2024-25 Offseason Ideas

[SF70]

7 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

You're having an argument with semantics here. Average/Solid are used interchangeably in my original posts. He has a -4 DRS 4.9 UZR 4 OAA at 3B ove the last 3 seasons.

I can justify Moncada just fine without him having a Profar type season. I did it in the rest of the post you didn't quote. Entering his age 30 season makes him one of the younger IF in the FA market. (Torres 28, Adames/Kim/Rosario 29, Moncada/Wade/Hampson 30, Bregman/DeJong/Newman 31, etc.) Moncada has a career 107 wRC+. A 100 wRC+ and average defense at 3B for a couple million would be a perfectly fine stopgap to Wilken/Boeve. If he can't do that it's easy to dump him in season. He's not my first option to bring in as I suggested Torres on a pillow contract.

 

Moncada at a couple million isn’t likely to happen. No idea what his market will be, but I assume it’s well north of that figure. With that being said, a 1 year $10M’ish deal sounds pretty good to me.

 

[Playing Catch]

9 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

For 1 year of a Cy Young SP the Brewers didn't even get a Mayo level prospect...why the heck do you think the Brewers could get Mayo for 1 year of a RP?

I would argue that Hall+Ortiz is at least equal to Mayo alone. I think Hall gets a "prospect-boost," for being left-handed, and Ortiz for being a true plus shortstop. Within the game, those guys can be hard to find. Now, obviously, Hall hasn't looked the part at the big league level yet, so, I can understand why people are down on him. Also, I just have a prejudice against minor league sluggers that don't have a consistently strong batting average, so I'm not a big Mayo guy. Just my opinions.

I think this thread and future threads in this forum will be pretty quiet this upcoming off-season. There simply isn't a lot the Brewers will be doing after they make their 40-man/rule 5 decisions. Sure, the corner-infield spots will need resolution, and there will be tinkering at the bottom of the roster, but there isn't a lot of intrigue other than Devin's return package. They'll need a backup catcher, and I'm sure they'll sign a couple of starting pitchers.

Perhaps they could package Devin and Wilken or Boeve for a young infielder with some experience... Josh Smith, Jordan Westburg, Jake Burger, Jose Miranda, or Mark Vientos all have varying success on teams that may either be motivated by Devin or by prospects.

[BlazingGunz]

What about a Devin for a Ronny Mauricio and some pitching prospect (Tidwell, Vasil, etc) from the Mets.   Mauricio tore his ACL and his been out the entire year - has power/speed and defensive flexibility, can slide right into 3B and fill that hole.    Not sure what his glove looked like at 3B in limited time, but he was a shortstop coming up and also played 2B.

[Scooterfletcher]

46 minutes ago, BlazingGunz said:

What about a Devin for a Ronny Mauricio and some pitching prospect (Tidwell, Vasil, etc) from the Mets.   Mauricio tore his ACL and his been out the entire year - has power/speed and defensive flexibility, can slide right into 3B and fill that hole.    Not sure what his glove looked like at 3B in limited time, but he was a shortstop coming up and also played 2B.

Id rather get Baty and a pitching prospect if dealing with the Mets. 

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I would argue that Hall+Ortiz is at least equal to Mayo alone. I think Hall gets a "prospect-boost," for being left-handed, and Ortiz for being a true plus shortstop. Within the game, those guys can be hard to find. Now, obviously, Hall hasn't looked the part at the big league level yet, so, I can understand why people are down on him. Also, I just have a prejudice against minor league sluggers that don't have a consistently strong batting average, so I'm not a big Mayo guy. Just my opinions.

I think this thread and future threads in this forum will be pretty quiet this upcoming off-season. There simply isn't a lot the Brewers will be doing after they make their 40-man/rule 5 decisions. Sure, the corner-infield spots will need resolution, and there will be tinkering at the bottom of the roster, but there isn't a lot of intrigue other than Devin's return package. They'll need a backup catcher, and I'm sure they'll sign a couple of starting pitchers.

Perhaps they could package Devin and Wilken or Boeve for a young infielder with some experience... Josh Smith, Jordan Westburg, Jake Burger, Jose Miranda, or Mark Vientos all have varying success on teams that may either be motivated by Devin or by prospects.

I could not disagree more that Mayo is equal to or lesser than Ortiz and Hall. Mayo at this point is a basically universal top 15 prospect in the sport. Ortiz was a top 80 prospect and DL Hall a fringe top 100 prospect. A top 15 prospect is worth much more than two prospects in the back half/fringe of the Top 100.

[Redd Vencher]

6 hours ago, SF70 said:

Moncada at a couple million isn’t likely to happen. No idea what his market will be, but I assume it’s well north of that figure. With that being said, a 1 year $10M’ish deal sounds pretty good to me.

 

Nobody is giving Moncada $10 M for 2025 with all the injuries the last 3 seasons.

[SF70]

4 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

Nobody is giving Moncada $10 M for 2025 with all the injuries the last 3 seasons.

Yeah probably not after reading up on his injury history, especially this severe adductor strain suffered this season. 

[BrewerFan]

9 hours ago, BlazingGunz said:

What about a Devin for a Ronny Mauricio and some pitching prospect (Tidwell, Vasil, etc) from the Mets.   Mauricio tore his ACL and his been out the entire year - has power/speed and defensive flexibility, can slide right into 3B and fill that hole.    Not sure what his glove looked like at 3B in limited time, but he was a shortstop coming up and also played 2B.

Do you think Stearns is trading 12+ years for Devin Williams when they've got a closer signed for 100M?

I don't think he will. He may sign FA's, he may spend the payroll that way, but I imagine he'll operate more akin to the Dodgers than the Padres. 

[BrewerFan]

10 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I would argue that Hall+Ortiz is at least equal to Mayo alone. I think Hall gets a "prospect-boost," for being left-handed, and Ortiz for being a true plus shortstop. Within the game, those guys can be hard to find. Now, obviously, Hall hasn't looked the part at the big league level yet, so, I can understand why people are down on him. Also, I just have a prejudice against minor league sluggers that don't have a consistently strong batting average, so I'm not a big Mayo guy. Just my opinions.

Plus....the 34th pick in the draft.

Hall was coming off a dominant run in Sept and the post-season(albeit short). Ortiz was completely blocked. That's likely the biggest difference. 

But it's that Hit Grade that would give me pause. Luke Adams has a 50, Mayo a 45. Adams is the 10th 3B prospect, Mayo #2.

It is an interesting destination. Chris Davis may be the 2nd highest-paid Orioles player next year and they should be getting Bautista back, but I'd think they'd spend this year. 

Burnes should(or could) be back. They should be all in if they don't win it this year. The Phillies are another team that if they come up short, they'd need a CL. I'd happily take Abel+ from them. He's fallen from his lofty prospect status but has trouble with his command. He's the type of arm I'd like to see the Brewers work with. 

 

[nate82]

Not sure the Cardinals would do this but I would be open to acquiring Jordan Walker depending on the price.

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

Not sure the Cardinals would do this but I would be open to acquiring Jordan Walker depending on the price.

I wouldn't if I'm the Cards. He was arguably the best prospect in the division 12 months ago(at least 15 months ago it was debatable).

I cannot figure out why he's struggling other than injuries or he's long, which leads to some guys having issues. 

He's a legit 3B just blocked by one of the best defenders since the 70s over there. 

I'd love it, but the Cards would be foolish to trade him IMO. His value is so much lower than a year ago and he's still got a ton of talent and is so young.

[Playing Catch]

20 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

I could not disagree more that Mayo is equal to or lesser than Ortiz and Hall. Mayo at this point is a basically universal top 15 prospect in the sport. Ortiz was a top 80 prospect and DL Hall a fringe top 100 prospect. A top 15 prospect is worth much more than two prospects in the back half/fringe of the Top 100.

Based on rankings you are absolutely correct. Based on scarcity, however, I'm not sure. There are very few sure-fire, GOOD shortstops that will hit enough to be worth much more than a utility infielder. Left-handers with D.L. Hall's stuff are also premium prospects. Sluggers that rely on taking walks in deep counts that are destined to a corner and offer little other value? Those guys are easier to find on the free agent marketplace, or even in AAA, and they basically HAVE to mash for them to live up to their prospect ranking.

Certainly, Mayo has had a great minor league career, and if he were to replicate those numbers in MLB there is zero doubt that he would be worth more than Ortiz and Hall. I just don't find that very likely. I suspect that he will struggle in MLB, ending up being a have bat, will travel guy in the mold of Hunter Renfroe, or Gary Sanchez.

But I realize I'm probably in the minority. I'm not trying to change your mind.

[Scooterfletcher]

27 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

Based on rankings you are absolutely correct. Based on scarcity, however, I'm not sure. There are very few sure-fire, GOOD shortstops that will hit enough to be worth much more than a utility infielder. Left-handers with D.L. Hall's stuff are also premium prospects. Sluggers that rely on taking walks in deep counts that are destined to a corner and offer little other value? Those guys are easier to find on the free agent marketplace, or even in AAA, and they basically HAVE to mash for them to live up to their prospect ranking.

Certainly, Mayo has had a great minor league career, and if he were to replicate those numbers in MLB there is zero doubt that he would be worth more than Ortiz and Hall. I just don't find that very likely. I suspect that he will struggle in MLB, ending up being a have bat, will travel guy in the mold of Hunter Renfroe, or Gary Sanchez.

But I realize I'm probably in the minority. I'm not trying to change your mind.

His cup of coffee for the Orioles has Mayo with one hit and a .259 OPS in just 17 at bats.   

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

38 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

Based on rankings you are absolutely correct. Based on scarcity, however, I'm not sure. There are very few sure-fire, GOOD shortstops that will hit enough to be worth much more than a utility infielder. Left-handers with D.L. Hall's stuff are also premium prospects. Sluggers that rely on taking walks in deep counts that are destined to a corner and offer little other value? Those guys are easier to find on the free agent marketplace, or even in AAA, and they basically HAVE to mash for them to live up to their prospect ranking.

Certainly, Mayo has had a great minor league career, and if he were to replicate those numbers in MLB there is zero doubt that he would be worth more than Ortiz and Hall. I just don't find that very likely. I suspect that he will struggle in MLB, ending up being a have bat, will travel guy in the mold of Hunter Renfroe, or Gary Sanchez.

But I realize I'm probably in the minority. I'm not trying to change your mind.

A big part of the perceived "value" is age-related as well. Joey Ortiz just turned 26, and DL Hall will be 26 in September, so they are looked at by the industry as near finished products. Coby Mayo is only 22, though, and has more theoretical upside because of that. 

[Playing Catch]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

A big part of the perceived "value" is age-related as well. Joey Ortiz just turned 26, and DL Hall will be 26 in September, so they are looked at by the industry as near finished products. Coby Mayo is only 22, though, and has more theoretical upside because of that. 

This is an excellent point. I hadn't considered this. In addition, it is probably one of the reasons that they have high floors.

I've also been wondering lately if the Brewers don't mind older rookies at all, since the team control extends beyond their peak years.

[Scooterfletcher]

Basically, I am just saying that Mayo struggled in his cup of coffee at the big league level recently and might not have a starting spot on this stacked Orioles team.   If they can get Williams and maybe a deal that expands some to their liking (say getting DL Hall back as the second piece for instance as just something off the top of my head).

Maybe both teams would do Mayo for Williams and Hall.   Idk but it’s worth exploring….

[Scooterfletcher]

On a separate note,  I don’t know what he’d cost via trade but I’d love to deal with the Braves and obtain Grant Holmes in the deal.   28 year old rookie but he was my guy coming out his draft year that I wanted mke to draft.  He sure looked good his start against us but has since moved back to the bullpen.   Lots of control left for him and I think he could be a good starter for us next year if we can acquire him. 

[jay87shot]

On 8/22/2024 at 10:34 AM, Scooterfletcher said:

On a separate note,  I don’t know what he’d cost via trade but I’d love to deal with the Braves and obtain Grant Holmes in the deal.   28 year old rookie but he was my guy coming out his draft year that I wanted mke to draft.  He sure looked good his start against us but has since moved back to the bullpen.   Lots of control left for him and I think he could be a good starter for us next year if we can acquire him. 

Holmes has been solid, 3.42 era in 50 innings 50/10 k/bb, 2.93 FIP. My guess is Holmes wouldn't be cheap (not crazy value either). I did like what I saw the game we played them as well.

I don't know if I posted this before but what about Sandy Alcantara? The Marlins have Eury Perez, Alcantara, Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, and Ryan Weathers on the 60 man (some out all year). My guess is that the price would be high but Alcantara is one I would pony up for even coming off his injury. Would Black, Mitchell/Perkins, and like Peguero or pitching prospect be to much/little. He has 3 affordable years of control.

It would be nice to add a controllable top of the rotation arm at the top of the rotation, especially an anchor like Alcantara.

[jay87shot]

I saw David Bednar got roughed up again and his era is over 6. He could be an interesting trade candidate. He has 2 years and probably won't get a huge raise from his 4 million this year. He still throws hard, isnt walking a huge amount, and has good secondary stuff, it just looks like his heater is getting lit up. 

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I saw David Bednar got roughed up again and his era is over 6. He could be an interesting trade candidate. He has 2 years and probably won't get a huge raise from his 4 million this year. He still throws hard, isnt walking a huge amount, and has good secondary stuff, it just looks like his heater is getting lit up. 

He will get a solid raise. A bad year isn't going to hurt the steady increase in the arb process because the arb process looks at your career not your most recent season. For his career he has a 3.18 ERA, 3.12 FIP and 84 saves. 

[BrewerFan]

On 8/28/2024 at 7:04 PM, wiguy94 said:

He will get a solid raise. A bad year isn't going to hurt the steady increase in the arb process because the arb process looks at your career not your most recent season. For his career he has a 3.18 ERA, 3.12 FIP and 84 saves. 

They look at your career, but they weigh your most recent season the heaviest. 

He will get a healthy raise, but more importantly, unless the Pirates think he's washed, why would they move off him?

Next year should be a year they're targeting to try and start competing. With Skenes, Jones and then three more young arms, power arms in AAA. That window is opening and they're going to be competitive moving forward. 

[James Zumstein]

Trade Proposal:

OF Sal Frelick to MIN for 3B Jose Miranda

Miranda: Age: 26 yrs, 6’ 2”, 210 R/R

   Arb. Eligible: 2026 (2024 salary = $740,000)

   2024: 370 ABs: .300/.339/.465 = .804 OPS

    2024 bWAR = 2.2 (O = 2.2, D = -0.1)

    BTV Median Value = 22.5

Frelick: Age: 24 yrs, 5’ 8”, 185 L/R

                Arb. Eligible: 2027 (2024 salary = $747,000)

                2024: 418 ABs: .263/.330/.340 = .670 OPS

                2024 bWAR = 1.9 (O = 0.8, D = 0.8)

                BTV Median Value = 29.2

For the Brewers, this ensures consistent playing time in the outfield for Chourio (LF), Perkins (CF), and Mitchell (RF), with Yelich being DH versus RHP, with Yelich (LF), Perkins (CF), and Chourio (RF) in the field versus LHP. On the infield, we would have Miranda (3B), Ortiz (SS), Turang (2B) and Bauers/Hoskins at 1B.

For the Twins, it provides them with depth in an outfield that is always looking to get CF Byron Buxton some rest days, and will likely lose both starting corner outfielders, Manuel Margot and Max Kepler, this offseason.  Frelick provides that depth at all three outfield spots.  It also opens up consistent playing time on the infield for Royce Lewis and top prospect Brooks Lee next to SS Carlos Correa.     

[sveumrules]

38 minutes ago, James Zumstein said:

Trade Proposal:

OF Sal Frelick to MIN for 3B Jose Miranda

Miranda: Age: 26 yrs, 6’ 2”, 210 R/R

   Arb. Eligible: 2026 (2024 salary = $740,000)

   2024: 370 ABs: .300/.339/.465 = .804 OPS

    2024 bWAR = 2.2 (O = 2.2, D = -0.1)

    BTV Median Value = 22.5

Frelick: Age: 24 yrs, 5’ 8”, 185 L/R

                Arb. Eligible: 2027 (2024 salary = $747,000)

                2024: 418 ABs: .263/.330/.340 = .670 OPS

                2024 bWAR = 1.9 (O = 0.8, D = 0.8)

                BTV Median Value = 29.2

For the Brewers, this ensures consistent playing time in the outfield for Chourio (LF), Perkins (CF), and Mitchell (RF), with Yelich being DH versus RHP, with Yelich (LF), Perkins (CF), and Chourio (RF) in the field versus LHP. On the infield, we would have Miranda (3B), Ortiz (SS), Turang (2B) and Bauers/Hoskins at 1B.

For the Twins, it provides them with depth in an outfield that is always looking to get CF Byron Buxton some rest days, and will likely lose both starting corner outfielders, Manuel Margot and Max Kepler, this offseason.  Frelick provides that depth at all three outfield spots.  It also opens up consistent playing time on the infield for Royce Lewis and top prospect Brooks Lee next to SS Carlos Correa.     

Nice proposal. A lot would probably depend on how the Brewers view Miranda’s glove at 3B.

DRS has him at an even zero over his 1,173 career innings, but OAA is a little harsher at -12 which ranks 29th of 32 third basemen from 2022-24 with at least 1,000 innings.

Could also see the Brewers holding onto their OF depth given Mitchell’s injury history and some uncertainty about how Yelich will bounce back.

[James Zumstein]

4 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Nice proposal. A lot would probably depend on how the Brewers view Miranda’s glove at 3B.

DRS has him at an even zero over his 1,173 career innings, but OAA is a little harsher at -12 which ranks 29th of 32 third basemen from 2022-24 with at least 1,000 innings.

Could also see the Brewers holding onto their OF depth given Mitchell’s injury history and some uncertainty about how Yelich will bounce back.

Thanks for your comments.  I agree about the defense.  Probably why Frelick has a higher value on BTV despite lower offensive output.

[DuWayne Steurer]

42 minutes ago, James Zumstein said:

Trade Proposal:

OF Sal Frelick to MIN for 3B Jose Miranda

Miranda: Age: 26 yrs, 6’ 2”, 210 R/R

   Arb. Eligible: 2026 (2024 salary = $740,000)

   2024: 370 ABs: .300/.339/.465 = .804 OPS

    2024 bWAR = 2.2 (O = 2.2, D = -0.1)

    BTV Median Value = 22.5

Frelick: Age: 24 yrs, 5’ 8”, 185 L/R

                Arb. Eligible: 2027 (2024 salary = $747,000)

                2024: 418 ABs: .263/.330/.340 = .670 OPS

                2024 bWAR = 1.9 (O = 0.8, D = 0.8)

                BTV Median Value = 29.2

For the Brewers, this ensures consistent playing time in the outfield for Chourio (LF), Perkins (CF), and Mitchell (RF), with Yelich being DH versus RHP, with Yelich (LF), Perkins (CF), and Chourio (RF) in the field versus LHP. On the infield, we would have Miranda (3B), Ortiz (SS), Turang (2B) and Bauers/Hoskins at 1B.

For the Twins, it provides them with depth in an outfield that is always looking to get CF Byron Buxton some rest days, and will likely lose both starting corner outfielders, Manuel Margot and Max Kepler, this offseason.  Frelick provides that depth at all three outfield spots.  It also opens up consistent playing time on the infield for Royce Lewis and top prospect Brooks Lee next to SS Carlos Correa.     

Nice breakdown. It's often a fallacy of trade proposals that we don't look at a trade from the opposing team"s POV but this breaks down nicely why this is a decent deal for the Twins. Losing Adames is going to suck, but there's no reason we can't prepare appropriately for a future without him.