Ask your favorite expert a question!

[Playing Catch]

I'm not sure if this is "appropriate" or not, and it's possible, that Michaelis would prefer reserving his responses to his podcasts, so mods feel free to delete the thread, if you like. This also doesn't need to be specific to Michaelis, if there are other "experts," in the field that can answer certain questions about player development.

The first question for the thread relates to Manuel Rodriguez's velocity, which was recently brought up in one of the minor league reports.

How much velocity do pitchers typically gain from 18 to 25? Is it reasonable to expect that Rodriguez will one day hit 95+?

[Spencer Michaelis]

Idk about the "expert" label, but I appreciate it haha. I'd be happy to answer some questions in here,  but I may actually toss some into the podcast as well if I think they'd be fun conversational questions! If anyone has a question they'd specifically like me to answer just @ me on here and I'll try to get to them.

[Spencer Michaelis]

18 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

The first question for the thread relates to Manuel Rodriguez's velocity, which was recently brought up in one of the minor league reports.

How much velocity do pitchers typically gain from 18 to 25? Is it reasonable to expect that Rodriguez will one day hit 95+?

As for this question, it's honestly hard to say in terms of the gains from 18-25. There are a lot of factors that go into it. A pitcher that's mostly maxed out physically might struggle to add velocity, but if they have iffy mechanics, they could add velocity through sharpening up the delivery.

For Rodriguez, I do think there's room to grow into some more strength at 6'2, 175. Mechanically he might have the cleanest delivery in the system, but he could likely get a bit better in terms of rotational speed. So a bit more of that and he could add a couple of ticks. 95 doesn't seem out of reach, but it's certainly not a guarantee. The Brewers could also find that the impeccable command isn't worth messing with any of his mechanics and rely on physical development to try to add that velocity more than anything else.

[Joseph Zarr]

I'm going to ride Spencer's thunder here and add some sprinkles and ingredients to consider - considering I have watched nearly all of Rodriguez's starts given he pitches in the early portion of the week and series.

Here's what we know about Rodriguez: (and, I'll add, IF Corniel can keep trending I would likely begin including him here - needs to further put the May walk struggles behind him for me to fully 'invest')

• 18 - turning 19 in August.
• Has demonstrated uncanny abilities to control the Zone despite lower velo stuff.
• Has demonstrated demonstrable capacities to lean into and set up strikeout pitches
• Has shown he can work the upper part of the zone and set up lower velo with sneaky rise and ride
• Has a frame that 'appears' capable of adding mass or building strength
• Has an extremely simple and repeatable delivery

I think, more than anything, we need to wait. The core question I have is: can we, in the very least, begin to juxtapose his developments to the 2022/23 class of Carolina call-ups to High-A. How will he fare/compare to Cornielle, Puello, Jimenez, and Cruz? He doesn't have Cornielle's velocity. BUT, I put him in Cornielle's class of threat on the mound - because, unlike Cornielle, I know I won't have unnecessary traffic or possible blow-up innings where I waste my bullpen. What Rodriguez already has that is just so much more advanced than any of the guys listed here is control of the zone. You just can not teach that. Every man, to a T, on that list has had repeated issues with walks and wildness. Rodriguez, at age 18, pitches like a Triple-A veteran. 

The velo hikes might be important? I don't know. I, personally, don't care regardless. IF he can continue to add to his off-speed kit and continue to locate I will be absolutely find with say a 'touches 91-93' top out as he enters his 20's. He is deceptive. He is absolutely controlled. He is absolutely accurate (47:6 K:BB as an 18 yo in Low-A is absurd). 

Knowing how to pitch is not something you can add. He has an innate talent on the mound we haven't seen at this age and with this consistency all that often.

[Spencer Michaelis]

12 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

• Has an extremely simple and repeatable delivery

The velo hikes might be important? I don't know. I, personally, don't care regardless. IF he can continue to add to his off-speed kit and continue to locate I will be absolutely find with say a 'touches 91-93' top out as he enters his 20's. He is deceptive. He is absolutely controlled. He is absolutely accurate (47:6 K:BB as an 18 yo in Low-A is absurd). 

 

This is super important, and I didn't include it because of what the question was asking, but I agree in saying I don't think Rodriguez needs to get to the mid-90's to be an MLB pitcher either. The fastball has really good characteristics on it and will likely always play better than his velocity would make you think. 

[Playing Catch]

A Yoho question...

McKibbon suggested this in his great "Arms" thread, but is Yoho being stretched out as a starter? What are your thoughts on this?

Also, if you are prognosticating out 10-20 years, how do you think pitching will morph? Will short-starters become the norm? Long relievers? 6-man rotations? Piggy-backing?

Are there other relievers in the system that have enough in their arsenals to get stretched out and go through a lineup full of lefties and righties a couple of times?

Thanks!

p.s. - I don't know how to "tag" someone.

[Jake McKibbin]

24 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

A Yoho question...

McKibbon suggested this in his great "Arms" thread, but is Yoho being stretched out as a starter? What are your thoughts on this?

Also, if you are prognosticating out 10-20 years, how do you think pitching will morph? Will short-starters become the norm? Long relievers? 6-man rotations? Piggy-backing?

Are there other relievers in the system that have enough in their arsenals to get stretched out and go through a lineup full of lefties and righties a couple of times?

Thanks!

p.s. - I don't know how to "tag" someone.

Yoho's pitch mix is wide enough to potentially manage it, but I should clarify I was talking about Shane Smith's conversion from the bullpen to the rotation! Must've gotten lost in translation so apologies! I'll leave the rest to big Spence

Also if you put in the "@" symbol and then the username that should do it (A drop down menu will pop up after you type the first letter of their name)

 

[Spencer Michaelis]

On 6/20/2024 at 9:17 AM, Playing Catch said:

A Yoho question...

McKibbon suggested this in his great "Arms" thread, but is Yoho being stretched out as a starter? What are your thoughts on this?

Also, if you are prognosticating out 10-20 years, how do you think pitching will morph? Will short-starters become the norm? Long relievers? 6-man rotations? Piggy-backing?

Are there other relievers in the system that have enough in their arsenals to get stretched out and go through a lineup full of lefties and righties a couple of times?

Thanks!

p.s. - I don't know how to "tag" someone.

I actually wanted Yoho stretched when he was drafted, but yeah doesn’t seem to be happening. Which is understandable with his injury history and how quickly he’s moving in his current role.

I think baseball is more likely to stay similar to how it is now, but maybe even more extreme. The absolute best pitchers making legitimate starts and going deep. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see more piggy-backing over the next few years. I think most relievers are going to learn how to be multi-inning pitchers moving forward. Especially with the minor league roster limits. 

Most of the relievers I thought might be able to transition to starting already have. Hunt, Smith, Manfredi, Kuehner were all guys who had the repertoire to do it and now they are. Aidan Maldonado is a reliever I think could do it.

 

[Playing Catch]

If the Brewers young guys were draft eligible THIS year, where would they be drafted?

Jesus Made
Luis Pena
Jose Anderson
Eric Bitoni
Filippo Di Turi

[Spencer Michaelis]

23 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

If the Brewers young guys were draft eligible THIS year, where would they be drafted?

Jesus Made
Luis Pena
Jose Anderson
Eric Bitoni
Filippo Di Turi

I'd say all five of those guys are potential Day 1 guys this year (partially because it's a bit of a down year in terms of talent).

Made, Pena and Bitonti are probably the most likely to go round 1. Anderson and Di Turi are probably a tier below, if I had to guess, could see them falling a bit lower than top 2 rounds.

[Brewcrew82]

Here's a good one I was pondering at work today:

How many more "good" starts from Misiorowski before you consider A) moving him up to AAA OR (and more controversially) B) skipping AAA entirely and giving him a shot at the show in light of the current issues on the big league staff. 

Stuff we know is ready to play at the big league level and he's demonstrated meaningful improvements to his control over the course of the season (from 7.09 BB/9 in April/May to 2.63 BB/9 in June/July)....

And then an affirmative answer to B raises an entirely different question of how you best deploy him. As a starter? As a bulk relief guy, possibly in a piggyback role? Or in high-leverage relief? 

[biedergb]

For me - a solid month of July. If he can get to the 5th inning I’d move him up late season

If pitch count, control and inconsistency still plague him, he stays in AA until next year for me.  
‘For a prospect like him I see it’s about consistency and development- his stuff can play, but has to get deep into games on a regular basis and make it work even when his stuff isn’t all there.

I am in a minority and probably harsher on him than others - I have a soft spot for some struggling or undervalued players who I will still defend (Lara for example; most of Wisconsin pitching staff as undervalued like Rodriguez, Cortez, Letson). But Misiorowski can be a star if and big IF he can learn consistency start to start, inning to inning. I don’t know that moving him up when he isn’t doing that right now.

[Spencer Michaelis]

27 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Here's a good one I was pondering at work today:

How many more "good" starts from Misiorowski before you consider A) moving him up to AAA OR (and more controversially) B) skipping AAA entirely and giving him a shot at the show in light of the current issues on the big league staff. 

Stuff we know is ready to play at the big league level and he's demonstrated meaningful improvements to his control over the course of the season....

And then an affirmative answer to B raises an entirely different question of how you best deploy him. As a starter? As a bulk relief guy, possibly in a piggyback role? Or in high-leverage relief? 

I think it will depend. I think a couple more good starts and I'd bump him to AAA. I think there's a good chance we see him in the Milwaukee bullpen before years end though. 

Me personally, I think if you want him to start long term, moving him to the pen could make that more difficult. But I don't think he's going to be reliable enough to make starts this year, so if we see him I'd imagine it'll be a pen role.

[Ro Mueller]

Gonna cast my lure:

- Do we see any of the following as having the MLB stuff and discipline necessary to protect them in the Rule 5 draft this winter?:

- Chad Patrick
- Evan McKendry
- Alexander Cornielle
- Blake Holub
- Justin Yeager

[jay87shot]

How concerned should we be about Brock Wilken and EBJ and their lower BA? Wilken's power seems to be coming around and Brown has been a little better. I have given both some leeway with the early injuries but both seem to have way to many 0-4 nights.

 

[biedergb]

18 minutes ago, Ro Mueller said:

Gonna cast my lure:

- Do we see any of the following as having the MLB stuff and discipline necessary to protect them in the Rule 5 draft this winter?:

- Chad Patrick
- Evan McKendry
- Alexander Cornielle
- Blake Holub
- Justin Yeager

I think Patrick could be - let’s see what the season brings for him. McKendry may but hasn’t had as much upward trajectory this year, and may be passed by several others.

Cornielle - has the upside but not likely a MLB rule 5 candidate given this is his primary break out year at 22/23 in high A.  He doesn’t have the pure stuff to be a middle reliever in the bigs next year using someone else roster space. 
 

The next two are tough. Both relievers in the upper levels with stuff that could pitch in the bigs.  I see maybe a 40 man protection on one, or more likely a trade.

[biedergb]

And funny I’m answering in this thread — and not letting the experts answer. My bad 😬 whoops

[wallus]

With the graduations to the big league club, what current ranking is the farm system?

[biedergb]

Another couple of questions for the group-

1, For young pitchers (16-19 yo) in DSL/ACL/Low A - what is a reasonable expectation for growth/height, and expected increase in velocity? I see several smaller pitchers (ie W. King in DSL) and not sure if they would expect to grow enough? And others like M. Rodriguez in low A - how much uptick in velocity is possible?

 

2. For prospects as a whole who have a year that breaks their trend (ie Luis Lara, or Gregory Barrios from this year): is it more likely that those who struggle (or are average) then break out have more of a chance of continuing success? Or those who have had success and have a down year -  ore likely to revert back or stall out?

[Spencer Michaelis]

On 7/10/2024 at 3:50 PM, Ro Mueller said:

Gonna cast my lure:

- Do we see any of the following as having the MLB stuff and discipline necessary to protect them in the Rule 5 draft this winter?:

- Chad Patrick
- Evan McKendry
- Alexander Cornielle
- Blake Holub
- Justin Yeager

Patrick is probably the one here. His stuff is good enough to make MLB starts, and the results have been so solid too. Holub has the type of stuff I could see getting picked, but I doubt they'd feel compelled to protect him unless he starts performing much better in Nashville.

I like Cornielle quite a bit, but I think he probably makes it through without being picked this offseason as a starter who hasn't seen AA yet and doesn't have super big velo or anything like that. I could see him as someone they need to protect the following winter.

[Spencer Michaelis]

On 7/10/2024 at 3:56 PM, jay87shot said:

How concerned should we be about Brock Wilken and EBJ and their lower BA? Wilken's power seems to be coming around and Brown has been a little better. I have given both some leeway with the early injuries but both seem to have way to many 0-4 nights.

 

I have little to no concern with Wilken. EBJ in the last month has a 115 wRC+, so that's been very good to see,  hoping to see him impact the ball more still and also to show that this is more than a hot month at the plate. I have concerns with him for sure. I think I'll be writing about a change he made a little over a month ago that may have helped spark the hot stretch. Something that has me cautiously optimistic.

[Spencer Michaelis]

On 7/10/2024 at 4:36 PM, wallus said:

With the graduations to the big league club, what current ranking is the farm system?

I'd guess that it will fall in the 10-15 range if national groups rank it soon, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it jump back into the Top 10 by this time next year. A lot of super interesting talent in the lower levels.

[Spencer Michaelis]

26 minutes ago, biedergb said:

1, For young pitchers (16-19 yo) in DSL/ACL/Low A - what is a reasonable expectation for growth/height, and expected increase in velocity? I see several smaller pitchers (ie W. King in DSL) and not sure if they would expect to grow enough? And others like M. Rodriguez in low A - how much uptick in velocity is possible?

In terms of growth, it's really hard to speculate. I'd think the 16-17 year olds in particular have a decent chance of adding an inch or two in height, but not really sure. I don't think velocity is all that related to height though honestly. It's about ability to move and rotate more than anything else. I think a guy like Rodriguez will add a couple ticks by way of getting stronger, but probably never a big velo guy.

1 hour ago, biedergb said:

2. For prospects as a whole who have a year that breaks their trend (ie Luis Lara, or Gregory Barrios from this year): is it more likely that those who struggle (or are average) then break out have more of a chance of continuing success? Or those who have had success and have a down year -  ore likely to revert back or stall out?

I think there's more context needed for some of these things. How old are they relative to their league? Are they dealing with injury? Generally I'd usually prefer the player who is performing well more recently.

[Playing Catch]

Hey, @Spencer Michaelis,you mentioned on the last podcast that Made was considered the top DSL prospect. Did you mean league-wide, or just for the Brewers?

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Aram from Just Baseball was raving about Made in a recent podcast. Saying he might be the next big thing. He was also a fan of our draft this year though that was before it came out that Levonas wont sign.