After Yankees Trade for Marlins Starter Ryan Weathers, What Suitors Remain for Freddy Peralta?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The New York Yankees wanted to use outfield prospect Dillon Lewis as the centerpiece of a trade to bolster their starting rotation, but the Brewers were never going to accede to a deal focused on Lewis in exchange for Freddy Peralta. Thus, New York circled back to the Miami Marlins Tuesday, after missing out on Edward Cabrera with a bid that had also included Lewis. This time, they got a deal done, packaging Lewis and three other prospects to acquire left-handed hurler Ryan Weathers from the Fish.

Lewis held some appeal for the Brewers, but the Yankees' efforts to pump his value this winter worked better on some other teams than they did on the Milwaukee front office. The Crew also liked Brendan Jones, a speedy outfielder who served as a secondary piece in the deal and will join Miami's farm system, instead. Thus, for the Yankees to land Peralta now, the two sides would have to start almost from scratch.

We can't dismiss the possibility that the Yankees will still make a play for Peralta, but it's now more remote. In theory, New York has more depth in their rotation now, but most of their penciled-in starters either will begin the season on the injured list or seem like safe bets to land there eventually. Weathers is under team control for three more seasons, which matches the term for which they control Luis Gil—the hurler the Brewers wanted as the big-league anchor in a deal for Peralta. Brian Cashman could try to build a new, higher-echelon prospect package to entice the Brewers, swapping Gil for Peralta at the cost of more farm system punch but backfilling Gil's spot with the equally talented and equally fragile Weathers. On balance, though, that's unlikely.

The Yankees are at least the third team to take an active interest in Peralta this winter, only to end up solving their rotation problems with different deals. The Orioles could still be in the market for a free-agent starter, but they spent the capital they might have included in a Peralta deal in acquiring Shane Baz from the Rays, instead. The Astros not only signed Tatsuya Imai to replace the departing Framber Valdez, but traded for Mike Burrows of the Pirates. 

Weathers, Baz and Burrows all have multiple years of club control remaining, which made the teams acquiring them more comfortable sending significant prospect capital the other way in trades. The Cubs were certainly never going to trade for Peralta, given the competitive tension between those two teams right now, but they, too, demonstrated their preference for a longer-term solution by trading for Cabrera. Even the Red Sox, who surrendered a modest return for Sonny Gray from the Cardinals, also traded the tantalizing Jhostynxon García to the Pirates for more team control over Johan Oviedo.

Suitors remain. The Diamondbacks, Giants and Padres all need rotation help if they want to contend for playoff berths in the increasingly competitive National League, and each has at least checked in with Milwaukee this offseason about Peralta. It's not clear what the team from the northwest suburbs of Atlanta could offer for Peralta—their farm system is weak—but they have some measure of interest. The Mets and Dodgers boast two of the game's deepest farm systems. The Queensmen desperately need a starter to anchor a shaky rotation, while Los Angeles is shopping for capstones for a roster hunting a threepeat.

None of those six teams make as neat a fit for Peralta as others have seemed to, at various points this offseason. As has been true all along, the Brewers themselves feel little pressure to move him. The pending disruption of their local broadcast distribution (and, thus, revenue therefrom) could ratchet that pressure up slightly, but it's more likely the Brewers will simply eschew hoped-for secondary spending, if needed, than that they'll take a reduced return just to shed an $8-million obligation for 2026. With each of the trades mentioned above, the chances that the team gets the kind of offer they'll demand have dwindled. Eventually, a team will have to increase its bid, or the team will hold onto its All-Star righty.

Perhaps the more intriguing notion is of the Brewers themselves putting a controllable starter in play. If the robust offers that might inspire them to trade Peralta are being reserved for pitchers who will be around through at least 2028, could Milwaukee get the juicy prospect recharge they're looking for by trading Aaron Ashby or Robert Gasser?

The markets for those pitchers might not be as fevered, but they would include more teams. Every club tries to accumulate both talent and club control. Peralta only offers one of those two things. While he's more talented and more accomplished than Baz, Burrows, Cabrera, Oviedo and Weathers, he's also a rental. So far, the Brewers have insisted that if a team is to nab him, they need to pay controllable pitcher prices, to reflect both Peralta's raw on-field value and the utility of his below-market $8-million salary.

Late in the winter, small-market teams get their chance to shine. The Brewers won't tiptoe silently all the way to spring training. They're unlikely to make a major financial outlay, but they will continue refining the roster. Trading Peralta could still be part of that, but the lineup of likely partners in a trade has changed as the offseason has unfolded. Each team (effectively) eliminated from consideration clarifies the market, but the Brewers hold the trump card: They can choose whether or not to transact even on the highest offer they get, so they control the market, even with fewer teams whom they can use to apply leverage to the others.

View full article

[rafa79]

To be clear, I do NOT want the Brewers to trade Peralta.  This team is very capable and perhaps with a couple minor acquisitions, I'm ready to roll and see what plays out.  

However, I disagree with two things in this article.  I do not think the Yankees are out of the running for Perlata, the Weathers acquisition might actually spur them to try harder.  That is, they have some young pitchers who the Brewers may be interested in.  Numerous reports have the Brewers specifying that a trade for Peralta would require a MLB ready pitcher.  With Weathers, the Yankees could potentially be more motivated to trade one of their young pitchers for Peralta.  I'll still pass, unless it's Cam Schlittler which would never happen.

Also, the Mets are still very much in the running.  Stearns obviously knows Freddy and they have Jonah Tong who could come back.  If the Mets think that's too much (he's currently 46 on the MLB Top 100) fine, keep him and no deal.

I've mentioned pitching because ALL the confirmed reports mention that as the sticking point.  I'd prefer a bat in the outfield or simply keeping Freddy as I mentioned before.  We can use a little of our Minor league system for a tweak and go from there if a trade benefits the team this year.

[Turning2]

If they are privately set on trading Peralta, I hope they haven't overplayed their hand. The leverage might be dwindling. I still say, keep him and trade some prospects and roster bubble guys as possible for a meaningful OF bat. 

[gregmag]

This is a great analysis, but I too think the Yankees’ acquisition of Weathers does not significantly diminish the chances that they’ll trade for Peralta. Reading some Yankees fan boards, a lot of people seem to think Weathers is an injury risk, a potential bullpen piece, and/or just not reliable. He has the look of back-of-the-rotation depth rather than a frontline piece on the order of Peralta. I understand the basis for Jack’s view that the Brewers might have liked a couple of the prospects in the Weathers trade, but neither of those guys seems like a piece whose absence becomes a dealbreaker, or even much of a deal complicator, for a Peralta trade with Milwaukee.

FWIW, I’m strongly in favor of trading Freddy, and I agree with the people who would rather focus the trade on a young outfielder with power, or maybe an infielder who can complement the guys we have, rather than another starting pitcher. A big part of my comfort with trading Freddy is that I think the young starters we already have can, given the way the Brewers mix and match players, substantially or even fully replace Freddy‘s on field value this season.

[Matthew Trueblood]

16 minutes ago, Turning2 said:

If they are privately set on trading Peralta, I hope they haven't overplayed their hand. The leverage might be dwindling. I still say, keep him and trade some prospects and roster bubble guys as possible for a meaningful OF bat. 

I don't think they're set on trading him, at all. They'll only deal him if someone meets their asking price. They're comfortable keeping him, more so than they were with Corbin Burnes or Devin Williams.

[Turning2]

8 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I don't think they're set on trading him, at all. They'll only deal him if someone meets their asking price. They're comfortable keeping him, more so than they were with Corbin Burnes or Devin Williams.

That's what they are selling publicly. Doesn't mean it's true. It's all gamesmanship and posturing. But I agree, they are much more likely to hold him than they were with the other two due to the bargain price and productivity. 

[nathanj42]

From their recent trading history, seems like Peralta is available at a certain price. With the Burnes deal as a template (top 50 prospect, former top 100 prospect, and the 34th pick), a Yankee Gil anchored deal is far from that price. Not sure if any of those teams (DBacks, Giants, Padres) have willingness to move the prospect capital to make this type trade in the way that the Orioles did (Ortiz was behind Henderson & Holliday in the org depth chart, while still a top 50 prospect).

I see the Brewers moving Ashby next offseason. Next offseason, his deal is effectively a 2 year $17mm contract with a $13mm option. If he performs similarly to the last 2 seasons, that's likely going to have significant value given the RP free agent market. The Iglesias, Jansen, Hensley all got higher AAV. The Brewers aren't really wanting to pay that for relief pitching given how they're able to produce/find so many arms.  

[Austin Tatious]

1. Brewers are competing and he’s a high end starter.  
2. His salary is do-able and he’s reliable so it’s a great value.  
3. They are happy to keep him and take the comp pick for him as they compete.  

4.  The Brewers have very advanced math and analytics where they look at a lot of metrics on skill sets that they want.  They’ve studied what succeeds and what they can develop.  It’s possible they’ve gotten offers that look good on paper but just isn’t the right fit for what the Brewers want.  

5.  There have been guys in recent years like Brett Baty or Cody Mayo where message boards put psychotic values on them and then it’s they frankly don’t prove it.  Our own Tyler Black fits that.  Meanwhile 5’7 second baseman Caleb Durbin from Div 3 Wash U as the 16th rated Yankees prospect ends up at third base for the Brewers and gets ROY consideration. Brewers aren’t worried about brand name.  It’s the insights they see.  It’s like Fernando Mendoza being a lightly recruited guy getting the Heisman. The Brewers won’t be right every time but they have a process.  
6. If I’m another team and I see the Brewers are asking about somebody, it would give me pause with how smart the Brewers have been.  Brewers have to go next level and not tip their hand.  I have done this before: you pretend to be focused on shiny object A, when you really want B.  Then when someone balks at A you act like you’re settling for B.  
7. Brewers have quite obviously said make it worth our while or you don’t get him. This means standard measures aren’t going to fly because nothing stops the Brewers from rolling with him.   If you’re getting a high comp pick for him anyway, you’d have to way overshoot that value for the Brewers to just not use him.   
8. Ultimately, I’m not worried about leverage.  Make Arnold happy or the Brewers will keep him and take a high draft pick.  The Brewers already have a good farm system and they can afford Peralta and they are competing.  If this were the other way around, I could see the Brewers literally trading FOR Peralta in a year with competitive ambitions at that salary.  

[WiscoSportsHub]

I'll take the opposite road here and say the Yankees are now MORE likely to trade for Freddy Peralta than before, it was clear they didn't want to have to rely on Paul Blackburn or Ryan Yarborough being a part of their initial rotation. The Brewers asking price for Peralta has to involve at least 1 young, major league ready starting pitcher, of which the Yankees needed surplus; most teams need at least 2 extra rotation level players for Spring Training with the frequency of pitching injuries, the Brewers got more than bailed out of their injuries last season by trading for Quinn Priester when Boston's rotation had stabilized.

I say this but a lot of teams are in the mix, depending on the strength of his market I believe the Padres can trade 3 solid pitchers (Randy Vasquez, Miguel Mendez and one of their A level prospects) to land Peralta if they're not priced out.

[Trax]

Said from the beginning I'd trade Peralta but not for a fair value deal.  I'd want more.

Could be the case and I'm great with it.