The Brewers Are Still Taking Extra Bases, But Have Gotten Much Worse at Stealing Them

[Jack Stern]

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Taking extra bases has once again been integral to the identity of a Brewers offense that lacks power throughout the lineup. Being opportunistic and aggressive on the bases is partially why Milwaukee has a capable 101 wRC+ despite a .385 slugging percentage that ranks 22nd in baseball; they force defenses out of shape and speed up the clock of plays once the ball is hit. According to FanGraphs, the Brewers lead baseball in baserunning runs for the second year in a row. That's because they remain unmatched at taking extra bases on balls in play, leading the sport with 10 runs via extra bases taken.

In one way, though, they've been demonstrably worse. When Anthony Seigler and Brice Turang were each caught trying to steal second base on Monday night in Seattle, it increased Milwaukee's league-leading caught stealing total to 38.

The Brewers have gone from the cream of the crop in base-stealing execution to the middle of the pack. After accruing a league-leading 13 runs via stolen bases last season, they're down to 1 run this year, which ranks 13th. Their stolen base success rate has plummeted from 84% to a below-average 75%, falling shy of the commonly cited 80% benchmark that makes steal attempts no-brainers.

There are a few leading culprits on an individual level. Turang's abrupt decline on the bases jumps out the most, and newcomers like Caleb Durbin have been less successful than their past counterparts. Still, several additional Brewers have taken steps back in the stolen base department.

Player	SB% (2024)	SB% (2025)	Change
Jake Bauers	92.9%	100.0%	+7.1%
Jackson Chourio	75.9%	70.8%	-5.0%
William Contreras	81.8%	71.4%	-10.4%
Sal Frelick	85.7%	81.0%	-4.8%
Joey Ortiz	64.7%	75.0%	10.3%
Brice Turang	89.3%	72.0%	-17.3%
Christian Yelich	91.3%	73.7%	-17.6%

"I think that one of the reasons it's down is because everybody knows that's what we're going to do, and they're defending it because they're the best in the world at what they do," Pat Murphy said. "So they're going to defend it. We're still going to press the issue when we can. But yeah, it's concerning that our percentage is down."

Baseball is a game of inches and milliseconds, particularly baserunning. It doesn't take much for stolen base success to swing noticeably in either direction from one year to the next. Rather than any singular issue, the regression appears to stem from a combination of factors.

In some instances, the Brewers have deprived themselves of bases they otherwise had stolen with poor slides, such as Caleb Durbin oversliding second base against the Pirates last month.

Here's Joey Ortiz committing the opposite offense, hitting the ground too early and slowing his momentum with his slide. Originally called safe, he was ruled out upon review.

"I can name six or seven where the guy didn't explode through his slide, we slid off the bag, or the guy looked in thinking something else and slowed up," Murphy said. "I mean, literally six or seven. And if you change those six or seven, our percentage doesn't look as bad."

To Murphy's point about exploding through a slide, compare Sal Frelick's slide on a successful steal in April 2024…

…to a slower-looking slide from April of this season in which he seems to crash into the base.

Indecisiveness on steal attempts has been a running theme. A well-timed and explosive break is the key to stealing a base, and Murphy sees more hesitancy in those jumps this season.

"They know that the word's out, and they know people are going to make big adjustments to hold our running game intact, and they're kind of caught in between [on] how to handle that."

[READ MORE: Matthew Trueblood wrote about Turang's degradation in getting leads and jumps on steal attempts, earlier this momth.]

As an example, here's William Contreras getting a late jump off Jake Irvin on the Brewers' last homestand for an easy caught stealing.

In a fitting analogy, Murphy compared swiping bases to another kind of stealing.

"It's like you're a jewel thief," he said. "You can't worry about getting caught. You've got to be willing to steal the base and willing to face the consequences of getting caught."

Right now, his team is worrying about that, and it shows up in the numbers. Taking all stolen base opportunities—pitches with a runner on base and an open base in front of them—the Brewers are gaining just 3.1 feet toward the next base between the pitcher's first move and their release of the pitch, which ranks—stunningly—dead last in the majors. If you isolate actual steal attempts, when that metric measures jumps rather than just secondary leads, they move up to the average range—but that's from an initial lead distance that ranks 22nd in baseball. This team just isn't getting the extra few inches (or even feet) available at the front ends of steal attempts, either.

Perhaps the Brewers are feeling the absence of former first base coach Quintin Berry, whom players lauded for his ability to read pitchers and relay those cues to help runners time their jumps. (Actually stealing or not, the team got better primary and secondary leads last year than they're getting this year.) It could be a mental block that has materialized from a few unsuccessful attempts. Whatever the cause, it's clear that they are not firing on all cylinders in one of their strengths. That won't stop Murphy and his coaching staff from asking his players to run, though.

"You've got to be good at it," Murphy said. "You can't play on this team if you're not good at it, unless you really slug. I don't know if you've been watching, but we don't have many guys that really slug."

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[MattK]

Dang Cubs, stealing Quintin Berry.

[Ron750]

I think the Brewers miss Quintin Berry more than Counsell. I think Murphy is much better at handling young players and he’s definitely a hell of a lot more fun than Counsell.  

[Joseph Zarr]

AND, yet, despite it all Babe Bauers still stands out and shines brightest amongst his peers. A Cy Young candidate on the bump. A Legend on the base paths. He even plays 1st base and the OF. Rumor has it he is also available (and a real whiz) for children's parties. 

[igor67]

Berry makes the most sense as an explanation since they are still taking the extra bases and that is more of a function of the 3rd base coach.