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Posted
11 minutes ago, cragi said:

im not asking for more stats. as a stat head in the real world, i understand well how to use stats to justify a position, whether or not they tell the real story. 

The real story is that a lot of arms are down from the initial roster, torching the depth: Woodruff, Priester, Henderson, Crow, Zerpa, Koenig, etc. And we have a lot of youth on the staff, both of which are a significant concern for a playoff run.  The stats say they are doing a good job of managing the "now", but not necessarily for the posteason, where innings pitched, experience and TOR matters more.

We saw last year, and many analysts predicted, how the team wasnt built for the postseason. That has improved this year, but not necessarily enough to surpass the Dodgers.

Woodruff, Henderson, Koenig, and possibly Crow should all be returning at some point.

Yoho has been one of the most dominant relief arms in the minors the last few years, he could develop into a leverage arm yet as he gets acclimated to MLB.

Rom saw a huge uptick in results this year at AAA with a 65 ERA- | 50 FIP- over his 26 IP. Probably just another up down reliever, but who knows maybe he's another out of nowhere success story for the dev team. Only way to find out is to face MLB hitters and see what happens.

We've already seen the uptick in Kuhnel's stuff since arriving. Again, probably just another innings eating reliever to bide time until other guys get healthy, but he was already getting save chances earlier in the year so who knows.

Not on the 40 Man yet, but Hardin has looked impressive since getting promoted to AAA and could be better than any arm(s) we acquire at the deadline.

No series of moves the Brewers make between now and the postseason will allow them to surpass the Dodgers, they may be able to buttress their position somewhat but they aren't getting close on paper (or a computer screen to keep it contemporaneous) no matter what happens.

Posted
12 hours ago, willie key said:

Yelich only has five homers?   For some reason I thought he had a few more than that

He also has not played in 31 games this season I believe. 

Posted
3 hours ago, formerlybis said:

Those are the facts, but, subjectively, it doesn't seem wrong to be concerned about the rotation after the top 2 when it seems they often struggle to get through 5 innings. The pen has been good and probably is the reason why the sterling record exists, but they cover a lot of innings. We'll see how Woodruff does - seems risky to rely on him to be the answer, but he deserves a shot.  

You are getting to what I think is a key point. 
 
First, to be clear, the concern I have been raising is not about the rest of the season, but just the period between now and the All Star break. So much can happen between now and the end of the season (including players returning from injuries, new injuries, deadline pickups, etc.) that it’s hard for me to think that far ahead.

I have to question the relevance of some of the season to date stats about games started by pitchers other than Misiorowski and Harrison. Those numbers include starts made by pitchers now on the IL (Woodruff, Henderson, and Crow) and Patrick, who is no longer starting.. After last night we can’t be sure about Sproat’s status either. 

The other big factor is that a lot of the games won with the other starting pitchers involved a lot of help from the bullpen, including multiple inning stints from Ashby, Patrick, Hall, and Drohan. With Hall on the IL and Drohan starting the long relief corps has been weakened.

I know now that Woodruff will be starting a game next week, so maybe he will help. He still has to be considered a question mark.

Then there is the important fact that the Brewers are just starting a stretch of 27 games in 27 days, with just one off day. For the first two months of the season the Brewers had an off day every week, meaning fewer starting pitchers needed and more opportunities to reset the bullpen.

Maybe I’m signaling a false alarm, but the pitching staff is going to be tested in a way that it hasn’t been tested before this season. Today’s game is a good example, with both Ashby and Patrick likely unavailable. It would help if the offense could put up 5 or more runs again  

1 hour ago, liveforoctober said:
Note: If I raise something as a POSSIBILITY that does not mean that I EXPECT it to happen.

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