Jakob Junis Joins Brewers Rotation Mix on One-Year Deal (UPDATED)

[Matthew Trueblood]

It's hardly fair to consider him a replacement for the ace they just traded away, but the Brewers agreed to a deal late Monday night with a journeyman righthander who bolsters their rotation depth.

Image courtesy of © Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

According to Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, Jakob Junis and the Brewers have agreed to a one-year deal, pending a physical.

Right hander Jakob Junis has a deal with the Brewers pending physical, per source.

He's being signed as a starting pitcher after having served as both starter and reliever for the Giants over the last two seasons.

— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) February 6, 2024

Junis, 31, comes to the Brewers after two very respectable seasons in San Francisco, where he was a strike-throwing slider maven and swingman for the Giants, who had him using that breaking ball about 60 percent of the time and his sinker barely half as often. Junis gets hit hard, and has always allowed a high batting average on balls in play, but he can fill up the zone even with his slider and got enough strikeouts over the last two years to be useful.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic says the deal is worth $7 million. That's interesting, not because Junis isn't worth around that figure (he is), but because it's a not-insubstantial addition to a payroll the ceiling of which feels like a moving target lately.

Free-agent right-hander Jakob Junis in agreement with Brewers on one-year, $7M contract, pending physical, sources tell @TheAthletic. First with agreement: @kileymcd. Story: https://t.co/ntXxjQT0DY

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) February 6, 2024

Presumably, he slots in as the Brewers' fifth starter for the time being, with the understanding (by all parties) that the development of Robert Gasser, Jacob Misiorowski, and/or DL Hall could push him into a long relief role. That's where Junis spent the lion's share of 2023 for San Francisco, and it might be the job to which he's better suited. As befits a slider-sinker righty, he gave up an .807 OPS to left-handed batters last year, with an underwhelming 13.5% K-BB%. Against righties, he was much better, with a .749 OPS (and that inflated by a very high BABIP) and a 24.1% K-BB%. A bit of protection from bad matchups is in order, and could help him hang on as a credible back-end starter or multi-inning arm. 

While he is a starter, expect to see Pat Murphy pulling Junis after two trips through the rotation pretty routinely. All of this assumes that the team doesn't have any grand ideas to fix or improve him, of course, and that's never quite a safe assumption. Though Junis is much older and more experienced than was (to pick one recent example) Bryse Wilson at this time last year, he is another in a long line of arms the team has acquired after they failed to live up to the potential they would sometimes flash. If the Brewers think they can merge the approaches Junis used during his time in Kansas City (when he had a four-seamer and used his sinker and slider in a more supplemental capacity) with the one he adopted in San Francisco, they might be able to unlock some things.

For now, though, Junis is a low-risk, low-reward way to backfill some of the innings the team lost by trading away Corbin Burnes. He won't make anyone forget about the burly ace, but he ought to provide some stability to a pitching staff that was briefly very much in need of it.

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Do you like this pickup? Does it seem to foreclose higher-upside additions, or merely reinforce the team's message about wanting to remain competitive while looking ahead to an uncertain future?

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[jay87shot]

He was pretty good later in the year. His k/9 was 10 compared to a career rate around 8. Junis isn't a sexy name but could be a Wade Miley type add. There are probably 4 or 5 other starters I would have preferred but I can live with this.

It does however muddy the bullpen depth even more, Ross gets kicked to the pen for sure. Gasser in AAA likely.

Peralta, Miley, Junis, Rae, Ashby/Hall

Williams, Uribe, Payamps, Megill, Milner, Wilson, Peguero, Clarke, Ross, Vieira, Ashby/Hall

16 pitchers for 13 spots.

[Bashopolis]

Was hoping for Mike Klevinger so not really excited for this move.  
 

Also worry about him moving from a SF pitching environment to playing home games in Milwaukee.  
 

It feels like the Brewers are leaning heavily into non traditional roles for a number of pitchers with folks like Rea, Ross, Wilson and now this guy.  

[Trax]

Good signing, but hopefully we're not done looking for a true starting quality pitcher.  Junis is far better out of the pen.

[Sugarrayray]

I actually would be upset if Gasser is not in the bigs to start the year. Technically he has proven more at AAA than probably any pitching prospect in baseball right now. Sending him back again is the kind of thing that can mess with a prospects head.

I like depth signings, but if guys like Junis and or Ross are blocking Gasser’s development, not only is that pretty un-Brewers like, but also seem pretty counterproductive. Especially in a year that is somewhat of a “soft rebuild” where they’re letting the young guys play.

Can anyone explain to me what I’m missing?

[Sugarrayray]

Also I have so much faith in the Brewers to get the best out of a pitcher, but for some of the penny pinching moves they’ve done, I think this is too much money for a guy like Junis. He seems like long relief is his best spot.

[Jim French Stepstool]

I can't fairly comment on the guy, because every time I see his name I can't help but think of Jeff Juden.

[biedergb]

How is $7M either low risk or a good value when that is about 5% (3-6%) of team payroll for a swing starter or reliever. An improvement over Colin Rea, yes. Not much above in house options. I’d rather they use cash for a 1-2 year option like Hoskins who may significantly improve the rotation.

Now I’m not sure who is out there, but no loving $7M for a team that sees $8-10 million as a major obstacle, and anything above $10M as a luxury.

I am hopeful I’m wrong. Just don’t see the money adding up to the value of the player.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Paying $7 million for this guy tells me that there were other teams interested. Which also indicates that there is some solid upside here. It wouldn't surprise me whatsoever if he comes in and defies expectations. 

[Team Canada]

15 hours ago, biedergb said:

How is $7M either low risk or a good value when that is about 5% (3-6%) of team payroll for a swing starter or reliever.

If you're going to do that math, then you need to add up this and next year's payroll as the denominator, since the 7M is spread over two years. You can't say they're spending 7M this year, because they're not.

[biedergb]

4 hours ago, Team Canada said:

If you're going to do that math, then you need to add up this and next year's payroll as the denominator, since the 7M is spread over two years. You can't say they're spending 7M this year, because they're not.

Isn't it a 1-year deal? If I read that wrong, then ignore the rest. But if it's a one year roster spot for this player, and the deal is spared over two, then I'm even less enthused - as it is still a $7M commitment for one year of service, or did I miss something?

In that event, the yes 2.5% of payroll this year is great, but 2.5% of next year payroll for someone not on the team isn't great.

I mean, I am just thinking in house options or NRI options could be close in value to the team and financially better since he is not a significant upgrade, and I'd rather they add an extra $7M (or more) to the payroll next year (or the following year) to add a key piece, not just a guy who can fill innings.

[Sugarrayray]

3 hours ago, biedergb said:

Isn't it a 1-year deal? If I read that wrong, then ignore the rest. But if it's a one year roster spot for this player, and the deal is spared over two, then I'm even less enthused - as it is still a $7M commitment for one year of service, or did I miss something?

In that event, the yes 2.5% of payroll this year is great, but 2.5% of next year payroll for someone not on the team isn't great.

I mean, I am just thinking in house options or NRI options could be close in value to the team and financially better since he is not a significant upgrade, and I'd rather they add an extra $7M (or more) to the payroll next year (or the following year) to add a key piece, not just a guy who can fill innings.

Hey bud I think its a mutual option, which never get exercised. So I think its 4 mil this year with a 3 mil “buyout” next year or something like that.

Hope this helps.

[Sugarrayray]

Hey I wanted to know if anyone has thoughts on this or knows more than I do. 
 

its pretty obvious Junis mostly sucks against lefties. Although, I noticed that his change up usage almost tripled last year from the first couple months of the season to the last two or so. I am not being exact but it’s around there. His second half of the season stats are wayyy better than his first half. I wonder if he finally found the right change and the Brewers see something there that gives them confidence in his ability to start. I mean by the end of the year he was even throwing his change against righties, and it is fairly firm. This gives me more confidence in the deal now that he truly appears to be a three pitch pitcher. 
 

Any thoughts from my fellow geniuses?

[ClosetBrewerFan]

On 2/7/2024 at 6:20 PM, Sugarrayray said:

Hey bud I think its a mutual option, which never get exercised. So I think its 4 mil this year with a 3 mil “buyout” next year or something like that.

Hope this helps.

It is a mutual option, but the buyout occurs in November of 2024 (NLT 5 days after the world series). The value of the buyout is applied to the year end 40 man roster payroll.  So it really is just a 1 year deal for $7M, with $3M of that deferred until November.

[Sugarrayray]

3 hours ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

It is a mutual option, but the buyout occurs in November of 2024 (NLT 5 days after the world series). The value of the buyout is applied to the year end 40 man roster payroll.  So it really is just a 1 year deal for $7M, with $3M of that deferred until November.

Huh then what’s even the point of it?

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Deferred money.  Lump sum paid at end of year instead of throughout the year.  Its probably more of a cash flow thing for the team.