tracking the Brisbane season definitely took notice of his utter award-winning domination. The step up to the Southern League is a mighty challenging one. BUT, it certainly seems as tho Gardner found another level to his arsenal over the past six months. He already had fantastic shape to his breaking ball(s). I feel as tho, in the mold of former Brewers bulldog RHP Kent Hasler, Gardner could really make a name for himself within the org this season if he stays healthy and he gets good rolls of the dice.

** special mention to his Brisbane Bandits teammate 1B/DH Tayden Hall...that was a big step down under. Let's hope he carries it over stateside.

[Ro Mueller]

INF Freddy Zamora made his first known appearance of the spring in Tuesday’s Brewers game, which is great(!) but it also muddies the AAA roster waters a bit.

But it always works itself out.

Let’s see…projected starts per week:

- C: Quero 4, Clarke 2
- 1B Black: 4, Clarke 1, Miller 1
- 2B: Miller 3, Dunn 2, Collins 1
- 3B: Dunn 3, Black 2, Capra 1
- SS: Capra 3, Zamora 3
- OF: Wiemer 4, Perkins 3, Roller 3, Hicklen 3, Campbell 3, Collins 2
DH: Clarke 2, Wiemer 1, Perkins 1, Roller 1, Quero 1

Okay, no, this doesn’t work. And I didn’t even count Arroyo or Hernandez. 2-3 players will be put on the shelf, DFA’d, injured, take an early opt out or be sent to AA.

[Ro Mueller]

In respect of the 165-player stateside Minor League roster limit (excluding players on long-term injured lists):

• We presently have 34 players remaining in Major League camp, with an expectation that we'll place Devin Williams on the injured list, option 6 players to AAA and reassign the 1 remaining non-roster invitee (Arroyo). So that's 7 players coming to the Minor League side
• By perhaps no coincidence whatsoever, we've just placed 7 Minor League players on long-term injured lists today (Low, Knarr, Calzadilla, McGee, Crow, Morelo, Reyes)

That said, I don't actually see a real roster crunch until ACL ball starts in the first week of May, as that's when we'd formally promote about 15 players to stateside ball

[Jim Goulart]

2 hours ago, damuelle said:

We presently have 34 players remaining in Major League camp, with an expectation that we'll place Devin Williams on the injured list, option 6 players to AAA and reassign the 1 remaining non-roster invitee (Arroyo). So that's 7 players coming to the Minor League side

But players on the 40-man roster should not factor into the 165-limit equation, regardless of placement. At least that is believed to be the case. Please correct me if I'm mistaken.

[Ro Mueller]

2 hours ago, Mass Haas said:

But players on the 40-man roster should not factor into the 165-limit equation, regardless of placement. At least that is believed to be the case. Please correct me if I'm mistaken.

Thank you Mass Haas. Digging further, I think you’re correct as the definition of Domestic Reserve List apparently doesn’t include optioned players. Cool - so that’ll free up about 11 places (assuming 3 MLB 40-man roster players are on short-term injury stints).