2024 Brewers Rotation

[KeithStone53151]

1 hour ago, monty57 said:

It'll be interesting to see what they do with Gasser. They could probably send him up and down as the 6th starter a few times to save a year's service time, but he's also one of the few guys we have who could probably handle a full season's worth of starts. 

I'll guess that unless he completely dominates spring training, they'll keep him down to start the season and bring him up for a spot start or two over the first few weeks before permanently putting him in the rotation. 

I think they'll give Hall every opportunity to start, but they may keep him on a strict limit early on, leading to some short starts, where one of our other starter/multi-inning guys can come in. Ashby may be the same way, but he also may need some IL time before he even sees the MLB field, so he's a question mark until he gets on the field. 

Ross has had tons of injuries and has never pitched over 108 innings (which was in '21 when he got his last injury that has kept him out since). 

There's just way too many ways things could go, but these things tend to sort themselves out over the month+ of spring training. 

There's a bit of a difference between Gasser and Burnes/Woodruff from a prospect caliber perspective. I think I'm a bit lower on Gasser than others, but he definitely doesn't have the arm talent of Burnes/Woodruff...I'd like to think that really isn't up for debate. He may end up being an effective starter, but not really the guy you focus on service time games with. Especially considering his age...might be a different story if he was 21/22.

[brewerfan82]

Just for some extra context, while Gasser's 3.79 ERA and 1.28 WHIP sound okay and not remarkable at first glance, here's how his numbers compare to the 38 AAA pitchers that threw at least 100 IP last year:

• 3.79 ERA (2nd)
• 3.71 FIP (2nd)
• 4.52 xFIP (4th)
• 1.28 WHIP (4th)
• .217 AVG (4th)
• 166 Ks (1st)
• 11.04 K/9 (1st)
• 3.33 BB/9 (13th)
• 3.32 K/BB (2nd)
• 0.80 HR/9 (4th)

Considering as a 24 year old he was also still 2.9 years younger than the average AAA player, that ain't bad.

Also noteworthy, here are Burnes' and Woodruff's numbers in AAA:

• Burnes (as a 23 and 24 year old) - 5.88 ERA, 1.505 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 101.0 IP
• Woodruff (mainly as a 24 and 25 year old with a few innings at 29 and 30) - 4.21 ERA, 1.364 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 154.0 IP

[sveumrules]

30 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

3.79 ERA, 1.278 WHIP...those aren't "beating on the door" numbers.

International League was brutal for pitchers last year. League average ERA was 5.18 and league average WHIP was at 1.536.

There were only 22 pitchers who threw at least 100 IP, but among that group Gasser ranked 2nd in ERA and 4th in WHIP. His 3.32 K/BB ratio and 3.71 FIP also both ranked 2nd.

One of the guys with a lower WHIP was Evan McKendry who we acquired from TBR for Alex Jackson.

[monty57]

35 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

There's a bit of a difference between Gasser and Burnes/Woodruff from a prospect caliber perspective. I think I'm a bit lower on Gasser than others, but he definitely doesn't have the arm talent of Burnes/Woodruff...I'd like to think that really isn't up for debate. He may end up being an effective starter, but not really the guy you focus on service time games with. Especially considering his age...might be a different story if he was 21/22.

Yeah, MLB.com is normally pretty flowery in their prospect write-ups, and they concluded Gasser's piece with "He's close to establishing himself as a back-end starter and gives Milwaukee a much-needed promising lefty arm." 

If they're saying back-end starter, they're not expecting a top-of-the-rotation guy. He should still be a solid part of the rotation for years to come, and there is value to that. If they feel that the team's chances are much better if he's in the rotation all year,  then he'll be there.

But, seven years of service is better than six, even if he's a mid-rotation guy and not a top-of-the-rotation guy, so that's why I thought it would be interesting to see if they find a way to keep him down long enough to gain that extra year.

[KeithStone53151]

3 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

International League was brutal for pitchers last year. League average ERA was 5.18 and league average WHIP was at 1.536.

There were only 22 pitchers who threw at least 100 IP, but among that group Gasser ranked 2nd in ERA and 4th in WHIP. His 3.32 K/BB ratio and 3.71 FIP also both ranked 2nd.

One of the guys with a lower WHIP was Evan McKendry who we acquired from TBR for Alex Jackson.

That's fair context to a degree. Why was IL so tough on pitchers? I know I've heard the PCL is very hitter friendly, but haven't heard the same of the IL. Him ranking well amongst his peers at this level is not necessarily an indicator of success at the next level. Maybe there just weren't a lot of quality arms at that level this year, too many Ethan Small's. I don't know the answer to that honestly, but I'm not going to simply look at how he rated against his peers at a level as an indicator of success when the numbers in general looked solid/unspectacular without more context. Hopefully, the answer is there were a lot of demon hitting prospects in the IL driving up the pitching numbers. But if he's only doing solid against AAAA hitters...it's not going to be good when he starts facing Arenado and Goldschmidt.

[Jopal78]

52 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

That's fair context to a degree. Why was IL so tough on pitchers? I know I've heard the PCL is very hitter friendly, but haven't heard the same of the IL. Him ranking well amongst his peers at this level is not necessarily an indicator of success at the next level. Maybe there just weren't a lot of quality arms at that level this year, too many Ethan Small's. I don't know the answer to that honestly, but I'm not going to simply look at how he rated against his peers at a level as an indicator of success when the numbers in general looked solid/unspectacular without more context. Hopefully, the answer is there were a lot of demon hitting prospects in the IL driving up the pitching numbers. But if he's only doing solid against AAAA hitters...it's not going to be good when he starts facing Arenado and Goldschmidt.

I don’t think the league is tough on pitchers, rather the pitchers in AAA are  nearly all depth/organization soldier type players instead of “prospects”. There may be a point with Gasser too. None of Woodruff, Burnes or Peralta pitched more than 78 innings at AAA before debuting in the majors. Zach Davies pitched 128 AAA innings before seeing the majors. Gasser is already at 161 innings and that is even when the major league club was turning to Julio Teheran, Rea, etc for starts 

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, KeithStone53151 said:

That's fair context to a degree. Why was IL so tough on pitchers? I know I've heard the PCL is very hitter friendly, but haven't heard the same of the IL. Him ranking well amongst his peers at this level is not necessarily an indicator of success at the next level. Maybe there just weren't a lot of quality arms at that level this year, too many Ethan Small's. I don't know the answer to that honestly, but I'm not going to simply look at how he rated against his peers at a level as an indicator of success when the numbers in general looked solid/unspectacular without more context. Hopefully, the answer is there were a lot of demon hitting prospects in the IL driving up the pitching numbers. But if he's only doing solid against AAAA hitters...it's not going to be good when he starts facing Arenado and Goldschmidt.

Automatic Strike Zone in AAA was smaller and less forgiving than umps zones specifically at the top of the zone. More BB's, more hits = more runs and runners on base

[Brewcrew82]

3 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

3.79 ERA, 1.278 WHIP...those aren't "beating on the door" numbers. I recognize his good k rate and that his bb rate improved in the second half. I'll also add, the second half improvement helps his case a lot. I'd feel a lot better going into the season if we had one more established arm, and Gasser was basically competing with Junis/Rea/Hall/Ashby's health...for the last 2 spots. Gasser opening in AAA temporarily wouldn't be the end of the world if he didn't win the competition with those other 3 guys, and frankly him not beating out those guys would say a lot anyways. As is, we kinda need those guys to fill 3 spots and that's a very optimistic outlook. 

Might want to take a look at the offensive environment in the international league last year...

I don't think Gasser is going to make the OD roster simply due to service time manipulation, but there's no reason to not have him starting many games for the team this year. The projections have him at Adrian Houser-level production in his rookie season. 

[KeithStone53151]

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Might want to take a look at the offensive environment in the international league last year...

I don't think Gasser is going to make the OD roster simply due to service time manipulation, but there's no reason to not have him starting many games for the team this year. 

Others have pointed to the fact that Gasser was better than most of his peers in the IL. That said, that's only a piece to the puzzle and isn't necessarily an indicator of future success...nor does it scream "beating down the door". Also, why is everyone so obsessed with considering service time manipulation? Gasser projects as a back-end starter. it's one thing to manipulate service time on burnes, woodruff, chourio, etc...budding stars. It's really shouldn't be a huge focus for a guy like Gasser, who if he falls even a little short of his projection...probably will get cut before he maxes out his service time.  What's next, should we send down monasterio to make sure we manipulate his service time and get 7 years out of him instead of 6? 

[KeithStone53151]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Automatic Strike Zone in AAA was smaller and less forgiving than umps zones specifically at the top of the zone. More BB's, more hits = more runs and runners on base

Interesting, tough to quantify the impact but seems reasonable to have had an impact. I wonder if there are any examples of good prospects pitching half or a portion of a season in the IL last year and then half a season at the mlb level...and how they translated. That would probably be the best indicator even if the sample is probably pretty small if it even exists.

[Brewcrew82]

13 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Others have pointed to the fact that Gasser was better than most of his peers in the IL. That said, that's only a piece to the puzzle and isn't necessarily an indicator of future success...nor does it scream "beating down the door". Also, why is everyone so obsessed with considering service time manipulation? Gasser projects as a back-end starter. it's one thing to manipulate service time on burnes, woodruff, chourio, etc...budding stars. It's really shouldn't be a huge focus for a guy like Gasser, who if he falls even a little short of his projection...probably will get cut before he maxes out his service time.  What's next, should we send down monasterio to make sure we manipulate his service time and get 7 years out of him instead of 6? 

Have you seen the going cost for effective starting pitching in the FA market this year?

7 years of even a back end starter may not be gold, but it's like silver. 

[Brewcrew82]

Here's Gasser's 3 year ZIPS projection, which is actually pretty conservative in terms of IP. It's not Burnes or Woodruff level, but it's incredibly valuable for a SM team like the Brewers. 

[KeithStone53151]

9 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Have you seen the going cost for effective starting pitching in the FA market this year?

7 years of even a back end starter may not be gold, but it's like silver. 

How many guys that project to the back end of a rotation, actually hit their projection and maintain it for 7 years? You know who else projected to the back end of a rotation...Ethan Small, Adrian Houser, Eric Lauer. It's fairly uncommon for back-end rotation types to hold on to their back of the rotation role for 7 years...planning for it is stupid. I get it, a lot of people want to look smart by being the one to point out service time manipulation...it simply doesn't or shouldn't apply in all cases.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

1 minute ago, KeithStone53151 said:

How many guys that project to the back end of a rotation, actually hit their projection and maintain it for 7 years? You know who else projected to the back end of a rotation...Ethan Small, Adrian Houser, Eric Lauer. It's fairly uncommon for back-end rotation types to hold on to their back of the rotation role for 7 years...planning for it is stupid. I get it, a lot of people want to look smart by being the one to point out service time manipulation...it simply doesn't or shouldn't apply in all cases.

I'm not exactly sure that ""he's close to establishing himself as a back-end starter" means that is his career ceiling. I read that exactly how it reads. Back-end starter in 2024. 

[KeithStone53151]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Automatic Strike Zone in AAA was smaller and less forgiving than umps zones specifically at the top of the zone. More BB's, more hits = more runs and runners on base

I did this fairly quickly, there might be better examples. I found a handful of guys that were at least decent or better prospects in their respective systems and had at least 5 starts at each level(i think all had at least 10). I also added Gasser for a comparable, who obviously didn't pitch at the mlb level. The big outlier is Olson, aside from him...everyone was a fair amount worse in almost all metrics from AAA to MLB. Sure, a low-mid 4s era has plenty of value...but let's not kid ourselves that Gasser is beating down the door here. He's probably ready, but he's not a Burnes or Woodruff that you kick someone to the curb to make room for.

[KeithStone53151]

5 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I'm not exactly sure that ""he's close to establishing himself as a back-end starter" means that is his career ceiling. I read that exactly how it reads. Back-end starter in 2024. 

Gasser has a low 90s fastball and currently 1 plus secondary pitch. That's a pretty back-end starter arsenal. Yes, if he improves his arsenal he could be better. I'm not going to bet on a 24, going on 25 year old adding a ton more velocity or significantly improving pitches...which is his primary path beyond back of rotation starter. Burnes did it(effectively added 3 pitches in one offseason), it was incredibly impressive and he proved it can be done...but he's the exception, not the rule...and he has incredible arm talent.

Bottom line, thinking about 2030 with Gasser is quite foolish and shouldn't be a consideration at this point. Next year, thinking about 2031 with Miz may very well be a consideration the way things are trending.

[Brewcrew82]

43 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

How many guys that project to the back end of a rotation, actually hit their projection and maintain it for 7 years? You know who else projected to the back end of a rotation...Ethan Small, Adrian Houser, Eric Lauer. It's fairly uncommon for back-end rotation types to hold on to their back of the rotation role for 7 years...planning for it is stupid. I get it, a lot of people want to look smart by being the one to point out service time manipulation...it simply doesn't or shouldn't apply in all cases.

First of all, maybe the Brewers think he can be more than a 5 starter....BA has Gasser as a top 100 prospect for a reason.

We're also talking about a mere couple of weeks here to gain an extra year of control, which is quite valuable (particularly so for a small market franchise), despite you trying to pretend otherwise. 

[KeithStone53151]

7 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

First of all, maybe the Brewers think he can be more than a 5 starter....BA has Gasser as a top 100 prospect for a reason.

We're also talking about a mere couple of weeks here to gain an extra year of control, which is quite valuable (particularly so for a small market franchise), despite you trying to pretend otherwise. 

What's the present value of maybe 20%(odds we keep him for his entire team control) of $10 million in 2030?

Also, don't think I missed the fact that you tried subtly shifting my stance from "back-end starter" to "number 5 starter". I know doing so improves your argument but there's a difference between back-end(implying #4/5) and number 5.

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

What's the present value of maybe 20%(odds we keep him for his entire team control) of $10 million in 2030?

Okay, 4-5 starter. Doesn't make a difference to me. The point remains: it is, quite possible, that the Brewers think they can get more from Gasser than that. There's a reason the Brewers were fine trading Hader despite getting a .5 season of Rogers, Lamet (who they immediately DFA'd), and Ruiz (who they proceeded to trade in the offseason). 

Even if we don't keep him and he's only a 4-5 starter, that's still trade value like with Houser that we can use to get value in return...

Conversely, what's the cost of holding him down for a couple weeks....Pretty much zero. 

[monty57]

1 hour ago, KeithStone53151 said:

 What's next, should we send down monasterio to make sure we manipulate his service time and get 7 years out of him instead of 6? 

Monasterio has 0.128 years of service time, so if it he is worthy of keeping, the Brewers have him for an extra year.

But, he's probably slated for a reserve/utility role, and those guys generally aren't kept around if they start getting paid seven figures in their arby years. 

A starting pitcher who remains a starting pitcher through his pre-arby and arby years would be worthy of keeping around the extra year. No one is talking Super Two, which would mean keeping him down until June or so. You get the extra year after a few weeks in the minors. With a pitcher starting every 5-6 days, that could be done pretty easily by starting the year with him down, bringing him up for a spot start and sending him right back down until he's needed again. When he's been down a few weeks (while getting a few starts in the majors) you bring him up permanently. It sucks for the players that this is in the CBA, but teams do it all the time to gain the extra year. 

Why I brought it up is that he's one of the few guys who should be able to handle a full season's worth of starts. If they do what I described above, then it's only being done to gain the extra year. They'll say otherwise, but that'll be the reason.

You could be right that the Brewers say it's not worth it, and keep him in the rotation the whole year. I'd be fine with that, but service time is something to think about.

[KeithStone53151]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

Even if we don't keep him that's still trade value like with Houser that we can use to get value in return...

Conversely, what's the cost of holding him down for a couple weeks....

I didn't realize that Taylor was gone until I checked on this. So Taylor(who has more value than Houser) and Houser combined got us a lotto ticket arm that won't pitch this year after coming of TJ. I don't think Houser having 2 years of team control vs 1 really changed anything here. You're talking about a miniscule amount of value here. The cost of holding him down a couple weeks is also miniscule, aside from the fact that I don't know how in the world we're going to fill innings without him in the rotation unless we bring in someone else or ashby is healthy. But that's really not the point, the likely value of maintaining that extra year of team control is so miniscule(and reasonably likely to be zero) that it shouldn't be a consideration.

[KeithStone53151]

2 minutes ago, monty57 said:

You could be right that the Brewers say it's not worth it, and keep him in the rotation the whole year. I'd be fine with that, but service time is something to think about.

I wasn't being serious about Monasterio. I see both of your point on Gasser but simply disagree. It shouldn't be a consideration at all in my opinion considering the range of outcomes and potential value in 2030. The only focus should be 2024 considering Gasser, we'll see what happens.

[Brewcrew82]

14 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I didn't realize that Taylor was gone until I checked on this. So Taylor(who has more value than Houser) and Houser combined got us a lotto ticket arm that won't pitch this year after coming of TJ. I don't think Houser having 2 years of team control vs 1 really changed anything here. You're talking about a miniscule amount of value here. The cost of holding him down a couple weeks is also miniscule, aside from the fact that I don't know how in the world we're going to fill innings without him in the rotation unless we bring in someone else or ashby is healthy. But that's really not the point, the likely value of maintaining that extra year of team control is so miniscule(and reasonably likely to be zero) that it shouldn't be a consideration.

1) Houser has only one year of control remaining. Otherwise, he would've been a FA this offseason, in which case we wouldn't have gotten anything for him...

2) I don't quite know what you're talking about with Taylor having more value than Houser. This shows the opposite....https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator

3) It's still value and is even more valuable to a small market franchise such as the Brewers that cannot afford to spend tens of millions on mediocre starters like many teams did this winter in FA. You should look up the story of Junior Caminero. Rays ended up getting a top 5 prospect in all of baseball for someone with "miniscule value". Not that the Brewers pulled off something similar with Coleman Crow or are likely to if/when they trade Gasser, but you still don't just sacrifice value because a guy isn't a Burnes or a Woodruff. 

4) Finally, filling innings for two weeks while Gasser is in AAA is pretty straightforward actually: Peralta, Miley, Junis, Hall, Rea, Ross....

[KeithStone53151]

8 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

4) Finally, filling innings for two weeks while Gasser is in AAA is pretty straightforward actually: Peralta, Miley, Junis, Hall, Rea, Ross....

You have 6 question marks and Peralta...you missed Ashby. You're also literally 7 deep heading into spring training, with 2 being relievers last year, two coming off serious injury, one having a breakout after being unsuccessful for a long time, Miley who is very injury prone, and then Peralta who has also been injury prone. The odds of getting to opening day with 5 healthy starters aren't as high as they should be...I feel like in most cases we have at least 4-5 reserve options or not a rotation full of concerns. Beyond health, the odds of having 5 starters capable of going 5 innings a start with an ERA under 5 on opening day seems close to zero at this point

[Brewcrew82]

26 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

You have 6 question marks and Peralta...you missed Ashby. You're also literally 7 deep heading into spring training, with 2 being relievers last year, two coming off serious injury, one having a breakout after being unsuccessful for a long time, Miley who is very injury prone, and then Peralta who has also been injury prone. The odds of getting to opening day with 5 healthy starters aren't as high as they should be...I feel like in most cases we have at least 4-5 reserve options or not a rotation full of concerns. Beyond health, the odds of having 5 starters capable of going 5 innings a start with an ERA under 5 on opening day seems close to zero at this point

The key is it's only for two weeks.....

The projections see all these guys having ERAs well under 5. https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP