Brewers-Cubs NLDS Game Four Thread - 10/9/2025 @ 8:08PM

[torts]

I can't be upset with the series so far, we somehow managed to avoid the cubs bats being hot until a game with the wind blowing out.  Someone said earlier Freddy doesn't pitch well in cold, it is what it is, it was cold last night. First inning bad luck is what it is and now we get to see shota at home, or, tailon on short rest.  I'm okay with both of those. Bring it on cubs

[adambr2]

7 hours ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

The reason is: statistical variance. 

It’s not just statistical variance. These are human beings, not AI robots. You don’t think that the events of the last two games aren’t in their heads a little bit?  You don’t think that their confidence, their mental state, their psyche is in a completely different place right now than if they had dropped the first two games and then come back to win these last two? And the same in reverse for the Cubs.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

41 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

It’s not just statistical variance. These are human beings, not AI robots. You don’t think that the events of the last two games aren’t in their heads a little bit?  You don’t think that their confidence, their mental state, their psyche is in a completely different place right now than if they had dropped the first two games and then come back to win these last two? And the same in reverse for the Cubs.

It's worse for the Brewers as many have been involved in these prior choke jobs. They can say all the right things, everybody knows they're all thinking "not this again, really?" You could probably insert a Sunday lineup for every playoff game and just by chance, you'd win one of these last six series. It's incredible what they're on the verge of pulling off.

Getting punked in a decisive Game 5 at home, against your biggest rival, led by the hometown kid manager who bailed for a few extra dollars, in a series you led 2-0 after setting a franchise record for wins and beating said team for the division title, is about the most Milwaukee sports outcome I can possibly imagine. I don't know what's left to hope for after that. I genuinely think this will drive me to just become a box score checker the day after. I can't keep investing in this.

[gypcasino]

I already can't stomach the thought of seeing another road team clinch here. The fresh hell that it's the Cubs this time may just cause me to take a step back in my fandom. 

[adambr2]

8 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

It's worse for the Brewers as many have been involved in these prior choke jobs. They can say all the right things, everybody knows they're all thinking "not this again, really?" You could probably insert a Sunday lineup for every playoff game and just by chance, you'd win one of these last six series. It's incredible what they're on the verge of pulling off.

Getting punked in a decisive Game 5 at home, against your biggest rival, led by the hometown kid manager who bailed for a few extra dollars, in a series you led 2-0 after setting a franchise record for wins and beating said team for the division title, is about the most Milwaukee sports outcome I can possibly imagine. I don't know what's left to hope for after that. I genuinely think this will drive me to just become a box score checker the day after. I can't keep investing in this.

I don’t need them to get to the World Series to get a little faith back, but I do at least need a series win. 

It is really hard to imagine continuing to be overly invested in the regular season if  this ends the way I think it will on Saturday. You have to figure out a way to emotionally detach yourself a little, like I have with the Badgers. I’m not going to get there by this weekend with the Brewers though, so this one is going to sting.

Today and last night had that feel of finalization and sadness that I normally get at the end of Packer and Brewer season where it almost didn’t feel like they have one more game.

[BarremlensTSSC]

10 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Such a lame excuse. They've made the playoffs every year but one since 2018 and haven't won a single series since then. 

I've watched Atlanta, Tampa, Kansas City and Arizona play in recent World Series games. Seattle and Toronto are in the running right now. 

You're certainly entitled to your perspective, but imo this is a lame response.  The comment you quoted and replied to was in response to a comparison of the Brewers to the Bucks and Packers.  Their situations aren't comparable.  I'd go into why but if you don't see that there's no point in explaining.   You then shifted that to a comparison between the Brewers and other MLB teams, which is fine, except that the Brewers play in the smallest market in either the NL or AL and have the lowest local media revenue as a result.  Most of the teams you've listed (Atlanta, Arizona) aren't remotely comparable markets or revenue sources, and yes, revenue matters.  Kansas City is certainly closer and as you pointed out they appeared in two WS and won one of them.  They also did that in an era where the majority of the larger market teams were poorly run, cutting payroll or both and weren't competitive either by design or happenstance.  They certainly weren't dealing with a well run, resource rich behemoth like the Dodgers as they Brewers have been competing with since 2018.  Tampa runs its organization a lot like the Brewers, but even after the Bally debacle their local tv revenue alone is 20 million more per year than Milwaukee's because their market is larger.  And before Bally collapsed it was 30+ million per more.  That matters.

You can call that a lame excuse if you want.  I think that's a naive, foolish opinion, but you're welcome to have it.  I also don't think you're likely to be satisfied by a WS appearance.  If they make the WS this year and lose to Toronto (whose metro population is literally 4 times more than Milwaukee's), for example, you'd be saying the same thing in that series you were last night.  And that's fine.  Being a Brewers fan is monumentally frustrating.  I've experienced since 1978 and was so frustrated I spent close to 10 years trying not to watch or care before I gave up and admitted (again) that I was a Brewers addict in about 2004 or so.

Is it possible for the Brewers to win a playoff series in the current competitive and economic structure in baseball?  Of course.  Is it possible for them to win a world series in that structure?  Yes.  But it's a hell of a lot harder for them to win a title than it is for the Packers or even the Bucks, which was the original point of the "lame excuse" as you described it.  I don't think that's even an opinion.  I think it's a statement of fact which is pretty obvious, but I suppose your mileage may vary.

Have a great day.

Go Brewers.

[yourout]

22 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

It's worse for the Brewers as many have been involved in these prior choke jobs. They can say all the right things, everybody knows they're all thinking "not this again, really?" You could probably insert a Sunday lineup for every playoff game and just by chance, you'd win one of these last six series. It's incredible what they're on the verge of pulling off.

Getting punked in a decisive Game 5 at home, against your biggest rival, led by the hometown kid manager who bailed for a few extra dollars, in a series you led 2-0 after setting a franchise record for wins and beating said team for the division title, is about the most Milwaukee sports outcome I can possibly imagine. I don't know what's left to hope for after that. I genuinely think this will drive me to just become a box score checker the day after. I can't keep investing in this.

Just need to add a late blown lead in game 5 to maximize the hurt.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

2 minutes ago, BarremlensTSSC said:

You're certainly entitled to your perspective, but imo this is a lame response.  The comment you quoted and replied to was in response to a comparison of the Brewers to the Bucks and Packers.  Their situations aren't comparable.  I'd go into why but if you don't see that there's no point in explaining.   You then shifted that to a comparison between the Brewers and other MLB teams, which is fine, except that the Brewers play in the smallest market in either the NL or AL and have the lowest local media revenue as a result.  Most of the teams you've listed (Atlanta, Arizona) aren't remotely comparable markets or revenue sources, and yes, revenue matters.  Kansas City is certainly closer and as you pointed out they appeared in two WS and won one of them.  They also did that in an era where the majority of the larger market teams were poorly run, cutting payroll or both and weren't competitive either by design or happenstance.  They certainly weren't dealing with a well run, resource rich behemoth like the Dodgers as they Brewers have been competing with since 2018.  Tampa runs its organization a lot like the Brewers, but even after the Bally debacle their local tv revenue alone is 20 million more per year than Milwaukee's because their market is larger.  And before Bally collapsed it was 30+ million per more.  That matters.

You can call that a lame excuse if you want.  I think that's a naive, foolish opinion, but you're welcome to have it.  I also don't think you're likely to be satisfied by a WS appearance.  If they make the WS this year and lose to Toronto (whose metro population is literally 4 times more than Milwaukee's), for example, you'd be saying the same thing in that series you were last night.  And that's fine.  Being a Brewers fan is monumentally frustrating.  I've experienced since 1978 and was so frustrated I spent close to 10 years trying not to watch or care before I gave up and admitted (again) that I was a Brewers addict in about 2004 or so.

Is it possible for the Brewers to win a playoff series in the current competitive and economic structure in baseball?  Of course.  Is it possible for them to win a world series in that structure?  Yes.  But it's a hell of a lot harder for them to win a title than it is for the Packers or even the Bucks, which was the original point of the "lame excuse" as you described it.  I don't think that's even an opinion.  I think it's a statement of fact which is pretty obvious, but I suppose your mileage may vary.

Have a great day.

Go Brewers.

Lots of blah blah. Win a series. That's what I'm asking. Win a single series. This is just a big strawman. "If they did this, you'd say this." Yeah, no. 

Win a series against your biggest rival that you beat for the division title, got to play at home, and led 2-0.

They've made the playoffs 6 of the last 7 years and have not advanced once. Stop acting like that's acceptable, or the result of being a small market. It's just failure.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

49 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

It’s not just statistical variance. These are human beings, not AI robots. You don’t think that the events of the last two games aren’t in their heads a little bit?  You don’t think that their confidence, their mental state, their psyche is in a completely different place right now than if they had dropped the first two games and then come back to win these last two? And the same in reverse for the Cubs.

Of course they are humans. Of course their mental and emotional states matter. It just doesn't follow that their emotional state is "uh-oh, we're toast." Not does it follow that the Cubs players all have an unshakeable mental confidence. EVERYONE is going to be a little tight for Game 5. That's the nature of this. Think of all the times in baseball history teams with momentum have lost. It happened to us last year!

I totally get the need to think we're massive underdogs because of self-protection. Baseball playoffs are a stress machine unrivaled in American pro sports (possible exception of NHL OT). But to insist that we're headed for inevitable collapse as objective reality? It's either venting or punditry. And people can vent! But that usually doesn't involve firmly holding the idea that their vented emotion represents Absolute Truth.

10-7 is...59 % in a very small sample, uncontrolled for other variables. Flip 17 coins with your left hand, you might get 10 heads and 7 tails. Doesn't mean anything about it will hold moving forward. And the people who have lots of money and technological sophistication invested in setting correct odds don't seem to agree that the Cubs are now favorites at all. In fact, they're (slightly) plus money, even factoring in the pro-Cubs public.

But, look, I can be wrong. So can the sportsbooks. If you really believe your sense of momentum represents an objective reality that people like me don't get, you should bet on it! If you lose, hey, you'll be happy because the Brewers won! If you win, well, maybe that takes some sting out of the loss and vindicates your sense of resignation.

I am not trying to be a jerk here. But I think wagering into your sense of resignation is way more productive than doom casting. I have done this myself. I do not appreciate the gambling takeover of sport, but it is useful as a form of emotional insurance. We went up 2-0, I placed a small wager on the Cubs at longish odds. We win, totally worth it. We lose, it's enough to buy pizza and make a charitable donation. At least that way, some good comes from the arbitrary pain we choose to inflict on ourselves by emotionally investing in a sport whose outcome we can't control.

 

 

[adambr2]

Murphy was asked about Yelich leading off to which he said to try to get him as many ABs as possible.

What about trying to get Chourio, who led off in Games 1 and 2 and has had a far better playoff series, more ABs?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

8 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Murphy was asked about Yelich leading off to which he said to try to get him as many ABs as possible.

What about trying to get Chourio, who led off in Games 1 and 2 and has had a far better playoff series, more ABs?

I'm kinda OK with that especially if Chourio can't run as well as you'd like. I want Jackson in more of an RBI spot especially when you have Joey Ortiz preceding him in the order. I don't have huge issues with the order. It's the insistence on Perkins and Ortiz driving me nuts, but most of all Turang just completely sucking. 

Enough with Ortiz. Put Mona in the lineup.

[adambr2]

12 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I'm kinda OK with that especially if Chourio can't run as well as you'd like. I want Jackson in more of an RBI spot especially when you have Joey Ortiz preceding him in the order. I don't have huge issues with the order. It's the insistence on Perkins and Ortiz driving me nuts, but most of all Turang just completely sucking. 

Enough with Ortiz. Put Mona in the lineup.

My biggest issue is that you had a combination, a formula, a routine from Games 1 and 2 that worked really well and you just went away from it. 

I don’t know why the Brewer offense doesn’t click with Yelich at the top of the order. What I do know is that they’ve tried that repeatedly since the beginning of September and it repeatedly has not worked worth a damn. 

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

13 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

My biggest issue is that you had a combination, a formula, a routine from Games 1 and 2 that worked really well and you just went away from it. 

I don’t know why the Brewer offense doesn’t click with Yelich at the top of the order. What I do know is that they’ve tried that repeatedly since the beginning of September and it repeatedly has not worked worth a damn. 

That's the biggest misstep among several from Murphy since game 1 ended.

I thought he got over his tendency to overmanage. But even though they won I didn't like the pen game in Game 2. You have the advantage. Line up your starters, pivot to the pen if it goes badly.

Tinkering too much, unnecessarily using guys outside of the roles they've succeeded in, that's how you lose momentum. And probably get reverse swept. 

 

[adambr2]

5 minutes ago, Marc Newfield of Dreams said:

That's the biggest misstep among several from Murphy since game 1 ended.

I thought he got over his tendency to overmanage. But even though they won I didn't like the pen game in Game 2. You have the advantage. Line up your starters, pivot to the pen if it goes badly.

Tinkering too much, unnecessarily using guys outside of the roles they've succeeded in, that's how you lose momentum. And probably get reverse swept. 

 

It felt to me like Murphy felt like he could “afford” to drop Game 3. Lockridge starting, not going to Vaughn in the 8th with multiple runners on. There just didn’t feel like a lot of urgency to win that game. It seemed to be there for Game 4, but by then it’s too late — the momentum has shifted, and worse you’ve got a panicked clubhouse now, regardless of what they’ll say publicly.

 

[TURBO]

5 hours ago, adambr2 said:

I believe Murphy thought he had the series won after two games. And got cute with his Game 3 lineup, rather than trying to finish the series off there.

He had numerous opportunities in Game 3 to go for the offensive kill punch and didn’t do it.

THIS.

Why on earth anyone involved in any sport wouldn't go for the jugular in game 3 is completely and totally beyond me.

Was he trying to be cute, have it work out, so the media could praise him and he could get some more fun screen time.

It's just a gross look, and frustrates me to no end.

Does Weeks have any input at all?  If he was on board with the line-up changes in game 3 and 4, what does that tell you about his management skills?  Or does he just nod his head and be a good little yes man?

I think we can win Saturday, I'm not going to fall into the cesspool of negativity and hate that a lot of us are, but I am not confident, and pretty much expect to lose.

If Murphy does not go back to the game 1 and 2 lineup, then he has no business calling the shots. It's time to put the experiments on hold and do what got us the win in the first two games.

End of story.

[Brian]

3 minutes ago, TURBO said:

If Murphy does not go back to the game 1 and 2 lineup, then he has no business calling the shots. It's time to put the experiments on hold and do what got us the win in the first two games.

He does seem to over think things at times to the point of actually being a negative for the team. 

[yourout]

I guess book ending the season with ugly losing streaks seems appropriate.

[RobertCrawley]

9 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Yeah...no. 

It's the realistic fan. It's the fan that's expecting history to repeat itself. Because it's all that has happened to this franchise since the dawn of time. 

I've accepted that destiny is for 30k depressed Brewers fans to silently file out of AmFam while Craig Counsel is doused in Gatorade and chants of Let's Go Cubbies echo off the roof. 

 

 

 

 

Textbook

[OldSchoolSnapper]

1 minute ago, RobertCrawley said:

Textbook

It is indeed textbook that the Brewers fail in the playoffs. I don't know why you're pretending that everybody expecting the Brewers to lose is dooming. It's very much the thing that has happened over and over again. It requires a much bigger leap of faith to think the Brewers are going to win this game.

It's comical to me to see the spin some are trying to put on this. It's far more delusional to think the Brewers are going to come through in a big moment than it is to assume we're blowing this series - again.

[Jim French Stepstool]

8 hours ago, adambr2 said:

It “feels” better than a first pitch pop up to 2nd. It’s not really any more consequential in a playoff series with days off after almost each game and short starter leashes. 

My summary of it would be that carrying Brandon Lockridge on the playoff roster hasn’t in any way contributed to winning the series.

I believe Murphy thought he had the series won after two games. And got cute with his Game 3 lineup, rather than trying to finish the series off there.

He had numerous opportunities in Game 3 to go for the offensive kill punch and didn’t do it.

It looked obvious from late in the season that Lockridge would be added, due in large part to the ? regarding Chourio & the hammy and probably fueled by Collins turning in some downright horrible defensive play late in the season, along with the ability to PR. Definitely, he hasn't contributed. But there weren't many other options. They didn't put much effort into getting Hoskins more ABs late in the year, so I don't think they ever considered him much of an option. His #s were OK in Nashville. That might prove to be a mistake. After that, they took a look at Urias in AAA, and Tyler Black was probably considered. Siegler would've been an INF version of Lockridge. Slim pickings.

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, Brian said:

He does seem to over think things at times to the point of actually being a negative for the team. 

He adjusted the batting order in game three vs a RHP after facing lefties in the first two. He's done that numerous times during a season in which they won 97 games, and it was often successful. The red lights were including Lockridge in that game, and not reverting to the games 1 & 2 BO in game four. He spread out the LHH. I understand the idea behind that, but it didn't work. So that can certainly be criticized.

[Jim French Stepstool]

49 minutes ago, RobertCrawley said:

Textbook

I'm not in the medical profession. But a longtime friend who now is a Red Cross director did one of his clinicals years ago relating to afflictions of the mind. I get the despondency, but sports fans can be interesting test cases, to say the least. Many take the leap of actually believing that they 'knew' something bad was going to happen beforehand, which is obviously nonsense. I'd say it's a defense mechanism. Maybe not textbook, but........

But back to baseball. Like in 2011, they're returning home tied after going up 2-0 & need to play better than they played in Chicago. No momentum. Chicago also had none, but found a way to turn things around at home. We need to do the same. 

[RobertCrawley]

45 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I'm not in the medical profession. But a longtime friend who now is a Red Cross director did one of his clinicals years ago relating to afflictions of the mind. I get the despondency, but sports fans can be interesting test cases, to say the least. Many take the leap of actually believing that they 'knew' something bad was going to happen beforehand, which is obviously nonsense. I'd say it's a defense mechanism. Maybe not textbook, but........

But back to baseball. Like in 2011, they're returning home tied after going up 2-0 & need to play better than they played in Chicago. No momentum. Chicago also had none, but found a way to turn things around at home. We need to do the same. 

This is sport. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. I like Yeli's attitude:

“It’s part of the story, man. Sometimes you’re going to have to win some big games,” Yelich said, via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. “You face some adversity in the postseason… You gotta keep going. We played well at our home field, they took care of business here. Go back, get ready for Saturday and make sure we play well.”

[Jim French Stepstool]

7 minutes ago, RobertCrawley said:

This is sport. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. I like Yeli's attitude:

“It’s part of the story, man. Sometimes you’re going to have to win some big games,” Yelich said, via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. “You face some adversity in the postseason… You gotta keep going. We played well at our home field, they took care of business here. Go back, get ready for Saturday and make sure we play well.”

That's pretty good. It would be even better if he included "And find a way to get our DH to stop chasing breaking balls out of the zone".

[adambr2]

2 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I'm not in the medical profession. But a longtime friend who now is a Red Cross director did one of his clinicals years ago relating to afflictions of the mind. I get the despondency, but sports fans can be interesting test cases, to say the least. Many take the leap of actually believing that they 'knew' something bad was going to happen beforehand, which is obviously nonsense. I'd say it's a defense mechanism. Maybe not textbook, but........

But back to baseball. Like in 2011, they're returning home tied after going up 2-0 & need to play better than they played in Chicago. No momentum. Chicago also had none, but found a way to turn things around at home. We need to do the same. 

Someone pointed this out earlier, but the franchise is not in the same place as it was in 2011. 

2011 was kind of a reawakening for the franchise, it was their first division title in decades. They had the one lone playoff appearance in 2008 then kind of took a step back in 2009 and 2010 before making some big moves and getting back in 2011.

There wasn’t this deep rooted recent history of expectations, pain and repeated choke jobs that they have now. So while I don’t remember and can’t be sure, I don’t think there was the same sense of impending doom after games 3 and 4 in 2011. Disappointment to be sure, but it wasn’t like this where you almost become conditioned to expect failure.