What Should Brewers Fans Make of Jackson Chourio's Latest Prospect Ranking?

[Jason Wang]

In their recent list of the top 101 prospects in baseball (published Tuesday), Baseball Prospectus placed Jackson Chourio at No. 6. Is this too low, too high, or just right?

Image courtesy of © Stephanie Amador / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK

Jackson Chourio has been the crown jewel of the Brewers system almost since he signed as an international free agent in 2021. After performing exceptionally up through Double A, he signed a landmark eight-year, $82 million contract that set a new record for the largest ever given to a player yet to make his major-league debut. If he was ranked the sixth-best prospect in the game despite all of the hype, who were the five players above him?

It’s comes as no surprise that BP’s top-ranked prospect was Jackson Holliday, Baltimore’s first overall pick from the 2022 draft. He rocketed through the minor leagues last year, going from Single A to Triple A within the span of just one season and posting impressive numbers the entire way. He’s also ranked first by MLB.com, and comes from an impressive baseball family, so it’s not a controversial take to say that he deserved the top spot.

No. 2 man Wyatt Langford has yet to receive his call-up, but that’s not to say that he won't soon be ready, as he posted a cumulative 1.157 OPS across four levels of the minor leagues in 2023--all in an incredibly short amount of time, after being drafted out of Florida in July. In the Heat Check Prospect Podcast, BP senior prospect writer Jarrett Seidler even mentioned possibly bumping Langford to the top spot over Holliday. He praised Langford for having some of the best high-end exit velocities, great contact ability, and decent swing decisions, and only voiced concern over his questionable defense. It was noted that Langford is considered by some to be a plus center fielder, while others are already relegating him to be a career designated hitter.

Third-ranked Junior Caminero, from the Rays organization, was another potential dark-horse candidate to be ranked as the top prospect, as Seidler discussed his impressive TrackMan batted-ball data, having high-end exit velocities even slightly better than Langford. Seidler even went so far as to say that Jackson Chourio doesn’t do anything demonstrably better than Caminero. BP lead prospect writer Jeffrey Paternostro agreed that while Holliday is still currently the best prospect, Caminero has the highest ceiling of all 101 prospects on the list.

When it comes to Chourio, Seidler noted that while he did make big improvements at the plate, namely hitting for contact and hitting for power, he still has plate discipline issues and has produced offensive numbers that are a level below the likes of the aforementioned Holliday, Langford and Caminero. Despite this, Seidler personally felt that Chourio was deserving of the fourth spot, putting him above Evan Carter of the Rangers and Dylan Crews of the Nationals. 

Chourio spent the vast majority of 2023 in Double A and slashed .280/.336/.467. Those are respectable numbers, but nothing to write home about. His speed remains one of his top tools, as he stole 43 bases and played excellent, rangy defense, but his bat still leaves a bit to be desired. Nonetheless, he’s still just 19 years old and a No. 6 ranking isn’t bad, especially given the stiff competition at the top. 

It might be lower than some fans were expecting, but it’s still higher than notable prospects Paul Skenes (9), Ethan Salas (12), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (20). Chourio has his best years ahead of him and it will be exciting to see him grow into his role as the new face of the Brewers franchise. For $82 million before he's even taken the field, you want a superstar, but ranking sixth in this particular collection of top prospects--with an unusual mix, among them, of upside and high-level track record--is less of a knock than it might seem to be, or than it would be in another year.

How do you feel about BP’s ranking of Chourio? Should he have been higher or lower?

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[CheezWizHed]

What should we make of this?

Who cares about the ranking number?  Would being ranked #1 guarantee us a World Series victory? 

[biedergb]

Agree. Ranking lists are pure speculation. Some lists also want to stand out, as they can't all be the same. And results have been erratic in the past. Have a guy that most believe is top 10 overall is great, but some have faded in the past, some succeeded.

For example, the 2018 MLB top 100 had Ohtani, Acuna and Vlad Jr. Then Eloy and Gleyber who are good but maybe not top 10. Then Victor Robles, Forrest Whitley and Nick Senzel, while Burnes was 69 and Woodruff was 96. Of note Bauers, Bukaskas and Jahmai Jones were also on the top 100 list.

 

I think I am more concerned about how Chourio does in the bigs. If he can hold his own and improve, I'm super happy. If he becomes an all-star level CF, then I'm ecstatic.

[SF70]

It’s more about what Chourio did in his last 99 PA’s — 

AAA > 24PA .851 OPS / 1 K

WL > 75PA .984 OPS / 8 K

Only 9 K total / 9% K-rate 

He’s a top 3 prospect. I’d have him 2nd, just behind JH, and ahead of Caminaro, who has more power, but a worse hit tool, field & speed. Chourio is ready to face big-league pitching and succeed.

[Brewcrew82]

They've been the lowest on Chourio for a while now. Only had him at 10 last year and 7 midseason. They're more of a scout the statline-type outfit compared to BA and MLB. Interestingly, they had Corbin Carroll at 6 last year, while everyone else had him at 2 so kind of a similar situation here. 

To say Chourio doesn't do anything better than Caminero, though, is just plain wrong. First of all, he makes more contact than Caminero. And then there's the whole baserunning and fielding thing, which he does a lot better than Caminero. Only thing Caminero actually does demonstrably better than Chourio is hit the ball harder. 

Also, I don't know how you justify Crews over Chourio, if you're going to move Langford all the way up to 2 on the basis of his 40 game sample size. Chourio's statline in AA was way better, and at 19 compared to Crews' 21. 

It's not egregious, but the process is part of why I think BP is lower quality than BA, MLB, and even Fangraphs. 

[Jason Wang]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

They've been the lowest on Chourio for a while now. Only had him at 10 last year and 7 midseason. They're more of a scout the statline-type outfit compared to BA and MLB. Interestingly, they had Corbin Carroll at 6 last year, while everyone else had him at 2 so kind of a similar situation here. 

To say Chourio doesn't do anything better than Caminero, though, is just plain wrong. First of all, he makes more contact than Caminero. And then there's the whole baserunning and fielding thing, which he does a lot better than Caminero. Only thing Caminero actually does demonstrably better than Chourio is hit the ball harder. 

Also, I don't know how you justify Crews over Chourio, if you're going to move Langford all the way up to 2 on the basis of his 40 game sample size. Chourio's statline in AA was way better, and at 19 compared to Crews' 21. 

It's not egregious, but the process is part of why I think BP is lower quality than BA, MLB, and even Fangraphs. 

After listening to their explanation of the rankings, it did seem very subjective. Seidler himself said that he spent several months trying to put Langford at the top of the list but just couldn't find enough support for it. I think it's just good fun and if i I remember correctly, the authors acknowledged that they may be low on Chourio, especially given the size of his contract.

[GAME05]

Probably more accurate to just lump everyone into a tier, like "all-star", "good player," "util" and "slim chance". But of course that wouldn't stir up enough internet arguments as a ranking would.

[Jason Wang]

1 hour ago, GAME05 said:

Probably more accurate to just lump everyone into a tier, like "all-star", "good player," "util" and "slim chance". But of course that wouldn't stir up enough internet arguments as a ranking would.

Agree. Individual rankings tend to seemingly underrate a lot of guys since not everyone can be #1.

For example, Max Clark was clearly underrated at just #24 when he clearly has an 80-grade drip tool.