3 Players Who Disappointed in the First Half

[Jason Wang]

While the rest of the team has been cooking, who has yet to find their mojo in 2024?

Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Hoby Milner
Following a marquee year where he posted a 1.82 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 64 ⅓ innings, Milner has struggled to keep up the Hoby heroics. He has regressed meaningfully in ERA (4.91), WHIP (1.25), and H/9 (9.2) since the end of 2023. 

On the bright side, it might not even be his fault. A closer look at his quality of contact numbers show that he’s more or less been the same, pitch-to-contact ground-ball god that he was last year. His hard-hit rate has actually decreased slightly from 35.4% to 32.8%, and his barrel rate of 3.1% is in the 97th percentile, so what gives?

To make a long story even longer, Jack Stern did a great job breaking down what has been going on this season but pretty much he’s been on the receiving end of some suspect batted balls. That might explain why his xERA of 3.17 is so much better than his actual ERA. While there are a ton of excellent video examples in the aforementioned article, here’s yet another one of a batted ball with an exit velocity of 72.3 mph and a launch angle of -59 degrees that became a hit.

Freddy Peralta
With Corbin Burnes being sent off to Baltimore and Brandon Woodruff being sent off to Sunshine Day Camp for Tommy John Recipients, 2024 was Peralta’s year to assume the role of team ace. It was an exciting opportunity for a young arm who has spent his entire major league career with the Brewers but things haven’t gone as swimmingly as some might have hoped. 

His 4.11 ERA and 1.19 aren’t bad numbers by any means but they are hardly what one would be hoping for out of the top guy in the rotation. Colin Rea and Tobias Myers have arguably outperformed Peralta whose own numbers are closer to that of Bryse Wilson, a long reliever turned emergency starter.

His strikeout and whiff rates are top notch as per usual but he simply gives up too much hard contact at hitter-friendly launch angles, creating a barrel rate of 8.9%. Opposing batters are averaging .238 and slugging .411 against his four-seam fastball which has historically been his best pitch. 

When he’s firing on all cylinders, he’s a pleasure to watch and his 11.4 K/9 leads all Brewers pitchers, qualified or not. His overall strikeout rate of 30.1% creates a feast-or-famine pitching style that limited his ability to be great in the first 97 games of the season.

Rhys Hoskins
When Milwaukee first signed Rhys Hoskins, it was assumed that the recurring problems at first base would be alleviated. The Brewers didn’t get a ton of production out of their first basemen in 2023 until they acquired Carlos Santana in the second half, who was about league-average. Hoskins seemed like a plus-bat that would add some much-needed pop and pizzazz to the lineup and so far, it hasn’t really played out that way.

He’s slashing .215/.308/.414 with just nine doubles and 14 home runs over 296 plate appearances. He is fifth on the team in slugging percentage among qualified hitters and has an OPS+ of 100. With negative defensive value, he’s actually slightly below replacement level given the offensive expectations of his position.

Was it unreasonable to assume he was going to return to full strength after missing an entire year due to injury? Probably, but he’s the third-highest paid player on the team this year and is making more than twice the fourth-highest paid player. Surely the frugal front office wouldn’t have invested a minimum of $16 million into a first baseman with average production.

Diagnosing his issues might be worth a deep dive of its own but for now, we as fickle, uncoordinated, unathletic, judgmental baseball fans can comfortably say that Hoskins hasn’t been what we had hoped he would be in a Brewers uniform.

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[Brian]

I agree with all 3 have been all disappointments,  I see the Blue Jays are unloading there talent which will have many interesting players available at the trade deadline. 

[Brian]

Also the Texas Rangers may be unloading soon. 

[BrewerFan]

I think putting Peralta in there is a bit unfair. 

He's had a couple poor outings, usually undone later in the game and with the HR ball, but he's got a...what, ~3.6 xFIP, 3.7 FIP. He's been pretty damn good, he's got 100IP...he's not a true ace, he's just a really good 2/3. 

Just because we lost Burnes or Woody, I think it was a bit unfair to expect Freddy to step in and be a true ace. He's done about what you'd hope. At least IMO. 

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, BrewerFan said:

I think putting Peralta in there is a bit unfair. 

He's had a couple poor outings, usually undone later in the game and with the HR ball, but he's got a...what, ~3.6 xFIP, 3.7 FIP. He's been pretty damn good, he's got 100IP...he's not a true ace, he's just a really good 2/3. 

Just because we lost Burnes or Woody, I think it was a bit unfair to expect Freddy to step in and be a true ace. He's done about what you'd hope. At least IMO. 

It's plenty reasonable to have expected more than a 100 ERA- from Peralta when he's been at 88, 88, 67, 89 the previous 4 seasons. Last season 16 of his 30 starts were QS. This year 7 of 19 starts have been quality starts. He hasn't been a good 2/3 this season. This season he's been an average 4.

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

It's plenty reasonable to have expected more than a 100 ERA- from Peralta when he's been at 88, 88, 67, 89 the previous 4 seasons. Last season 16 of his 30 starts were QS. This year 7 of 19 starts have been quality starts. He hasn't been a good 2/3 this season. This season he's been an average 4.

Quality starts is a silly metric. His 5 2/3rds of 3 hit 1ER and 11Ks vs the Cubs is the "hasn't been good" category. 5 1/3 vs TB with 1H, 2ER 7Ks is also in the 'not good,' category,..5IP 2 ER...in another....

3.69 FIP, BABIP ~30 points higher than his career numbers. 3.47 xFIP...

Yeah, I don't count that as a disappointment for a guy who's been reliable and taken the ball every 5 days. I think there were some unrealistic expectations he'd slide in for Burnes when that just wasn't going to happen...but hey, that's my opinion. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I think putting Peralta in there is a bit unfair. 

He's had a couple poor outings, usually undone later in the game and with the HR ball, but he's got a...what, ~3.6 xFIP, 3.7 FIP. He's been pretty damn good, he's got 100IP...he's not a true ace, he's just a really good 2/3. 

Just because we lost Burnes or Woody, I think it was a bit unfair to expect Freddy to step in and be a true ace. He's done about what you'd hope. At least IMO. 

I think it's fair to be a little down on Peralta but not excessively so. I don't expect him to be an ace; he's a little too flawed for that to be a reasonable expectation. But I do expect him to be better than average, somewhere around respectable #2 starter level.

And while he has shown his typical flashes of brilliance, he all-too-often falls into those epic innings where he can't find the strike zone, throws non-competitive pitches, and lobs over a meatball. He's a very frustrating pitcher to watch over a full season. He has all the pieces to make it work.

[Jason Wang]

9 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I think putting Peralta in there is a bit unfair. 

He's had a couple poor outings, usually undone later in the game and with the HR ball, but he's got a...what, ~3.6 xFIP, 3.7 FIP. He's been pretty damn good, he's got 100IP...he's not a true ace, he's just a really good 2/3. 

Just because we lost Burnes or Woody, I think it was a bit unfair to expect Freddy to step in and be a true ace. He's done about what you'd hope. At least IMO. 

personally, i have beef with him because he never responds to my twitter dms

[Samurai Bucky]

11 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Quality starts is a silly metric. His 5 2/3rds of 3 hit 1ER and 11Ks vs the Cubs is the "hasn't been good" category. 5 1/3 vs TB with 1H, 2ER 7Ks is also in the 'not good,' category,..5IP 2 ER...in another....

3.69 FIP, BABIP ~30 points higher than his career numbers. 3.47 xFIP...

Yeah, I don't count that as a disappointment for a guy who's been reliable and taken the ball every 5 days. I think there were some unrealistic expectations he'd slide in for Burnes when that just wasn't going to happen...but hey, that's my opinion. 

He should be on the list for the simple reason that he cannot finish batters like he used to.  How many 0-2 counts did he get to this year where he either walked the batter, or got into a double-digit pitches for the at bat?  He was labeled as being the staff ace (maybe a bit unfairly), and he has not performed as such.

[sveumrules]

Freddy was at a 107 ERA- | 104 FIP- at the break last year, a notch worse than his current 100 ERA- | 91 FIP-.

He followed that up with a monster 64 ERA- | 66 FIP- in the second half last year, so I’ll hope he has something like that in him again this year.

[Samurai Bucky]

12 hours ago, Samurai Bucky said:

He should be on the list for the simple reason that he cannot finish batters like he used to.  How many 0-2 counts did he get to this year where he either walked the batter, or got into a double-digit pitches for the at bat?  He was labeled as being the staff ace (maybe a bit unfairly), and he has not performed as such.

Is it self-serving to quote myself?  Anyway, tonight's effort was worthy of an ace. Well done, Freddy!