Brewer Fanatic 2024 Offseason Top 20 Prospect - No. 1: Jacob Misiorowski

[Spencer Michaelis]

Welcome back to the final edition of Brewer Fanatic's 2024 top 20 prospect breakdown! In this edition, we will take a deep dive look at Jacob Misiorowski. Misiorowski is the new number one prospect in the system, as voted on and compiled by the Brewer Fanatic community.

Image courtesy of © Curt Hogg / USA TODAY NETWORK

#1 Jacob Misiorowski (Biloxi Shuckers, Nashville Sounds)

In terms of pure ceiling, the Brewers' second-round selection in the 2022 draft has one of the highest in baseball. A junior college standout from Crowder College in Missouri, Misiorowski is a freak athlete on the mound, with long levers and a blazing fastball. Since selecting Misiorowski, the Brewers have been extremely cautious in managing his workload. He only appeared in two games in 2022 and was built up very slowly in 2023. In 2024, they managed the workload differently, as he began the season making starts but finished in the bullpen. During that time, he moved from Double-A, where he had started the season, to Triple-A, where he would ultimately finish it. He continued to show his immense potential along the way, but also the qualities that have evaluators hesitant to label him a starting pitcher in the long term.

What to Like:
Misiorowski has, arguably, the most electric fastball in the minor leagues. Sitting in the 96-99 range most of the time, he has proven capable of running it up all the way to 102 in shorter stints. Not only does his fastball have 80-grade velocity, but it also has really good characteristics. Despite being 6’7", he releases the ball at just over five feet off the ground, which helps him generate a Vertical Approach Angle of -4.1, an elite number. Misiorowski also gets an insane 7.4 feet of extension, which would have finished in the 99th percentile in MLB this past season. 

His fastball compares extremely well to Zach Wheeler’s regarding release height, movement, and extension. However, Misiorowski’s fastball is thrown a couple of miles per hour harder than Wheeler’s. The consensus is that somebody with around 6.5 feet of extension will have essentially the same perceived velocity as their actual velocity. Each foot of extension beyond that adds about two MPH from the hitter's point of view. That means that a 98 MPH fastball from Misiorowski looks like 100, and if he runs it up to 102, it looks like 104.

His fastball is his best pitch, but his secondaries don’t lag far behind. His slider has long been considered his best secondary offering, and it is a very good pitch, sitting in the low 90s with more of a cutter shape than a true slider. It missed a lot of bats at the lower levels but was more of a barrel-missing pitch for him in Triple-A, as he only generated whiffs at a 16.7% rate. 

His mid-80s curveball made a huge leap in 2023 and got even better in 2024. The curve shows a big, late drop with an above-average sweep, and hitters take it for many strikes because of how tough it is to pick up. It also became his primary “out pitch” in 2024, as he used it far more often than the slider. At the Triple-A level, the curveball generated an elite chase rate of 39.6% and a similarly elite whiff rate of 41%. It has surpassed the slider as his best secondary and is a borderline 70-grade pitch. 

What to Work On:
It’s not a secret that Misiorowski has command concerns. It was the main knock on him during the draft, and it has followed him early in his career. A walk rate of 14.39% and over five walks per nine innings is not something he will be able to get away with in MLB, especially if he wants to continue down the path of being a starting pitcher. 

Along those lines, there is still concern over whether Misiorowski will end up being forced into a full time relief role at some point. His delivery does involve a lot of effort, and has a lot of moving parts. From the time he was drafted to the present, there has been quite a bit of improvement in terms of repeating his mechanics and staying within himself more often, so he will look to continue to build upon that. Adding some bulk to his frame could help keep the body in sync more consistently. 

While his fastball, slider and curveball combination have done the majority of the work for Misiorowski, he does also throw a changeup. The changeup is a distant fourth offering at the moment, and one he never actually broke out in Triple-A. He has very little command over it and is almost completely unable to throw it for strikes. The pitch shows signs of having good, late depth on it, but if he can’t learn to command it better he will likely need to scrap it, which he may have already done. 

What’s next:
Misiorowski has moved very quickly through the Brewers system. He will almost certainly begin 2025 back in Triple-A Nashville. The bigger question is whether they will have him starting games, or if he will be preparing for a bullpen role in MLB. His stuff is good enough to pitch in the majors right now, especially in that aforementioned bullpen role. He showed a better ability to hold his velocity deeper into games in 2024, which means if he can make strides with his command (a big if), then starting games should still be on the table. Either way, assuming full health, it feels like a safe assumption that Misiorowski will make his MLB debut in 2025. The role in which that will happen is all that’s left to find out.

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What are your thoughts on Misiorowski? What are you hoping to see from him in 2025? Do you think he can stick as a starter? Let us know in the comments!

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[SF70]

Can’t be the team’s #1 prospect with such a high reliever risk can he?

 

[jay87shot]

I put Misi one because the reliever risk doesn't worry me much because of the quality reliever he would be. On top of that we have seen lots of relievers go back to starting after maturing and getting there stuff tuned in.

My Misi projection is likely something like this. He starts like 15 games in AAA and the walk rate is a tad better but still to high. HE gets called up to the bigs as a reliever and does fine. Next year he has a Hader like role in Hader's role from his 1st year. Then in 2027 goes back to the rotation ala Garrett Crochet with his walk rate now at 10% or lower.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

The upside is to be one of the better SP in baseball.  I think that alone makes him our #1 prospect.

[Spencer Michaelis]

4 hours ago, SF70 said:

Can’t be the team’s #1 prospect with such a high reliever risk can he?

 

I think that's a fair POV for sure. It's the main reason he isn't my number one. But the pure upside of being a legit ace is also a solid reason to vote him so highly I think. So I get how he ended up here.

[CheeseheadInQC]

5 hours ago, SF70 said:

Can’t be the team’s #1 prospect with such a high reliever risk can he?

 

Quero is coming off surgery on his throwing arm, with Pratt there are power questions, Made and Pena have only played in the DSL. There is no Jackson Chourio, this is the guy, type prospect. Hopefully by this time next season, Quero will have shown no ill effects, Misiorowski will have improved his command enough to stick in the rotation, Pratt will look like a 25-homer type guy, and Made and Pena will have successfully burst onto the A-ball scene. For now, though, it is which question mark are you most willing to look past for the upside.

[SF70]

We haven’t had a prospect like Made since Chourio. He has to be our #1 prospect on potential superstardom alone, right?

[James Zumstein]

2 hours ago, SF70 said:

We haven’t had a prospect like Made since Chourio. He has to be our #1 prospect on potential superstardom alone, right?

While I agree with you that Made may end up being the biggest star of all players currently in our minor league system, choosing who is currently the best prospects should be taken on both potential and proximity to the big leagues.  All players need to prove they can continue to perform as they climb the ladder.  If Made does what he did this year at Carolina, then he will likely be #1 next year. 

[SF70]

If Made does for Carolina what he did in the DSL, he’ll not only be our #1 prospect, but quite possibly the #1 prospect in baseball.

 

[Matt]

I had him at #4, behind Made, Quero, and Gasser. Felt like a good compromise between the iffy chance he remains a starter and the almost certainty of being an all-world reliever. 

[BrewerFan]

5 hours ago, SF70 said:

We haven’t had a prospect like Made since Chourio. He has to be our #1 prospect on potential superstardom alone, right?

Yeah, I went with Pratt over Made because I break it down into 70% upside, 30% chance of hitting it.

So I had Quero(AS starting C upside)-and I don't think the shoulder is that big of a deal. He's not a pitcher.
Then Pratt, Made and then Mis...because while I think he's got a massive upside, I actually think he's got less of a chance to hit it and more of a chance to be a reliever. Which is fine, it's just much less valuable if that happens.

 

I think Pratt will end up close to the type of prospect Chourio is and I think just by virtue of hitting AA(for whatever reason) he's more likely to play in AmFam. That could change very early next year, but right now, Pratt seems like a JJ Hardy type defender who I think will hit 25-30 HRs and be a better hitter. The Gunnar comp is ambitious, but...80% of Gunnar is a helluva prospect.

Quero is at worse an elite defender who will hit ~.250/.325/.375 IMO and that's very valuable. Could hit better. 

Made....his upside is Chourio playing elite D at SS or 3B.

Mis hasn't thrown more than 80 innings yet. I'm a big fan, but he has a long way to go to become an ace, he could make a big impact next year. The fear with him is he has a great first year or two, injury misses 16 months, he's in arbitration and now he's toward the end of his team control. 

So if he comes out late next year and throws like we hope(I'm guessing 2-3 innings out of the pen Aug-Sept) then I'd look for one of those 6-year 40M extensions with a couple of option years for 25M per.  

[BrewerFan]

4 hours ago, Matt said:

I had him at #4, behind Made, Quero, and Gasser. Felt like a good compromise between the iffy chance he remains a starter and the almost certainty of being an all-world reliever. 

That's pretty damn high on Gasser. Certainly hope you're right. 

[sveumrules]

36 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Mis hasn't thrown more than 80 innings yet.

Misio had 79.2 IP at Biloxi last year and then another 17.2 at Nashville to finish the season.

[Playing Catch]

Can anyone think of another top prospect that was able to halve his BB% from age 22 to say, age 25? Because I think that is close to what he would need to do in order to be a good MLB starter, let alone reach his ceiling.

[CheeseheadInQC]

45 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

Can anyone think of another top prospect that was able to halve his BB% from age 22 to say, age 25? Because I think that is close to what he would need to do in order to be a good MLB starter, let alone reach his ceiling.

Clayton Kershaw

[sveumrules]

 

4 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Clayton Kershaw

Yeah, CK was at an 11.1 BB% over age 20 to 22 and was down to 4.4% for age 25 to 30.

Wheeler was another one that popped to mind. Looks like he was at a 10.2 BB% ages 23-24, missed two whole years injured and has been at 6.0% from age 28 to 34.

Burnes even kinda fits with an 8.8 BB% age 23 to 25 followed by a 5.8% for ages 26-27.

Big Unit is the all time example with a 14.8 BB% from age 25 to 28 followed by a 7.4% from age 29 to 41.

Or Koufax for the old heads with a 13.3 BB% age 19 to 24 followed by a 6.4% age 25 to 30.

[Playing Catch]

So there's at least a couple of examples out there. That's good.

I don't know where to find some accessible advanced stats, but in looking at the tiny AAA sample from his 2024 season on Fangraphs, it looks like he has elite "plate discipline" numbers across the board except on Z-Swing%, where his 57.7% wouldn't even come close to cracking the top 126 top MLBers (against commensurate competition). He just doesn't get guys swinging often enough. They just sit up there looking for a walk.

I wonder if the org has toyed with the idea of going the Burnes route, and having Misiorowski learn that primary-pitch, firm cutter, and use the 4-seamer as a swing-and-miss pitch. Just scrap the change altogether, and limit the breaking balls to 0-2, 1-2 counts.