Trading Corbin Burnes Isn't the End of the World

[Ryan Pollak]

Is it really time to start panicking? While Corbin Burnes may be gone, this Brewers team is still ready to compete this season. 

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Well, it finally happened. When the Brewers were bounced from the playoffs, speculation started amongst fans about whether the Brewers were going to trade their former Cy Young Award-winning pitcher, Corbin Burnes. As the months passed, the rumors kept swirling, between: what is he worth? what teams would be interested? and when will it happen?

When the front office signed Rhys Hoskins last week, fans started believing the Brewers were going to run it back with their stars on expiring contracts. It’s fair to say the narrative has changed, yet again.

Thursday night, the Brewers traded Burnes to the Orioles, and got a decent haul for him. The gut reaction from the fanbase seems to be, “The Crew are going to rebuild. Looks like they are selling off everyone. Our run at a World Series is over.”

Not so fast, everyone. Personally, I’ve accepted Burnes could soon be gone since the middle of the 2023 season. However, I believe this team can still compete, and trading Burnes is not the end of the world. Don’t believe me? Let’s dive into this trade and what this move could mean.

Why Trade Burnes Now?
This trade was somewhat inevitable, and it’s important for the long-term health of the team. This team is set to compete for the division title. So why trade away their best asset? For starters, Burnes was in his last year of club control. Like most of the fan base, the Brewers knew it would be hard to keep their ace beyond the 2024 season.

At the very least, the Crew could’ve kept Burnes for the season, offered him a qualifying offer, and received a second-round compensatory pick from the team that signed him. The team wasn’t going to trade away Burnes unless they get back value like that pick.

Had the Brewers decided to wait until the trade deadline to make a move, they'd have assumed a good deal of risk. Burnes could get injured in the middle of the season, providing no value in a trade. In addition, the team acquiring him wouldn’t be able to offer the qualifying offer to Burnes, dinging his value.

By trading for Burnes now, the Orioles still can get a compensatory pick at the end of the season when they lose him in free agency next year. The Brewers felt they got the best value they could get in a trade, and it was probably the best offer they got from the other teams this offseason. But did they actually get enough for the star pitcher, and why are some fans against this package?

What Did They Get?
The Brewers received left-handed pitcher DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz (MLB Pipeline's No. 63 prospect) for Burnes. In addition, they got the 34^th overall pick in the 2024 MLB draft, a competitive-balance pick (the only kind allowed to be traded).

The Brewers essentially traded a second-round pick in 2025 for a first-round pick in 2024, plus prospects who can be on the team for up to six full seasons. Sure, Burnes may be worth more than Brewers fans believe. But with Burnes not willing to sign an extension until he hits free agency, teams don’t feel his one year of service will be enough to give away value commensurate with his name.

Hall has been part of the Orioles organization since being drafted 21^st overall in the 2017 MLB Draft. He was called up in August 2022 to make his debut as a starter. After a rough debut, he was shuttled back down to Triple A to develop as a bullpen arm. In 2023, Hall recorded a 3-0 record with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 18 appearances.

Ortiz was a fourth-round pick in the 2019 Draft, and was the sixth-ranked prospect in their farm system. He is considered a plus defender and can play any position on the infield. Last year in Triple-A Norfolk, he hit .321/.378/.507, with nine home runs and 58 RBI in 88 games. Ortiz has tested the waters in the big leagues, but has been sent down on three separate occasions.

For more details on Ortiz and Hall, check back later today and this weekend, as we'll have breakdowns of each from Jamie Cameron and Spencer Michaelis. To complete this trade, Ethan Small was designated for assignment.

What Happens Now?
Trading away Burnes makes the starting rotation a little more interesting. Without Burnes, the rotation is projected to be a combination of Freddy Peralta, Wade Miley, Colin Rea, Aaron Ashby, Joe Ross and/or Hall. That still doesn’t seem too bad for a team that traded away its best starting pitcher.

If Peralta and Miley put up similar numbers as the ones they recorded last year, the Crew will still have a two-headed monster in the rotation. If Ashby or Ross don’t cut it, the team can stretch out Hall or even add Robert Gasser to the rotation.

As for the infield, Ortiz is just more competition for Brice Turang and Andruw Monasterio. While none of these guys’ names jump off a paper, they are all still young players with six years of club control and multiple minor league options left. Give them time to develop, and they might be a young force to be reckoned with. If they play their cards right, all these players can make the Opening Day roster.

The Brewers could also still add players from the free-agent market. Burnes agreed to a $15.637-million salary this season. After the trade made Thursday, the Brewers' payroll has dropped to $101.7 million, according to FanGraphs. Around this time last year, the team was at around $120 million. The team has some wiggle room to sign another player or two at the last second. It could be another starting pitcher, or an infielder if they don’t feel the prospects are ready.

What About Beyond 2024?
Despite trading Burnes, this team is still in the playoff hunt. But does a trade move like this foreshadow what could happen to the likes of Willy Adames and Devin Williams?

Like Burnes, Adames is set to be a free agent after this season. When we last heard of a potential Adames trade, Jon Morosi of MLB Network stated talks were quiet. With Turang, Monasterio, Oliver Dunn, Vinny Capra and now Ortiz all on the roster, the team could be ready to move on from their star shortstop.

But it isn’t exactly inevitable. All offseason, the front office has maintained that the team is planning to compete this season. As it currently stands, it seems Adames is part of the picture. Same goes for Williams, who is in the same position Josh Hader was in when the Brewers traded him in 2022.

While there are plenty of pitchers who can take over for the closer role, Williams is another cog that makes this team elite enough to win the division. Abner Uribe and Joel Payamps are great players who can finish games for this team.

It seems the team is ready for all avenues. If it doesn’t look promising this season, the team can start a teardown mid-season. As it stands, the Brewers could still be a favorite to win the division. William Contreras, Sal Frelick, Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio are a promising core, here for the long haul. Adding Hoskins and promising young prospects, and you are a threat for years to come.

While Burnes is now gone, there is still a lot of potential left with this team. It just had to be done, to get the best value possible and to give the prospects a chance to showcase their skills. We are going to be looking at a different Milwaukee Brewers, and the new iteration hasn’t even reached its final form.

What do you think of the Corbin Burnes trade? What do you think the Brewers are going to do next? Will the Brewers start rebuilding? Will the Brewers make one last push? Let us know in the comments.

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[jay87shot]

I think most fans would concede we knew this was going to happen if not in the offseason probably at the deadline. I think the slight disappointment is that we didn't get 1 shiny stud prospect. If this was Basallo, Hall, and a lesser prospect everyone could dream on the 40 HR potential and upside. Ortiz is going to be are really solid player but realistically a guy who hits .260-.300 doesn't walk or strikeout a ton, hits 10-15 HR's and doesn't steal a ton of bases. My mind is picturing JJ Hardy with less pop (modern day Nico Hoerner). That is a lot of value, he just isn't a sparkle as everyone hoped.

[rolafaive]

It had to happen, you could not wait until July, Burnes was not happy with the team ever since the Hader trade, and the haggling over 250k last arbitration didn't sit well at all, could have been a mental issue for a down year last year. A Boris client meant there was no way in hell Brewers could afford this guy and he was headed to free agency. Was a good trade because Baltimore may have just acquired a rental.

[MJLiverock]

Sure it was inevitable that they wouldn't pay Burnes and would trade him.  It's part of the discouraging spiral of being a Brewer fan.  The owner has money to invest in other sporting ventures, just not the baseball team.  The team under current ownership and baseball revenue rules isn't' going to be a serious contender and hearing Arnold's comments about spending and the actions of the team the past few years solidifies it.  They built a great pitching staff and paired it with a mediocre offense with massive holes and were exposed by playoff teams after shooting for their bites at the apple as a bottom rung playoff team.   Even this article touting Frelic and Tourang as bright spots (more sub 700 and maybe sub 600 OPS for Turang)?

Now hoping to tread water and not really improving they will move forward.  They gave up a pitcher who will likely be a 3-4 WAR guy going forward and acquired to players who will likely be 1-2 WAR guys, a slick fielding, sub 700 OPS SS and a reliever with possible command issues they can fix in the lab.  They'll get rid of Adames now and removes his 3-4 WAR stats and Williams from the pen and get some prospects for down the road, the sum will be treading water in the next couple years, then the prospects from the Adames and Williams trade will arrive in time for Yelich to be gone, catching getting expensive and traded off, Peralta traded off and in the end the same overall mid level talent as a team with a few bright spots but too many holes to really be a serious WS contender.  The team will say they are competing and the local media will tell us how great it is the strive for 84 wins and a wildcard shot in the expanded playoff format.  In the end it is all just shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic.  The next year or 2 will look like they'll sub in the 3-4 WAR from the 2 new guys give up 4-6 WAR in Williams and Adames and hope to get 2-3 WAR from Gasser and in the end stay Meh.

 

[sveumrules]

35 minutes ago, MJLiverock said:

The owner has money to invest in other sporting ventures, just not the baseball team.

They’ve run franchise record payrolls in three of the last four full seasons - 2019, 2022 and 2023 with a global pandemic in the middle.

Their OD payroll ranks have come in between 17th and 20th for the last five years in the 30th ranked market. Where do you believe they would need to rank to show an appropriate level of investment?

They also have invested heavily in DR/VEN building a new academy and infrastructure from the ground up that has already started paying off with a guy like Uribe, Chourio up next (who got a pretty good investment from Mark A), then Quero, and Lara, etc.

40 minutes ago, MJLiverock said:

The team will say they are competing and the local media will tell us how great it is the strive for 84 wins and a wildcard shot in the expanded playoff format.

In 2018, 2022 and 2033 they won the division at 96, 95 and 92 wins.

Their only Wild Card year they came in at 89 and would have knocked out the eventual WS champs if Hader got his outs.

The team has always said they’re playing to win the division and have been pretty good at it. They won 86 in their down year.

[MJLiverock]

Yep they had the best pitching of their entire history, managed to do well in a garbage division and bow out of the expanded playoffs with a whimper each time with well known offensive issues.  This was the ceiling, they are trying to maybe strive to get close but my guess is they are a mid 80 win team for now, trending down but certainly not improving on where they were which is the whole point - -they just hope to be average or slightly above if all goes well and they hit on reclamation projects and young guys perform better earlier before they trade of established guys and rinse and repeat.

Did Attansio not just spend money elsewhere vs. resigning his ace pitcher?  Or did they trade the ace for what they hope can provide equal WAR at a lower cost. - - i.e. not improving.  Arnold basically just said they aren't going to spend more and the new guys just made it so they can jettison Adames and Williams without paying them. Peralta is next.  None of these moves raise the ceiling of the team, it is just hope of getting equal replacement value in the future so no forward upward progress occurs.  They aren't going to get better without keeping some established guys and letting the young guys improve around them.  The Cubs won't be terrible forever, STL won't either.

[Joseph Zarr]

Burnesy conceded 4 or more runs in 9 of his 33 total outings in 2023. He closed out his season with a 6-pack and then a 4-pack in the playoffs. He wasn't an Ace. This was a fair package. It was a smart trade. This has nothing to do with the perpetual and nauseating Mark is cheap storyline. It once again has to do with smart baseball decisions. IF one is going to complain about this trade, I would move their attention to the topic the Brewers ultimately held onto Burnes too long. But, if they had traded him earlier the fans would then complain they traded their Ace and ruined the Brewers chances. It's a No Win situation for management and the personnel department. But, this was the right organizational decision at this time. I don't know why that's a hard thing to grapple with. I really don't. 

[Doug B]

No panic. I think they went from an 80+/- win team to a 76+/- win team. Does it really matter? The future looks better. 

[MJLiverock]

In what way does the future look better?  How have they raised their ceiling from what was a top level pitching staff and mediocre offense leading to a fringe playoff team?

If all goes well with the replacements I see nothing that makes the team any better than what they had and likely will get worse as they let more established vets go and roll the dice with prospects, eventually they will miss badly on the return and then the truly bad years kick in.

My belief is we've seen the high water mark and nothing has raised the level.

[Joseph Zarr]

2 minutes ago, MJLiverock said:

In what way does the future look better?  How have they raised their ceiling from what was a top level pitching staff and mediocre offense leading to a fringe playoff team?

If all goes well with the replacements I see nothing that makes the team any better than what they had and likely will get worse as they let more established vets go and roll the dice with prospects, eventually they will miss badly on the return and then the truly bad years kick in.

My belief is we've seen the high water mark and nothing has raised the level.

Serious question: how long have you been a fan of the Milwaukee Brewers? Do you not remember the 1990's? We are in the absolute best prolonged era of being Brewers fans. Why are you choosing to look at the team with a glass is half empty approach? We have witnessed the evolution to a top 5 Farm system in two years. We have witnessed the development of an intrepid and uber-talented personnel department do their thing time and time again. We have witnessed an awesome renewed commitment with improved results internationally. We are witnessing an organization who time and again demonstrates they are one of the most creative and cutting edge in identifying market inefficiencies. We have witnessed one of the most exciting MLB drafts ever as Brewers fans just this past season. There is just so much to be grateful for and so much to look forward to. And, here you are for some reason forecasting their demise? Why, I ask you? Why would you place your emphasis here? I invite you to enjoy the ride. 

[MJLiverock]

I have been a fan for a long time, remember watching the Brewers clinch the AL in Baltimore in '82 and running home from school to see how the afternoon WS games played out.  Is that long enough for you?  

I also remember the countless times the next batch of prospects is going to get them over the hump, it is always next year.  I choose reality - -I ask in what way does always giving up proven talent vs. paying them and getting back lottery tickets that if they hit just equal the talent you gave up provide evidence the team will be better?  This is the genesis of the rearranging deck chairs, just like the Bucks of the Herb Kohl era.    Nothing has raised the ceiling here and when Adames and Williams are let go they will again point to some down the road improvement only to have those players come of age as another set of Vets are let go- -how many times do we have to see this play out?

[David Crawford]

It is interesting to read the 'sky is falling' takes, sad but interesting.  Corbin Burnes was traded wisely by Matt Arnold.  Look at the era of David Stearns/Matt Arnold transactions and you will see they win 80+% of those deals.  Even the Josh Hader deal which was heavily lamented at the time (as this is now) has been an exceptional blessing to the crew through the arrival of Contreras, Payamps & Gasser and the blossom of Devin.  Burnes has never won more than 12 games, his cutter became hittable this past year at times, and getting no return for him other than a compensatory pick would have been a shame.  I think the Brewers are a big part of Burnes success as well.  His 9 era and 1.8 whip in 2019 would have scared off some teams, but they nurtured him,  While our estimated wins will shrink by four games in 2024, Stearns has the money to go out and get a free agent starter.  Plenty of options in the $10M range.  Freddy will have the opportunity to be an ace, he has the stuff to do it.  Losing Woodruff was not Stearns fault and I think we have a great chance at signing him back in 2025.  The present is bright, the future is brighter.  See you on opening day.

[Joseph Zarr]

1 hour ago, MJLiverock said:

I have been a fan for a long time, remember watching the Brewers clinch the AL in Baltimore in '82 and running home from school to see how the afternoon WS games played out.  Is that long enough for you?  

I also remember the countless times the next batch of prospects is going to get them over the hump, it is always next year.  I choose reality - -I ask in what way does always giving up proven talent vs. paying them and getting back lottery tickets that if they hit just equal the talent you gave up provide evidence the team will be better?  This is the genesis of the rearranging deck chairs, just like the Bucks of the Herb Kohl era.    Nothing has raised the ceiling here and when Adames and Williams are let go they will again point to some down the road improvement only to have those players come of age as another set of Vets are let go- -how many times do we have to see this play out?

I feel for you. I really do. Your fandom seems like it has turned to misery. I can only hope it gets better. I've been a fan of the Crew as long as you and we share a similar memory of 1982. We never sniffed success like this in the Kohl era. Not even remotely. We essentially had the one EC Finals run and that was it. If you can't accept the method by which the Brewers do things, you're going to live a fan life of perpetual disappointment. You choose 'reality' because this is the reality you choose to see. And, as you can also see, that reality is seen different across Brewers fandom. It's not right. It's not wrong. But, man, the way you're seeing things is a really hard fan burden to bear! There is a lot to be grateful for even if they aren't doing things the way you'd like and, under this ownership and management, likely never will.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, MJLiverock said:

I also remember the countless times the next batch of prospects is going to get them over the hump

Baseball America just gave the Brewers farm system their highest preseason ranking since 2004.

This batch of prospects is right up there with the first wave of the Mark A era that kicked off our run of success from 2007-11 and the second wave that we’ve rode for the last seven years.

The difference is all those highly ranked prospects are joining an already successful org, not one starting over from the dregs like they were with the previous two waves.

[Joseph Zarr]

3 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Baseball America just gave the Brewers farm system their highest preseason ranking since 2004.

This batch of prospects is right up there with the first wave of the Mark A era that kicked off our run of success from 2007-11 and the second wave that we’ve rode for the last seven years.

The difference is all those highly ranked prospects are joining an already successful org, not one starting over from the dregs like they were with the previous two waves.

AND, I know you know this but it is worth iterating: this wave is also much much deeper as it spans well into those Southern regions. With the advancements and investments we are seeing in Latin America, I don't think even those of us who study the system's depths regularly even know how good it actually is. Which, well, it's extremely encouraging in regards to the longevity and impacts beyond even this wave of talent. 

[brewmann04]

I been a fan since the Ken Sanders and Jim Lonborg days so yes their been many disappointment's  but 82 stings because if Fingers does not go down we have our one WS

When the Crew had their 3 headed monster at the Rotation the Beweres FO failed to address the Need to get Hitting to make a Serious WS threat.

I won't get into the Hader Move at the Time which destroyed the Pysch of that team.

so yes i know it was only a Matter of time we were going to get rid of our 3 Big FA Woody sooner because of an Injury  but after they signed Hoskins it got me thinking they are serious  getting a big bat to only be crushed again seeing our Ace being Shipped out.

Very Disappointed fan at this point heading into Spring Training

[Jim French Stepstool]

4 hours ago, MJLiverock said:

I have been a fan for a long time, remember watching the Brewers clinch the AL in Baltimore in '82 and running home from school to see how the afternoon WS games played out.  Is that long enough for you?  

I also remember the countless times the next batch of prospects is going to get them over the hump, it is always next year.  I choose reality - -I ask in what way does always giving up proven talent vs. paying them and getting back lottery tickets that if they hit just equal the talent you gave up provide evidence the team will be better?  This is the genesis of the rearranging deck chairs, just like the Bucks of the Herb Kohl era.    Nothing has raised the ceiling here and when Adames and Williams are let go they will again point to some down the road improvement only to have those players come of age as another set of Vets are let go- -how many times do we have to see this play out?

Dude, first off, welcome to the board.

I've read some of your posts. I really think your grievance is with the financial structure of the game, not the Brewers. They're pretty much doing what they have to do.

[Harold Hutchison]

21 hours ago, David Crawford said:

It is interesting to read the 'sky is falling' takes, sad but interesting.  Corbin Burnes was traded wisely by Matt Arnold.  Look at the era of David Stearns/Matt Arnold transactions and you will see they win 80+% of those deals.  Even the Josh Hader deal which was heavily lamented at the time (as this is now) has been an exceptional blessing to the crew through the arrival of Contreras, Payamps & Gasser and the blossom of Devin.  Burnes has never won more than 12 games, his cutter became hittable this past year at times, and getting no return for him other than a compensatory pick would have been a shame.  I think the Brewers are a big part of Burnes success as well.  His 9 era and 1.8 whip in 2019 would have scared off some teams, but they nurtured him,  While our estimated wins will shrink by four games in 2024, Stearns has the money to go out and get a free agent starter.  Plenty of options in the $10M range.  Freddy will have the opportunity to be an ace, he has the stuff to do it.  Losing Woodruff was not Stearns fault and I think we have a great chance at signing him back in 2025.  The present is bright, the future is brighter.  See you on opening day.

Woodruff's injury and the Bally Sports collapse is a tough 1-2 punch.

That said, could this team really work well? I'd put the starters at roughly on par with 2018 - maybe a step higher as Peralta is a true TOR/ace type that the Crew lacked that year. There are a couple of vets (Miley, Ross, Rea) and a comeback candidate (Ashby) but also a lot of young prospects (Rodriguez, Hall, Gasser, Misiorowski, McKendry) in the mix as well.

[biedergb]

On 2/2/2024 at 9:35 AM, Joseph Zarr said:

Burnesy conceded 4 or more runs in 9 of his 33 total outings in 2023. He closed out his season with a 6-pack and then a 4-pack in the playoffs. He wasn't an Ace. This was a fair package. It was a smart trade. This has nothing to do with the perpetual and nauseating Mark is cheap storyline. It once again has to do with smart baseball decisions. IF one is going to complain about this trade, I would move their attention to the topic the Brewers ultimately held onto Burnes too long. But, if they had traded him earlier the fans would then complain they traded their Ace and ruined the Brewers chances. It's a No Win situation for management and the personnel department. But, this was the right organizational decision at this time. I don't know why that's a hard thing to grapple with. I really don't. 

He is still an ace. Not all aces have Cy Young years every season. I mean not since like Greg Maddux in the 1990s with Randy Johnson among others. That was a different era.

Now you have 2-3 year runs like Burnes had (2020-mid 2022) and then sustained success, and may have another 1-2 year run again.  An Ace is guy who when pitches the team expects to win, and the team expects a "quality start" (which is an awful definition) as the minimum for that pitcher. I think that is Burnes. He is alongside Bieber, Cole, Gallen as examples. All would be aces but all have had OK years (ERA+ in the 95-115 range) at some times as well. So Corbin was "down" the last two year more because we all dreamed on him building upon his 2020-2021 years, but sustaining that high was unrealistic.

Now the real question is can you be successful without an "Ace" or can the team develop another ace.

[biedergb]

The glass half full is that the team has had the most sustained success since 2017 that the organization has every had. Most of the 90 win seasons have come since 2008, and several in the past few years. And 2 playoffs in the 1980s, none in the 1990s, and only in the 2000s. The franchise was 2 wins away from WS in 2011, and 1 win away in 2018. And the team has made the playoffs in every year but 1 since 2018.

 

The glass half empty is that the financials of baseball will not allow the Brewers to truly compete with LA, NY and even places like Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta who can afford to take risks and make mistakes. The Brewers cannot take those financial risks without potentially sabotaging seasons as a result. In addition the high water mark was really 2011 (that team was truly loaded). Also one will argue that the playoff appearances are due to expanded playoffs (particularly in 2020), and the win totals is only due to the poor division they play in that pad the numbers.

 

Somewhere between the two is where the truth is. Just like this trade. It is not awful and simply "giving away" our star pitcher. Nor can we state that this was a great return.  It was a so-so return, with a trade off of obtaining more MLB ready players with less ceiling, and the market probably dictated that the return for a player about the enter a walk year is not equal for the value of that player. I don't love it, but I can live with it. Just like the team this year, I will follow them, but expectations are much lower now.

The end it on a high note attempt:

The Brewers are set up to have another potential run with Chourio, Frelick, Contreras as the likely cornerstone players (like Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hart) and likely another few more key pieces among a very deep prospect pool where not a specific player needs to succeed, but likely one of several will succeed. If all works out it may not be decades before another serious run, but hopefully just a few years. (fingers crossed)