Elite Defense Makes Chicago Cubs Daunting NLDS Opponent for Brewers' Pressure-Based Offense

[Jack Stern]

The 2025 Milwaukee Brewers have built their offensive identity around applying pressure. Ask any hitter or coach about their success, and it’s one of the first phrases you’ll hear in response.

At their best, Brewers hitters put up a stubborn battle against each pitch, combining for the lowest chase rate among 30 teams and striving to put those in the strike zone in play. When they do, they sprint full-throttle down the line. Once they’re on first base, they try to advance an extra 90 feet at any opportunity. The Brewers force opponents to pitch quickly and to make plays quickly. When they don’t, this offense has made them pay.

It’s hard to argue with the regular-season results. Despite ranking 25th in isolated power (.145), Milwaukee’s offense scored the third-most runs in baseball. It placed second in on-base percentage (.332) and ninth in wRC+ (107). Opposing defenses were less efficient against the Brewers than any other team, slumping to a -28 Fielding Run Value (last) and letting them reach on an error 43 times (third-most).

Applying pressure, an approach that had Pat Murphy likening his hitters to woodpeckers, worked over the course of a regular season. The Brewers will soon find out whether it’s a viable strategy in the postseason, where they will immediately square off against arguably the greatest potential foil to their brand of offense: the division-rival Chicago Cubs.

Milwaukee went 6-7 against Chicago this year, a reflection of how well both clubs counter the other’s strengths. The Cubs do that best in the field, where they make the plays that the Brewers challenge their opponents to execute.

Chicago’s defense has arguably been the best in the National League this year. In the regular season, it led the NL in FRV (41), Defensive Runs Saved (83), and Deserved Runs Prevented (20.9). The Cubs roll out excellent defenders at five of the seven non-battery positions.

Player	Position	DRS	FRV	DRP
Michael Busch	1B	2	-1	1.2
Nico Hoerner	2B	17	12	5.5
Dansby Swanson	SS	7	3	-1.2
Matt Shaw	3B	12	-1	2.7
Ian Happ	LF	9	0	13.5
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	15	21	9.6
Kyle Tucker	RF	-1	0	-5.2

That defense responding well to pressure helped the Cubs punch their ticket to the NLDS. The San Diego Padres threatened a ninth-inning comeback in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series. After Jackson Merrill led off the inning with a solo home run to make it a 3-1 game, two hit-by-pitches brought the go-ahead run to the plate with one out. Jake Cronenworth chopped a shallow 72-mph grounder toward shortstop for a potential infield single, but Shaw charged left and got a handle on the ball in time to retire him by just less than half a stride.

It’s precisely the kind of sequence the Brewers have pulled off successfully all season long: creating traffic on the bases, then daring a defender to make a challenging play on a well-placed grounder. For lesser teams, this kind of play often ended in disaster. The third baseman didn’t get there, hung onto the ball for an infield single, or rushed the throw before getting his grip and footwork in order and fired it up the line. Shaw completed the play, even showing the wherewithal to take an extra beat before throwing when the ball nearly slipped out of his hand.

Such plays could go against the Brewers throughout the NLDS, rather than in their favor. They already experienced it in some of their regular-season showdowns. Milwaukee hitters actually made better contact against the Cubs than they did overall on the season, yet saw fewer balls in play fall for hits, because that elite defense snatched them up.

Opponent	R/G	BA	OBP	SLG	xBA	xOBP	xSLG	HardHit%	Barrel%	Whiff%	BABIP
MLB	4.98	.256	.329	.402	.255	.330	.401	40.1%	6.8%	22.6%	.302
CHC	4.30	.239	.314	.393	.256	.331	.417	44.3%	8.0%	20.1%	.276

October would already be a new test of how far the Brewers could succeed with middling in-game power. Their run-prevention and baserunning excellence mean they need not slug with the most potent lineups to win games, but they need enough big swings to cut through playoff randomness and make a deep run—and they may need more against the Cubs than anyone else.

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[rafa]

The point of this article is spot on, the Cubs defense is excellent.  They actually have more players in the running for Gold Gloves than the Brewers do.  And, Jack makes the great point of teams making mistakes, and the Cubs didn't in the last 5 games series at Wrigley, specifically after the first game that the Brewers won. 

[Frisbee Slider]

Were there moments in the regular season when the Cubs defense thwarted the Brewers offense? I recognize the value of PCA. Dansby can be good but is aging. Nico is solid. I don’t buy Happ, Tucker or Suzuki as valuable defenders. Shaw has made good plays. I don’t much worry about first base defense.

[Team Canada]

I'm sure PCA made a play or two, and I think Tucker had a nice catch at some point that took a hit away.

[Brian]

Hey Tony, what do you think of the Brewers? 

[Team Canada]

On topic, lots of great content in here: https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/how-brewers-offense-makes-its-own-luck

[eddiemathews]

All of the remaining teams are daunting in one way or another. Hit 'em where they ain't. And hit 'em hard.