Running 2026 MLB Draft Thread

[nate82]

10 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

6'1 270lb 1B who has a 115 wRC+ doesn't really feel like a guy who profiles as a late 1st value. For example Blake Burke in his draft year had a 147 wRC+. Sasaki also performed really poorly on the Cape last summer.

But a 4th-7th round pick?  I think he is closer to an early 2nd or late 1st than he is to a 4th-7th that I have seen floating around.  There have been players who played great in the cape and did nothing after being drafted.  The Brewers have drafted a few of those players in the past.  The Cape is a good barometer for players but in no way am I taking that as anything more than another data point.  He may have just slumped through the Cape that summer or just hit into bad luck.  

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, nate82 said:

But a 4th-7th round pick?  I think he is closer to an early 2nd or late 1st than he is to a 4th-7th that I have seen floating around.  There have been players who played great in the cape and did nothing after being drafted.  The Brewers have drafted a few of those players in the past.  The Cape is a good barometer for players but in no way am I taking that as anything more than another data point.  He may have just slumped through the Cape that summer or just hit into bad luck.  

What I've read on him, a 4th to 7th seems way more on point than where someone like Burke who was a significantly better college player went. Why do you think he should be picked where Burke did?

[nate82]

5 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Why do you think he should be picked where Burke did?

Power wise I think he is better than Burke it just hasn’t shown in game yet.  I also think he is a better hitter overall than Burke and he has more potential.  

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Power wise I think he is better than Burke it just hasn’t shown in game yet.  I also think he is a better hitter overall than Burke and he has more potential.  

Why do you think that?

[nate82]

He has massive power and has a similar approach as Prince had.  The weight is the biggest issue to me but he has the power and the hitting ability to be better than he has been in college.  I think he is closer to 80 power and will be a regular 30-40 HR hitter while still hitting I the .270’s and getting on base at a decent clip.

This is also only his second year in the US coming from Japan.  Sometimes it takes some time to adjust for these type of players going from one country to another.  
 

The bat speed is there and he is right around the K mark that Burke was at.  So it’s not like he is striking out more than Burke did.  The results are just not where his true talent level is.  

[wiguy94]

3 minutes ago, nate82 said:

He has massive power and has a similar approach as Prince had.  The weight is the biggest issue to me but he has the power and the hitting ability to be better than he has been in college.  I think he is closer to 80 power and will be a regular 30-40 HR hitter while still hitting I the .270’s and getting on base at a decent clip.

This is also only his second year in the US coming from Japan.  Sometimes it takes some time to adjust for these type of players going from one country to another.  
 

The bat speed is there and he is right around the K mark that Burke was at.  So it’s not like he is striking out more than Burke did.  The results are just not where his true talent level is.  

This is his third year in the US. He played in the draft league and Appy league in 2024. How do you know the bat speed is there? Do you have his bat speed numbers? Do you have his EV numbers? Maybe you're right. Could very well be. As someone who knows nothing about him though it doesn't feel like a very convincing argument. If he was flashing bat speed or EV of an 80 raw power guy, I think there would be a lot more draft hype on him even with his more solid to good than good to great production.

[nate82]

27 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

How do you know the bat speed is there?

From scouts that I have talked with.  Also he has a lot of high exit velocities.  He has a few close to 110.  Launch angle is usually around 30 degrees.  

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28 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

This is his third year in the US. He played in the draft league and Appy league in 2024.

I don’t count that as it’s not a full season of baseball.  I should have stated his second full year of playing baseball in the US. That was like 35 games so just a bit over a half of a season of college baseball.  

[wiguy94]

Just now, nate82 said:

From scouts that I have talked with.  Also he has a lot of high exit velocities.  He has a few close to 110.  Launch angle is usually around 30 degrees.  

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I don’t count that as it’s not a full season of baseball.  I should have stated his second full year of playing baseball in the US. That was like 35 games so just a bit over a half of a season of college baseball.  

110 EV with metal bats in college isn't close to 80 raw power though. Blake Burke's college max EV was 117 for reference.

[nate82]

12 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

110 EV with metal bats in college isn't close to 80 raw power though. Blake Burke's college max EV was 117 for reference.

107 in the summer league with a wooden bat.

https://www.mlb.com/video/rintaro-sasaki-s-430-foot-homer

[Spencer Michaelis]

On 4/24/2026 at 6:29 PM, wiguy94 said:

110 EV with metal bats in college isn't close to 80 raw power though. Blake Burke's college max EV was 117 for reference.

On 4/24/2026 at 6:42 PM, nate82 said:

107 in the summer league with a wooden bat.

https://www.mlb.com/video/rintaro-sasaki-s-430-foot-homer

Little late to the party, but yeah 107 with wood is nothing special. It's fine, but Eric Brown Jr was doing that in college. Luis Lara is the same age as Sasaki and he got up to 110 last year with wood, and he's 5'7.

That said, that's just a random output and I'm sure he's been higher than that at times with wood, and his EV's compare very favorably to the rest of college baseball this season, though I'm not sure what the exact numbers are. He's definitely made some legitimate strides though, and I know for sure that he has been up to at least 114 MPH this year. I think he's a fringy day one guy, but not sure he's one I'd be overly interested in the Brewers drafting at that point. Maybe a bit more intrigued if not for Burke's existence and so many other potential first base options in the upper levels right now.

Here is Burke's data from his final season FWIW. Much better bat-to-ball and a bit higher EV's, worse swing decisions.

[jay87shot]

All it takes is one team to think the power bat is worth it, he does have a near 1 to 1 bb/k ratio. I wouldn't take a guy that big that early. If I was a scout I would feel like I could find elite power with some other decent tool(s). I would probably say he is a 3rd round or later pick without watching much on him and going on profile alone.

[nate82]

The more I think about it I think Zion Rose is the pick at 25 if he is still there.  The only knock is his defense where he is only average in LF.  He is very athletic at 6'1" and 200lbs.  If he is there at 25 I think this is the pick for the Brewers.

 

[wiguy94]

6 hours ago, nate82 said:

The more I think about it I think Zion Rose is the pick at 25 if he is still there.  The only knock is his defense where he is only average in LF.  He is very athletic at 6'1" and 200lbs.  If he is there at 25 I think this is the pick for the Brewers.

 

Could Brewers pull a Dinges and move him back behind the plate at catcher or is that just a total no go?

[nate82]

33 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Could Brewers pull a Dinges and move him back behind the plate at catcher or is that just a total no go?

I don’t think he has the arm to play catcher.  1B or DH are also possibilities if LF doesn’t work out. Offensively he profiles well at any position really.

[jay87shot]

MLB.com put out a new top 150 for the draft. Its alway interesting to see updates. Here are some players I think could be of interest that aren't 1st rounders.

#98 OF Will Gasparino UCLA     6'6" power bat putting up a very solid .337/.442/.712 with 18 HR (only 5 2B). MLB gives him a 55 run (only 2 sb) 55 arm, and 55 feild. For a second round pick to save $ or a 3rd rounder that sounds solid.

#99 C Carson Tinney Texas  6'4" 240 catcher usually move positions. Like Gasparino the bat is really good .338/.487/.723 16 HR. He seems like a bigger version of Dinges which would clearly be good value 2nd round or later.

#102 C Sean Dunlap (Indy Hs)  A bigger catcher prospect with solid tools across the board. I will admit it is the Indiana HS prospect that catches my eye with the success Ginger Paulson has had.

#89 P/SS Cole Koeninger  I am always a bit to high on 2 way players. But he looks like a potential power bat maybe a bit in the mold of Bitonti or an upside young athletic pitcher.

#87 P Ryan Lynch   He seems to have underachieved (vs. expectations) this year at UNC but his stuff sounds good) mid 90's power sinker, good depth mid 80's slider that if he doesn't develop a 3rd pitch he should be a really good reliever.

 

[wiguy94]

Historically speaking the Brewers have really struggled at developing the power over hit corner prospects. The Brewers have invested considerable money in these profiles the last 3 drafts (Wilken, Bitonti, Burke, Fischer).

How do we feel the return on their investment has been so far? Personally speaking I'm not yet buying into the Brewers figuring out how to develop this profile based on the early results. Not sure I'd like seeing the Brewers tap back into that profile again this year.

[James Zumstein]

On 5/8/2026 at 2:55 PM, wiguy94 said:

Historically speaking the Brewers have really struggled at developing the power over hit corner prospects. The Brewers have invested considerable money in these profiles the last 3 drafts (Wilken, Bitonti, Burke, Fischer).

How do we feel the return on their investment has been so far? Personally speaking I'm not yet buying into the Brewers figuring out how to develop this profile based on the early results. Not sure I'd like seeing the Brewers tap back into that profile again this year.

I couldn't agree more. I've been waiting for them to use a first-rounder on a corner OF, preferably a RF with a strong arm, for a while, but it never materializes. And looking at the likely top players when we pick at #25, I wouldn't anticipate it this year either. Those of us who really analyze the Brewers drafts and their "type" of player will see there aren't a lot of advanced college hitters that fit that profile this year, especially at the picks we will be selecting. That's why I'm becoming more and more convinced that we break our streak of hitters and go college arms early, including the first round. Which means that is unlikely to happen and we still take a college bat.

[Tedaldtada]

On 5/8/2026 at 2:55 PM, wiguy94 said:

Historically speaking the Brewers have really struggled at developing the power over hit corner prospects. The Brewers have invested considerable money in these profiles the last 3 drafts (Wilken, Bitonti, Burke, Fischer).

How do we feel the return on their investment has been so far? Personally speaking I'm not yet buying into the Brewers figuring out how to develop this profile based on the early results. Not sure I'd like seeing the Brewers tap back into that profile again this year.

I’m pretty happy honestly. All four you named look to be decent bets to make the majors in some form or fashion. None of them are slugs on defense. They have some baserunning ability to varying degrees. And each has shown good on-base ability in spite of contact related issues. The Brewers were spot on with their power eval of each. They hit lots of dingerz. I’m giving these four profiles a long leash.

[wiguy94]

6 hours ago, Tedaldtada said:

I’m pretty happy honestly. All four you named look to be decent bets to make the majors in some form or fashion. None of them are slugs on defense. They have some baserunning ability to varying degrees. And each has shown good on-base ability in spite of contact related issues. The Brewers were spot on with their power eval of each. They hit lots of dingerz. I’m giving these four profiles a long leash.

I agree those four players should get very long leashes but that's not really the question I was asking. I'm asking if we have seen enough development from those four to continue to heavily invest bonus pool into these type of prospects. These four guys have combined to account for about 28% of the Brewers bonus pool the last three drafts especially when the Brewers have shown to excel in developing more contact oriented profiles and pitchers.

[mudbutt]

I think so, I compare it to drafting pass rushers in the first round of the NFL. Even though the bust rate is high for them, it is a premium position and like power in MLB, high risk but HIGH reward. And considering the Brewers have shown the ability to draft other types and pitching later in the draft, I think it is a good idea to keep hunting for power early in the draft. And you also get the boon of the international signings, which lessens the impact if you miss on these guys so you might as well as swing for the fences (sorry).

[wiguy94]

13 minutes ago, mudbutt said:

I think so, I compare it to drafting pass rushers in the first round of the NFL. Even though the bust rate is high for them, it is a premium position and like power in MLB, high risk but HIGH reward. And considering the Brewers have shown the ability to draft other types and pitching later in the draft, I think it is a good idea to keep hunting for power early in the draft. And you also get the boon of the international signings, which lessens the impact if you miss on these guys so you might as well as swing for the fences (sorry).

Interesting comparison and I definitely understand the logic. I feel like it's not as simple of a comparison though because I don't think NFL draft picks especially the early round ones need as much development as an MLB draft pick needs. If you draft a pass rusher in the first round of the NFL draft the expectation is they should be day 1 ready to make an impact. MLB draft picks have a much lower rate of success than the NFL with a lot more development needed. 

That's what makes me wonder if it would be better to invest the money into profiles the Brewers have shown to be really good at maximizing then targeting power through trades where you can either trade for prospects that are closer to MLB or trade for current MLB players. 

I don't think there's a right or wrong answer. I just think it's an interesting thought experiment. I think we all agree that some power influx is much needed. We just have different ideas of what is the best way to get said power.

[nate82]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

I'm asking if we have seen enough development from those four to continue to heavily invest bonus pool into these type of prospects. These four guys have combined to account for about 28% of the Brewers bonus pool the last three drafts especially when the Brewers have shown to excel in developing more contact oriented profiles and pitchers.

Wilken hasn’t shown any progress and it is TBD for Fischer.  Burke I think we have seen enough and he looks to be a good prospect.  Not elite but a good prospect but he is only entering his second full season in the minors.  His nearly .600 slugging in the southern league is very impressive but it’s still early.  
 

Bitonti is still young yet and doesn’t turn 21 until November.  Still with his first time playing 100 games last year he put in a good year.  The strikeouts look to be an issue and seems to be an issue this year also.

Overall I would put Fischer and Bitonti in the TBD category with Wilken in the in danger of losing a roster spot and Burke in a solid bench bat or fringe starting 1B.  Burke kind of reminds me of Bauers.

I think the Brewers should continue drafting how they have been drafting.  

[harrydalton]

My read on big power prospects is Fischer and Burke look to be at least good mlb players. Wilken looks shaky and might have to fight for at AAA bats in the near future. Luke Adams is injured, on hold and tba. Bitonti is also tba.

 

[jay87shot]

I like investing in the big bats because it is so hard to find 30+ HR guys in the big leagues especially since we can't afford those guys in free agency. We can find contact, speed, and defense guys like Lockridge and Hamilton for cheap but our attempt to sign a guy like Rhys didn't work well. Vaughn might be the exception to the rule in finding cheap power. Even getting guys like Jett and Joey in deals for expiring guys is usually doable but no body usually gives up a 30 HR guy for a year of a pitcher or maybe Contreras or Megill in the offseason. I really think we should try and add more power bats and get a few more college power bats in the 4-10 rounds range (probably cheaper senior signs).