Recent Brewers Teams pre-ASB and post-ASB

[sveumrules]

With the All Star Break upon us, thought now might be as good a time as any to see how some recent Brewers teams have performed before the All Star Break versus after it...

2023 pre-ASB (1.0 Game Back in NLC)
49 W - 42 L (.538 W%)
384 RS | 397 RA | -0.14 R/G
89 wRC+ | 95 ERA- | 102 FIP-
2023 post-ASB (Win Division by 9.0 G)
43 W - 28 L (.606 W%)
344 RS | 250 RA | +1.32 R/G
98 wRC+ | 75 ERA- | 88 FIP-

2024 pre-ASB (4.5 Games Ahead in NLC)
55 W - 42 L (.567 W%)
466 RS | 387 RA | +0.81 R/G
107 wRC+ | 93 ERA- | 106 FIP-
2024 post-ASB (Win Division by 10.0 G)
38 W - 27 L (.585 W%)
311 RS | 254 RA | +0.85 R/G
101 wRC+ | 83 ERA- | 98 FIP-

2025 pre-ASB (1.0 Game Ahead in NLC)
56 W - 40 L (.583 W%)
457 RS | 376 RA | +0.84 R/G
99 wRC+ | 88 ERA- | 96 FIP-
2025 post-ASB (Win Division by 5.0 G)
41 W - 25 L (.621 W%)
349 RS | 258 RA | +1.38 R/G
118 wRC+ | 83 ERA- | 92 FIP-

2026 pre-ASB (5.0 Games Ahead in NLC)
59 W - 37 L (.615 W%)
489 RS | 363 RA | +1.31 R/G
105 wRC+ | 83 ERA- | 85 FIP-
2026 post-ASB
????????????????????

So over the last three years the Brewers have kicked it up post-ASB to the tune of a .604 W% versus a .563 W% pre-ASB.

Between the pitching injuries and already starting from the highest baseline at a .615 W% so far this year, I'd be pretty surprised if the Brewers were able to increase their winning percentage post-ASB for the fourth consecutive season. 

Then again, 41 W - 25 L for the second straight year would barely qualify at a .621 W% and get them to the first 100 Win season in franchise history.

Also pretty wild they have posted a run differential of at least +0.80 per game ever since the 2023 All Star Break, which implies something like a .600 W%. If they played at that pace rest of season they would end up around 98 wins.

FanGraphs Depth Charts currently projects a +0.27 per game run differential rest of season. PECOTA has them at 778 DC RS and 631 DC RA full season which leaves 289 RS and 268 RA from here on out, or a +0.32 per game run differential rest of season.

[igor67]

Impressive that all 4 years they pitched better after the break, and in 3 of the 4 years they hit better.

[sveumrules]

11 minutes ago, igor67 said:

Impressive that all 4 years they pitched better after the break, and in 3 of the 4 years they hit better.

Yeah, between how good they have pitched already plus all the injuries will probably be hard for them to improve much there after the break.

Feels like it will be more of a question of how much they can stave off the inevitable regression while also trying to keep their best pitchers healthy for the postseason. 

[igor67]

I would tend to agree that with how good the pitching has already been getting better is a tall order. However the pattern of improvement suggests they do have some secret to improvement. If you just assume it's pure luck which half is better there is only a 3.5% chance of having 7 or more better second halves (counting hitting and pitching separate). (Binomial probability model)

[wiguy94]

11 minutes ago, igor67 said:

I would tend to agree that with how good the pitching has already been getting better is a tall order. However the pattern of improvement suggests they do have some secret to improvement. If you just assume it's pure luck which half is better there is only a 3.5% chance of having 7 or more better second halves (counting hitting and pitching separate). (Binomial probability model)

I imagine some of this getting better stuff is that you're still feeling out the roster and roles in the first half while in the second half you're not only adding at the trade deadline but also more likely to have guys in more defined roles. Improvement on the pitching side might be tough to see but if Sproat and say Drohan shift into the bullpen with a SP addition or two at the deadline you could see the pitching overall take a step forward.

Misiorowski, Harrison, Henderson, Drohan, Sproat to Misiorowski, Harrison, Henderson, Trade, Trade. Just getting Sproat and his 123 ERA- and 120 FIP- out of the rotation could improve the rotation and then you have Sproat who has a 3.11 ERA and 4.00 FIP first time through the order in the bullpen where he would be an upgrade over the Woodford/Anderson part of the pen. Drohan's 2.95 ERA and 3.26 FIP first time through the order would be an upgrade over what our second best LHP in the pen has been giving us this year.

[thebruce44]

2 hours ago, igor67 said:

Impressive that all 4 years they pitched better after the break, and in 3 of the 4 years they hit better.

I feel like that has to be because of infusion of young talent within the season and our tendency to let "established" guys stink it up a bit too long in the first half. This year, I think we will see improvements with the offense and RP, but not as confident on the SP.

[cragi]

26 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I imagine some of this getting better stuff is that you're still feeling out the roster and roles in the first half while in the second half you're not only adding at the trade deadline but also more likely to have guys in more defined roles. Improvement on the pitching side might be tough to see but if Sproat and say Drohan shift into the bullpen with a SP addition or two at the deadline you could see the pitching overall take a step forward.

Misiorowski, Harrison, Henderson, Drohan, Sproat to Misiorowski, Harrison, Henderson, Trade, Trade. Just getting Sproat and his 123 ERA- and 120 FIP- out of the rotation could improve the rotation and then you have Sproat who has a 3.11 ERA and 4.00 FIP first time through the order in the bullpen where he would be an upgrade over the Woodford/Anderson part of the pen. Drohan's 2.95 ERA and 3.26 FIP first time through the order would be an upgrade over what our second best LHP in the pen has been giving us this year.

exactly my thinking. dont really need a bullpen arm, need another anchor that shifts all the other good pieces around

[wiguy94]

30 minutes ago, cragi said:

exactly my thinking. dont really need a bullpen arm, need another anchor that shifts all the other good pieces around

I'd like one more leverage arm in the pen preferably a LHP or a RHP with more neutral splits like Megill. I just don't trust Ashby in high leverage. He's been poor in leverage this year and he's been horrible when the lights are brightest in postseason. But I think the Brewers do have plenty of arms to make things interesting in the pen with a more pitching chaos type strategy.

[endaround]

Notice you didn't include the 2022 complete collapse.

[torts]

2022?  Whats that

[BruisedCrew]

16 hours ago, igor67 said:

Impressive that all 4 years they pitched better after the break, and in 3 of the 4 years they hit better.

There are only “after” results for 3 years unless you have information about how 2026 turns out.

Does the trend for the last month before the break give any clues about what came after?

[sveumrules]

13 hours ago, endaround said:

Notice you didn't include the 2022 complete collapse.

Luckily the POBO who presided over that has moved onto bluer and oranger pastures.

But sure, let's see how Stearns full season teams from 2018 to 2022 stacked up with the versions we have seen for the last three plus seasons now since Arnold took over...

2018 pre-ASB (2.5 Games Back in NLC)
55 W - 43 L (.561 W%)
426 RS | 377 RA | +0.50 R/G
99 wRC+ | 90 ERA- | 99 FIP-
2018 post-ASB (Win Division in Game 163)
41 W - 24 L (.631 W%)
328 RS | 282 RA | +0.65 R/G
114 wRC+ | 95 ERA- | 98 FIP-

2019 pre-ASB (0.5 Games Back in NLC)
47 W - 44 L (.516 W%)
432 RS | 449 RA | -0.19 R/G
102 wRC+ | 104 ERA- | 98 FIP-
2019 post-ASB (Get The 2nd Wild Card)
42 W - 29 L (.592 W%)
337 RS | 317 RA | +0.28 R/G
102 wRC+ | 93 ERA- | 103 FIP-

2021 pre-ASB (4.0 Games Ahead in NLC)
53 W - 39 L (.576 W%)
394 RS | 348 RA | +0.50 R/G
93 wRC+ | 82 ERA- | 88 FIP-
2021 post-ASB (Win Division by 5.0 G)
42 W - 28 L (.583 W%)
344 RS | 275 RA | +0.99 R/G 
104 wRC+ | 85 ERA- | 86 FIP-

2022 pre-ASB (0.5 Game Ahead in NLC)
50 W - 43 L (.538 W%)
417 RS | 392 RA | +0.27 R/G
103 wRC+ | 95 ERA- | 96 FIP-
2022 post-ASB (2.0 Games Back from WC3)
36 W - 33 L (.522 W%)
308 RS | 296 RA | +0.17 R/G
104 wRC+ | 94 ERA- | 100 FIP-

The "collapse" of the 2022 team had a lot more to do with the Cardinals going from a .532 W% pre-ASB to a .633 W% post-ASB than it did with the Brewers dropping .016 W% after the break. Had MIL maintained their first half W% it would have garnered them one extra win and they would have lost out on WC3 via head to head tiebreaker instead.

The 2022 "collapse" really happened when Hader lost it...

thru 6/6/2022
33 W - 23 L (.589 W%)
Hader (17.2 IP of 0.00 ERA | 0.96 FIP)
6/7/2022 to 7/29/2022
23 W - 21 L (.523 W%)
Hader (16.1 IP of 8.82 ERA | 6.17 FIP)
after trade 
33 W - 29 L (.532 W%)

Putting all those together does a pretty good job of illustrating how much the talent level has been increasing across the board over time though. Current iteration has six straight "halves" with at least a +0.80 R/G differential (and three of those over +1.30 R/G) while the 2018 to 2022 iterations only cracked that barrier one time in eight "halves".

Or, just the straight up macro...

2018-22 Stearns/Counsell
395 W - 314 L (.557 W% | 6th)
3233 RS | 3000 RA | +0.33 R/G
101 wRC+ | 92 ERA- | 95 FIP-

2023-24 Transition Period
185 W - 139 L (.571 W% | t-4th)
1505 RS | 1288 RA | +0.67 R/G
99 wRC+ | 88 ERA- | 99 FIP-

2025-present Arnold/Murphy
156 W - 102 L (.605 W% | 1st)
1295 RS | 997 RA | +1.16 R/G
106 wRC+ | 85 ERA- | 91 FIP-