Is MLB Still the Best Setting for Jackson Chourio's Development?

[Jack Stern]

Jackson Chourio's big-league career has gotten off to a rocky start, but the positive moments have demonstrated that he has little to gain from a demotion to Triple-A. With a potential roster crunch looming, the Brewers must keep that in mind.

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Brewers principal owner Mark Attanasio and general manager Matt Arnold held court with the media during the team’s latest homestand. Among the topics discussed was the development of Jackson Chourio, the club’s former top prospect who has debuted and spent the entire season in the big leagues after signing an eight-year, $82 million contract.

Chourio has struggled mightily so far, hitting .214/.257/.345 (71 wRC+) in 180 plate appearances. Defensive metrics grade his glovework as above-average, but he has also shown hesitancy and taken subpar routes on playable balls.

Garrett Mitchell’s impending return from the injured list, Sal Frelick’s recent hot streak, Blake Perkins’s solid performance as a fourth outfielder, and Chourio’s inconsistent play raise questions about his short-term fit with the big-league term.

His playing time against right-handed starters has dried up lately. Chourio did not start in Monday night’s series opener against the Phillies, and has now started in just two of Milwaukee’s last seven games against a right-handed starter.

A demotion to Triple-A could be on the table, but Attanasio pushed back against that notion.

“I don’t see where he’s going to learn anything in Triple-A at this point,” he said.

Attanasio is right. While there would be a more straightforward path to daily at-bats in Nashville, Chourio won’t gain much from a developmental standpoint by facing that level of competition.

Chourio has already hit six home runs, and has shown that he can punish mistakes. When pitchers leave pitches over the middle of the plate, he’s destroying them.

Two of those home runs have come during the last two homestands, and demonstrate how naturally Chourio crushes any pitch in his wheelhouse. On May 15, he demolished a changeup over the plate, sending it to the Miller Lite Deck in left field with a powerful but controlled swing.

Last Monday against the Cubs, he took a controlled swing at a two-strike fastball over the outer half of the plate and hit a 103.8-mph double into the gap in right-center.

On Sunday against the White Sox, he belted a hanging slider by Nick Nastrini into the left-field bleachers.

Chourio’s struggles are primarily against well-executed pitches around the edges of the strike zone. He also continues to swing at non-competitive ones, chasing outside the zone at a 36.1% rate that ranks in the 10th percentile of all hitters.

Facing pitchers in Triple-A who are more prone to making mistakes over the plate would allow Chourio to lean back on his existing strengths, instead of addressing his weaknesses. Being challenged less will not facilitate growth.

Keeping him in the big leagues also guarantees Chourio immediate access to perhaps the most important resource in his development: veteran teammates who can offer guidance and encouragement.

“The veteran guys are really helpful for him,” Arnold said. “Conversations with guys like Freddy [Peralta]. He’s playing dominoes with Wade Miley. He’s connecting with veteran guys, and he wants to learn from them.”

The conversation with Peralta appeared to spark an improvement in Chourio’s glovework. He appeared hesitant to go after shallow fly balls, perhaps in fear of what would happen if the ball skirted past him after an unsuccessful dive attempt. Chourio was forgoing outs to ensure the ball remained in front of him.

When it happened again last Tuesday with Peralta on the mound, the ace pulled Chourio aside afterward for a pep talk. He reminded the rookie that the organization and his teammates had confidence in his abilities, so he should have the confidence to play aggressively. Chourio made two diving catches in the following days.

“One hundred percent,” Peralta said when asked if Chourio played with more confidence throughout the rest of the homestand. “I think everyone can tell if they’re seeing what he’s been doing … That’s what we want at the end of the day, to make him feel comfortable.”

“I don’t know what he said, but it’s what you want to see, right?” Attanasio said. “It’s a constructive conversation. All I know is they had that conversation and then Jackson made a sliding catch shortly thereafter.”

Barring injuries or sudden slumps, the Brewers could be facing some difficult roster decisions when Mitchell is ready to return. It’s possible that Chourio will end up in Nashville soon to ensure playing time. The best place for his development to continue, though, is still the big leagues.

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[Bratwithspecialsauce]

I love what the Brewers have done with player development except in one case.. They are close to destroying what made Frelick such an exciting prospect.

His OBP in the minors was well over .400 and he came up with great contact skills, going opposite field and doing what he could to get on base.. 

His swing was short, relatively level and compact without too much lower body activity.. 

Fast forward after his initial success and I hardly recognize his swing.. It's longer, slower and his back knee nearly touches the ground (and much more active lower body) on a bad attempt at increased launch angle..

It's hurt him on every level.. He already had extra base ability with his speed and gap power.

His swing changes have hurt his strike zone recognition, have NOT increased his power and stolen his contact and ability to go to all fields..

Whether it was his decision or coaching, it's made him far less confident at the plate and taken away his best assets (contact, walks and minimized his speed contribution). He's a bit of a mess and I'd hate to see his career change direction because of good intentioned, bad advice from others 

[Fear The Chorizo]

Chourio needs to stay in Milwaukee, no question about it.  Let him continue to work through initial MLB struggles and make the adjustments he needs - along with seeing MLB-caliber pitching along the way.

A roster crunch shouldn't include thoughts of demoting a player as talented as Chourio is.

[igor67]

I'd be more inclined to buy the premise if he had seen a significant number AAA ABs, but he never has so giving him a month or 2 to be successful putting these lessons to practice is not something to dismiss out of hand. He's still got 2 weeks until Mitchell is back and if he shows progress it's a different conversation.

[WAN2]

Frelick:  more power means more money.  Swing changes follow.   Chourio:  any "needed adjustments" don't happen riding the bench no matter pitcher quality.  

[Bashopolis]

It would have been better for Chourio to have taken a bit more time at AAA.  
 

If you want a player to be an exceptional player, it is good for them to gain the experience being exceptional in the minors.  Chourio never had that opportunity at AAA.  So he came to the majors without that experience on which to build.  
 

At this point, I would make a decision closer to early July.  If he struggles and loses playing time when Mitchel is back then it may be good to get him at least 1.5 months of everyday AAA at bats with a hope of him providing an impact in September.  

[Kripes - Brewers]

Try not to underestimate the power of the mind. If Chourio goes down and gets some regular playing time, odds are that he starts to mash. It benefits him (and the pundits) by giving him the chance to play loose without pushing so hard and he's able to check that box saying he progressed through all the normal levels successfully. At that point, he has nothing left to prove at that level and I think it accelerates his overall development. Ideally, they'd do the same with Frelick - give him a chance to reset and take a breath.

[Matt Breen]

I want to note that Chourio took some time to adjust to advanced pitching at Biloxi last year. He was hitting something like .250 or so in the first half of 2023, then things clicked and he mashed the rest of the season. 

He's effectively skipping AAA, and while he has not been great, he's shown lots of potential. Without knowing specifics of what he has struggled with and so forth, I'd be more inclined to just let him learn the ropes now in anticipation of him rounding into form as the year progresses. 

Maybe that's dumb - but he's a guy with a ton of talent, so let him learn with the best and challenge him. I'm willing to live with some subpar play for a while.

At least, that's my theory.

[wiguy94]

Just now, reillymcshane said:

I want to note that Chourio took some time to adjust to advanced pitching at Biloxi last year. He was hitting something like .250 or so in the first half of 2023, then things clicked and he mashed the rest of the season. 

This really isn't true. He had one amazing month when they switched back to normal baseballs from the tacky baseball. Outside of that month he had a sub .800 OPS in AA in every single month.

April - .712

May - .739

June - .714

July - 1.164

August - .718

September - .792 OPS

As Jack states in the article, Chourio crushes mistakes and struggles when pitchers execute their pitches. With AA changing from a tacky ball with extra grip to a normal baseball, I've always speculated that pitchers were struggling to execute in that first month leading to Chourio seeing far more mistake pitches.

[Brewcrew82]

37 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

This really isn't true. He had one amazing month when they switched back to normal baseballs from the tacky baseball. Outside of that month he had a sub .800 OPS in AA in every single month.

April - .712

May - .739

June - .714

July - 1.164

August - .718

September - .792 OPS

As Jack states in the article, Chourio crushes mistakes and struggles when pitchers execute their pitches. With AA changing from a tacky ball with extra grip to a normal baseball, I've always speculated that pitchers were struggling to execute in that first month leading to Chourio seeing far more mistake pitches.

Honestly, going strictly month by month is a bit arbitrary. You could pick another month-long stretch from 8/23 to 9/23 (including several games of AAA), for example, where he put up an .860 OPS...

For the most part, he mashed in the second half last year, as evidenced by an overall OPS well north of .900. Except for like a two week stretch in mid August where he was banged up and eventually was forced to sit out a few games. 

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Honestly, going strictly month by month is a bit arbitrary. You could pick another month-long stretch from 8/23 to 9/23 (including several games of AAA), for example, where he put up an .860 OPS...

For the most part, he mashed in the second half last year, as evidenced by an overall OPS well north of .900. Except for like a 10 day stretch in mid August where he was banged up and eventually was forced to sit out a few games. 

AAA hitting environment was dramatically friendlier than the Southern League which is the entire reason I didn't use his AAA OPS numbers. He mashed in July. Outside of July his best month long wRC+ was 111 and every other month was under 100. 

April - 85 wRC+

May - 96 wRC+

June - 91 wRC+

July - 203 wRC+

August - 89 wRC+

September - 111 wRC+ (AA and AA)

Chourio mashed in July and that's about it.

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

AAA hitting environment was dramatically friendlier than the Southern League which is the entire reason I didn't use his AAA OPS numbers. He mashed in July. Outside of July his best month long wRC+ was 111 and every other month was under 100. 

April - 85 wRC+

May - 96 wRC+

June - 91 wRC+

July - 203 wRC+

August - 89 wRC+

September - 111 wRC+ (AA and AA)

Chourio mashed in July and that's about it.

Again, going month by month is a bit arbitrary imo. The several games in AAA of that month long stretch of games I included actually dragged down his OPS. If you just included just the AA ABs, it was .876 or a 130 wRC+. 

Best thing imo is to just take the entire second half for what it was and by that measure he did mash with a wRC+ of 144.

[wiguy94]

25 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Honestly, going strictly month by month is a bit arbitrary. You could pick another month-long stretch from 8/23 to 9/23 (including several games of AAA), for example, where he put up an .860 OPS...

For the most part, he mashed in the second half last year, as evidenced by an overall OPS well north of .900. Except for like a two week stretch in mid August where he was banged up and eventually was forced to sit out a few games. 

Honestly if I wanted to be arbitrary I would have used July tacky ball and July normal ball splits to further amplify how his biggest hot streak of the season coincided directly with the pitchers adjusting to a new baseball.

July tack ball - 49 wRC+

July normal ball - 244 wRC+

Rest of AA normal ball - 98 wRC+

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Honestly if I wanted to be arbitrary I would have used July tacky ball and July normal ball splits to further amplify how his biggest hot streak of the season coincided directly with the pitchers adjusting to a new baseball.

July tack ball - 49 wRC+

July normal ball - 244 wRC+

Rest of AA normal ball - 98 wRC+

Why I said the best thing is to take the entire second half for what it was. And by that measure he did mash. 

It's hard when dealing with a prospect that young as the swings in production could be due to any number of things, not limited to the tacky ball. 

[wiguy94]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

Why I said the best thing is to take the entire second half for what it was. And by that measure he did mash. 

He definitely mashed in the second half of July when pitchers were adjusting to a new baseball. That I'll agree with. Outside of that it was basically the same story as the first half. Small flashes of great play but a lot of inconsistency. 

[Brian]

I would send him down till he gets his confidence and momentum back then bring him back up. 

[Trax]

When ready I'd have Mitch with an extended stay at Triple A to get his timing down.  When he's been killing it there for a while bring him up, and unless you were going to do away with Bauers it would be either Jackson or Sal going to Triple A. 

I think both those young players would benefit with some time down there to work on things.  

[Trax]

Unless he really dives no way do I send Perkins packing.  He's won his place in CF (barring an implosion at the plate), I'd have Mitch playing a corner.  Yeli could spend more time at DH and you could do some platoon matchups with it.